Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Time Kibitzer

Members
  • Content Count

    6,376
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

106 Excellent

About Time Kibitzer

  • Rank
    Footballguy

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Parts Unknown

Previous Fields

  • Favorite NFL Team
    Seattle Seahawks

Recent Profile Visitors

11,307 profile views
  1. Doesn't matter what he runs at the combine imo, dude literally has highlight after highlight of him running away from defenders, he's damn fast with the pads on and that's all that matters imo. But I agree, if I had to guess he'll run sub 4.5, but the draftnik community has been slow to warm to Coleman so they're probably just slow to pay attention to his 40 time as well.
  2. That just depends. I don't regret drafting Luck in all my devy leagues after his RS freshman season, when his stats didn't necessarily warrant the selection. That's a best case scenario though. Once or twice per decade. Most picks aren't going to work out that well. In shallow one round dev leagues, I almost always spend my picks on a RB or WR. These positions are mainly about physical talent. If a guy has NFL caliber physical traits and all of the basic position-specific skills, he's probably going to end up being a pretty good prospect. Physical ability is important for QBs, but probably not to the same extent. I think NFL success is more about the mental skills and intangibles, which are hard to gather from a stat sheet. I didn't watch many of Hack's complete games last season, but I was definitely intrigued based on his 5* reputation out of high school and his early statistical success. I haven't watched any games of his this year and have no opinion on why he's regressing. One thing I will say is that he's not a Luck level athlete. Doesn't have anywhere near the mobility and evasiveness. He seems to be shaded more towards Bradford or Foles. Pure pocket guy. That could make him easier to defend, but doesn't really explain why he isn't dominating in college. I sort of buy the OL excuse because that's an important variable, but at the end of the day I always expect an NFL caliber QB to carve up college defenses. It's shooting fish in a barrel for players with that kind of ability, even if their OL is shoddy. So for me I'd be pretty worried about Hackenberg's consistent struggles this year. It doesn't mean he can't bounce back, but it throws up a big red flag. I'm pretty sure I've written my thoughts on this subject on these forums before, but I think the stat sheet is arguably more important for QBs than any other position. Having great college stats definitely isn't a guarantee of future success in the NFL, but I see it as basically a minimum requirement; much moreso than for RBs, WRs, and TEs. Almost all QBs drafted in the early rounds who had a poor CMP% and/or a poor YPA in college ended up disappointing in the NFL. Boller, Freeman, Gabbert, Ponder, Locker, Glennon, and Logan Thomas from this past draft are some names that come to mind at the moment. If Hackenberg has a 65% CMP%, 9.0 YPA, 3.0 TD/INT ratio next season I'll change my tune immediately, but at the moment despite his 'success' last year his stat sheet suggests NFL success is far from an inevitably for him, which is the same thing I was saying about him at the end of last season when he was being hyped as the inevitable #1 pick when he declares. Hackenberg doesn't look much different statistically than these two guys I've compared him to. Can you tell which one he is? These numbers are after their Sophomore seasons. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B3V0yJsCAAACMPD.jpg One of them went #1 overall and the other went #11. I'd guess he's the one with the ####ty stats but all of them have ####ty stats.
  3. That just depends. I don't regret drafting Luck in all my devy leagues after his RS freshman season, when his stats didn't necessarily warrant the selection. That's a best case scenario though. Once or twice per decade. Most picks aren't going to work out that well. In shallow one round dev leagues, I almost always spend my picks on a RB or WR. These positions are mainly about physical talent. If a guy has NFL caliber physical traits and all of the basic position-specific skills, he's probably going to end up being a pretty good prospect. Physical ability is important for QBs, but probably not to the same extent. I think NFL success is more about the mental skills and intangibles, which are hard to gather from a stat sheet. I didn't watch many of Hack's complete games last season, but I was definitely intrigued based on his 5* reputation out of high school and his early statistical success. I haven't watched any games of his this year and have