Just Win Baby

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About Just Win Baby

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  • Birthday 11/12/1968

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    San Diego Chargers

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  1. See my later post. I think Allen would lead in snaps, followed by Williams, Benjamin, and Inman in that order. I would expect all of them to get snaps in the slot, but probably more snaps there for Allen than in the past. I could see ~100 targets for Williams.
  2. Expanding on my previous post a bit. Here are Tyrell's current ranks among WRs: #29T in receptions #31T in receiving TDs (more on this below) #11 in receiving yards #15 in receiving yards per game #6T in 20+ yard receptions #6T in 40+ yard receptions #23T in first down receptions #24 in first down percentage #9 in DYAR #8 in DVOA #17 in overall PFF grade Using one of my PPR dynasty leagues as a proxy, he is currently ranked #19 in total points and #28 in ppg. All of this is despite the fact that he is still raw and not close to reaching his ceiling. I have seen Rivers correct him a few times for not running his route properly, including once where he would have had a TD had he done so. He also ran a poor fade route once where with a better route he would have had a TD. Speaking of TDs, he only has 2, but he is tied for 3rd in red zone targets with 11, and he has caught 8 of them for 44 yards and 3 first downs, but no TDs. It seems inevitable that he will convert some of these. He obviously has elite physical tools, so it is simply a matter of polishing his route running and improving his understanding of the position and chemistry with Rivers. All of that should come with more reps, which he will definitely get the rest of this season, with Allen and Stevie out. The key dynasty question is likely what his outlook is for the next few years. On that: - He is under contract to SD through 2017 but would still be a RFA at that point. My guess is they will sign/extend him for at least a few more years. - Rivers is under contract through 2020 and seems a bit less likely to decline than other older QBs because he has been so durable and he doesn't run or rely upon athleticism. - Future coaching staff is unknown, since McCoy might be in the process of saving his job. Regardless, I can't see any staff purposely reducing his role. - So it comes down to the other WRs. Going into next season, I see Allen as the WR1 (assuming he is healthy), Tyrell as WR2, Benjamin as WR3, and Inman as WR4. Henry will be TE1 and Gordon RB1. Hard to judge if they will bring Woodhead back, but I suspect they might do so, since he would likely come at a reasonable price. (I think Stevie will not be back.) That is a lot of competition for targets, but I would expect Williams to see ~100 targets, which is roughly equivalent to what he is averaging this season (~6.4 per game). The competition for targets is the only negative and likely the only thing that will keep him out of the top 20 fantasy WRs. But I see him as a top 30 dynasty WR right now.
  3. He is #12 in receiving yards, #7 in qualifiers for YPC, and #9 in YAC. He's on pace for 1202 receiving yards, which would be the most for any Chargers WR since 1995. And all this despite the fact that he is still a bit raw. He isn't close to his ceiling yet. This Chargers passing offense is going to be unstoppable next season if Allen is back healthy and they decide to re-sign Woodhead. How does an opposing defense defend Allen, Williams, Benjamin, Henry, and Woodhead all at the same time? Not possible.
  4. 2 wins in a row, in games in which the starting OL missed a total of 1 snap (Barksdale against DEN). I doubt the Chargers OL has played 99%+ of the offensive snaps in 2 consecutive games since the last time they won 2 in a row in 2014.
  5. I should have also included McCoil in the list. He has been an excellent free agent pickup. I agree that Benjamin was disappointing as a punt returner, which is really bizarre given how good he was as a returner in Cleveland. I can't help but wonder how much of the difference is related to coaching. As for Benjamin's usage on offense, that is a function of playcalling. Per PFR, he has been targeted deep 10 times in 7 games and he has 4/156/1 receiving on those targets. He also drew a defensive penalty against Denver on a play that likely would have otherwise been a deep TD. In comparison, last year Floyd had 10/367/2 on 36 deep targets in 15 games, per PFR. So they targeted Floyd deep quite a bit more often, yet Benjamin is still on pace to come reasonably close to Floyd's output on those targets. Benjamin has 49 targets, so it has obviously been a conscious choice by the coaches to target him more on crossing routes than deep. He has had a few drops and one particularly bad fumble on offense, but he is catching more than 71% of his targets and has been reasonably effective overall. I am hopeful Benjamin is still building chemistry with Rivers and will have fewer bad plays (drops, muffs, fumbles) going forward.
  6. In his first draft, Telesco drafted 1 player who has been above average -- Allen -- and he has struggled to stay on the field. Yes, 2 others he drafted have been starters, but Fluker has been below average and Teo has been among the worst in the league at his position. In his second draft, Telesco again drafted 1 player who has been above average but struggled to stay on the field -- Verrett. Attaochu looked like he was emerging last season but has been unexpectedly moved to second string this season. Otherwise, no impact from this draft. In his third draft, Telesco made a very questionable move to move up and draft Gordon and blew a third rounder on Mager, though he did get good value at his other 3 picks (Perryman, Emanuel, Philon). I agree that Perryman looks like he has potential to be a long term quality starter, though not likely a 3 down player. I suppose you will characterize this as underrating these drafts.
  7. Same here. IMO Telesco's previous drafts were overrated, especially by many Chargers fans, but it seems he knocked it out of the park in the 2016 draft. I count 2 Pro Bowl caliber players from Telesco's first 3 drafts combined, Allen and Verrett, and both of those guys have had difficulty staying healthy. I count 3 Pro Bowl caliber players from the 2016 draft -- Bosa, Henry, and Brown. And it could get better, since we are only 7 games into the careers of these players, so it is far too early to tell how good the others will be. Telesco also complemented the 2016 draft with a very good group of free agents/waiver pickups -- Slauson, Mebane, Hayward, Reid, and Benjamin have all been good additions. If the team hadn't blown the KC and NO games, Telesco would be in contention for exec of the year.
  8. He is the 3 down back by default, due to Woodhead's injury. It is temporary unless he plays better going forward.
  9. For someone who makes reference to 'scouting', you don't seem to have much of a clue on how offense works.
  10. Off the top of my head, I remember two times when he was targeted at the goal line/end zone and didn't make the plays. Once in the first game (?), he ran a fade but ran a poor route. The other time Rivers threw it to him on a play snapped from the 1 yard line, and he couldn't get one yard. Bottom line, he is raw. Winning in the tighter confines of the red zone/end zone is easier with savvy/experience, but he doesn't have that yet. Meanwhile, the Chargers have other talented red zone options. The TDs will come, particularly next season and beyond.
  11. 0.5 PPR, starting Tyrell, Maclin, and Michael Thomas over Fitz and Demaryius.
  12. For dynasty, IMO the clear top tier of RBs right now is Bell, Johnson, Gurley, and Elliott, in no particular order. After that, there is a large group without much clear separation IMO, so there will be a lot of variance in different rankings. But I don't see any reason why Ware shouldn't be viewed as being in that next group. I assume a couple RBs from the 2017 draft will push into the top 10 early, and that might be enough to keep Ware out, but, if so, not by much.
  13. Feel the same way. Same here.
  14. I watched the game, first time watching the Packers this season. I didn't see anything wrong with his mechanics or timing. I did see numerous examples where he had no one open to throw to. The biggest takeaway I had from this game is that Nelson and Cobb are overrated. Without an actual RB? I don't think so.