FF Ninja

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About FF Ninja

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  1. Very enlightening. Thanks for the contribution.
  2. Thanks for the response (and your general high activity in this thread). I was just illustrating the point, though. I don't consider it a very high priority. It would be nice if FBG was a one stop shop for all of those types of needs, but rookie ADP can be found elsewhere. So don't let it derail you guys from your AAV feature
  3. He wasn't expected to be full speed at OTAs.
  4. I agree rankings are more important, especially when your guys put notes (or have articles) explaining their decisions, but the use of a rookie ADP comes into play when trading. The simplest example would be if I were to look at the FBG rankings and they've got player X ranked #4 and I really want him, but if the rookie ADP has him going #7 then you realize you (likely) don't actually have to trade up (or down) to #4 to obtain that player. If the 1.04 guy is playing hard ball, you'll probably be safe with 1.05 or 1.06.
  5. Yeah, I couldn't imagine doing an auction in person (unless it's "in person" but everyone is actually sitting around with their laptops using a web interface).
  6. Think it would be possible to get some average auction values listed along with the consensus ADPs? I know I consult those ADPs frequently for snake leagues, but have been shifting over to auctions and would really appreciate some AAVs.
  7. It's funny. Everyone forgets it was a down year for TE scoring when talking about Kelce's TE1 finish but not when talking about Rudolph's TE2/3 finish. FWIW, I don't own him anywhere, but just agree with FB that he's an interesting case. I think Waldman mentioned that what had held Rudolph back for years was that the OL was weak so he was asked to stay in and block more. Looking forward, his volume is obviously tied to Bradford. Rudolph could probably do more, but Bradford really likes to check down to him, so in redraft I'll probably grab some Rudolph shares. Not sure what to expect in dynasty, though. He's definitely young and talented enough to be higher than TE15 in dynasty rankings. If he has another solid season but gets cut, I could see someone paying him well and thus utilizing him heavily. I don't know much about his pass blocking, but this is all I could come up with on a quick search: https://www.profootballfocus.com/signature-stats-pass-blocking-efficiency-rbs-and-tes/ Apparently he was pretty good at it 3 years ago.
  8. Um, 10/102/2 is 2.0 pgg more, so yeah, it's no small thing. And yes, I watched him last year - the Texans are my team. I've never been that impressed with him. I saw all the circumstantial points in 2015 and I saw AJ drawing double coverage in 2013 and 2014. As a homer, I wanted him to be great, but what I've seen hasn't matched up with what fantasy footballers talk about. He's not elite. He's Crabtree. Moderate speed, excellent hands and routes. People who bring up 2015 are blind with their bias. I don't use 2016 as my only defense. I told people 2015 was a fluke WHILE it was happening. I told anyone who would listen to avoid Hopkins at his price in 2016. Crabtree hasn't ever had a Hopkins 2015 season because perfect storms are rare. Hopkins got lucky. Crabtree didn't. Remember that time Dwayne Bowe finished WR2 overall while catching passes from Matt Cassell? Was it because he was elite? Maybe Bowe was QB-proof? Much like Bowe's 2010, Hopkins won't ever do 2015 again, but people will be chasing those points for another couple seasons while continuing to use the word "elite" to describe him. I know you're invested heavily in him and you want elite to happen, but that perfect storm is never coming back. If you draft him at WR11 this year, you're drafting him at his ceiling.
  9. Speaking of redraft, who has done redraft auctions and still actually prefers snake drafting? Snake drafting now feels rigid to me. I like the option of passing on all the first round options or grabbing two... whatever I feel is value. Like I won't absolutely turn down a snake league, but unless I love the settings, I'm probably going to pass. I like to look back at my auctions and see how my picks would match up with snake drafting ADP. I don't think I've ever had a draft where I've had a single player with an ADP in each of the first 4-5 rounds. I usually "trade" a first round selection for several extra 3rd-5th round guys that I feel are undervalued.
  10. Adding 1 catch/game gets him to 94 rec Add 1 catch and 15 yards to a lot of guys and they magically jump way up the rankings. Same with adding "a half dozen TDs"... wtf... TDs don't grow on trees, man. And if people aren't chasing 2015 points, why does it come up so often? Next year people are going to be saying "he's just 2 years removed from 111/1536/11" then 3 years the next year. Like you said, he was WR36 last year with 151 targets. That's insane. PPR is largely a volume (rather than performance) based scoring system and I'm just guessing but that's probably top 10 in targets for WR. Just one year ago people frequently called him "QB proof" Now that we realize he's not, we should temper expectations for the Savage/Watson show in 2017 rather than reminisce about 2015.
  11. I thought it was abundantly clear that I'm saying he's not a WR1. His fanboys bring up 2015 all the time like it's going to come back, but it isn't. That was a perfect storm. He does seem to have an ADP of WR11, which is still rich IMO, but people drafting him there thing they're getting a steal due to overreaction to last year's ~W36 finish. For 2017, I'm just spitballing here, but I'll go with 150 targets x 56% = 84 rec x 13.0 ypr = 1092 yds 8 TDs (catch rate, ypr, and TD all pretty generous) That projection assumes 16 games. If everybody magically plays 16 games, then he's probably a mid-WR2. But looking back to last year where a lot of top players missed games (Dez, Keenan, AJG, Alshon), 84/1092/8 is probably fringe WR1/WR2. That's why it's never good to compare 16 game projections to last year's final totals. Also, I should point out that I don't really love static projections. If I were to give a range that I think encompasses a 90% confidence interval, I'd say 70/850/4-90/1250/10 would work (again assuming 16g). For redraft purposes, I'd rather have Keenan, Crabtree, or Tate at a fraction of the cost. I think they will put up similar (or better in the case of Keenan) fantasy ppg.
  12. It's a good exercise, but I wouldn't call it fun. I can't even make myself attempt the Bears. Seems like an exercise in futility for the following reasons: Nobody really knows how the Glennon/Tubisky situation will play out Even if we did, they are both huge question marks Kevin White could be a stud or a bust, nobody really knows I'm probably alone on this, but I'm not sold on Howard Hard to project what Loggains will do based on his lone year in Chicago where Barkely led the team with 216 PA
  13. Look, you can chase those points if you want. I'm just saying it isn't wise. Hoyer played 11 games and was actually very efficient. But if you ask what's the big argument, the answer is that there isn't one. There are several medium sized arguments: Hoyer (and the aggregate Houston QB of 2015) was probably better than 2017 aggregate QB Houston ranked 10th in pass attempts in 2015, which I'd bet against for 2017 Houston ranked 30th in TE targets in 2015, but clearly shifted focus to the TE when BOB took over play calling midway through 2016 Hopkins is unlikely to get 65 targets while "trialing big" Hopkins is unlikely to get 192 total targets Elite WRs typically catch 33% of team passing TDs, so he's unlikely to repeat 11 TDs unless Houston QBs get better
  14. 34% of his targets were while "trailing big" according to FBG splits, resulting in 37/539/3. 2015 was the perfect storm for Hopkins. The odds of it happening again in his career... I'm going to say <1%. He's a good, not great WR that was propped up by volume + garbage time. But he's never missed a game and looked really good when playing opposite a guy who drew double coverage a lot. If Houston can find another Andre, Hopkins' 2014 is repeatable. But with Houston's questionable QBs, I'd advise people to stop chasing 2015's points.
  15. Good signing by the Eagles.