FF Ninja

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  1. If I'm doing a startup, I'm throwing some bids out on these fellas (some random consensus rankings in parenthesis): (9) Njoku (15) Doyle - likely cheaper after Ebron signing (16) Hooper (17) Eifert (18) Burton (19) Kittle (23) Everett I'm sure rankings will vary wildly from site to site. If Kittle is ranked 8 in some places, I'm sure I won't land him and I'm fine with that. If I had enough roster spots, I wouldn't let Howard go too cheaply. I still like him, but that TEBC scares me. But most of those guys listed has their warts. I'm just betting that if I grab 3-4 of them that one of them will beat the odds and shine in 2018. Higbee is holding Everett back, but the current staff is the one that drafted Everett. I wouldn't be surprised if they unleash him this year or next.
  2. I'm not super high on Kittle. Was just saying that almost losing his job doesn't really matter at this point because there isn't anybody left in free agency to threaten his job. Even if the 49ers take a TE at the end of the 2nd round or in the 3rd round, I doubt they pose a big threat to him this year. So he could Brate his way into staying fantasy relevant (plays well enough this year to hold off the higher drafted player next year). I wouldn't go after him hard in a startup. I'd make sure to bid him up to close to his AAV, but I wouldn't get in a bidding war for him. There are a lot of intriguing, relatively cheap TEs... if I bid on all of them, I'm sure one or two of them will come to me cheaply. For example, Hooper is actually younger than Kittle.
  3. Doesn't really matter now, because there are no notable TEs left in free agency. Kittle may have come close to losing his job... but he didn't. So now he's in a prime situation. 2nd year TE returning to the same offense. Can't say his 5 games with JG were that exciting, but for a rookie TE they weren't terrible. Those 5 games would project out to 48/717/3. His actual full season numbers of 43/515/2 were not bad for a rookie 5th rounder. I only checked Howard, Njoku, and Everett but I'm assuming he finished 2nd in rookie TE scoring last year. https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/george-kittle/
  4. I'd have placed Kittle between Eifert and ASJ on my list. His age, athleticism, and situation are ideal.
  5. I still like Lockett at least as much as Anderson. I didn't think Seattle was a bad fit at all, but I think potentially being the WR1 on the Jets could end up being better.
  6. Really? I know Wilson is a better QB, but Baldwin is the WR1 there and I think Lockett is better than any WR currently on the Jets, so Pryor's market share on the Jets should be better than it would've been in Seattle. If I was a Pryor owner, I'd be ok with this.
  7. I see most of these guys as TE2 types with low TE1 upside (in their current situations), which means they might squeak into the top 12, but you're ceding points to most of your opponents on a week-to-week basis. They are all young enough and with enough upside that I wouldn't mind stashing them as a backup for a couple years and hoping their situations improve. Eifert (27.6) - pedigree and production with a large side of injury prone. He wasn't just a lucky red zone guy. His catches were very impressive and his routes were crisp. He's supposedly 100% healthy and still with the same QB. He's the only one that I'd actually consider a top 10 TE lock while healthy with a probable top 5 TE finish... again, if healthy. It's easy to forget how good he is when you haven't seen it for a year. His 7 game stretch in 2016 was a 64/880/11 pace. Nobody below him has that upside. And he's dirt cheap. I haven't done a startup this year, but I've gotten him cheaply in a couple best ball redrafts already. ASJ (25.5) - once the 2.06 pick of the short lived Lovie Smith regime, he's the 2nd youngest player on this list and appears to have the TE position to himself, but so many mouths to feed in JAX. I know none of them stand out, but at least two of Moncrief, Lee, Cole, and Westbrook will probably turn out to be plus NFL players and there's just not that much production from the JAX passing game. Burton (26.4) - we have to assume the new staff brought him in for a reason. He's only 1 year younger than Eifert and unproven, although he looked very good in a game or two spelling Ertz. Shaheen will be lurking, though. If he lives up to his potential, he could be better than Burton. Brate (26.7) - nice, unexpected contract extension and proven chemistry with Winston, but OJ Howard is extremely talented, too. I expect this to be a TEBC from week 1 forward. Howard is good enough to make the Bucs regret this extension in a year or two... but that doesn't mean Brate isn't a pretty good receiver. If he didn't have Howard around, I'd rank him higher. Ebron (25.0) - I remember doing quite a bit of reading about him a year ago when thinking about buying. He had an upward career trajectory back then but was still cheap due to the lack of TDs. I can't remember exactly, but what I think turned me off (to the point where all I remember is "do not draft, do not trade for") was that he's just soft. Not a very good blocker and can't catch contested passes. Hell, he likes to drop uncontested catches, too. When it comes to receiving, he's like the anti-Eifert. By that I mean, I don't think his lack of TDs is due to bad luck. It's due to bad hands and being soft in traffic. I know he's the youngest guy on this list and with the best draft pedigree (1.10), but he's been in a good offense with a good QB and been the de facto starter there every year and just couldn't get it done. Last year was a huge step backwards. Additionally, Doyle has great chemistry with Luck and Swoope has some intriguing upside. Being a likely bust stuck in a TEBC situation is not appealing to me.
