Just Win Baby

  • Content count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

1,307 Excellent

About Just Win Baby

  • Rank
  • Birthday 11/12/1968

Profile Information

  • Gender
  • Location
    San Diego

Previous Fields

  • Favorite NFL Team
    San Diego Chargers

Recent Profile Visitors

16,642 profile views
  1. And now it comes out that the Government has been misleading the public about the extent of the opioid 'crisis'. From CDC Admits Rx Opioid Deaths ‘Significantly Inflated’:
  2. More on this study from What the JAMA Opioid Study Didn’t Find:
  3. I'm a bit surprised by that. I wonder if that ADP has fully accounted for Watkins coming to the Chiefs. I guess I'm more surprised by Hill at 19 than Kelce at 31.
  4. Kelce is TE1 for dynasty. As such, he is worth more than Hill and Watkins.
  5. Good post. But I'm not sure I agree on the bolded. Last season, KC scored 415 points, compared to 478 for the Rams. Both teams had 3 defensive TDs and 1 special teams TD; the Rams had a safety, KC did not. Crediting 7 points per TD for convenience, KC's offense generated 387 points, compared to 448 for the Rams. Huge gap there. Last season, KC had 6007 yards from scrimmage on offense. In comparison, LAR had 5784. So KC had 223 more yards. More than half of that delta is from week 16, when both teams rested a lot of starters. Perhaps it is more relevant to focus on the passing game and consider which offense is better for Watkins specifically. Last season, the Rams passed for 3831 yards and 28 TDs, compared to 4104 and 26 for KC, which is roughly a wash from a fantasy perspective. However, since this thread is about WRs, consider that the Rams targeted their WRs 321 times in 518 pass attempts (62%), compared to 242 times in 543 passing attempts for KC (45%). Huge gap there. To be sure, that was influenced by personnel, and KC seems likely to increase its WR targets with Watkins added to the offense... but it is also true that they still have a huge target hog in Kelce and that Reid offenses typically do not provide big target numbers to a single WR, much less to two of them. Top 2 WRs in targets per season in Reid's HC career: 2017 - Hill (105), Wilson (62) = 167 2016 - Hill (83), Maclin (76) = 159 2015 - Maclin (124), Wilson (57) = 181 2014 - Bowe (95), DeAnthony Thomas (31) = 126 2013 - Bowe (103), McCluster (83) = 186 2012 - Maclin (122), Jackson (87) = 209 2011 - Jackson (104), Maclin (96) = 200 2010 - Maclin (115), Jackson (95) = 210 2009 - Jackson (117), Maclin (91) = 208 2008 - Jackson (120), Kevin Curtis (63) = 183 2007 - Kevin Curtis (135), Reggie Brown (111) = 246 2006 - Reggie Brown (88), Stallworth (70) = 158 2005 - Owens (92, in 7 games), Reggie Brown (79) = 171 2004 - Owens (127), Pinkston (63) = 190 2003 - Thrash (92), Pinkston (86) = 178 2002 - Pinkston (113), Thrash (107) = 220 2001 - Thrash (108), Pinkston (84) = 192 2000 - Charles Johnson (100), Small 94) = 194 1999 - Small (99), Charles Johnson (72) = 171 The 4 year stretch with Jackson and Maclin in Philly seems like a reasonable comparison in terms of having two quality WRs. That stretch could suggest that Hill and Watkins could be expected to split 210 targets or so... except that the best TE on those rosters was Celek, and Kelce is obviously better and thus will draw more targets. Had Watkins stayed in LA, there wouldn't have been any significant changes around him on offense. All of the players would move into their second season in the offense. In contrast, KC moves from Smith to Mahomes, and Watkins needs to learn and fit into a new offense and build chemistry with Mahomes. (Not saying that is hard for Watkins, just something he didn't have to do if he stayed.) So not sure it is fair to say Watkins is moving to a better offense. A lot of that depends on how good Mahomes is, and we don't know for sure about that yet.
  6. Can't keep Mebane. He was one of the absolute worst interior DL in the league last season, and his cap hit is $5.5M. But in my view, the plan to replace him was always via the 1.17 pick. What is Hankins' likely contract going to cost? If the Chargers could sign him within the cap savings provided by Liuget, I support that move. It sure seems from Telesco's press release that he plans to stick with Liuget, though.
  7. I was there with a few friends, in the 4th row right behind the on deck circle where the whole thing happened. Best sporting event I ever attended in person, and that is saying something. First of all, it was Yankees-Red Sox in Fenway on a Saturday afternoon, so great setting. The brawl happened early, and Varitek was immediately ejected, but ARod walked out and stood on first base. The umpires conferred and then threw him out and the crowd went nuts. And not only did the brawl happen, but the ending was amazing. In the bottom of the 8th, the Red Sox were down 10-8; with 2 outs, Ortiz singled, bringing Manny to the plate as the tying run; the Yankees brought in Rivera, and Manny flied out to the centerfield wall, just missing tying the game. Then, in the bottom of the 9th, still down 10-8, Nomar led off with a double, Nixon grounded out, and Millar singled to drive in Nomar and make it 10-9 with 1 out. Then Mueller hit a walk off 2 run homer off Rivera. Pandemonium. Great memory.
  8. Looks like they could save about $2.25M by cutting Williams and about $3.25M by cutting Beasley. And they have Switzer, who seems like he could slide right into Beasley's role, right? So maybe Beasley is at risk.
