FF Ninja

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  1. It drastically changes the expected fantasy points of a bye week filler, so it is important context. A legit bye week filler in a league that starts a minimum of 64 WRs (and a maximum of 80) every week is a back of the bench scrub in a league that only starts 36 WRs every week.
  2. I'll admit Robby has been in my blindspot. I'd kind of chalked his performance up to last man standing on a team trailing a lot. Kind of like Aiken a few years ago but with more garbage time. Some lazy analysis on my part. This post made me have a look and through week 13, he had 12 games played with 86 targets for 49/821/7 which extrapolates to 65/1095/9. And the garbage time wasn't nearly as bad as I was assuming. The TD/catch and YPR will be hard to reproduce, his QB situation is up in the air a bit, and he's got better competition for targets this season... but at his current price (~WR58) and age (25.0), I gotta agree with Hank that his low price makes the risk factors worth the gamble.
  3. I'm hoping you start 4 WRs in a 16 team league. I would not want to go into the season with any of those guys as my bye week fill in (12 team leagues). Like you, I like TT the best out of that group, but zero of those guys should be in a starting lineup at any point this year without an injury to someone ahead of them on the depth chart. The best case scenario for most of them is to be the WR3 on their NFL team which rarely translates to better than fantasy WR5 numbers.
  4. Ah ok, I missed that. However, I do think it's a bit of a flawed premise. Are you staying away from OBJ because he's saddled with a 37 y.o. Eli? AJ Green and Dalton? Hell, Andre Johnson never had a QB who threw 30 TDs in a season for his entire career. I get that you think Evans is overrated only "in part" due to Winston, but on the topic of Winston as he pertains to Evans' fantasy value I think these points are relevant: 1) Being a top NFL 10 QB is less important than being a top 10 passing stats fantasy QB because passing fantasy stats = receiving fantasy stats 2) A WR1 can thrive without a top 10 QB, especially in PPR format (generally speaking I think 4000 yards and 25 PTD is sufficient) 3) Winston could still improve because (a) he was a relatively young rookie (he's a year younger than Wentz, a year older than Mayfield) and (b) he's shown some improvement every year thus far Again, I'm not a Winston fanboy. I own him in zero dynasty leagues and I'm pursuing him in zero dynasty leagues. I believe I have him in 1 or 2 auction best ball leagues so far this year. I feel like I fall right in the middle - neither high on him nor low on him. At this point I don't think anyone can say definitively that the book is written on him.
  5. Others have answered your question, so I'll just provide a little data. If you take out the short week where he got injured, you're left with 12 games. Extrapolating them to 16 would give the following career arc for Winston: 4042/22/15 (QB13) 4090/28/18 (QB11) 4591/25/15 (~QB10) I'm not looking to acquire Winston nor will I be targeting him in drafts, but he's certainly got the potential and career trajectory to be an above average QB. To me he's the perfect example of a player I will actively bid on to see if I can get him cheap, but won't pay a dollar above his AAV, as opposed to a guy like Derek Carr who I will gladly watch go to someone else for the "bargain" of 20% below his AAV.
  6. Bell > DJ a mid-1st could easily be worth more than JuJu in a superflex So I'll take the Bell/1st side.
  7. That's crazy. Sometimes you just have to give up. If a guy wouldn't take an early 2nd, I'd just saw screw it and hope Gallup falls to me and has some decent value in 2018. Plus, you can always trade for a WR mid-season with a team that has given up on the season.
  8. Very true. He attempted 575 passes last season which doesn't seem like much in this day and age. As a team they were 8th in attempts with 584. Median was 541. Typically (although not always) when you have an above average QB, you thrown an above average amount of passes... so I don't expect much change in his pass attempts this season. The last time Rivers threw less than 570 times was 2013. Either way, this feels like over analyzing. Keenan was a likely candidate for 150 targets before and after the Henry injury. In the last half of the year he had 86 targets for 62/845/5.
