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xrayveggin

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About xrayveggin

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  1. I really like Deebo Samuel, think his floor is top 36WR rest of season and could find himself inside the top 24. Garoppolo can't trust any other (healthy) WR on his roster not to muff the catch (similarly the WRs can't rely on Garoppolo to throw with much accuracy). Deebo showed impressive skills using his body to shield throws and catch in traffic against an aggressive (first time this season) Seahawks secondary. Sanders will probably be hit or miss the next few weeks in terms of availability. Kittle probably has a significant PCL injury, and I see him missing 1-2 more games and being used more conservatively for the rest of the season. I'm paralyzed by FOMO when it comes to Slayton, Gordon, Tre'Quan, probably Slayton has the best chance because he's really earned his QB and coach's trust the past few weeks. As a Seahawks fan, I'm carrying Gordon. If Metcalf can learn to catch a back shoulder fade... he'll be a 100/1 WR every week, but I don't think he's going to learn how to do it this season (unless Gordon has some magic). Curtis Samuel has 4 theoretically nice games in the next 6 weeks, 2 against Atlanta, 1 each against the Redskins and Seahawks, but all three of those team defenses might be on the upswing in the second half of the season. Samuel OBJ and Baker look to be getting on the same page, finally. Calvin Ridley has been disappointing - not much improvement in production from year 1. Not sure why there wasn't an uptick in targets after the Sanu trade.
  2. I think he was feeling like he was getting to a place where he would abuse substances again, and decided it was more important to take care of himself than to be there for his team (he was right). It was a smart and mature choice, and it's the kind of positive step you want to see from someone with substance abuse history. If he had tested positive, we would have heard it, and it would have been announced as a lifetime ban, like his prior suspension that lasted 1.5 seasons. yes, he costs the last spot on your roster, who for most teams is a completely replaceable player. Gordon may also be a completely replaceable player, but he does have upside in terms of talent (which is not near his peak, but it still apparently good enough to beat Sherman in tight press coverage) and QB/opportunity and schedule, and he is more likely to be relevant in the last 6 weeks of the season than many other players on the waiver wire (most of whom don't have his talent, or his potential opportunity, or his favorable schedule).
  3. Nick Foles. Westbrook will probably return, and Foles also seems to do his best when replacing a starter...
  4. Good luck. Hope you win Josh a FF championship .. . bong!
  5. Slayton and Hill, for sure. I'll add Josh Gordon. TL;DR summary: Gordon has moved to a better offense, with a QB Gordon likes better and has a 5 year friendship with, with a QB who throws the ball better especially downfield where Gordon needs to be successful to be fantasy relevant, in an offense that loves to take deep shots downfield, on a team with a culture he likes better, and on a playoff bound team with a sieve-like defense. He's on a bye week in week 11, so they can use him a little bit tonight and get him up to speed over the ensuing 13 days. I'll snip a few of my comments from the 457 page Josh Gordon thread and put them here: Gordon costs nothing to roster if he can be added before tonight's game (have a marginal depth player on bye week this week that you don't see needing before week 12?). Gordon's got a clear path to the 3rd most targets per week on the team after the bye week. WRs 3/4 JBrown and DMoore account for 81 percent of offensive snaps on the year, and both are below replacement level players. The TE situation is very average or less than average - Hollister has earned 14 targets in the entire season after Dissly went down in the first few weeks. RBs don't drain a high number of targets. Seahawks are top 4 in passing efficiency. The offense scores the 7th most points per game in the NFL, with the 7th worst scoring kicking game (FG), and the 7th worst FG% kicker in the NFL. Wilson leads the NFL in passing TDs, and has been top 5 in passing TDs for the past 3 seasons. Wilson is top 5 in attempted air yards and completed air yards, and has consistently been in or near the top 5 in the NFL in deep downfield passing efficiency for his entire career. From weeks 12-16 where it might make sense to start Gordon, the Seahawks face defenses that are decidedly worse against the pass than they are against the run (excepting Carolina in week 15): wk12 Phi 4% pass/ -18% run wk13 Min -2% pass/ -17% run wk14 LAR 3% pass/-23% run wk16 Ari 29% pass/-5%run, an especially sweet matchup in the playoffs. The Seahawks' defense is 27th in DVOA and gives up the 7th most points per drive and 10th most points per game. The offense will need to score points to win. And the icing on the cake (anyone got the munchies?), no positive drugs tests or pending suspension, yet, that we know of.
