FF Ninja

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  1. Personally, if I had Freeman, I'd have shopped him around for a better deal. I'm not saying it's a great trade, but it's not as bad as it looks. As for Rudolph, he was a former 2nd round pick who has been stuck blocking most of his career. He got a chance at age 26 to run some routes and he crushed it. He'll be back with the same QB next year. It would be foolish to expect him to revert back to 50 receptions in 2017.
  2. As a standalone statement, I fully agree with your logic about franchise QBs not changing teams, but Brees is super competitive so you know he wants a crack at a 2nd super bowl. He's 38 this year. Next year might be his last chance. If things don't improve tremendously in NO, I think he's gone. I mean, why else is he playing out his contract instead of extending it? Additionally, this could very well be Sean Payton's last chance in NO, too. Will a rebuilding team/new staff want to bring back an expensive 39 yo QB? Will Brees want to come back to a new coaching staff? Might as well just change teams at that point. Payton might convince him to follow him to his next team, too. I really think this particular case is no greater than 50/50 odds that he's back. Plus, he'll be 39 next year, so even if he's back in 2018, his play could deteriorate which would also hurt Thomas and Cooks. And like FreeBagel said, Thomas and Cooks aren't starting as high as Sanders and Thomas, so the drop off could bump them from fringe top 12 down to WR3 range. Crowder is 5'8" 185 lbs. Unless he turns into Steve Smith, I am going to bet against him being anything more than your typical slot WR. If Doctson doesn't step up, then I'm sure they'll find someone who will. Maybe nobody steps up in 2017, giving him one nice season, but I don't like his longterm outlook. You're scaring me a bit on Shepard, though. You're right that his polish was part of his appeal, but you don't expect him to improve at all? I read somewhere that he really struggled against press coverage. If he can improve that, maybe it'll help. His YPR did decrease in the 2nd half of the season. Maybe teams were starting to figure that out. Shepard was in the 78th percentile in college in terms of YPR (17.0). Crowder on the other hand was in the 18th percentil (12.3 YPR). I hear you about Ertz, but he's got a new OC and a new QB from his first 3 years. Things certainly looked headed in the right direction after a slow start (largely due to injury) and given his torrid PPR pace in the 2nd half, TDs would just be a bonus if that keeps up. And given the volatile and unpredictable nature of TDs, I can't say I fully understand the focus on them in the TE rankings, especially since these are PPR rankings. Given Dalton and Brady's use of Eifert and Gronk, I can understand projecting TDs for them, but I wouldn't use Henry's TDs as a predictor of future greatness. I'm not saying he won't be great, but what he did in a limited role as a TE2 doesn't sell me on him.
  3. Nah, I just think (1) Freeman is being overrated, (2) the likelihood of hitting on those picks is being overstated, (3) Shepard is being undervalued, and (4) the TE premium and Rudolph are being overlooked.
