Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Just Win Baby

Members
  • Content Count

    19,816
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Just Win Baby

  1. 2017 season is in the books. New year, new thread. 2017 thread here.
  2. And rather passive-aggressive...
  3. What makes you think it is solved? It isn't.
  4. North Carolina has UNC, NC State, and Duke all within a tight cluster, with the Research Triangle Park in the middle. It's not on par with Silicon Valley, but it is in the next tier of technology hubs. Comparing it to Silicon Valley, it offers some significant advantages: cost of living and housing are much lower; taxes are lower; no significant risk of natural disasters like earthquakes and fires.
  5. Just Win Baby

    Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

    FWIW, PFF receiving grades: Allen: 2018: 83.6 2017: 89.7 2016: 85.3 (1 game) 2015: 78.8 2014: 74.9 2013: 86.4 Hopkins: 2018: 90.9 2017: 90.3 2016: 76.8 2015: 90.7 2014: 83.6 2013: 69.0 Hopkins has been better in 4 of 5 seasons, excluding Allen's 2016 season in which he played 2 quarters. Hopkins also has 3 seasons with grades better than Allen's best season grade. Clear edge to Hopkins here. Some career regular season statistics for consideration: Allen (all data from PFF except red zone data, which is from PFR): 63 games 534 targets 384 receptions = 71.9% catch percentage 4860 receiving yards = 12.7 yards per reception and 77.1 yards per game 26 receiving TDs = 4.9% TD percentage 15 red zone TDs on 64 red zone targets 1817 YAC = 4.7 YAC per reception 250 first downs = 46.8% first down percentage 26 drops = 4.9% drop percentage 5 fumbles 16 penalties drawn Hopkins (all data from PFF except red zone data, which is from PFR): 88 games 817 targets 493 receptions = 60.3% catch percentage 6960 receiving yards = 14.1 yards per reception and 79.1 yards per game 44 receiving TDs = 5.4% TD percentage 22 red zone targets on 88 red zone targets 1679 YAC = 3.4 YAC per reception 358 first downs = 43.8% first down percentage 20 drops = 2.4% drop percentage 6 fumbles 28 penalties drawn This data seems to suggest the following: Hopkins has better hands - half the drop rate despite having poorer QB play. (Whether or not Fitz/Hoyer QB play was underrated, there is no question that Allen has had better QB play.) Hopkins runs deeper routes - higher ypr with less YAC/rec. That combined with poorer QB play could explain the gap in catch percentage. They seem to be about the same in the red zone - about 1 RZ target per game and about a 25% conversion rate. Hopkins seems like a stronger deep threat - he has twice as many TDs from outside the red zone, in addition to his higher ypr. On the subject of contested catches, playerprofiler.com has data for 2017-2018: Allen: 2018: 50% on 10 targets 2017: 41.7% on 24 targets Hopkins: 2018: 54.8% on 31 targets 2017: 44.2% on 52 targets That shows Hopkins has been slightly better on contested catches, but on much higher volume. The volume could suggest that Allen has superior quickness and/or runs better routes and thus gets better separation. But it could also simply be that the Chargers have much stronger complementary targets than the Texans, which leads the Texans to force the ball to Hopkins more frequently. Altogether, Hopkins seems to be clearly better, even though I also think highly of Allen.
  6. Just Win Baby

