Dr. Brew

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About Dr. Brew

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  1. I'm not the one who made a poor suggestion and backed it up with flawed logic The only issues I have are with other people's tissues
  2. I'm just pointing out your flawed logic. Yes, any player can rebound any time. Yes, there are old RBs who do well after having lots of mileage (I've been waiting for you to use Frank Gore as an example, not the completely different players/positions/scenarios in Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams...). To say that a 31 year old WR has a good year so a 31 year old RB can also is just ridiculous. By that logic one could say 39 year old Tom Brady just won the superbowl so all 39 year old RBs can win a superbowl for their team too. I'd love to discuss why you think AP will rebound. But I just can't seem to follow your line of thinking. You've said "he will play with a chip on his shoulder," which I really don't understand what chip you're talking about. I mean I suppose he could be angry at everyone that he got hurt 2 of the last 3 seasons. Or maybe he's mad at Goodell from something that happened 2 years ago. If that's your logic then technically he should have had a chip on his shoulder this season, and if that's the case I want nothing to do with that chip because he looked awful. You've also said that he can rebound because, afterall, a WR for the Packers broke out in his third season after 2 disappointing seasons. Again, ridiculous because you're comparing a guy past his prime to a guy just getting into his. Then you at least compared 2 guys the same age and tried to use that to justify it. But you can hopefully now see how dumb that logic is when you are comparing a WR to a RB. I would hope you understand that RB receives more wear and tear over their careers than a WR. So I guess I will make a reasonable argument for you... Frank Gore is 10th all time in rushing attempts for his career, is 33 years old, and just ran for 1000 yards. So why can't AP do it since he is, arguably, a better RB than Gore? The difference, IMO, is that since AP's career year in 2012 he has had a significant drop in performance. The last 4 consecutive seasons make up 4/5 AP's worst seasons for YPC. Comparing to Frank Gore, he has been rather consistent in yards and YPC until the last 2 seasons. AP could very well play 16 games next season and not crack 1200 yards. Is that worth what it would cost to get him? Frank Gore did that making 4 million. AP would need a lot more than that I would imagine. I do think AP may be a significant contributor to the right team, but his days of being a bellcow and running for 1400 yards a season are over. That's the big difference between Gore and AP. Gore was never a 1500 yards a season guy. He always ran for 1100-1200. AP is so up and down. Bottom line here is that AP is very unlikely to run for 1500+ yards. 1100, maybe. Is that significantly more than what Ty Montgomery would get? Ty is built a lot like AP TBH. Ty Montgomery played 11 games at RB. He got 5 or more carries in only 7 games, rushed for 423 yards in those 7 games. One would imagine if he were the RB1 he would get at least 5 carries a game in 2017, correct? So if we take his average over 7 games receiving RB1 type carries, he would be projected at 967 yards. Eddie Lacy, lard and all, was on pace to have 1150 yards last season. I've heard he is likely to take a 1-2 year prove it deal in the range of 2-3 million. The question we have to ask is, is it worth 8, 10, 12 million to bring in AP for an additional 200 yards to Montgomery? Does AP have higher upside than Eddie Lacy? They are probably about 10 million dollars apart. Let's even assume AP will run for 1500 yards next season. And Eddie Lacy runs for 1200. Is it worth the additional 10 million for 300 yards? I would argue no. If you look at it from a "money ball" standpoint, it's really not necessary nor is it cost effective.
  3. Again, we are comparing a very used running back who is a year away from being in the top 25 all time of career carries to a wide receiver. Two completely different positions in the NFL with two completely different "life expectancies." Many WRs do quite well into their mid to late 30s. Cannot say the same about RBs We can continue comparing apples to carrots I suppose... Janikowski is 38 and quite successful. I suppose using that as an example we could see if Ahman Green would want to play. He seems well rested. I suppose AP could have 7 strong seasons left in him, because it happens all the time at RB FWIW: Jordy is going to significantly decline over the next 2 seasons IMO. I have several reasons for that thought, and I sincerely hope that Adams can be more than a slot type guy and step in as a WR1. We may very well need him to be in 2 short seasons.
