Like many others have posted, this upcoming year seems to stacked with 1st round talent well into the 2nd round. I am always on guard against recency bias and big name tickets, but here it goes:
My Rankings, Full PPR:
1.01 Brown - This is assuming Big Ben comes back (he could easily drop out of top 10 otherwise). The sudden influx in quality RBs and derth of top end WRs is what propels him above the RB crop to follow
1.02 Gurley - It will be hard to top this year, especially considering they really have not had a healthy COP most of year (Dunbar) to steal receptions. With that said, the offense should only get better, so less touches but more TDs to offset. The "safest" pick in the 1st round.
1.03 Bell - Obviously, this all depends on if he is back with Pittsburgh. The amount of touches he has received is insane (387 so far) so that is a little bit of a concern - to my recollection no RB with 400+ touches has even come close to reproduction the following year.
1.04 Elliot - The 2nd safest play in the 1st round. Outside of the knucklehead factor, it is hard to imagine him finishing outside of the top 10 RBs next year barring injury. If Palmer comes back, I would probably put DJ ahead of him.
1.05 DJ - Essentially will have an entire year off from taking hits. Regardless of QB situation, he will be inline for a massive workload; could catch over 100 passes if someone other than Palmer is at the helm.
1.06 OBJ - Assumes Manning will be back. People may overlook him based on this year, but he has the past pedigree and massive upside to justify this spot.
1.07 Fournette - Jags offense should only get better. Their defense will ensure they will be playing with the lead - or close to it - for most of their games. His injury propensity scares me, but 1800 YFS & 12+ TDs is well within reach for him.
1.08 Hopkins - Unlike what others have said in this thread, no #1 WR is QB proof; that is just a ridiculous notion (slot receivers/TE's I can see more of an argument for). If Watson is not back healthy before the season I would drop him from the 1st round easily.
1.09 McCaffrey - 100+ receptions and 10 total TDs are well within reach. Having a hard time imagining how he (and the Panthers usage of him) could be worse next year. As someone else said, he will be next year's Kamara.
1.10 Hunt - He lack of usage in pass blocking is concerning, as maybe that leaves open the door for a timeshare with Ware, but here's to hoping he is able to improve in that area in the off season.
1.11 Kamara - even with Ingram coming back, his floor is still high. His TD rate will not last but he seems to be a lock for 12+ points every week with 25+ upside.
1.12 Cook - looked fantastic before his injury.
Can see the following jumping into the 1st round based on off-season developments:
- Ingram, Barkley/Guice, Hyde, Evans, Julio, Gordon, Green, Gronk, Freeman, Mi. Thomas, Henry