FF Ninja

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About FF Ninja

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  1. I agree about the Kelce comp. I wasn't feeling it last year solely due to targets. I love Kelce's talent, but a guy needs more than 100 targets to be worth a top 5 TE pick. I'm seeing Ertz listed as TE9 on the FBG composite ADP, which really seems pretty reasonable. If he's somehow in line for 120+ targets then sign me up for the bandwagon, but I really have no clue how the targets will be divvied up in Philly (although the Reid system has never heavily featured a single TE - especially not to a tune of 90 recs). I could see 120 targets happening, but I could also see him merely performing on par with his ADP or even being outdone by someone drafted much later who lands a surprising target load (maybe Dwayne Allen) or a high volume of TDs (maybe Jared Cook or Martellus Bennett). At TE, I'd rather pay a slight premium for Fleener (target hog) or Eifert (better, proven talent) over Ertz OR take a late round shotgun approach with some of the guys I just mentioned.
  2. Like I mentioned, Decker missed a game and played hurt last year and still finished as low-end fantasy WR1, so I'm not sure we share the same idea of limited ceiling when talking about a WR going 57th overall on average (mid-5th round). As WR27, I'd think a top 10 upside is pretty awesome. Crabtree is going 84th overall. I don't know what kind of upside you expect out of a guy being drafted as a WR4, but I think he's got easy WR2 upside and no worse than a WR3 floor (assuming health, of course). If you're expecting WR1 upside that late, I don't know what to tell you. If you know of someone with that kind of upside in that range, you should've included him in that list. If you don't know anyone that can be had that late with WR1 upside then you might consider that WR2 upside is actually pretty good at that point.
  3. I don't get caught up in #1 vs. #2. I primarily look at targets. FF is a statistics game so volume wins. I'd rather have a #2 WR with 130 targets (with the added bonus of facing the #2 CB) than a #1 WR with 120 targets. This brings me to Crabtree as another value. His 2nd half targets dropped to 66 (from 80) and everyone thinks Cooper is going to explode, but I bet Crabtree still gets 120 target this year with plenty of red zone looks (13 targets last year to Cooper's 8). At WR37 right now, he's another great value play.
  4. And strangely I've seen Tate going for >$20 in auctions while Jones has been <$10. I like them both this year, but Jones has always been the value. Similarly, Decker has been going about $10 cheaper than Marshall. While I agree Marshall is a value compared to overrated guys like Hopkins, people forget that Decker missed a game last year and played injured for a few games after that. During the second half of the season, the target split was only 78 vs. 87. To me, Decker presents the most value with an ADP of 57 to Marshall's 20. This guy won't make anyone's top 5 value plays as his job will be to sit on the bench, but I love Gabbert as a $1/last round pick if you need someone to tandem with a top QB. According to the FBG ADP, he's sitting right at QB32. His numbers on a dysfunctional offense last year were surprisingly good given the circumstances. I think his athleticism will mesh well with Kelly.
  5. I feel obligated to point out that this quote from the article is nonsense. Tate is actually faster than Jones (although both are plenty fast). He simply wasn't asked to run deep routes when Calvin was healthy. Personally, I still think Tate has slightly better odds to produce the best numbers on this team, but I'll draft whichever one of them is cheaper. So far I've been landing Jones frequently, so I enjoyed this silly article.
  6. Ah, I had no idea about that. That's a shame. Oh well.
  7. Don't lose hope, blind bandwagoners! Science is coming to the rescue: http://www.wndu.com/content/news/Cartilage-from-fat-tissue-stem-cells-may-help-avoid-total-knee-replacements-388690662.html
  8. Just to add to your point, TWO different GMs tried to sign him to be their feature back: Chicago offered him $19M/4yr and Miami actually did sign him to $18M/4yr.
  9. Thread had been dormant for two months until you bumped it with this hot take.
  10. I'm sure you're an MFL expert compared to most after setting up all these leagues over the years, so I think as long as you've got some general rules and settings you would do a perfectly fine job. Here's a nice list of established rules and settings: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfaWszORLJMNFQtrBVcwC3VYusCzuXSYF9DygvYxbkKMplXnw/viewform?c=0&w=1
  11. Maybe it just me, but this thread seems redundant. I feel like it is another way of saying what this thread is about: https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/743698-who-are-you-down-with-compared-to-the-ff-community/
  12. I think I was in Anarchy 4 last year. I'm probably down, but depends on the draft time. I'm going to be out of pocket for a bit. But more importantly, you ever thought about making this a slow auction (maybe 3 noms/day, proxy bididng, 24 hour clock)? I think you should consider it because: 1) auctions are much more fun 2) might actually be faster 3) no need to constantly predraft (or be the one people are waiting on if you are evil and don't predraft) 4) no drama with slow drafters whose clock expires or with people drafting the wrong players and having to replace
  13. I'm not that familiar with JBC's offense, but how many targets Boldin gets will depend on his ability to get open, Stafford's trust, and primarily his actual role as the (assumed) WR3. Maybe JBC likes to use the third WR. I dunno. But at this point I'm guessing the WR3 won't see many targets, thus I'm guessing 60 is his ceiling without injury. I mean, think about it... how many teams give their WR3 more than 60 targets? If (1) nobody misses any games and (2) the WR1 and WR2 are clearly defined (some teams swap out their WR2 and WR3 depending on situation), the WR3 doesn't usually get more than 60. There are exceptions - teams that don't use the TE a lot or teams that throw the ball a ton, but last year Detroit threw the ball 632 times and the WR3 got 43 targets. Sure, maybe a 36 year old Boldin is better than a 32 year old Moore, but is he 50% better? I think JBC took over right around the mid point of the season, so I just looked up Moore's splits. He only had 11 targets in the 2nd half of the season. Either JBC didn't like Moore or he doesn't use the WR3 much.
  14. Sorry to jump in, but I'm kind of coming around on Gabbert myself so I think it is worth pointing out that SF was a mess last year. Chip turned Foles into a fantasy relevant QB and given what Gabbert was able to do last year, I think it is entirely possible Chip is able to squeeze some value out of Gabbert, too. There's no reason Gabbert can't turn his career around after a rocky start (similar to Alex Smith). So let's not write off SF as an offense just yet. I think Gabbert's athleticism could work well with this system and Torrey is a good fit here, also. ETA: Last year was obviously not good for Chip, but he did support two top 24 WRs in his previous two years. So five top 24 WRs in three years isn't so bad.
  15. This is spot on. Boldin is a nice talent and a great team player, but a signing this late (without any injuries or disruptions to the starters) indicates nothing more than depth. I love Boldin as a player, but I'll be surprised if he gets more than 60 targets without an injury to Tate, Jones, or Ebron.