  4. Interesting question. I don't necessarily have time to answer this in depth immediately, but I'll come back to this at a later time. Off the top of my head: I do feel like Julio Jones kind of fits this category but not exactly. OBJ was close to approaching this category this last season, but he had several games of 15 or so fantasy points without a TD that made up for it, but the first 8 games I was nervous Jay Ajayi is a classic example. I think he finished top 15 but had 2-3 big games. Diggs is a good example this year. He would either go 4/40 or 6/125/2 Cam Newton is a great example. I avoid him at all costs A year or two ago I had suggested Chris Johnson in his later years was similar to Chad. Early in his career he produced quite well but he kind of petered off into flirting with Chad Johnson status for a while. I got railed for suggesting this. I think that was a good debate actually. Good points on both sides I'll add more later. I'm just commenting on players I know because I owned them.
  5. So we are comparing people being down on Adams from a year ago... a second, going on 3rd year player looking to take that typical "3rd year WR leap" who had a very disappointing first two seasons to a 31 year old running back with 2400 career carries, and hasn't done anything significant for the last 18 months. Practically twins.
  6. Exactly Ding Ding Ding!!! It's clear they have no clue what the problem is, because this is exactly what they lead with. I did not subscribe for the first time ever, don't regret it. What I basically wrote was: 1. There is better talent in the forum. If they took some time in the forum and maybe asked a few people to join up maybe that would improve their content. 2. Timeliness. Things were always late, especially in the back 50% of the season. 3. Content. Contributors were more concerned about promoting their lotto pick for the season than providing accurate analysis on regular players that most of us care about. Yeah, that lotto RB is a lifesaver for everyone but how often have these guys hit? If Lammey or Dodds tells me to go for a guy I'm running the opposite direction! Guys who do contribute weekly practically mail it in- or at least it seems like it. Especially when you compare the quality of content to what it once was back when they really cared about making the website successful. Some are coming across just flat out lazy. Dr. Jene's input is great but he's a pediatric MD... He seems real open to others' opinions on these matters. It'd be nice to have another 1 or 2 people on staff that could bounce ideas off of. One man's opinion is not always correct. I really like when you have articles where guys give their opinions on certain players and those opinions differ. I think that allows people to develop their own opinions better. It'd be nice to have this same kind of service from a medical perspective 4. DFS. Stop selling out your consumers. Stop trying to shove DFS down their throats. I purchased the DD app and I was quite pleased. I found the forums to have more meaningful information than I ever got on the subscriber content
  7. Anyone but Gronk, again I vote to add Jordy
  8. Did you miss the "Dynasty" part of the title? Alshon I'll give him. Sammy Watkins is potentially equal to Dez for long term value IMO Yes
  9. I didn't want to say WR1 and get blasted for it, but you are right. He was my WR1 and I got burned, never did it again. I think one year he was my flex and I still hated it. I've been a big proponent of the "Chad Johnson is overrated" crowd since then. Same with many others. I got a lot of grief for this as well. He would finish as a top 12 WR every year and be drafted as such and then people would complain. I would point to his game logs and people would call me nuts. Continues to happen to this day as I identify players who perform very similarly to Chad Johnson... even in those threads I get grief for suggesting this
  10. Exactly. But possibly overstated. I'd even say 10-12 points I draft so that my WR1 and RB1 have big play potential (this year, Bell and OBJ). This year I drafted for a good QB (Brady) but I usually go QBBC. Brady fell because everyone in my league hates him. Wohoo for me. If my WR2 and RB2 can produce 10 points a game on average I am thrilled because that means they have potential to score 20+ a few times a season, but they are averaging at least 10 their "off" weeks. I am thrilled with this. Same with TE. If I can get 10-12 from my TE I am overly thrilled. I will win games with my QB, WR1 and RB1. The rest of my guys just need to produce me 10-12 points. In that case I am getting 60-70 points from my "others" and looking at 17-25 from my QB, WR, RB putting me at 125+ weekly (not counting those big weeks from the "others" mind you), which should be a win in my league most weeks. This strategy works for me. I've won 4 of the last 5 seasons and took 3rd place the off year due to a very late stat correction for Denard Robinson costing me a game by a tenth of a point (would have won the superbowl that year). I'm consistently one of if not the top scoring team in the league. If it ain't broke don't fix it
  11. Chad Johnson was like this. He'd score you 4/50 for like 4 weeks and then go off for 225/3. He'd finish the season with like 10 TDs but those 10 TDs were scored in 4 games. Meanwhile he's getting you 9 points in PPR every other week and you drafted him to be your WR2 at the very least (in his prime). So that player finishes in the top 10-15 in WRs but really he was a WR4-5 for 75% of the season and a WR1 for 25%. I suppose if you feel good about a guaranteed win 25% of the time then this is right up your alley. Granted, Ajayi won me my superbowl this year with his inconsistency, but these types of players I usually try to avoid at all costs.