    [DYNASTY] Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville

    This is why I brought it up previously, when you posted 17 times in 2 days about it. Discussion is fine and encouraged, but rehashing that many times in a condensed period is unnecessary and bombs the thread.
  7. My wife has been disabled from chronic pain for 20 years. She is in chronic pain support groups, we are on chronic pain mailing lists, we have been to pain conferences, and I have read books and hundreds of articles on the subject. I don't doubt there is a link. However, this is my overall take on the situation: There will always be a low percentage of patients who suffer opioid use disorder. The best way to minimize that is through proper care administered by appropriately trained providers. But that number of patients will never drop to zero. But opioids are hugely beneficial, and that small percentage of patients should not be a basis for harming the much larger population of patients who use their opioids without suffering OUD. As in every field, there will also always be some bad actors, in this case healthcare providers prescribing opioids irresponsibly or outright illegally. However, the Government's attack on opioid prescribing over the past several years has brought it down sharply - to an 18 year low - and put scrutiny in place that should minimize those bad actors going forward. We have gone beyond the point of diminishing returns on that front. That same Government attack on opioid prescribing has done considerable harm to chronic pain patients like my wife and to healthcare providers, such as a highly respected pain specialist my wife saw in California, who was forced into retirement by the DEA in a misguided investigation into his practice. Millions of patients and providers have been harmed. Millions. This harm takes many forms: increased suffering, reduced quality of life, stigmatization and mistreatment, even death, as some patients are driven to suicide when losing access to their medication. The Government has done this in a poorly informed and poorly conceived attempt to address a problem that is relatively minor when you really dig into the numbers, especially relative to those who have been harmed. (And relative to those killed by NSAIDs, alcohol, etc.). I'm sure that very few people are surprised by this (our Government applying inappropriate policy). The worst thing is that they pledge to continue down the same stupid path. Unfortunately, they will probably never stop until and unless the media and the public come to understand the real truth of the situation and force them to stop.
  8. So, yeah, based on everything I just posted, I think this is all generally off base. Hope you find the facts I posted helpful in your quest to better understand this "crisis" since you seem to like to occasionally post about it.
  9. If by "pain killer" you mean opioids, consider this. Hopefully you realize the breadth of what medications are classified as opioids. For example, Tylenol with Codeine, Robitussin AC and several other cough syrups, and Maxiflu and several other flu medications all contain Codeine, and thus all qualify. I don't know where to find data to determine what portion of opioid prescriptions are relatively benign versions like these. It is also true that people who had many different kinds of surgeries (dental and medical) would be prescribed opioids on a short term basis for pain. In 2009, 48 million people had inpatient surgery in the US, and, as of 2010, more than 50 million outpatient surgeries were performed per year in the US. Not sure if those numbers include dental surgeries. Regardless, this shows that, as of 2010, ~100M surgeries were performed in the US. I'm sure that is a significant contributor to how many opioid prescriptions are written in a given year. And, of course, we have a large population of patients who suffer from chronic pain. As of 2011, it was 100M Americans. If 1 in 5 Americans receive at least one opioid prescription every year, that is currently about 65M Americans. Given we have 100M Americans in chronic pain, more than 100M surgeries performed in America every year (which no doubt overlaps with the chronic pain patients), and opioid prescriptions include many cough and flu medications, I'm really not sure why anyone would be surprised by that number. It is just another sound bite that is framed to sound high without applying context.
  10. From the same article linked above: Again, a source that concludes a lower percentage than quoted by @matttyl
  11. This data is disputable, if not outright debunked. From: New York Times Succumbs to The False Narrative Driving Opioid Policy-and Deaths Misuse rate of 0.6%... Here is the study: Postsurgical prescriptions for opioid naive patients and association with overdose and misuse: retrospective cohort study Objective: To quantify the effects of varying opioid prescribing patterns after surgery on dependence, overdose, or abuse in an opioid naive population. Participants: 1,015,116 opioid naive patients undergoing surgery. Results: 568,612 (56.0%) of patients received postoperative opioids, and a code for abuse was identified for 5,906 patients (0.6%, 183 per 100 000 person years). ZERO POINT SIX PERCENT From the same Pain Medicine article linked previously: So... 0.27%, median = 0.5%, and median = 4.5% for OUD. There are two main things to take away here: There is no single consensus on these rates. This is largely because of the complexities involved and the difficulty in actually isolating all contributing factors in patient/study populations. The figures quoted at the beginning of this post are very likely overstated, and significantly so on misuse.
  12. Once again, context is important to avoid sensationalization. From Are Prescription Opioids Driving the Opioid Crisis? Assumptions vs Facts: So, yes, I will now tell you that the "crisis" is not because "we over-prescribe it here."
  13. This is misleading as phrased. ~40% *involve* prescription opioids, but are not solely *from* prescription opioids. Take 2016, for example, which is the last year for which finalized CDC data exists: 42,249 opioid deaths 17,087 prescription opioid deaths = 40.4% But: 4,055 deaths involving both prescription opioids AND other synthetic narcotics 7,263 deaths involving any opioid AND cocaine 4,184 deaths involving cocaine AND other synthetic narcotics Leaving 3,089 deaths involving cocaine AND opioids other than other synthetic narcotics, most of which were presumably prescription opioids 3,416 deaths involving any opioid AND methamphetamine 1,042 deaths involving methamphetamine AND other synthetic narcotics Leaving 2,374 deaths involving methamphetamine AND opioids other than other synthetic narcotics, most of which were presumably prescription opioids It is not possible to tell from the data how much overlap exists between 1, 2.2, and 3.2 here, but it is likely not significant. Assuming half of 2.2 and 3.2 overlap, which seems conservative, we have a total of ~6,787 deaths involving prescription opioids AND other synthetic narcotics, cocaine, and/or methamphetamine. So the deaths that might reasonably be solely attributed to prescription opioids based on the CDC data is ~10,300, which is 24.4% of opioid deaths. But guess what? CDC data includes intentional suicide, intentional homicide, and deaths for which accidental vs. intentional cause could not be determined. From Are Prescription Opioids Driving the Opioid Crisis? Assumptions vs Facts: If we are conservative and use the lower end of the bolded range - 20% - we are down to 8,240 unintentional prescription overdose deaths not involving other synthetic narcotics, cocaine, or meth. That is 19.5% of opioid deaths. And that was just quick analysis of low hanging fruit... there is also overlap with simultaneous use of heroin, benzodiazepines, antidepressants, and alcohol, all of which would further lower that number of unintentional prescription overdose deaths not involving the abuse of other substances. For example, from the same article linked above: We also know there is double counting that inflates the CDC data. From the same Pain Medicine article linked above: Here is another article, from Newsweek: There are other sources, for those who actually want to understand the issue. It is also worth noting this, from the same Pain Medicine article linked above: So it is actually possible that prescribing aspirin, ibuprofen, and similar NSAIDs may kill more Americans annually than prescription opioids. Should we ban or severely restrict those medications? You see, this is a complex issue that requires deeper understanding than quick snippets such as the one I quoted at the top of this post.
  14. Just Win Baby