no opinion on why he's regressing. One thing I will say is that he's not a Luck level athlete. Doesn't have anywhere near the mobility and evasiveness. He seems to be shaded more towards Bradford or Foles. Pure pocket guy. That could make him easier to defend, but doesn't really explain why he isn't dominating in college. I sort of buy the OL excuse because that's an important variable, but at the end of the day I always expect an NFL caliber QB to carve up college defenses. It's shooting fish in a barrel for players with that kind of ability, even if their OL is shoddy. So for me I'd be pretty worried about Hackenberg's consistent struggles this year. It doesn't mean he can't bounce back, but it throws up a big red flag. I'm pretty sure I've written my thoughts on this subject on these forums before, but I think the stat sheet is arguably more important for QBs than any other position. Having great college stats definitely isn't a guarantee of future success in the NFL, but I see it as basically a minimum requirement; much moreso than for RBs, WRs, and TEs. Almost all QBs drafted in the early rounds who had a poor CMP% and/or a poor YPA in college ended up disappointing in the NFL. Boller, Freeman, Gabbert, Ponder, Locker, Glennon, and Logan Thomas from this past draft are some names that come to mind at the moment. If Hackenberg has a 65% CMP%, 9.0 YPA, 3.0 TD/INT ratio next season I'll change my tune immediately, but at the moment despite his 'success' last year his stat sheet suggests NFL success is far from an inevitably for him, which is the same thing I was saying about him at the end of last season when he was being hyped as the inevitable #1 pick when he declares.
  4. That's a lot less true these days than just several years ago. And usually it takes more than statistical mediocrity to get as much hype as he's had, even for a true freshman. Here are the last 19 first round QBs and their true freshman performance. Bortles - Redshirted. Manziel - Redshirted. Bridgewater - 64.5%, 7.2 YPA, 1.17 TD : INT Manuel - 65.1%, 7.7 YPA, 0.33 TD : INT Luck - Redshirted. RGIII - 59.9%, 7.8 YPA, 5.00 TD : INT Tannehill - Redshirted. Weeden - Redshirted. Newton - Played sparingly (12 pass attempts in first two seasons). Locker - 47.3%, 6.3 YPA, 0.93 TD : INT Gabbert - Played sparingly (13 pass attempts as a freshman). Ponder - Played sparingly (18 pass attempts as a freshman). Bradford - Redshirted. Tebow - Played sparingly (33 pass attempts as a freshman). Stafford - 52.7%, 6.8 YPA, 0.54 TD : INT Sanchez - Redshirted. Freeman - 51.9%, 6.6 YPA, 0.4 TD : INT Ryan - Redshirted. Flacco - Played sparingly (4 pass attempts as a freshman). So among all the recent elite QB prospects: - 68.4% either redshirted or played sparingly in their first year out of high school. - Of the few who received extensive playing time, the averages were: 56.9% completions, 7.1 YPA, 1.40 TD : INT (completely skewed by RG III's outlier). All that being the case, there's a very strong argument that Hackenberg's true freshman season of 58.9% completions, 7.5 YPA, and 2.00 TD : INT was actually far ahead of the performance curve even compared with eventual elite prospects at the position. Most first round QBs did not even play significant minutes as true freshmen. Of those who did, only RGIII had arguably better numbers than Hackenberg, and he did that as a dual threat on 267 pass attempts whereas Hackenberg had 392 pass attempts and presented no running threat. So there's absolutely nothing wrong with Hackenberg being hyped after a year like that. In fact, he absolutely SHOULD have been hyped after a year like that. What's happened since then is a different story... Guess I was wrong, I didn't realize all those guys' freshman seasons were following redshirt seasons. Still, I think it's ill-advised to treat a QB as an elite prospect before they put up an elite statistical season.
  5. That's a lot less true these days than just several years ago. And usually it takes more than statistical mediocrity to get as much hype as he's had, even for a true freshman.
  6. Eh, not sure I completely agree with Rotoworld there on Hackenberg. The OLine is definately the main issue. They were absolutely terrible for most of the season. Hack has some mobility but he's really a pocket QB and with no pocket and no running game due to terrible blocking, he got killed. Now, the last couple of games were against lesser defenses and the line got an injured Sr OG back and looked better. The running game was better as well. But Hackenberg still played a bit afraid and didn't stride into throws or trust his reads. Next year there will be more bodies and everyone will be more experienced, so I expect him to have a better year. But he still doesn't fit Franklin's offense very well. So the question is whether NFL teams think they can get him back to where he was last year, as an outstanding pro style QB, or whether he has been David Carr level ruined from all the abuse this season. He wasn't great last year either imo, definitely overrated. 59% CMP%, 7.54 YPA, 2/1 TD/INT ratio, those numbers certainly didn't scream NFL prospect.