  12. My understanding is a player is under contract until March when FA begins. That is why teams cannot communicate with impending FAs yet because that would be considered tampering. When you factor in things like health insurance etc, players just don't stop getting that in January when their seasons are over. I believe a contract goes through March. However this is the article I was referencing, although it doesn't say he was fined this offseason, so it looks like I misspoke. It does say that during the season he put more weight back on however http://gnb.247sports.com/Bolt/Report-Eddie-Lacy-was-fined-by-Packers-for-weight-issues--51285134
  13. If Aaron fails, we fail yes. If Aaron fails and we have AP, we still fail. AP is done. I'd love AP on our team 4 years ago, but he has shown nothing that would indicate he has anything left to be a bell cow. Personally I don't think 6-10 million or whatever it'd take to get him is worth 10-15 carries a game (and do we ever have a RB who gets a whole lot more than that anyways? We are not a running team). I see AP being a decent part time guy, but his days of being a bell cow are over. If you think a part time RB who gets, what you say, 10-15 carries a game will save us from failing when Aaron fails then I guess you really think AP is going to be flat out amazing averaging a career best 7-8 yards per carry. We can save this conversation for a year from now I suppose. Because debating it is worthless, neither one of us will be right until January 2018. I think we all can agree that GB needs to do something at RB. Lacy has been fined for being overweight already I hear, so that's not good. I was in favor of bringing him back but now I am in the boat of just trying something else. I really feel like we should go CB/LB/RB in our first 3 picks. CB and RB are super deep this draft
  14. Cute. Without getting too specific to jeopardize his job, my buddy works within rehabilitation of the Packers organlization. (I feel like I've said this over and over, so I apologize to everyone for having to repeat it again) So he doesn't know everything and anything outside of injuries and recovery he is just hearing through office chatter. Which is probably more accurate than my office chatter. In general, our communication dies down fairly well in the springtime. I am pretty busy and I might see him at a continuing education course up in Green Bay or a mentoring program each of us participate in. I can always reach out, so if anyone has a question about a rumor they may have heard I'd be more than willing to ask. Take my knowledge for what it's worth, or don't. I really don't care. Some people appreciate it while some don't and I stopped caring about the don't a long time ago. It's not about pushing my opinions on people. It's about correcting people who say things that are flat our wrong or uninformed, especially when I text someone I know within a particular organization and they come back with "Wtf where did you hear that?!" Back to the topic, you still haven't mentioned why you said: Where did that come from? Why?
  15. It makes zero sense. We have 40 some million of cap space, but see King Prawn's post below... see how fast that gets used up: So you have the ask yourself, would you rather spend 6-8 million on a Cornerback to fix the biggest glaring problem on our team, or spend that on an aged over the hill running back that doesn't fit the offensive system? It makes absolutely zero sense. Maybe in Madden world it does, but not real life.