sporthenry

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About sporthenry

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  1. In some ways, a Trump victory may make Obamas legacy greater, albeit less impactful with many of his policies rolled back. I don't claim Obamas been the best President ever but he's done a pretty good job esp given the hands he was dealt. Hilary would likely be 4 more years of his policies but Trump might make a lot of people yearn for Obama.
  2. I feel like I hear this every 4 years.
  3. It's anecdotal in the sense people lost a job and think free trade is terrible ignoring the iPhone and plasma tv they have at home. Middle class wages have stagnated but standard of living still seems pretty good. Something has to be done about structural unemployment but a trade war won't have a net positive event. How much does an iPhone made in the US cost?
  4. Low hanging fruit. Anecdotal evidence of Americans losing jobs ignoring benefits it brings.
  5. Doesn't Sheriff Clark make the same argument?
  6. The economy is pretty good, especially compared to where Obama picked it up. Now there is a natural cycle to things and people give the President far too much blame/praise for the economy but so be it. Economy is sputtering along and don't think either candidate really changes that. Trump hasn't produced much in policy and has potential to strike fear into markets. But unemployment is down, slowly adding jobs and GDP is growing. Should probably look more at the Fed who is more responsible but has exhausted almost everything they can do. Now up to Fiscal policy to some degree which is more Congress than the President. But in globalized world, our economy is tied to China, Japan, Europe, etc.
  7. I respect Cruz. Guess some are calling him a liar for reneging on his pledge (the same pledge this candidate didn't even take). But at least he held to his morals and true conservatism. Amazing, how the rest of the Republican party can squirm behind Trump in the name of true conservatism. I do feel like if the candidate who wins the nominee didn't guarantee to support me, I wouldn't feel nearly as compelled to support them. It is a two way street.
  8. Glass-Steagall part is fascinating. Read it is a play to get supports from community banks and presumably main street America. Tough line to walk when you are also proposing getting rid of Dodd-Frank but Dodd-Frank becomes fairly meaningless, at least on the big points, if Glass-Steagall is re-enacted. It will be interesting to see where this goes. Clinton had to come left for Warren/Sanders but imagine Wall Street money will just flow into her campaign now. Many in finance liked the status quo to begin with so now you are putting some of their livelihoods at risk. Also killing a ton of jobs w/ regulators, compliance, etc. While big banks will oppose it, have to think at some point Dodd-Frank becomes too expensive for them anyways. If everyone has to play by the same rules they'll find ways around it.
  9. Going to have to help me with the hypocrisy. Not only did you create a straw man, but you insinuate that she was taking the other side of the argument. Way I read it, she was merely bringing Trump down to her level, acknowledging what is an economic reality in today's world. She is calling Trump out for being a hypocrite. At no point did she state she was for/against anything.
  10. 538 does take into consideration the convention bounce. Didn't see anything about VP though. Looking at the polls, looks like it was the Dallas shooting (w/ maybe some of picking Pence) that seemed to help Trump out the most. Fascinating stuff. Hilary probably hoping for no more attacks domestic or abroad which is a bit sad for a former Secretary of State vs someone w/ no foreign policy experience although guess it doesn't matter when its still your policy in place.
  11. But then Hilary gets the bump from the DNC and presumably from the VP pick. Don't know how 538 is doing it but seems dumb to give odds now if you aren't taking that into account.
  12. Someone might want to tell Deval and Barack that they were both plagiarizing someone. TBH, if we're going to compare plagiarisms, Obama's doesn't seem as bad as Melania. Not that Melanias was that bad, just ironic who she plagiarized from.
  13. This CNN guy who looks like a frat bro of Donald Jr. Have you seen their hands? They didn't build anything with them.
  14. The liquidity of the bond market has been extremely overplayed. As you allude to, interest rates remain near all-time lows so anyone talking about borrowing costs now seems silly. Disney just printed record 10-yr and 30-yr money. I work at a decently large bank that has been burdened by Dodd-Frank and Volcker but that is more of a nuisance for employees and bank earnings. And while the top part is right, at least partially, Trump was arguing that repealing it would be good. Based off your comments, you also acknowledge the risks and instability brought about that behavior. So yes, in theory FX and corporate bonds will be a bit more expensive to compensate for the risk that wasn't being compensated for.
  15. Not sure I understand how Dodd-Frank impacts small business. Going to have to unpack that one. While in some ways, it benefits the rich bankers, it only really impacts them.