  7. I appreciate the arts more than most, but I'd have to agree Rothko is pretty much the worst.
  8. Tevin Coleman seems like a safe bet for the 2nd round at worst imo. And it's not uncommon for RBs to end up in the 2nd after a good combine who weren't projected to do so at this stage.
  9. The worst part about it is it doesn't even matter imo. He's not going to be blocking in the NFL no matter what "position" he plays. It'd be nice if he's considered a TE simply because of less competition at the position in fantasy, but besides that it's not a big deal either way imo.
  10. This was a great article. Thanks for all you do Faust. Very nice article but I don't see Jeffery with White. Not sure who I see just yet but Jeffery isn't the guy. He's more athletic than Jeffery and not nearly as big.Yea, White doesn't look 6'3". Might be closer to 6'1". I agree with that. He doesn't really strike me as a "big" receiver. I think his best traits are his initial quickness and his economical route running. He loses very little momentum when cutting and can explode out of his breaks. There is no direct parallel for him in the NFL. If I was forced to make one, I would say he's a bigger, more athletic Cecil Shorts. They move and play similarly. White has more height and jump ball ability. I think he's probably a mid-late first at best and not a candidate for the top 10 because he lacks elite height and track speed, but we will have to wait and see. Cecil Shorts has some decent YAC and make-you-miss ability, I don't see that in White. White basically just turns up field and runs fast when he gets the ball, not that that's terrible. I'd say he reminds me of a faster/more athletic DeAndre Hopkins. Though I agree, no chance he's a top 10 pick kinda guy, mid-late first sounds about right.
  11. I'd be bolding Josh Robinson and Alex Collins as notables. Both are looking good, putting up great numbers in the SEC, and have NFL bellcow size.
  12. Travis Rudolph WR for Florida State looks like a player. Starting to get some real playing time now as a true freshman, and his YAC ability is pretty obvious. Looks skinny though, and he might not have the frame to max out over 210lbs at 6'2, but definitely still someone to keep an eye on.
  13. Chubb looks phenomenal. I wouldn't disagree that he's a better prospect than Gurley. Though Gurley's proven to be an asset in the passing game whereas Chubb hasn't proven that, but he's still got 2 years after this one to prove that.
  14. The scoop: "(Devin Funchess) is playing wide receiver this year, but he's the poster child for this era's tight end in the NFL." -- retired NFL front-office executiveThe skinny: This is the second time the Michigan receiver has been mentioned in this space. Two weeks ago, an NFC personnel executive assigned Funchess a Jimmy Graham comp and said he preferred the wideout as a tight end at the next level. That seems to be a growing consensus among NFL scouts. At 6-foot-5 and 230 pounds, he certainly has the body of an NFL tight end. This debate isn't going away. Total buffoonery by analysts. How many 6-5, 230 TEs are there? How many 6-5, 230 WRs are there? Calvin Johnson and Vincent Jackson were 239 and 241 respectively at the combine. I guess they have tight end bodies as well. I don't think you're reading the article very well. They are getting the information from team sources, not analysts. There are plenty of guys at that size playing both positions. Hence the debate and tweener divide. Jackson and Johnson don't move like guys there size, never have. Funchess doesn't move like them.Whoever it is, point still stands. Funchess most certainly moves like a WR. Show me a 230-lb TE that moves like Funchess. There was a 235-lb WR who ran a 4.65 40 in the 2014 draft who was converted to TE during minicamp. Funchess definitely moves a lot better than him and is more explosive. I think you're looking at this from the wrong perspective. From a strictly fantasy point of view, it's better off if Funchess is considered a TE. Regardless of whether he's considered a TE or WR he's likely only going to be running routes in the NFL and will do little blocking, so from our perspective it's better if he's considered a "TE" simply because there's less competition for fantasy dominance at that position. If he's listed as a TE in MFL or wherever else it will increase his fantasy value by quite a bit.