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Just Win Baby

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Everything posted by Just Win Baby

  1. When did the Saints become a hated team? I must have missed that memo... or... maybe, just maybe, you have a persecution complex.
  2. Just Win Baby

    *** Official 2019 Chargers Thread ****

    Here is how the defense performed in 2018, per PFR: Overall: #22T in opponent offensive plays (981) #8 in points allowed (329 = 20.6 ppg) - but that includes 4 TDs scored by opposing defenses and special teams; so really the defense gave up less than 19 ppg #10 in percentage of opponent drives that ending in an offensive score (33.7%) #9 in yards allowed (5339 = 333.7 ypg) #12 in yards allowed per play (5.44) - up from #4 in 2017 (5.91) #10 in first downs allowed (311) #16T in turnovers forced (20) #17 in percentage of opponent drives ending in a turnover (11.8%) #18 in 3rd down conversion percentage allowed (39.1%) #16T in 4th down conversion percentage allowed (55.0%) #5T in percentage of TDs allowed on opponent drives into the red zone (50.0%) This defense did not live up to its potential or expectations. Even at the end of the season, it seems that perception was that the defense was better than it really was. But it gave up more yards and a lot more points than last season. One reason for that was a dropoff in turnovers forced from 27 to 20. Obviously, injuries had a significant impact: CB Verrett may have been the starting outside CB opposite Hayward, but he missed the entire season. Starting WLB White missed 13 games. Starting DT Liuget missed 10 games. Starting DE Bosa missed 9 games. Starting MLB Perryman missed 7 games. CB Trevor Williams, the starting outside CB opposite Hayward after Verrett's injury (and who may have started over Verrett anyway), missed 7 games. Starting DT Mebane missed 4 games. WLB/MLB Brown, who became a starter after injuries to White and Perryman, missed the final game. That is a lot of missed games from talented players. The red zone TD percentage allowed illustrates that this was a classic "bend, don't break" defense, which appears to be Bradley's general philosophy. Pass defense: #18 (18th fewest) in opponent pass attempts (548) #9 in opponent passer rating (89.1) #14 in opponent completion percentage (64.1%) #9 in opponent passing yards (3646) #9 in opponent YPA (7.1) #12 in opponent passing TDs (23) #11 in opponent TD percentage (4.2%) #15T in interceptions (13) #16 in interception percentage (2.37%) #19T in sacks (38) #11 in sack percentage (6.5%) In 2017, the Chargers were top 5 in most of these pass defense categories. In 2018, the passing defense dropped off. The injuries mentioned above were a significant factor, but it wasn't just that. Hayward was elite last season, and his play dropped off. But the biggest problem was at FS. Addae, who played well at SS last season, was moved to FS this season to accommodate moving James to SS. Addae was terrible in that role, and it really hurt the pass defense. It was a frustration that the coaches kept playing him there. He arguably cost the team the first Baltimore loss, by whiffing on his responsibility on the 68 yard TD pass... and that cost the Chargers the #1 overall seed in the AFC. Run defense: #11 (11th fewest) in opponent rushing attempts (395) #9 in rushing yards allowed (1693) #6T in rushing TDs allowed (11) #12 in yards per carry allowed (4.29) After allowing the second most rushing yards and the highest ypc in 2017, the rushing defense was significantly better this season. Some of this is presumably due to game script, and some is presumably due to the impact of James. Penalties: Per PFF, the Chargers committed 53 defensive penalties, of which 3 were declined or offset. The only player who really stands out is Ingram, who was called for 11 penalties, with 1 declined. Bottom line: As posted above, this defense did not live up to its potential or expectations. That had to do primarily with the high number of missed games, and, to a lesser degree, with playing players out of position, notably Addae at FS. Fortunately, it seems unlikely that level of concentrated injuries will continue, and the team should be able to make some roster changes to help assemble a group that better fits the defensive scheme. Thoughts?
  3. 2018 season is in the books. New year, new thread. 2018 thread here. It was a very good season, even though the final game was a disappointment. It was a serious lesson in how much every game matters; one more win might have changed things, since they would have been the #1 seed, with a first round bye, and not having to travel cross country 2 weeks in a row to play in cold weather.
  4. Just Win Baby