    *** Official 2018 Chargers Thread ****

    Absolutely. He will now have missed 22 of 64 (34%) possible career games after this season, plus however many playoff games the Chargers play this postseason. I believe this also means he will have finished 3 of his 4 seasons on IR. I don't dislike him, but I hope the Chargers let him walk this offseason. His skills are not strong enough to have to justify keeping him when he can't stay on the field. Pullard and Jatavis Brown will get his snaps, and that might not be such a bad thing. Pullard was bad last year but looked much better in preseason. Brown looked great on Sunday. Meanwhile, they signed Tre'Von Johnson to fill the roster spot. If he is even active, I expect he will play special teams, not LB.
  15. Just Win Baby

    Eli Manning HoF?

    He was definitely never top 5. Not when his career overlapped with all of Favre, Warner, Peyton, Brady, Brees, Rivers, Roethlisberger, and Rodgers. At least 5 of them were playing and were better than Eli in every season of his career. That's without even getting into guys like Romo, Ryan, Wilson, Stafford, Newton, et al.
  16. Just Win Baby

    Eli Manning HoF?

    Another thing that shouldn't matter but may help Eli is timing. Looking at this by HOF induction timeline: Aikman and Moon were inducted in the HOF class of 2006. Favre and Stabler were the next QBs inducted, in the HOF class of 2016. Warner was in the HOF class of 2017. Peyton will be in the HOF class of 2021 (first ballot). It seems safe to assume that Brady, Brees, Rivers, and Roethlisberger will all play in 2019 and maybe longer. If Eli retires after this season, he will be eligible in the HOF class of 2024, after a period of 17 years in which just 4 QBs were inducted, only 3 of whom played in 2001 or later. (Assuming they don't come to their senses and induct Ken Anderson before then.) Lock/potential HOF peers Brady, Brees, Rivers, Roethlisberger, and Rodgers will not yet be eligible based on the assumption above. I could easily see the voters putting Eli in first ballot in that scenario.
  17. Just Win Baby

    Eli Manning HoF?

