Just Win Baby

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About Just Win Baby

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    San Diego Chargers

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  1. See how easy that was?
  2. First off, I agree that Allen was ranked about a round or so too high, which is part of what prompted this tangent of discussion. As for Williams, if I counted properly, @Dan Hindery has him at WR35. That is about right IMO. I think WR30-WR35 is about the right range, and that is before slotting in 2017 rookies, should any merit a higher ranking. What round such a ranking equates to obviously depends on league parameters and tendencies. As for projecting Williams, there are many factors to consider: 1. The Chargers have a new HC, Anthony Lynn. Lynn was a RB in the NFL and has spent most of the past 15 years as a RB coach for several franchises. Last year, he was promoted to Bills' OC when Greg Roman was fired. The Bills went on to have the #1 rushing offense and #30 passing offense (#32 in pass attempts). Obviously, he has a much different set of personnel in San Diego, with a much better passing QB and better set of targets. The Chargers' OC from last season stayed on, which provides some continuity. So what to expect from the Chargers' offense going forward? Hard to know what to expect, but I would absolutely take the under on 580 pass attempts (last year's total). 2. Another reason to take the under on pass attempts if the team can improve its running game is because the pass protection has been a disaster in recent seasons. Rivers took a beating last season. While he has been incredibly durable, he is 35, so they need to protect him better to keep him upright for the next few seasons. One way to help that is to drop back to pass less frequently. 3. There is a lot of competition for targets. a. As a group, the Chargers' WRs under McCoy over the past 4 seasons have averaged the following season totals: 306 targets, 191 receptions, 2547 receiving yards, 16 receiving TDs. - Allen has been utterly dominant when on the field the past 2 seasons. He signed a $45M contract extension and will be the team's WR1 if healthy. His performance has justified that, and he also has Rivers' (and likely the coaching staff's) trust (an issue for Williams). None of his injuries are expected to have any long term effects, and thus they don't seem to carry predictive value about future injuries or impact on his future performance. While Allen certainly may not average 11+ targets per game, he will get the most targets on the team. If healthy, no way he gets fewer than 120 targets. - The Chargers just signed Benjamin to a $24M contract last offseason, and he played most of this season with a PCL injury, for which he had arthroscopic surgery a few weeks ago. He will be back and will get targets. Even playing hurt and missing 2 games last season, he got 75 targets. He should get 50+ if healthy. - WR4 Inman had an unexpectedly good season filling in for the injured Allen and Stevie Johnson (who I expect to be released). Inman is a RFA, and I expect he will stay with the Chargers. His role will be small barring more injuries, but it won't be zero. He had 97 targets last season and 63 targets in 2015. He is an excellent run blocker, which should ensure he continues to get snaps, especially in Lynn's offense. I can't see him getting fewer than 30 targets if healthy. b. It is unknown whether or not the Chargers will resign Woodhead, but it is very possible. When he played full seasons in 2013 and 2015, the Chargers' RB group averaged 151 targets per season. When he didn't in 2014 and 2016, they averaged just 108 targets. Big difference that would stand to reduce WR opportunities. c. It is possible that Gates will retire, but Hunter Henry already looked like a strong replacement in his rookie season. There doesn't seem to be much reason to expect a significant decrease in TE targets. 4. Observations on Williams from last season: a. He was noticeably running the wrong routes and/or making the wrong reads deep into last season, despite getting a lot of reps throughout preseason and the regular season. Rivers has played with a lot of WRs, including various guys signed off the street or out of a bargain bin at times, but I don't remember him visibly getting on any WR close to as often as he did with Williams last season. b. The thing that was frustrating to watch is that he left yards and plays on the field every week. He did not play up to his size and athletic ability and did not really seem to have that innate ability many great WRs have to adjust to the ball at the end of a route or in the air. As a result, he did not win many contested catches. Because he did not show the ability to run great routes, he was challenged to get good separation except on crossing routes where his defender is often impeded by others. c. It is worth noting that, despite his speed and size, the Chargers rarely targeted him deep; I don't mean 20+ yard throws, I mean true deep shots, like they attempted periodically with Benjamin and used to attempt regularly with VJax and Floyd. I think part of the reason for that was a lack of trust that Williams could go up and win a contested deep ball. Rivers showed in the past that he was willing to take those chances with VJax and Floyd, and they made those plays often. Williams rarely made those plays. Maybe another offseason fixes all of that stuff. IMO it is more likely that he is who we saw last season, a WR2/WR3 who can fill in reasonably well when needed due to injuries. I'm sure he will get better going forward, but I don't see any reason to expect a major leap forward. Putting it all together, I can't see Williams coming close to 119 targets and think that is the opposite of realistic, unless you are projecting similarly catastrophic injuries to other key targets as happened last season and also projecting that Woodhead doesn't return and the team doesn't find a poor man's replacement for his role. To reiterate, I like Williams. I stated above that I would rank him around dynasty WR30-35, but not much higher due to my expectation that his season targets should be projected around 90-100, barring a lot of circumstances such as described above. I liken him more to Malcom Floyd than VJax. Floyd was a very valuable NFL player but rarely valuable fantasy player. As a Chargers fan and dynasty owner, I hope he proves me wrong and exceeds my expectations.
