Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

ConnSKINS26

Members
  • Content Count

    14,566
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    4

Everything posted by ConnSKINS26

  1. You've made some good, data-based points in here as I've read along the last few pages and you've done a good job saying your piece, imo. Now I'm not saying you should never post in here again, but I think you're above this particular kind of post which just feels inflammatory for its own sake after the debate that already raged today. I like reading your posts around here and it's been interesting watching you make the journey into dynasty opinions/analysis more recently. So I hope this doesn't come across as an attack or undue criticism, rock. It's just this post I'm talking about. Don't wanna see you get clipped is all.
  2. I had similar fears about the trajectory with Chubb, compared to his still relatively soaring value. Despite loving him I made the move to deal him for DJ Moore, it just feels like their values are trending in opposite directions for the foreseeable future.
  3. You're in a pretty good spot imo, definitely not in a place to need to make a desperation move at QB. Would a Lamar/Kyler combo be ideal? Of course, but Lamar + Brees and his current cuff isn't bad in that format.
  4. The way his value continues to skyrocket this offseason I'm becoming very pleased with my decision to deal Chubb for DJM a couple months ago.
  5. I think it's interesting that the conversation is always about TE with Lebron. I guess because of his obvious quick-twitch athleticism, speed, and ball skills it makes sense. EDGE is an interesting thing to think about. But a sleeper position for an athlete like Lebron, if he came up differently in athletics and sculpted his body differently on the same freakishly athletic frame? I think that in an alternate universe where a 6'9" freak athlete like Lebron chose football in college, it isn't out of the question to wonder if he could have ended up as a LT after putting on serious bulk. He already looks about 280 to me and that's very lean, purposefully sculpted muscle for basketball. Slabbed up by eating and lifting with the goal of adding max poundage and heavy, functional muscle? I don't think it's impossible that that relatively lean-looking 280 becomes a downright cornfed-looking 335. If that was the goal. Those guys don't always start "fat". Remember how Jake Long (I think that's who it was) looked crazy slender and fit after like a year out of the league? Because a lot of the best athletes at OT treat putting on and keeping on 320+ pounds as a full time job in itself. You'd be surprised at the frame a lot of those guys are packing this weight onto and how TE-like they may look if they never treated gaining OL weight as their job. Some of these guys even have absolute chicken legs below the knees although the best usually tend to have thick big bones and calves too, seemingly.
  6. Gotta start by saying that Sanders and Singletary are nowhere close to each other in value so don't start there!
  7. Fair, because the position is a disaster, but I moreso meant being a guy you'd be happy having as your every week TE as a competitor. It's not that he's a guy I wouldn't want to own, it's just that every owner prices in the assumption that he's about to be Ertz.
  8. On the topic of Rams, the fact that they drafted one of the developmental move TE guys in the mid rounds this year pretty much locks in stone that their mindset is to let Everett hit FA after this season. That was probable after the Higbee extension but feels even moreso now that they've already gotten a backup plan in place. Everett flashed big time and this league is desperate for impact at the TE position, as shown by the Hurst trade and other TE moves across the league. Now might be the time to buy if possible. You could wait and hope Higbee stays healthy but then there's always the possibility that McVay keeps running more 2TE sets and goes away from going 3-wide as often (the change that led to Kupp's dip in target share and snap count, that as someone else already mentioned was only camaflouged by his TD numbers down the stretch).
  9. This is like people hyping Martellus Bennett behind Witten until they finally got separated by FA. People will continually overvalue and overdraft Goedurt with the idea that he could overtake or significantly cut into Ertz's work until the day they are no longer on the same team. Goedurt isn't even young for how long he'll have been in the league by the time he has a shot to be a TE1, but that's fine given how long they can play. The best time to buy him if you are interested is after a bunch of early games this year where it's clear Ertz is still a stud, while the specter of Goedurt and Ertz both still being far from FA is still there. You buy Goedurt now in the offseason and you're most likely paying a price that has the assumption of his upside built into the cost.
  10. The assumption of the Rooney Rule isn't necessarily that people only aren't getting interviews and jobs due to discrimination, though. Folded into it (and probably a much bigger factor) is just the difference in opportunities. The NFL is a nepotism-filled, incestual cocoon. Family lines get people jobs all the time. There's a lot going on here, systemically and societally, that contributes to this thing and I doubt the largest factor is out and out discrimination. That's what needs to be addressed, changing how candidates get into the coaching pipeline and how these opportunities come about. Then, slowly over time, you hope to see things change.