    Eli is a lock: He will retire top 10 in completions, passing yards, passing TDs, and total offense. He is currently top 7 all time in all of those. He led his team to 2 Super Bowl wins, and he played well in clutch situations in both of those runs, leading his team from behind in the final 1-2 minutes in each championship. He won 2 Super Bowl MVP awards. His clutch play wasn't limited to those postseason runs - he is #9 all time in game winning drives and #11 in comebacks. He was uncommonly durable. Rivers will probably pass him in consecutive starts, pushing him to the 3rd longest streak of consecutive starts at QB in NFL history, despite being sacked 391 times and counting. He is apparently well liked by his coaches and teammates. No off field issues. Won the Walter Payton MOY award. More importantly, he is well liked by the media, including HOF voters, and he played 15 seasons in the media capital of the world for a historic NFL franchise. His last name is Manning. There are multiple routes to the HOF. Some players get there based on signature accomplishments, others get there for long, sustained excellence. The trap people often fall into is trying to compare someone in one group to HOFers in the other group and saying they don't measure up, as if there is only one path. And stop with the silly comparisons. Any player with all of the stuff above would make the HOF. Guys like Dilfer, Palmer, Testaverde, et al. may have one or two things on the list, but that isn't enough. I am not an Eli fan at all. But there is no debate about him making it. He's a
  18. Just Win Baby

    Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

    I co-own a team in a 12 PPR dynasty league with @Bruce Hammond. In June, we traded Mixon and TE Everett for Chubb and Cobb. We wanted Cobb to help us out at WR, but I would have traded Mixon for Chubb straight up if necessary. So I definitely don't think there is any issue with Chubb being ranked higher. I do not think I would prefer any of the others to Mixon, though.
  19. Just Win Baby

    [DYNASTY] Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville

    He definitely makes some accurate throws. The questions about his accuracy are really about three things IMO: Can he read defenses well enough to attempt the correct throws? Can he do that fast enough to get the ball out with regularity before he gets hit or before he feels compelled to scramble? Can he throw with accuracy on all routes (where expected accuracy obviously varies by route and distance)? I definitely do not believe that his college performance showed that he checks all these boxes well enough to become a long term NFL starter. I'm not saying he cannot do it, I'm saying the jury is out. I also am of the opinion that QBs drafted in the first round nowadays have typically shown more on college film in these areas than Jackson has.
  20. Just Win Baby

    *** Official 2018 Chargers Thread ****

    This is a blow...
  21. Just Win Baby

    *** Official 2018 Chargers Thread ****

    I could see them beating any one of those teams. They certainly have enough talent to do it, especially if Bosa is back.
  22. Just Win Baby

    *** Official 2018 Chargers Thread ****

    I hope not. They need him for the last 5 games. It would be ideal if he could come back in 2 weeks and play a limited snap count in advance of being able to play more snaps at PIT.
  23. Just Win Baby

    [DYNASTY] Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville

    Jackson's career rate is sub-60%, and he never had a single season where he completed 60%. Russell Wilson completed 72.8% of his passes in his senior season at Wisconsin and 60.9% of his passes overall in his college career, so he was demonstrably better and didn't meet either criteria (sub-60% for career and every college season). Ryan is closer, since his career completion percentage was 59.91%, but he had 2 college seasons above 60% (though not by much). There is an interesting connection between them. Ryan's head coach in college was Tom O'Brien, and O'Brien was Wilson's HC in his 3 seasons at NC State, during which he was sub-60% (though close) each season. Then Wilson went to Wisconsin for one season and completed 72.8% of his passes. Maybe this illustrates that looking at completion percentage is not meaningful since it is so heavily influenced by scheme/playcalling/coaching.
  24. Just Win Baby

    [DYNASTY] Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville

    Jackson had a career completion percentage in college of 57.0%, and his best season was his last, at 59.1%. In the current passing era, say the last 15-20 years or so, have there been any QBs who were sub-60% passers in college who ended up being "very good" NFL QBs? Same issue applies to Josh Allen (career 56.2%). I don't know the answer to this question, so it isn't a loaded question. Jake Locker (54.0), Tyrod Taylor (57.2), Trevor Siemian (58.9), and Jacoby Brissett (59.5) all fit the criteria, and none are/were good NFL passers. It's a small sample size, and Jackson is more athletic and was drafted higher than most of these guys, so it probably doesn't mean much, though I seem to recall Football Outsiders having done some work to show that college completion percentage is among the strongest predictors of NFL QB success.
  25. Just Win Baby

    [DYNASTY] Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville

    Sure, but was it worth you making 17 posts in this thread about during the last 48 hours? I think that is probably the main reason you are getting some snark.