    *** Official 2019 Chargers Thread ****

    Depends on what you mean by soon. In 2018, Allen (136) had more than twice as many targets as Williams (66), and the TEs combined for just 71. In 2019, Tyrell will probably be gone, which vacates 65 targets, and Benjamin could also be gone, which would vacate another 24... but Henry averaged 63 targets per 16 games in his first 2 seasons, so the TEs will probably get more targets. And they will have a WR3 and WR4, we just don't know who they will be right now. Allen is under contract at very team friendly cap figures through the 2020 season. I don't see Williams surpassing him as the WR1 during that time. Williams has already become the top red zone threat, though, and that should continue.
  5. Just Win Baby

    *** Official 2019 Chargers Thread ****

    By the way, speaking of Chargers pass blocking, I recently posted this in another thread... here is where the Chargers pass blocking ranked in PFF team grades each season since Rivers became a starter: 2006 6T 2007 10 2008 26 2009 18 2010 24 2011 21 2012 27 2013 25 2014 20 2015 32 2016 26 2017 29 2018 31 He had great pass blocking in his first 2 seasons, then abysmal pass blocking for the next 11 seasons. This makes what he has accomplished much more impressive IMO.
  6. Just Win Baby

    *** Official 2019 Chargers Thread ****

    Here is how the offense performed in 2018, per PFR: Overall: #28 in offensive plays (945) #6 in points scored (428 = 26.8 ppg) - up from #13 in 2017 (355 = 22.2 ppg); but it is slightly more improvement than that, since the 2017 team had 5 TDs from defense and special teams, compared to 3 in 2018 #5 in percentage of drives that ending in an offensive score (42.4%) #11 in yards gained (5962 = 372.6 ypg) - down from #4 in 2017 (6026 = 376.6 ypg) #3 in yards per play (6.31) - up from #4 in 2017 (5.91) #13 in first downs gained (338) - down/up from #5 in 2017 (337) #11T (11th fewest) in turnovers (19) - down from #4T in 2017 (15) #9 (9th fewest) in percentage of drives ending in a turnover (10%) This was a very efficient offense, finishing #6 in points and #11 in yards despite being #28 in offensive plays. This is further illustrated by finishing #3 in yards per play and #5 in drive scoring percentage. This is even more impressive given the poor OL play and the injuries to Henry and Gordon. Having a solid PK made a big impact on these numbers, after having the worst PK performance in the league in 2017. The red zone offense was also much better, scoring TDs on 64.2% of red zone trips, a huge improvement on the team's 46.8% last season. Unfortunately, Lynn's conservative tendencies did still appear to hinder the offense: The Chargers were just #16 in 3rd down conversion percentage (39.5%). I'm sure a contributing factor was conservative playcalling on 1st/2nd downs. The Chargers led the league in 4th down conversion percentage (87.5%)... but on a league low 8 attempts. The other 11 playoff teams went for it an average of 16.5 times in the regular season. This is also odd because the Chargers led the league with 8 2-point conversion attempts and succeeded on 6 of them (75%). If a team is successful on 13 of 16 4th down and 2-point conversions, it suggests that team should go for it more often. Pass offense: #24T in pass attempts (512) #5 in passer rating (104.9) #7 in completion percentage (348/512 = 68.0%) #10 in passing yards (4316) #3 in YPA (8.4) #8T in passing TDs (32) #4 in TD percentage (6.3%) #12T (12th fewest) in interceptions (12) #17 (17th lowest) in interception percentage (2.34%) #10T (10th fewest) in sacks (34) #11 (11th lowest) in sack percentage (6.2%) In 2017, the Chargers led the NFL in passing yards. In 2018, the passing offense was even better. 4316/32 when #24 in passing attempts is very impressive, and 32/12 TD/interception ratio is better than the team's 28/11 ratio in 2017. Unfortunately, the pass blocking was a big problem. Per PFF: In 2017, Rivers was pressured on 222 (37%) of his dropbacks; on those dropbacks, he had 29 throwaways, 9 TDs, 4 interceptions, and 18 sacks, and he was hit as he threw 3 times. In 2018, he was pressured on 192 (35%) of his dropbacks; on those dropbacks, he had 7 throwaways, 8 TDs, 6 interceptions, and 32 sacks, and he was hit as he threw 7 times. PFF ranked the Chargers pass blocking as #31 in the league, ahead of only Arizona. The fact that Rivers was sacked and hit more and didn't throw away the ball nearly as much suggests that in 2018 the pressure either came from his blind side or came so fast that he was unable to get rid of the ball, like unblocked pass rushers. Run offense: #19 in rushing attempts (399) #15 in rushing yards (1893) #7T in rushing TDs (16) #7 in yards per carry (4.69) The rushing offense was significantly better this season. In fact, it was the best rushing offense the Chargers have had since 2007, Tomlinson's last All Pro season. Unfortunately, it was only great until Gordon got hurt. In the first 12 weeks of the season (11 games), the Chargers had a top 10 rushing offense. The rest of the way, including the playoffs, it was bottom 4. No doubt quality of opponents was a factor, but that was not just because of how good the opposing run defenses were, it also exposed that the Chargers run blocking wasn't as good as it had looked most of the season. Penalties: Per PFF, the Chargers committed 50 offensive penalties, of which 5 were declined or offset. 28 of those 50 penalties were committed by the OL, almost 2 per game. Bottom line: The offense was both efficient and effective, but it was also overly conservative. The fact that Rivers was as good as he was with the #31 pass blocking unit in the league is yet another testament to how good he is. I SMH at Chargers fans who complain about him. One day in the near future, they will get what they wish for, and I expect that will result in a long drought in quality QB play for the Chargers. Thoughts?
  7. Just Win Baby