  11. I get what you're trying to say is that intuitively it feels wrong (and you're right) but really it's not strange at all when you realize it comes down to different opportunites--it's systemic. It's a tough conversation to have while keeping it football-related as it's not Shark Pool material.
  12. Besides Cyberpunk 2077 the only game I'm really looking forward to right now is Vampire the Masquerade: Bloodlines 2. It looks awesome and I've read a bunch of the kind of urban fantasy Seattle vampire lore they came up with, on the game's site. I actually never even played the first one back in the day, and now it's too old and janky to get me into it, despite all the years I played janky western RPGs like Morrowind or Pool of Radiance which was a straight broken mess compared to the much better Baldur's Gate franchise. But something about this apparently long-awaited sequel sucked me in and unless it totally bombs I'm looking forward to picking a vampire clan and sucking some blood while roaming the night in First Person with supernatural powers and stuff. I'm playing Pathfinder: Kingmaker right now with a Turn-Based mod for the battles bc I'm too old to be micro-managing that Real Time With Pause bull#### I used to love back in the day. It's a blast and I'm enjoying it even more than I liked Pillars of Eternity 1+2, but that might be because I'm a DnD guy and this game isn't the off-brand spiritual successor to Baldur's Gate that POE1+2 are, but rather actual DnD 3.5e type rules, classes, spells etc. being based on real Pathfinder.
  13. Actually most Madden haters who actually pay attention are perfectly aware that it all needs to be torn down and rebuilt because they're building on top of a stilted, poor foundation. And that they'll never do it because they'd need a 2-3 year development cycle to pull it off. We know, it's well documented. That's why Madden sucks and barely changes every year. Trust me, most people who want a good sim football experience, the NFL version of The Show, wish it was financially viable for EA to take a few years and start over, we'd make that "sacrifice" because it's not worth buying every year for a roster update anyways. I get that a ton of the game's limitations are legacy issues from ten years ago, and that's the problem. But ironically none of the stuff you mentioned as things the NFL won't allow even registers on most people's wish lists for what Madden should be able to get right. Zone and Man coverage are busted. AI teams can't tell the difference between 4-3 OLB and 3-4 EDGE players, or 4-3 DT and 3-4 IDL. They can't figure out how to cause incompletions (leading to realistic comp%) without wacky airballs and ridiculous tipped ball animations when most NFL games see just a couple high-tipped balls per game, and they're all heart-stopping in real life when they happen. They're common-place in Madden bc crazy contested incompletions are the only way the AI can slow down a human player without tons of INTs or egregious drops that don't correlate to player ratings. Player models are wonky and don't look realistic, they're all weirdly thinned out and lanky, nvm the equipment issues. Blocking animations are still trash and non-OL subbed onto the line can still block the same at 180 lbs with no blocking stats. Defensive players are sticky on blockers until a tackle animation triggers, then they're sticky on ball carriers...so you can never actually feel like you're controlling an elusive tackle-breaking guy with vision, you basically need to break an animation and then break away with pure speed to make big plays in modern madden. Substitutions still don't work and AI teams don't use them correctly. 5+ years into the franchise mode, none of the drafted players progress into the same type or same level of players that the game's stock updated roster comes with, so the mode is pointless as the league's younger drafted players deteriorate the talent pool into one-dimensional role players who for instance can only ever be good at Man or Zone on defense, or can only become good Run or Pass blockers (not that OL ratings work well anyways). The on-field gameplay and animations are broken, repetitive, and boring and don't resemble the actual sport. The ratings don't effect the game in an intuitive or meaningful way outside of a few. The AI is trash and teams don't change schemes correctly to utilize the high ratings their players DO have. An AI team will draft the best EDGE prospect ever with 90 block shedding and play him as a 4-3 coverage OLB. Obviously the franchise mode is broken, drafted players don't progress correctly, the XP system is idiotic and works poorly, contracts and the salary cap don't work correctly, compensatory picks don't exist, RFA tags don't exist, 5th-year options on 1st round rookie contracts don't exist, Supplemental draft doesn't exist, UDFA doesn't exist in a meaninful way. So on and off the field Madden is broken. People who like to play H2H can at least learn to exploit the meta aspects of the game to play in whatever way works to enjoy competitive play I guess, but it's a poor representation of actual football. Hell the Madden Championship or whatever was just won by a dude who didn't even roster a QB lol, had a Punter at QB all game and ran the ball every. Single. Play. Silly that that's even possible. Now I'm not saying you don't know this stuff, I know you're anti-EA and kind of agreeing with me. But EA being unable (more unwilling but technically unable since to fix their broken engine and the garbage foundation the whole thing is built on would take a multi-year development cycle that the suits in marketing and such wouldn't allow) has nothing to do with unfair or irrational fan expectations. People who pay attention know why it can't all be fixed in 1-year development cycles. THAT's what they're mad about, the futility of the current cycle, not that it isn't fixed year to year lol. Most would sacrifice a couple years of worse than mediocre individual "new" Madden games for a big jump forward in 2023 or whatever, but it'll never happen from EA.