  3. I think you are on an island here. There might be a few more castaways on that island, but not many.
  4. Wow. That is pretty remarkable.
  5. Sadly, I think this is true. It seems like the job should be attractive: Facilities are very good Compensation for HC and ACs is very good Top conference -- high visibility, national presence Strong base for recruting -- despite their struggles, Lowe and Gott both signed strong recruiting classes Basketball is king, not football Passionate fan base Tradition of excellence, albeit ancient history at this point -- I think State fans grossly overrate this factor Opportunity -- related to age of several other elite conference coaches, plus the 25 years of underperformance, which has moved the bar for success lower Raleigh is a great place to live And in the past two searches, coaches like Barnes, Calipari, Smart, Marshall, Turgeon, et al. all supposedly gave the job strong interest/consideration. Yet we ended up with Lowe and then Gott. At some point, the results speak for themselves. If the reason is because ADs Fowler and Yow botched those searches, that hardly inspires confidence in a different result given that Yow will apparently have to manage this search as well.
  6. Disagree. Rookie year (15 games each): Eifert 39/445/2 > Rudolph 26/249/3 (both 15 games) Second year playing = initial breakout year: Eifert 52/615/13 in 13 games > Rudolph 53/493/9 in 16 games Third year playing (8 games each): Eifert 29/394/5 > Rudolph 30/313/3 Those are the only reasonably fair comparison points, and all of them show Eifert outperforming Rudolph. Eifert has a much better ypr and TD rate. Eifert is almost a year younger, and is also arguably in a better situation. Rudolph is coming off a career year in his 6th season, but Eifert's rate of production was better, although close, as I posted above. IMO the only thing Rudolph has proven over Eifert so far is the ability to stay healthier. I don't believe that Eifert's past injuries are predictive, so I don't think this is enough to close the gap between them and put them in the same tier. I realize you are a Vikes homer, so you may have insight on Rudolph that I don't, but this is how I see that comparison. As an Eifert owner, I wouldn't consider trading him for Rudolph without a lot more value coming back to me.
  7. Not sure why you focused solely on the last little aside at the end of my post instead of the meat of it, which was his TD dependence. He needs an abnormal number of TDs just to keep pace and without them he's barely a TE1, much less a top option. TDs are quite variable and we haven't seen a long enough stretch of TD dominance yet for me to say that I'm confident he'll continue to score at that massive rate. Not sure why you think my bolded statement above doesn't encompass your comments on TD dependence. But since you crave a more detailed answer: I agree that Eifert's TD rate in 2015 is almost certainly not sustainable: 13 TDs on 74 targets in 750 snaps. However, his TD rate in 2016 seems sustainable: 5 TDs on 47 targets in 428 snaps. Eifert played 8 games in 2016, but he only played 15 snaps in his first game, coming off his offseason injury and surgery. He had 1/9/0 on 2 targets in that game. Toss those, and his other 7 games scales to 64/880/11 on 103 targets over 16 games. That would have outscored Kelce in non-PPR and trailed Kelce by about 3 total points in 1 PPR. Obviously, the issue with Eifert is whether or not he can ever play 16 games in a season (or more than 13, for that matter). Now consider that he lost his second year and essentially his fourth year to injuries, but mixed in a third year breakout in the middle. I don't see any reason to believe we have seen his best season at this point, at age 26. It simply comes down to health. All that said, it is perfectly reasonable to prefer Kelce. I really opened this tangent with more of a question on why Reed is ranked a tier higher, given my sense that his injuries have been more serious from a long term perspective. Disclosure: I own Eifert in both of my dynasty leagues; in one of them I also have Kelce, and in the other I also have Henry. Maybe I am biased in favor of Eifert (and Kelce) over Reed.
  8. I understand that most would agree that Eifert has struggled to stay on the field, and some would view his upside no better (and perhaps lower) than both Reed and Kelce, so that combination would lead to this sort of tier break. I posted the question mainly because @ZWK stated he didn't care as much about injuries as about quality of play and also stated that he highly values upside. That is a perfect combination to rank Eifert very high, and he is indeed ranked #4. I just found it interesting that having him a tier lower than the other two suggested that Eifert's relative lack of track record, which in this case seems to equate to a relative lack of health, held him back in comparison to the other two.