  4. MFL is finally working so I'll yammer on about my draft strategy for a bit, because offseason... QB4 4.02 - Wilson QB28 Cutler 10.02 QB33 Glennon 15.15 I don't like to go QB early, but I figured I could get the guys I wanted later, so I bit on Wilson. I expect him to be better in 2017 because he'll be healthy and the line can't be worse. Since I took one early, I took the 2nd late, but didn't feel great about Cutler so I also drafted Glennon. This better be a position of strength for me after that investment. RB23 Dixon 5.15 RB24 Crowell 6.02 RB33 Abdullah 7.15 RB54 Thompson 11.15 RB73 Ellington 19.15 I love this group, particularly the top 3. I think Dixon shoots into the top 12 next year, but even if I'm wrong and he's stuck in a RBBC, he'll be a great "best ball" format player. Crowell was RB14 on a terrible team which can't get worse (right?). Abdullah looked good before injury and he played all 16 as a rookie, so hopefully he doesn't become injury prone. Thompson is just a decent PPR filler RB in case someone ahead of him gets injured. Ellington is a talented FA. I think he'll start for me a few times as long as he finds a decent home (I'm hoping for SD). WR9 Keenan 1.15 WR11 AR15 2.02 WR45 Marvin 8.02 WR65 Wallace 12.02 WR87 T.Benjamin 17.15 WR101 Quick 20.02 Should be the core of my team, especially since I spent my first two picks on the position. I love Keenan in PPR and feel good about AR15 in best ball. In fact, I think WR2-6 are all great best ball players. I know Marvin fell off last year, but he was dealing with injuries and still put up 1000 yards in his 16 games (incl. playoff game). Wallace... I guess people expect them to bring in a FA or something. Not sure why I got him so cheap. He had a very nice connection with Flacco all year long. Benjamin will be fighting with Tyrell for targets, but should still be good for a few bombs. He also played injured last year. Quick is a FA, so hopefully signs with someone who can use him better than the Rams. TE7 Eifert 3.15 TE21 Doyle 9.15 I felt like both of these guys were steals. I considered, for a second, taking Eifert at 2.02. Had no hope he'd make it back to me at 3.15. Doyle overtook Dwayne Allen last year to finish around TE12 and he's coming back this year. Should get more than last year's 75 targets. Gano, Sturgis - two guys with safe jobs Car, Det - two decent D's Maybe I'm drinking the kool aid but I don't see a weakness on this team. But that's the problem with early drafts - the weaknesses show up during the preseason injury reports. If Keenan and Eifert repeat 2016, I'm screwed.
  5. At risk of basically repeating what FreeBagel said, not everything. There are only 4 variables. Rudolph, Shepard, Freeman, and picks. Like he said, you are overstating the picks (but that's common this time of year). I stand by my statement that the three picks have about a 35% chance of netting a worthwhile player (but they'll also cost you 3 roster spots to start the season). It's a TE premium league and Rudolph was once a relatively hot TE commodity, but people are acting like he's chopped liver here. He's only 27 and coming off an 83 catch season, going back to work with the same QB this year. Shepard was the 5th WR selected in the draft and had a nice rookie year. Even if he doesn't improve, he's not a throwaway. So you really should only view this as a horrid trade if you think Freeman will continue on like he did in 2016. Considering Matt Ryan just set an NFL record for YPA, nearly 2 yard above his career average, and his OC just left, I feel like betting on Freeman to continue is a worse bet than a regression. That offense is going to suffer regardless of if you believe in the super bowl hangover.
  6. Yeah, sorry, I probably shouldn't have even brought up DJ/Bell. It was a very minor quibble. As for Crowell and Duke, I agree they will limit each other this year to some extent (more on that in a sec), but I'd rank them higher due to it being dynasty rankings. Crowell will probably get tendered and be on the team for 1 more year (unless they make it a low tender and someone bites - unlikely), so that's not terrible enough to kill their dynasty value to me. And Duke really didn't hurt Crowell too much, as Crowell finished RB14 (iirc) last year in PPR. Things can't get worse in Cleveland, right? If things get even a little better, he's got top 10 upside. For the Duke vs. Riddick, I guess I see Duke as a potential lead back, whereas Riddick is clearly just a one trick pony (career ypc of 3.5) that could be rendered useless if Abdullah stays healthy. How can you project "a couple more WR1 seasons with Brees" when Brees has said he's going to play out his contract? He's an unrestricted FA in 2018. Plus, the drop for Sanders (6->18) and DT (4->13) was significant. Personally, I price this drop into my rankings for guys like Cooks, Thomas, and Davante. Sure, their