  14. Definitely agree on Moss. He has a Zac Stacy air about him to me for some reason. Nothing special on tape just looks like a good high effort RB with a nice low base and nice balance who will get it done, but the difference between College and NFL athleticism on opposing defenses just crushes all hope. JAGs can succeed at RB in the NFL but the combo of scheme, workload (aka lack of competition) and usually vision has to hit just right for anything more than boring replacement-level production, and I don't see that here. Now obviously Zac Stacy was Gurley'd but he was also nothing special at all before or after on other teams, he was a total projection of wishful thinking by owners due to decent pedigree and little competition (before Gurley).
  15. I hate to break it to you (and I'm not trying to be rude, I hope you enjoy this format since you're playing it) but that's not a dynasty league. For him to be on waivers halfway through the season with his pedigree and hype as a prospect (and his flashes as early as week 1), your rosters aren't big enough to be called a dynasty league. Especially with the weird half-season waivers. Sounds like a limited keeper league. Edit: I see you posted again after and that it's a 10 team keep 14 league with in-season rosters of 22. Yeah, that's definitely not dynasty but you're profiting from that now! With guys like AJB on waivers it seems someone who was willing to truly rebuild for a season or two could easily become a young dominant team by trading vets for draft capital and hoarding all the sexy young prospects who wouldn't sniff waivers in a normal dynasty league.
  16. @EBF was a Merritt guy for deep devy back when he was a heralded athlete committing to Oregon, I remember clearly and filed that named away. Because I did the same when EBF put a little known track freak named Tyreek Hill on my radar before he blew up too. Hell, before he ever got drafted or even got in trouble in college. Not to say Merritt is a Tyreek type sleeper. Just saying that EBF was the first person on any fantasy site I'd seen utter Tyreek's name as a guy to watch, years early if I remember correctly and before he transferred, purely due to his athleticism. And Merritt too, who is also a hell of an athlete.
  17. Yeah but a guy who fell into the 70's pick area in the 3rd round is a different commitment entirely than using a top-10 pick
  18. That two people have been through multiple life-changing experiences together and grown into close friends? Nobody would say anything if they were both women or if it was a "bromance". We don't usually see that type of display of emotion because these people, even if they grow close, only usually know each other for about a month. These two played three times in six years, always together. None of the men in here have platonic friends who are women, that they're close with? I didn't think it was that weird at all. Especially since both probably suspected he had just won $2 million dollars a day early--that was really Tony's final challenge, not the Final Tribal Council. The tension and emotion release after winning that fire making contest had to be insane.
  19. The yellow is skewing way too neon for me. Like the flashy road safety yellow/green on vests. And the numbers just look stupid.
  20. They released a very short clip of next-gen Madden and it's indistinguishable from any of the last three Madden titles Not a surprise at all but they're just sticking with this broken architecture they've been building on top of for a decade. Again, no one should be surprised by this. But it's made WORSE by the fact that Microsoft is now pushing this "all our games can be played on next gen AND this gen interchangeably!" crap. That's going to severely limit a lot of the 3rd party AAA games that come to both consoles as those games by definition won't be able to fully take advantage of the new technology and powerful computing abilities outside of more generic improvements to the next-gen versions like load times etc. From the foundation up (with more complex things like enemy/oppenent AI etc.) those games will have to run on old tech first, and then be upscaled on the newer consoles essentially. They won't be building two separate versions of these multi-platform or Microsoft exclusive games, so the new ones at some level will always be held back. I get that the new XBOX is stealing the spotlight right now but given that this is the Microsoft plan moving forward, how are PlayStation exclusives NOT gonna pull far ahead by the end of this next generation? 8 years from now XBOX and multi-platform games are still gonna be hamstrung by 15 year old tech from this current gen that's ending, having to run on both (and on whatever incrementally improved consoles they release in 3-4 years). That seems...ill advised.