    Coop's Dynasty Rules Of Thumb

    They had the option to kick you out of the league, which would have happened in my dynasty leagues.
  8. Do you really see no differences between Payton, Faulk, LT, and Dickerson and the others besides YFS that explains this? Come on, man.
  9. Just Win Baby

    Top 10 QB's of All Time

    PFF ranked Ryan's 2018 pass blocking at #12 in the NFL on the full season, compared to #31 for Rivers in 2018 (and an average of ~#23 from 2008-2010). IMO that trumps all other context. At this point, I am going to bow out of the Matt Ryan discussion. I have already said that if he performs the way you project, he is in the HOF. I don't agree that he has been equal to or better than Rivers, and I don't really agree that Ryan is underrated; I think he is generally rated right about where he should be. I will just agree to disagree with you on those things.
  10. This is a really ignorant take about Davis and Sayers, and it pretty much invalidates your post.
  11. You can't isolate stuff like this. No, I don't think Alexander will make it, based on his total resume. Scoring TDs is the strongest part of his resume, but there is more to it. Similarly, it is not appropriate to single out YFS and ignore everything else when advocating for Tiki. (Not saying you did this, but some have.)
  12. Just Win Baby

    Top 10 QB's of All Time

    Well if we use Ryan's most recent 3-year stretch 2016-2018, here is what I see statistically. YPA: Rivers 8.62/Ryan 8.36 Comp %: Ryan 68.0%/Rivers 65.5% TD%: Rivers 6.11%, Ryan 5.57% INT%: Ryan 1.56%, Rivers 2.19% ...and to your point - if one of those three seasons for Ryan resulted in an MVP and SB appearance...I'd say that Ryan's 3-year stretch compares quite favorably. From 2008-2010: Rivers led the league in YPA all 3 seasons. He led the league in TDs and TD% in 2008. He led the league in passer rating in 2008, was #3 in 2009, and #2 in 2010. He led the league in ANY/A in 2008 and was #2 in both 2009 and 2010. (Among other reasons ANY/A differs from passer rating, it accounts for sacks.) He led the league in passing yards and passing yards per game in 2010. He had 6 4Q comebacks and 9 game winning drives. He did this despite the poor pass blocking referenced earlier in the thread. Ryan's pass blocking was much better in any 3 year stretch you choose. 2010 was particularly impressive with context: #1 WR VJax held out and missed 5 games and was not in football shape for all of the 5 games he played. #2 WR Floyd missed 5 games and started just 9 games. #3 WR Crayton missed 7 games. #4 WR Davis missed 9 games. #1 TE Gates missed 6 games and played through multiple injuries in other games. #2 TE Naanee missed 6 games. #1 RB (rookie) Mathews missed 4 games and started just 9 games. The starting OL missed 12 games. PFF graded the Chargers' pass blocking as #26 in the league. Rivers completed passes to 17 different players. He completed TDs to 11 different players. The Chargers were #2 in points scored and #1 in yards. Unfortunately, the Chargers were 9-7 and missed the playoffs, so Rivers' performance was largely ignored by the masses.
  13. Just Win Baby