  8. Can I get a dynasty draft pick price check for AR15?
  9. Ha, funny you should say that. I was definitely thinking it sounded more like a large keeper league than dynasty. ETA: No, I'm not aware of any high stakes dynasty leagues. I don't really play FF for money purposes, though. I like a relatively high buy just to keep people interested, but that's the only purpose of a buy in to me.
  10. Isn't that the point? To hoard all the good players to create... a dynasty? To me, even 22 would feel small. I like large rosters even in redraft, though. Small rosters are a parity mechanism* just as much as weekly resetting waivers (groan - I played with both one year and literally every team was either 7-6 or 6-7), forcing good teams to leave good players on the wire for those in need. IMO, in dynasty, if you've got a hole in your lineup, you should be screwed until you make a trade. There shouldn't be any startable players on the WW. Which is also why I prefer more fixed lineup spots over flex. If it is down to a flex or nothing, I'll always go with the larger number of lineup spots, but fixed spots increase difficulty in roster composition. But I appreciate the explanations from everyone. Gives some more context when I see FFPC listed by trades. *Now that I think about it, this is a necessary evil for them since I've read they are really good about filling orphaned teams. Rebuilding in a format with shallow rosters and flexible starting lineups is MUCH easier than the formats I am used to.
  11. You guys like that format? 14 spots... that's really thin for dynasty. Almost forces a studs and duds approach. And with 18 spots, 2nd round picks have almost no value and 3rd round picks are a total waste.
  12. Oh, it's very fair. Those were some flukish runs. I would bet against him having any runs over 70 yards in 2018, much less two of them on less than 200 carries. As for his 4.5 ypc in 2016, he was the clear backup, getting 1 carry for every 3 for Murray. I don't think you can extrapolate that when he moves from backup to an early down grinder role. And FWIW, I do negatively judge a 3rd down back for getting 15 yards on 3rd and 20. Guys who play a lot on 3rd down and in the 2-minute drill should have their ypc taken with a grain of salt. Situational usage can trick people into thinking Duke Johnson is good. Situation matters. Context matters. That's why I pointed out those runs. They were weird and they greatly skewed his stats. That being said, I don't think you're wrong about him being able to approach 1000 yards rushing. It's among the reasonable outcomes. I'm sure they'd like to rush him more than 220 times and hopefully the offense is improved from last year (did not look nearly as good as 2016). The offensive line should still be a top unit. But right now we don't know how big of a role Dion will play or just how good Henry actually will be as a lead back. It is nice that he can break long gains, but when the entire (tired/defeated) defense is at the LoS, it leads to some flukish long runs - LenDale White once had an 80 yard TD in a situation like that - so Henry's two long TDs when closing out games mean very little to me.
  13. Where you getting 4.4 ypc? The dude lucked into two 70+ yard TDs when he was supposed to get a first down and fall over to ice the game... and still only ended up with 4.2 ypc. I hate to be that guy, but those were some fluky carries so I'm going to do it anyway... take those two runs out and he's at 3.4 ypc. I'm really just being a devil's advocate here. I've had my eye on Henry since he came out and wanted to try to acquire him this year. So I haven't been down on him as a talent, but 2017 certainly gave me pause... and then with the Dion signing I think I feel comfortable letting someone else hang onto him.
  14. Nope. That situation is weird as hell, though. I thought I read that the new coaching staff actually met or called Henry's agent to assure him that Henry was their guy... then a couple days later they sign Dion Lewis. Several analysts even speculating that Lewis is the starter there. I'm doubtful about that, but definitely no longer want any part of Henry in PPR format. Dion's value could've been much more if he'd gone somewhere like Indy, but what's his value now? He turns 28 in 6 months and has an injury label (even though he's only really had two injuries of note) which will work against him. If RB was a need in PPR, I might give an early 2nd for either one of them, but would really want to see how the draft shakes out first. Could see just taking Penny or Freeman (or even Ballage in the right situation) and hoping for the best. But then again, I don't have an early 2nd or need RB...
  15. Alex Smith didn't play a snap in week 17 The problem here is that I think there might be some confusion between a bad passing offense and an efficient passing offense. Hunt definitely benefited from Alex Smith keeping drives alive and not turning the ball over. Alex Smith's 2017 season was not that different than Drew Brees' 2006 season when Tomlinson scored 28 rushing TDs or Trent Green's 2003 season when Priest Holmes scored 27 rushing TDs. The key thing is that these guys were playing well, they just weren't leading the league in passing attempts. A balanced attack is always going to be good for RB workload. I don't think it's reasonable to expect Mahomes to operate in as efficient a manner as Alex Smith did. 67.5% completion percentage, 8.00 ypa, and a 5:1 TD to INT ratio is nearly impossible to replicate as a first year starter. If there is a drop off, it will cost the team first downs, field position, and game script. This will adversely impact the RBs. But one thing worth noting in regards to Shady, Zeke, and Fournette is that all of those offensive lines were crushing it. Dallas was PFF's 4th ranked OL and Buffalo was 7th. JAX actually only ranked 15th overall by PFF, but they ranked 2nd in run blocking. Buffalo was 4th in run blocking. Hunt's unit was right in the middle (16th). I believe they only lost Fulton in free agency. Again, I'm not saying Hunt is going to be a bust or anything crazy. He's a good RB. I just think anyone buying now (via trade or startup) is buying high. I'd rather spend my startup budget elsewhere.