  21. I wouldn't overlook the difficulty of that at all. Natalie is a beast. She's proven she's tough as hell. She's experienced quite the ordeal and accomplished a lot. It just that none of it took place in the actual game of Survivor. She's been playing a different game entirely along with the rest of the crew on the Edge of Extinction. You cannot be voted out by your fellow survivors, never mind being the first one out, and go on to win the game and have it feel legitimate. It's spitting in the face of 20 years of history and excellent gameplay on a season where they've been trying to hype up that legacy the entire time. The Winner of Winners, possibly being crowned the greatest player of all time, the best of the best and the largest prize pool ever. The future face of Survivor forever more. That person cannot be someone who got voted out. This "twist" has already ruined and invalidated one season. Having it happen again, on Winners at War of all seasons, would be a travesty. My one hope lies in the fact that in the media run-up to the season airing, Jeff said that he thinks Survivor fans will be happy with the outcome of the season. imo this means a deserving non-EoE winner, because I have to believe that Jeff knows his own fanbase enough after two decades to know that nobody would be happy with a winner who was at any time voted out of the game. Especially not with this historic group of Winners.
  22. Fair enough. I'm of the mind that Brady has had nothing but Edelman and White for a couple years now and is actually in a much better situation for fantasy success and still has "it". The Patriots were basically playing small ball and defense to win in recent years, even more than they always have, and while Brady's arm isn't what it was he's not final season Peyton Manning. Even Peyton post-neck injury throwing ducks had one huge year due to all the weapons they put around him. Then his arm really deteriorated even more. Brady's arm is in better shape than Peyton's was in his record-breaking DEN season, and Brady's put up video game numbers before when he had the weapons, he now has an aggressive ballsy HC, and wants to show the world he wasn't a product of Belichick. I'm not prepared to fade him for a guy like freaking Minshew.
  23. Why? In a 12 team 1 QB, QB1 production is easy to come by. It's only elite seasons that matter. A chance at even 1 elite Brady season is worth more than 10 middling Minshew seasons (assuming he even becomes a consistent starter and stays one). Nothing about Minshew looked studly to me. He screams roster clogger to me because you'd never want to cut him as a young starter and QB deals are rare in that format.
  24. @Dr. BD I appreciate your caution but I can't believe you haven't lost this deal yet, he seems desperate to move Tyreek for a sexy young WR name plus a little value. Oblige him. The guy is killing himself trying to give you a top-3 fantasy WR in Tyreek for cheap, please let him. Especially now that the price has gone down to Sutton + Hunt rather than Sutton + Dobbins. Just do it. Tyreek consistently wins weeks single-handedly with Mahomes and the value of that in his prime is a lot harder to quantify than just looking at total points (which also look good for him). When you have the RBs you do that gives you a high floor. A guy like Tyreek puts you over the top when you need it. Sutton is great but you're too invested, unless you're the biggest Lock fan on earth this isn't going to be close. AND you get a mystery box 2021 1st back for your trouble? He's pleading with you to let him give you a great deal. Edit: it took me long enough to type this that you did the deal lol. Great job!
  25. And each of those events had their own effect on her, cumulatively, it's just that all the copies of her had all gone through those same experiences before they were split. Anything they've experienced since would only effect each individual copy, so I don't see why they wouldn't eventually diverge from the "original". The difference is that most of the copies were given more basic tasks that more easily allowed them to stay like Dolores Prime. The Charlotte copy had to live as someone else and make connections with people, carry on relationships with them, giving her the chance to fall into the same habits that OG Dolores had in the past of becoming attached to others despite herself. It's no coincidence obviously that they made the most interesting copy be played by the most famous/capable actor, and that that's the copy that lives on in the show. They meant for that copy to end up different. I think part of the problem is they aren't clear how much time passes in this season and I think it's a decent amount of time, taken all together. Not a super long time, but long enough to form bonds in her new life especially with the kid. (General point of order about the copies though, the copy that looks like Lawrence, who wasn't introduced until the last episode or two who gave Bernard the briefcase, is still alive. I bet that one puts itself back into a DoloresClassic body and that's how they keep Evan Rachel Wood on board. Because the actress is still on the show despite the death of the OG Dolores).