    Top 10 QB's of All Time

    I have to hand it to you for being persistent. Look, if Ryan retired today, he is not a HOFer. You are projecting that Ryan will pass for another 28K yards and 175 TDs over the next 6 seasons. That is no given. If he does accomplish that, particularly if that is accompanied by significant honors/awards and/or postseason success, he will be a HOF lock. Will he be a top 20 QB at that point? It's hard to say for sure, given that careers will play for many other QBs during that same span (Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger, Eli, Rivers, Rodgers, Wilson, Cam, Luck, et al.), plus we will have much more info on which younger QBs have established a HOF career arc. It is fairly close, but, statistically, Rivers has been a better QB to date. Ryan has the best season between them, his MVP season, but Ryan has no 3 year stretch that compares with Rivers' 2008-2010 stretch. Now on to context. Ryan is more athletic than Rivers, but both of them are QBs that need good pass protection to be successful. Ryan has had a huge edge in the quality of his pass protection, as I pointed out earlier in the thread. Frankly, the absolute terrible pass blocking Rivers has had throughout his career makes his accomplishments much more impressive. Rivers has also played within a dysfunctional organization, with poor ownership, poor front office, and generally poor coaching. The Falcons organization probably isn't at the top of the league in any of those things, but have generally been stronger at all of them than the Chargers organization. I think Ryan has a great chance to surpass Rivers by the end of his career. But, today, he ranks behind Rivers.
  14. For a borderline player, being liked can help, being disliked can hurt. I’m surprised anyone would be surprised by that. But, again, the real issue is that several of his contemporaries were arguably better, and many of them will not make it into the HOF. Frankly, I’m surprised this is not obvious.
  15. Blows my mind that anyone would think that personal reputation and personal relationship with media (read: HOF voters) would not matter. The voters are humans, not computers. Although I personally think my #2 matters the most by far.
  16. Just Win Baby

    Top 10 QB's of All Time

    Hmmmm? 2 SB wins 4 pro bowls 7 4000 seasons 10 3500 yards or more 7 25 or more TD;s 5 90 or more QB Rating Apparently, you missed the bolded part.
  17. Just Win Baby

    Top 10 QB's of All Time

    Surely you can admit that Peyton and Brees are slam dunk HOFers, regardless. Sure, in comparing them to certain others, e.g., the old Peyton-Brady debates, the dome issue was a valid point of discussion. But Peyton and Brees accomplished so much that it doesn't matter. Not so for Ryan. Do you really disagree with this? With regard to Moon, you might have a better argument when Ryan finishes his career. When I compared the two earlier in the thread, I didn't mention playing in a dome. It isn't necessary. Moon was a 28 year old rookie, so he lost 5+ years, including a number of prime years, due to prejudice. Not Ryan's fault, of course, but that is a mitigator for Moon's career that Ryan doesn't have. But Moon doesn't even need that mitigator. He played better relative to his peers than Ryan has so far, thought it is arguably close. But Moon was top 5 in the NFL in passing yards and passing TDs at age 41. Will Ryan do that? I very seriously doubt it.
  18. It is a combination of many things posted here. Too few TDs.. Yes, TDs matter, and they matter a lot, whether or not one wants to minimize them as "1-2 yard plunges". He is/was generally viewed as not being as good as several peers, including Edge, Priest, Ricky Williams, Watters, Larry Johnson, Portis, and Shaun Alexander, none of whom are likely to make the HOF. He made serious mistakes in his personal life that affected his perception with the masses, including the media. Not just criticizing Eli; thinking more about the intern thing at NBC (IIRC).
  19. Just Win Baby