trade value this year is still good to people who don't look ahead, but that means you'd have to flip them during the season. Planning on a half season rental doesn't equate to a lot of value to me because you never know for sure what the trade market will be like. So to beat around the bush of your question, first I don't feel good about Cooks and Thomas being top 15 for more than 1 year (if that), but you're right that top 30 seems feasible - however, I don't want to weigh that one season too heavily when thinking about the next 5+. I fully agree that Shepard's 2016 numbers aren't WR2 numbers. What I meant was that they were quite healthy numbers for a 2nd round rookie. I feel like a progression to WR2 numbers is likely and WR3 numbers are a near lock. I can't say the same about Hill with Maclin returning (just as I'd be concerned about Shepard if OBJ had missed time)... and Parker and Crowder already had their chance for a 2nd year breakout but both performed similarly in their 2nd year to Shepard's rookie year. As for age and polish, I didn't consider him an old rookie. A few months older than Coleman, over a year younger than Doctson. Treadwell was younger, but Shepard is younger than Parker and Crowder who entered a year earlier, so I think his age is in-line and his college breakout age was right around the 50th percentile. All he needs is a moderate bump (~10%) in targets and a higher YPR to make the leap to WR2. His red zone presence as a rookie (16 targets, 6 TDs) can only be seen as a positive. I feel least confident about my TE evaluations, so I don't want to make a strong stand on Henry. I just don't feel like there was a huge sample size (53 targets as the TE2) and there's quite a bit of hype about this year's class, so let's just say I'd have loved watching him get bid up. I'd gladly have settled for Eifert or Ertz, maybe snag one of 2017's rookies on the cheap next year (2018) after they fail to breakout, as TEs tend to do. Again, thanks so much for continuing to be one of FBG's more prolific dynasty rankers and for discussing them in the SP. Definitely helps pass the offseason!
  7. Is he actually slow? http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000158580/article/keenan-allen-clocks-471-in-40-mayock-doesnt-care He was coming off injury. Probably shouldn't have even run at his pro day. But either way, combine numbers have shown no correlation to WR success. Even if 40 time was really important, Boldin, who ran a 4.72, averaged over 13 YPR in seven seasons, his final one coming in at 13.9 at age 33. As for the ACL, you're right, he could pull a Jamaal Charles on us, but at this point of the season, I'm not going to rank him lower due to that unlikely outcome based on the lack of fluff pieces in February. Ah, poor Miles Austin. To me the case of Miles Austin was pretty clear - hamstring injuries are simply debilitating. You need them to run. I think he had major hamstring injuries every year for about 4-5 years. Keenan, however, had a lacerated kidney and an ACL. Neither of which are likely to recur.
  8. You suspect they'll draft a running back based on Harbaugh's quote about adding a game breaker? I took that to mean they'd draft a Dri Archer type guy, but I guess time will tell. You're right that West is a RFA and I'd bet the farm he'll be back next year, but I still expect Dixon to get the largest share of the work. West did better than any of us expected, so I gotta hand it to him there. But he still barely managed 4 ypc which was actually a career high. He shouldn't pose a significant threat to a healthy Dixon. Which brings me to my next point... To ding Dixon for his performance is to ignore context. He was coming off a preseason knee injury which required him to wear a brace and visibly slowed him down. Have a quick glance at his splits. He missed 4 games and in his first 4 games he averaged 1.5 YPC and 1.2 YPR. Over his last 8 games he averaged 4.9 YPC and 6.2 YPR. Over his last 6 games (his snap count was pretty low for his first 6 games) he averaged 10.2 carries and 4.5 targets. That alone should be enough to make him fantasy startable even if his role doesn't continue to increase. You're right about draft position - I didn't realize how close they were drafted together. I guess I just view Perkins as a JAG and was more impressed with Dixon's college dominator rating and target share. But I've got to disagree that receiving alone was supposed to be Dixon's calling card. Dixon appeals to me because he's got 3 down back potential. Everything is his calling card. Short yardage, receiving, blocking.. I expect him to showcase it all next year and make it difficult for the staff to take him off the field. The Allen thing... He was pretty clearly a JAG, at least as a runner. If you realize you are rating Dixon based on Allen, I guess that's the first step to correcting the problem, right?
