Ryan99

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About Ryan99

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  1. All innovations are extensions of existing technology. To think nothing was invented because "smart phones are just fancy regular phones" is pretty ignorant.
  2. I tried PMing you about the job stuff but the system says you can't receive them. Perhaps your inbox is full, if there is such a thing?

  3. You'd be stupid not to take a risk on a guy with so much marketability. There's a lot less downside to drafting a guy now because of how the rookie salaries work. And don't think for a second that the fact he's a running quarterback who's white has escaped the attention of teams' marketing departments. Is this guy superior to Tim Tebow? That should tell you where he's going to be drafted. And Tebow worked out pretty well for the team that drafted him. One playoff win and a ton of merchandise sold and then swapped out for Peyton and a fourth round pick.
  4. No, it isn't.You don't know anything about the condition under which he revealed the given information, only that it is true. Any other assumptions are outside the scope of the problem.
  5. With no additional information you assume cases are equally likely. The statement "one of my children is a boy" narrows the possible group of men this guy is drawn from to all men with two kids and at least one boy. You assume he is randomly drawn from this group and the probability his other kid is a girl is 2/3. To conclude otherwise means you are assuming things outside of the information given to you.This is the way probability problems are done. If you are given a piece of information you narrow the set to include all elements for which the information is true. You then draw randomly from this group. If you do otherwise (to get 50% for this problem, for instance) you are going to get a different answer than a statistician would get. Except I am not the one assuming. Did we randomly find out that one of the children was a boy or did we ask specifically ask if either child is a boy. You are seeing more in the statement than what was said.It doesn't matter.Here's the original information: "A man tells you he has two children. He then starts talking about his son." All you know about the man is that he has 2 children and at least one boy. Everything else is irrelevant to the problem. If you solve the problem as is you get 2/3 as the answer. You can assume all sorts of things that change the probability, but these are outside of the original questions as asked. There was no asking of anything. This is all the information you have.
  6. With no additional information you assume cases are equally likely. The statement "one of my children is a boy" narrows the possible group of men this guy is drawn from to all men with two kids and at least one boy. You assume he is randomly drawn from this group and the probability his other kid is a girl is 2/3. To conclude otherwise means you are assuming things outside of the information given to you.This is the way probability problems are done. If you are given a piece of information you narrow the set to include all elements for which the information is true. You then draw randomly from this group. If you do otherwise (to get 50% for this problem, for instance) you are going to get a different answer than a statistician would get.
  7. If somebody tells me that he has two children and one of them is a boy, and it turns out that in fact two of them are boys, I'm going to slap him. He was being misleading. If two of them are boys, he should have said "two" instead of "one."This is not a problem about speech idioms, it's an abstract logic problem.A man has two sons. You are asked "Does this man have a son?". The correct answer to this question is "yes". The fact that I used "a", which is singular, does not change the answer. In this case "a" and "at least one" have identical meanings. The same is true for "one".The fact that both of his children are boys does not change the fact that "one is a boy". This might not be what you would expect from someone in casual conversation but it is certainly true in logic problems.
  8. That's not true.Facts are not dependent on their source. That's the nature of a fact, it's an absolute truth. If you learn identical information from the man or from some other source the solution must be identical.
  9. For some reason people seem to think the answer is different if the man tells you about his son or if you gain the information from some other source. It doesn't. If changing the source of the information changes your answer you're doing something wrong.
  10. 1) When he says "one" that either means "only one" in which case it's 100% or he means "at least one" in which case it's 2/3 (the latter of these is the common interpretation for logic problems but not for every day speech). If he said "the older one is a boy" it would be 50%.2) You don't know why he walked up to you (maybe he only walked up to you because he has 2 boys, in which case the probability of a girl is 0%). Since you have no information about why he walked up to you, the common assumption is that he is randomly drawn from everyone in the population defined by his statement. His statement is, effectively, "I have 2 children and at least one is a boy". If you assemble all such men for which this is a true statement, 1/3 will have BG, 1/3 will have GB, and 1/3 will have BB. Therefore, if he is assumed to be randomly drawn from this population (which is the most reasonable assumption given what you know about the man) the probability that he has a daughter is 2/3.3) See #14) See #24 #2) See #15) See #1
  11. There's nothing ambiguous in the Marilyn problem. You are adding ambiguity because you insist on adding and assuming things. The solution to the problem as is is 2/3. You can add stuff to make it 1/2. You could also add stuff to make it 0, 100%, or anything in between, but doing so is irrelevant. This is an abstract, mathematical problem. Stop assuming stuff that isn't there.
  12. Let's imagine the following two scenarios#1) All men with two children, at least one of which is a boy, talk to you. When they talk to you they mention something about one of their boys (for instance, they say "my oldest child is a boy" if that's the case and "my youngest child is a boy" otherwise). What percentage of men talking to you will have one boy and one girl? 2/3 #2) All men with two children, at least one of which is a boy, are walking down the street, but only those who's oldest child is a boy talk to you. What percentage of men talking to you have one boy and one girl? 1/2 Ok, so let's assume, as you do, that the man says something about his boy. If the man was going to talk to you no matter what (and just say some random thing about his boy), it's 2/3. But if he was only going to talk to you if his boy was the eldest child (or anything else that orders the children), then it's 1/2. It's impossible to know which is the case, but given that the OP doesn't specify that the guy says anything about his kid I think the former is the better answer. Here's another, clearer (imo) way of putting this. You're holding a sign and everyone that sees it obeys it. The sign says: #1) If you have 2 kids and the oldest is a boy come talk to me about your son. Result: 1/2 of people that talk to you have 1 boy and one girl. #2) If you have 2 kids and at least one is a boy come talk to me about your son. Result: 2/3 of the people that talk to you have 1 boy and 1 girl. The OP's question is much closer to the latter than the former in my opinion. Someone previously mentioned that the guy doesn't have to actually say anything about his kid, the mere fact that the kid is mentioned "orders" them. But this is not the case for someone with two boys. If I have two sons and I say "I have a son" that's an accurate statement but does not "order" the children or give you any additional information.
  13. I'm going to be a doosh and quote my own post.Seriously, JUST TAKE 5 MINUTES TO READ AND UNDERSTAND THIS. Other than the last paragraph, what's written in the above post is absolutely correct, indisputable, and not hard to understand. The last paragraph is my interpretation of the problem and is up for debate. But the previous math is not. Read, understand, then talk.
  14. False. Read some of the 29 pages of posts.
  15. The problem is somewhat ambiguous, which is where the confusion comes from. However I still think that 2/3 is the better answer for the reasoning given in my previous post.Think of it this way:Every man you pass on the street, if he has two children and one is a boy, tells you about his son. For 2/3 of these men his other child is a girl. So the probability that the next man that talks to you has a daughter is 2/3.To get 1/2, you'd have to assume that the father with two sons is twice as likely to talk to you than the guy with just one son. Can we turn this into a reasonable assumption? Yes.Not every man talks to you, only those whose son did something of note. Since the probability of at least one son doing something of note is twice as high for a father of two boys, the probability he'll talk to you is twice as much and the probability the kid has a brother becomes 1/2.In my opinion, given the wording of the problem, the first assumption (equal probs for dads) is more reasonable than the second (equal prob for boys), but it's definitely not certain. Saying this problem has a definite answer is wrong. There's not enough information.