    Top 10 QB's of All Time

    Should it? Should a player get credit for being below average for a lot of years? You narrowed the question. No, a player should not get credit for being below average for a lot of years. Yes, longevity means something, and a player should get credit for it, provided his play is above average for a lot of years.
  20. Just Win Baby

    Top 10 QB's of All Time

    Situational/context elements are often brought up for players when discussing their place in history. You are characterizing Julio and playing in a dome as being brought up to diminish Ryan. They aren't brought up to diminish him, they are brought up to apply context, and it has the effect of mitigating his positives to a degree. You are seeing it as a bias, when it is just the outcome of objective facts.
  21. Just Win Baby

    Top 10 QB's of All Time

    Eli will be a HOFer and will immediately take up residence at the bottom of the ranked list of HOF QBs.
  22. Just Win Baby

    Top 10 QB's of All Time

    I disagree. What do you think is Cunningham's best season? Wilson's? Moon's? Let's compare them.
  23. Just Win Baby

    Top 10 QB's of All Time

    This is off topic, since neither Rivers nor Ryan belongs in a discussion of the top 20 QBs of all time. But I was compelled to respond to this part of your post. Per PFF, here is how their respective team pass blocking grades ranked in each season since they became NFL starters: SD/LA ATL 2006 6T 2007 10 2008 26 13 2009 18 6 2010 24 9 2011 21 6 2012 27 11T 2013 25 28 2014 20 8 2015 32 7 2016 26 13 2017 29 11 2018 31 12 Rivers has been a starter for 13 seasons. During that span, he has had above average pass blocking 2 times, his first 2 seasons. Since then, his pass blocking has typically been among the worst in the league. In contrast, Ryan has only played 1 season with a below average pass blocking unit. Kudos to the Atlanta organization for recognizing that he is the type of QB who needs that and giving it to him consistently. Anyway, it is not comparable between the two. In the 11 seasons both have been starters, Rivers has had better pass blocking 1 time (2013), and barely. Ryan's pass blocking was much better in the other 10 seasons. IMO fans tend to overrate weapons and underrate OL in terms of how they impact QB performance, and, respectfully, your post is a great example of that. I think OL >> weapons as relates to QB performance.
  24. Just Win Baby

    Top 10 QB's of All Time

    My comment was more about comparing the HOF cases for Ryan and Moon. At the time Moon became eligible, he was by far the best AA QB of all time. Yes, Wilson may surpass him. I don't think it has happened yet (i.e., if Wilson retired tomorrow without playing another game). You are comparing stats from different eras. It would be better to compare them vs. their peers. I'm not going to take the time to do that, but I think that would favor Moon at this point. That said, I am a huge fan of Wilson, and I think he is a future HOFer. He may very well surpass Moon and become the greatest AA QB of all time, at least until the next great one surpasses him. That will be interesting to watch.
  25. Just Win Baby

    Top 10 QB's of All Time

    Moon was 28 years old as an NFL rookie due to racial bias within the league for the QB position, which drove him to the NFL. Despite this, he retired in the top 4 in NFL history in passing completions, passing yards, and passing TDs, and he made 9 Pro Bowls. That is really impressive considering he was shorted by 5-6 seasons in comparison to most NFL QB greats. Moon was also the greatest African American QB of all time when he was inducted. Not really something Ryan can compete with, but it matters for purposes of Moon's place in NFL history. Another way to look at it is how they ranked in their careers against their peers. Here are their top 10 finishes, ordered from best season finish to last: Moon (10 seasons): 1 1 3 3 3 5 5 7 7 10 Ryan (9): 2 3 4 5 5 5 6 8 9 Edge: Moon Ryan has finished in the top 10 in passing TDs 9 times so far. Here are their top 9 finishes, ordered from best season finish to last: Moon (9): 1 2 4 5 5 7 7 8 9 Ryan (7): 2 3 5 6 6 9 10 Edge: Moon Frankly, it doesn't look particularly comparable at this point, though Ryan obviously isn't done.