  9. Henry and Gates combined for 114 targets and now they're both gone and the replacement options available don't look very good. It won't be crazy, but there will be a few more targets to go around.
  10. A contending team with a major hole to plug should be willing to overpay for Fitz (assuming 1PPR). If I was in that situation, I'd easily pay a mid-2nd. I'd obviously shop around before paying a high 2nd, but if I couldn't find willing WR sellers outside of the guy selling Fitz, I'd probably bite the bullet and pay a high 2nd. I know this time of year that feels hard to do, but if we take a step back, the hit rate on high 2nds is poor and you've (hypothetically) got a hole to plug and a championship to win - it's no time to worry about high risk players with little 2018 upside. In PPR, Fitz is a very nice 1-year rental.
  11. I never had Davis (not for lack of trying), but to be fair, he WAS actually a very good player but an injury killed his career. His stats were pretty impressive (16g average for his career was almost 2000 yfs) considering he was playing for a crap team with Dom Capers as the HC and David Carr as the QB: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DaviDo01.htm Sorry, couldn't resist picking that nit. I fully agree with your point about Barkley and the 3rd+ round 1000 yard players. I'm with you that Cooper>CMC long term, but man, I don't feel good about Oakland this year. I've been tempted to try to trade for Cooper, but I have a feeling he'll be much cheaper in ~7 months.
  12. Collins - late 2nd but Dixon scares me so I'd really want to find a way to acquire both if acquiring Collins Foreman - 4th (was not a fan before achilles injury, he's basically dead to me after... but if I could get him for a 4th, I could flip him to a fanboy - somehow he's still got some) Clement - 3rd in ppr, 4th in 0ppr
  13. I guess in other words, Evans has a huge tier gap in front of him in your view? And maybe MT is ahead of him? Just for grins, I looked up the rank by team total fantasy points from passing in the past 4 years for Houston and Tampa. Tampa was 30, 20, 17. 8 (how were they 8th last year??). Houston was 21, 19, 31, 14. So on average 19th and 21st. I'd say that's pretty similar. FWIW, being on par with Hopkins doesn't make him a world beater IMO, as I'm on record stating that Hopkins is overrated (I made a long post once breaking down how he is the garbage time king and just how much more valuable garbage time targets are than normal targets). I was mainly just pointing out that they should be viewed similarly going forward. I'm also not so sure Watson is as good as his small sample size has led the masses to believe. I'm still not sure what to make of Winston after 3 years. On the topic of points per target, OBJ is 1.97 so you are right to value him above Evans by a wide margin (1.66). Although his knucklehead factor does scare me to the point where I'll let someone else bid him up in a startup and I am not strongly pursuing him in trades. But again, I agree Barkley>>Evans. Just had to inquire about the reasoning behind your seeming dislike for Evans. I think he's a solid player to build around and would even prefer Evans + ~WR15 over OBJ/Hopkins + ~WR24 in terms of budget allocation when drafting a team (did not look up values, just assuming those would be similar cost totals).
  14. I agree that I would take Barkley over Evans straight up, but you don't seem to think very highly of Evans. Approximately where do you rank him as a WR? Like Coop said, on a points per game basis, he's been a WR1 if you look at his whole career, including rookie year. The QB play hasn't always been that great, either. FWIW, over the past 4 years, both Evans and Hopkins are averaging 1.66 points per target (however, Evans is averaging 9.3 targets per game to Hopkins' 10.2). I'm using Hopkins because he's had similar QB play to Evans* and I'm using points per target because offenses change quickly in the NFL - we can't rely on targets being static. So again, I agree, Barkley > Evans, but you seem a little harsh on Evans. I'm looking at some rankings and Keenan is the only guy I could make a case for leap frogging Evans. The other WRs I like better are 5+ years older. I don't think Michael Thomas' outlook will be that rosy without Brees and I'm still not an Adams fan long term.
  15. Since you are super into being pedantic, I guess I should point out that Ninja Gaiden was a Nintendo game, not a comic.