  9. Great, DT Liuget has been suspended the first 4 games for violating the drug policy. I was advocating for the team to keep him, not sure what to think now. If they cut him prior to June 1, they could save $6.5M against the 2018 cap. If they designate him as a post June 1 cut, they could save $8M against the 2018 cap by shifting $1.5M of the dead money to the 2019 cap. Given what I posted above, that suggests they would have up to $18.7M to spend without any other cuts (besides Mebane and Hairston) or restructures. I suppose they could do that and go after Suh. That doesn't really seem like Telesco's style, though. Or perhaps the team could push Liuget to restructure to open up more cap space. Thoughts?
  10. It wasn't just Chubb's pro day, it was the N.C. State pro day. There were several players there who will be drafted, not just Chubb.
  11. I'd much rather have DT Payne or even DT Hurst at that spot, given DT Vea was taken at 1.11.
  12. Salary cap update. First off, I prefer spotrac to overthecap. So this post uses spotrac data, other than for Hayward. Hayward’s new contract data is not yet updated there, so I pulled it from overthecap. We don’t yet have contract data for Pouncey or Phillips. More on that in a minute. Assuming that all 7 draft picks will make the final roster, the current top 42 contracts (42 to allow for the Pouncey and Phillips contracts) plus the cap slots for those 7 draft picks totals to $163,603,146. The Chargers adjusted cap for 2018 is $179,822,050. So that leaves a gap of $16,218,904. I'll round this to $16.2M for convenience. The Chargers currently have about $4.7M in dead cap money in 2018, so we are down to $11.5M. Let’s say Pouncey’s 2018 cap hit is $7.5M and Phillips’ is $3M. That leaves just $1M remaining after accounting for the current top 44 contracts and all 7 draft picks. Mebane should be released. That frees up $4.5M, although it also pulls a low contract of about $555K into the top 44. So the savings is roughly $4M, pushing available cap space to about $5M. That top 44 includes Hairston. GIven that the team resigned Schofield and still has Tevi and Barksdale on the roster, I assume Hairston will be released. That frees up about $1.5M, but it also pulls a low contract of about $555K into the top 44. So the savings is roughly $1M, pushing available cap space to $6M. That is $6M available after accounting for the top 44 contracts, and the cost of the 7 draft picks. I know Telesco will need to reserve some space for injured reserve and the practice squad. So this suggests they are about done in free agency barring further roster moves. That is with Cardale Jones as the only backup QB and without signing Gates or Toomer or any other free agents. It is also without restructuring any other contracts (e.g., Liuget, Rivers?), which could free up more space, and without releasing players like Liuget, Benjamin, and/or Barksdale. Should any of those players be released, substantial additional cap space would be freed up. (IMO Benjamin should stay, and Barksdale should only be released if/when the team is confident it has upgraded the RT position via the draft, free agency, or others on the roster.) Liuget's suspension makes him a much stronger candidate for release IMO. That would free up about $6.5M or $8M (if designated a post June 1 release) that the team could use to sign a veteran DT. I doubt they can afford Suh, but maybe Hankins. That would yield a core roster that looks something like this: Offense (22) QB - Rivers, Jones RB - Gordon, Ekeler, Farrow FB - Watt WR - Allen, Tyrell Williams, Mike Williams, Benjamin, Davis TE - Henry, Green, Culkin OL - LT Okung, LG Feeney, C Pouncey, RG Lamp, RT Barksdale, C/G Pulley, T Schofield, T Tevi Defense (19) Edge - Bosa, Ingram, McCain Interior - Liuget/TBD veteran, Philon, Square LB - Sam LB Emanuel, Mike LB Perryman, Will LB Brown, Pullard, Dzubnar CB - Hayward, Williams, Verrett, Davis S - SS Addae, FS King, Phillips, Jenkins Special Teams (3) PK - Sturgis P - Kaser LS - Windt Looking at my previous post on draft strategy: Vea or Payne would slot into the interior DL as a starter instead of Philon, which should make him more effective in a rotational role. An early round LB could push Pullard off the roster and Emanuel or Perryman to the bench. At least we could hope for that, despite Bradley's stubborn usage of Pullard last year despite his poor play. Pushing Pullard off the roster would also open up a roster spot for another position, like another edge defender. An early round RT would presumably push Barksdale off the roster and free up an additional $3.2M or so. That would also open up another roster spot for a 9th OL. A mid to late round RB could join the group shown or possibly push Farrow off the roster. Pushing Farrow off the roster would also open up a roster spot for another position... Gates? I figure 1-2 DT, 1-2 LB, 1 RT, 1 RB, and at least 1 DB will be drafted. Maybe also an interior OL, unless the team expects Clark to make the final roster. Thoughts? How should the Chargers spend their remaining cap? ETA: Updated post-Liuget suspension, and also to account for current 2018 dead money.
  13. And how many times has an Andy Reid quarterback produced that 'floor'? Once - McNabb in 2004. That is in 19 seasons for Reid, with his primary QBs having been McNabb, Vick, and Smith.
  14. @Stinkin Ref's take on Goff is really bizarre. I get liking Mahomes; that doesn't have to equate to unnecessarily disparaging another young QB.
  15. From what source? I haven't seen any mention of this. I think the Chargers need to draft a RB, but probably not until the 3rd round at the absolute earliest, and I would prefer 4th or 5th round, given their defensive needs. So I wasn't expecting Jones to be a candidate for them. ETA: I saw that you said it was posted in the Jones thread.