  6. He was the WR2 in fantasy point production during the time, averaging more points than any WR except Edelman. I don't know a single league that uses ordinal ranking of production as a way of scoring. Why are you? Trying really hard to find a way to not be wrong even though you are? Just trolling? In zero, half, and full PPR leagues, he was the 2nd most productive WR on his team in total fantasy points and weekly average fantasy points during those 11 weeks. That's WR2 production on his team. That's an absolute fact, and inarguable. He was the 26th WR in the entire NFL in points per game in half PPR leagues. That's high end WR3 production in the entire league. That's an absolute fact, and inarguable. I'm not trying to convince you to roster him. But damn straight I'll call you out for your unfounded, unresearched, and absolutely and inarguably false statement: The argument to roster him is as follows: He costs nothing to roster He's got a clear path to the 3rd most targets per week on the team after the bye week (JBrown and DMoore are below replacement level players, the TE situation is very average or less than average, and there is a not a pass catching RB stealing targets). He's on a top 4 offense in passing efficiency. The offense scores the 7th most points per game in the NFL, with the 7th worst scoring kicking game (FG), and the 7th worst FG% kicker in the NFL. His QB leads the NFL in passing TDs, and has been top 5 in passing TDs for the past 3 seasons. His QB is top 5 attempted air yards and completed air yards, and has consistently been in the top 5 in the NFL in deep downfield passing efficiency for his entire career. From weeks 12-16 where it might make sense to start Gordon they face defenses that are decidedly worse against the pass and better against the run (excepting Carolina in week 15): wk12 Phi 4% pass/ -18% run wk13 Min -2% pass/ -17% run wk14 LAR 3% pass/-23% run wk16 Ari 29% pass/-5%run And the icing on the cake, the defense is 27th in DVOA and gives up the 7th most points per drive and 10th most points per game. The offense will need to score points to win. Will he fail a drug test in the next few seasons? Perhaps, probably, very likely? I don't know. He's been clean for 2 years now. Does he have a failed drug test that is in the appeal process that we are unaware of? no way to know, but possible for sure. WIll he fail a drug test within 8 weeks of landing in Seattle? unlikely, but probably wouldn't matter because the appeals process will take more than 6 weeks to pan out. But for the next 6 weeks, I think Gordon could help out ff managers who need depth at the WR position, and there's a chance he could be a major contributor in a week 16 championship game against the 28th rated Arizona pass defense.
  7. you just don't do any research at all, do you? Just last season, he WAS the WR2 in NE, even though he played fewer games than Hogan, Dorsett, and Patterson, he outpaced all of them in targets, receptions, and yards. And even though he only was on the team for 11 games, he played more snaps than Dorsett and Patterson, earning the 3rd most snaps among WRs despite playing in fewer games than any other WR. Gordon played in 2 fewer games than Gronkowski and had more yards than Gronk. Gordon led the team in yards per target and yards per reception by a comfortable margin. He was easily the 2nd most productive WR on the Patriots in 2018. In half PPR leagues, in weeks 4-14 as a Patriot, he averaged the 26th highest points per game among all WRs. He was a very startable WR3. He would've rated a bit lower in full PPR leagues and a bit higher in 0 PPR. Based on recent history, there's a pretty high (pun intended) probability that Gordon will outscore any other player available right now on your waiver wire in weeks 12-17. And if he's available, he costs nothing.
  8. After the bye, I think Metcalf and Gordon will have very similar snap counts and targets. Metcalf is at 80% of snap counts, 6 targets per game through 9 games. I'm predicting Gordon takes Brown (28%) and Moore (53%) snap counts to get around 80%, and gets their targets (4 per game) plus gets 2 more targets per game as the team will need to pass a little more down the stretch due to better competition than they've faced in the first half of the season.
  9. the first comment I'll just dismiss out of hand, because everyone already has that risk baked into their projections. As for the second comment, Wilson's Average Intended Air Yards is 9.7 vs Brady's 7.2, and Wilson's Completed AIr Yards is 7.6 vs Brady's 5.6. So Wilson is throwing the ball on average 2 yards further per attempt, and completing at a 4% higher rate, and WIlson has thrown 22 TD on 293 passes compared to Brady's 14 on 355 passes. If you think Brady has anywhere close to the intermediate and downfield accuracy of Wilson, or remotely close to the same velocity, you are as blind as Gordon is high. Anyway, I think Gordon is a viable WR3 after the bye week, with upside to be a WR2.