  9. Um... unless you are correct. Those things I listed are not stretches. I think Shepard's progression and Rudolph's continuation are highly probable. The thing that will make or break this trade is how Freeman does without Shanahan, so really it was more about personal preference on Freeman. He had two years at <= 4.0 ypc and one year at 4.8 ypc. If you owned him and expect his stats to crash in year 4 and wanted to cash out, maybe you take the best deal you can find. An up and coming WR and 27 yo TE coming off an 83 rec season in a 1.5 TEPPR league might've been the best he could find. We also don't know how bad he was hurting at TE or how stacked he was at RB, so I'm not going to call this a "horrid" trade.
  10. Yeah, I meant to bring up the 1.5 TE premium that seems to be getting ignored. And with TB appearing to be out another year, Captain Checkdown will almost certainly be chucking the rock to Rudolph again.
  11. Yes, it's horrid IF the status quo continues which would require Freeman to not miss a beat under a new OC and for Shepard to make no progress. There are ifs on both sides. Betting on the status quo has proven to be a shaky bet historically.
  12. This is a good question. My own (possibly faulty) memory was that he admitted he wasn't very dedicated or in shape or something after his rookie season, but put in extra work after his 2nd season which appeared to pay off as he looked rather dominant in his 3rd season. By all accounts he continued this work ethic going into his 4th season. We only got a glimpse, but 6 receptions in 27 snaps was quite a tease.
  13. TDs are a highly volatile stat, plus Arizona had WR and pass protection troubles. I expect DJ's targets to take a hit next year. Like you said, it's a thin line, but I'm not using "most TDs last year" as the tie breaker. The fact Bell has three seasons in a row of 4.7 ypc or better is a good enough tie breaker for me.
  14. Good post. I don't really disagree with any particular line of logic. However, I do think you're overstating Lynn as an OC. The guy was never hired as an OC. He was promoted as the result of a mid-season firing, so he doesn't even have a full season under his belt. I wouldn't go looking for patterns in that. I think Williams and Benjamin can help open things up for Keenan and the offense as a whole. They'll be competing with each other to stay on the field for 2WR sets, but neither is in competition with Keenan to make this a 1a/1b situation. So bottom line, it isn't uncommon for a WR1 to get a 25%+ target load and that's all he needs to get to 100 receptions. You make a case that SD could decrease passing attempts, but they ranked 15/32 last year and they have one of the better QBs in the league. I don't think it's realistic to expect them to drop down that ranking very much. If the OL improves then maybe Rivers' performance improves. Woodhead has never been a very good runner and Gordon has yet to (1) finish a season healthy (2) crack 4.0 ypc. The lack of a legit running game has only made the job harder for Rivers and his WRs. A balance would be good for everyone. The thing is that I don't think anybody is expecting 12 targets/game for Keenan. We all expect those things to collectively reduce his target load, but what I'm saying is that even reducing it down 25% to 9 per game is still going to result in huge numbers for Keenan. Probably top 5 PPR numbers. Which brings me to the fact that you did say 144 seems unlikely, but you don't really back that up. You certainly make a case for why he won't get as many as before (89 in 7.5 games in 2015, 6 in 0.5 games in 2016) but you don't really say why 144 isn't possible. 192 certainly seems unlikely, but 144 seems quite doable. He was on pace for right around 144 in 2014 (121 through 13.5 games) when Floyd, Royal, and Gates were all present and healthy for every game. Rivers threw 570 passes that year which is a very reasonable amount. By all accounts Keenan had made some strides in the offseason between 2014 and 2015, so I think 2014 is a decent floor for targets.
  15. If Shepard takes a step in his 2nd year (after a nice rookie season), Rudolph repeats 90% of 2016, and Freeman takes a step back without his OC (such as 4 ypc & half the TDs), this is one of those trades that could look pretty damn good in 8 months after getting ripped apart in the offseason. Especially if the other team strikes out on those 3 picks (odds of finding a good fantasy player with just one of those three picks is probably like 35%).