  9. Not just them. All of these current coaches are 64+: K, Roy, Larranaga, Pitino, Boeheim, Hamilton (didn't realize he is 68!). At least 4 of those coaches are HOFers, and the others (Hamilton and Larranaga) have been very good relative to their program histories. I'm sure many of those jobs will be appealing to other good coaches as replacements, but there will inevitably be some regression. Of course, I had similar thoughts about this opportunity when Gott was hired, and that didn't pan out...
  10. Minor quibble, but mildly surprised that Eifert is in a lower tier than Reed and Kelce. Reed: Production 2014-2016: 203/2103/17 in 37 regular season games = 13.9 ppg in PPR Best career seasonin 2015: 87/952/11 in 14 games = 248.2 fantasy points, 17.7 ppg in PPR Age 26, born in July 1990 Current situation: QB Cousins, HC Gruden Injury history: Missed 11 games and didn't start another 18 games, so presumably played many games below 100%. Multiple injuries, including multiple leg, multiple shoulder, and multiple concussions. Eifert: Production 2014-2016: 84/1046/18 in 22 regular season games = 13.5 ppg in PPR Best career season in 2015: 52/615/13 in 13 games = 191.5 fantasy points, 14.7 ppg in PPR Age 26, born in September 1990 Current situation: QB Dalton, HC Lewis Injury history: Missed 26 games and didn't start another 7 games, so clearly played several games below 100%. Multiple injuries, including elbow, back, neck, ankle, and one reported concussion. Most (15) missed games were due todue to dislocated elbow in 2014, which should not have long term effects. Expected to be healthy for training camp. His PPG above is definitely dragged down by a number of partial games. Kelce: Production 2014-2016: 224/2862/14 in 48 regular season games = 12.4 ppg in PPR Best career season in 2016: 85/1125/4 in 16 games = 221.5 fantasy points, 13.8 ppg in PPR Injury history: Missed 0 games and didn't start 6 games, but 5 of those were in 2014; I'm not sure if that indicates he played at less than 100% or just hadn't won the starting job by that point. No significant injuries that I know of. Age 27, born in October 1989 Current situation: QB Smith, HC Reid You also posted: So I'm curious what drives you to the tier difference for Eifert. Eifert has clearly missed a lot more games, but he has generally been as good or better than Kelce when he played, and his injuries seem less concerning for long term than Reed's injuries (or at least no worse). It's a minor difference, just curious on rationale.
  11. Conflicting reports that Gottfried has been fired immediately or will be fired at the conclusion of the season. The latter report claims State has sent out feelers to Archie Miller, which State has generically denied (haven't contacted any coaches) in a manner that leaves open the possibility that State's people could have reached out to Miller's people. Given the reports are out, I would like State to cut to the chase and fire him. He has obviously lost the team, if he ever had it. It is at least possible they would compete harder for an interim coach. Two straight State MBB coaching searches have been disasters... could the third time be the charm? Hoping against hope...
  12. 14 position players x 12 teams suggests something like 18 QBs, 60 RBs, 70 WRs, and 20 TEs kept. Obviously, those numbers would vary some, but the fact that he may be kept as one of 70-ish WRs kept in those leagues of yours doesn't really get at what has been discussed recently in this thread. This tangent started when @jacobo_moses said he drafted Gordon in round 8 as WR44 in a 16 team dynasty IDP startup, then went on to draft Mitchell 8 picks later in the 8th round, meaning the Gordon pick was no later than pick #120. I have never played IDP, so hard for me to accurately forecast the IDP players drafted by that point, but I'd guess at the time of that Gordon pick there had been 43 WRs, 9 QBs, 28 RBs, 10 TEs (assuming TE required), 30 defensive players, or something like that. If true, I think that is a major overreach. YMMV. Regardless, the conversation would have been quite different if it started with someone saying he drafted him as WR60+.
  13. at drafting Gordon in round 8
  14. Preferred order for me is Sheldon, Brooke, Shirley, John. If Brooke doesn't make it back from LCK, I would probably choose whoever does over John.
  15. Agree Gott will be fired. The only good thing about this dismal season is that it has removed any doubt that it is necessary. On top of the terrible on court performance, he apparently had words with Anya in practice, leading him to suspend Anya for the FSU game. It wouldn't have made a difference in the outcome, but Anya is the first player who will complete 4 years under Gott, and he seems to be an easygoing happy guy... if he is having words with Gott, then he has probably lost the team (if he ever had it). As stated, Archie is a popular choice on State message boards. I'd be fine with that hire. It is definitely unfortunate that Yow will have to make this hire so close to retirement. Her handling of the last MBB head coaching search was probably the worst part of her tenure. Sigh. Life as a State fan =