  10. I watched film of 2 Gordon games from earlier this season and a few things really stood out to me... Corners still gave him a big cushion, and at least early in the season, he was eating up that cushion pretty quickly with surprising acceleration off the line. On almost every short and intermediate target to any WR, Brady threw the ball low and away from the defender; in the week 3 Jets game, at least 3 incompletions to Gordon were thrown below his knees and at or behind Gordon while Gordon was running with pace - an quite difficult catch for a 6'3" size/speed WR to make. On almost every intermediate or deep throw, Gordon was left waiting for the ball to arrive, giving defenders chances to recover and/or make better plays on the ball - Brady doesn't have the arm strength to consistently make accurate throws downfield. Gordon had some trouble catching the ball in traffic/through contact, though this appeared to be a combination of Brady's inaccurate passing downfield and Gordon's rust vs age. Russell is a much better downfield QB than Brady, and neither Moore nor Brown pose any real obstacle to Gordon seeing snaps or targets. In fantasy terms, Wilson is likely to see a little bump in production given (edit) given Gordon representing an upgrade over Brown and Moore and an end of season schedule that will require more offensive production. Moore and Brown go from unrosterable in all but the deepest leagues to unrosterable in even the deepest leagues. If Gordon is worthy of more than the 4 targets a game that Moore+Brown averaged, I imagine Lockett will have a marginal decrease in opportunity combined with a marginal increase in efficiency resulting in similar overall production. Gordon might draw a target or two away from Metcalf as well, but if Gordon is demanding more targets than Metcalf, Metcalf is likely to see the 3rd DB or a safety in coverage and should be able to take advantage with an increase in efficiency - and I expect similar fantasy production going forward. The team will likely continue to develop Metcalf with a high percentage of snaps counts. So my Gordon prediction is the 4 targets per game from Moore/Brown, plus 2 targets per game because he's much better than either of them , a 65% catch rate because Wilson is more accurate than Brady, an avg YPC of 17.5 (Gordon's average over 17 games in NE) and 0.5 TD per game (Wilson throws 1 TD every 13 attempts). After the bye, I think a decent median prediction is an average of 4 catches, 70 yards, 0.5 TD per game (12 pts PPR), with quite high variance from game to game (basically what I expect from Metcalf the ROS). If Gordon is the same player physically that I saw in the Jets game, with Wilson's accuracy on the deep ball, I think there is a little more upside.
  11. why? because these are two talented-enough RBs? or because there are other positional needs? or because RBs don't give reasonable return on draft value? or all three? oh, I know, you're confident because you have faith that John Elway won't make any poor personnel choices!
  12. Sigmund, thanks for your input: 14 team half ppr league 1) for this week, Pick 2 WR and 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE) RB: PLindsey, RJones WR: DKMetcalf, CSamuel, PWilliams, MHardman and the best of the Waiver Wire: DJackson, CBrate, AMiller 2) With TKelce as my TE, do I preemptively pick up CBrate or GEverett to hold until the week 12 bye, or just roll with a last minute TE? If I pick up Brate, do I drop RJones, CSamuel, PWIlliams, MHardman 3) for rest of season, do I add any of TYHilton, DJackson, WFuller, AMiller, TrequanSmith - who to drop RJones, CSamuel, PWIlliams, MHardman
  13. I think you end up winning the trade. JJackson looked good enough last week and at the end of last year that it will probably split away from Ekeler once in a while. Ronald Jones had a great week 1, and if he keeps running the same way, he'll have the lead back workload by the time you need him to cover bye weeks, around the time Gordon comes back and Ekeler loses value.
  14. playoffs nightmare... 0.5 ppr, start 1rb/2wr/2flex DavidJohnson and a bad ARI OL vs. an improving Lions Run D JoeMixon vs a tough Chargers D JustinJackson vs soft LAC Def LagarretteBlount vs ARI JJSS vs OAK StephonDiggs vs SEA TylerBoyd vs LAC CalvinRidley vs GB MikeWilliams vs CIN NYG vs WAS SEA vs MIN Drop any of the above to pick up Chase Edmonds or Rashad Penny? Thanks Sig, and good luck in your leagues.