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Mr. Irrelevant

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About Mr. Irrelevant

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    Arizona, by way of UCLA

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    Philadelphia Eagles

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  1. I was a little surprised to see the Eagles have between $22-26M in 2019 cap space depending on the source. You have to imagine the FO would look to bring a little bit of that out-year money forward if they're able. Then again ..... the cap has risen by $10M+ for 6 years running, so if that keeps up, maybe you'd rather have $35M (or whatever his '24 salary might be absent any cap games) against a $250M cap then $25.5M against this year's $188M. Fortunately, if there's one guy in the entire NFL I trust to make the right decision on this, it's the salary cap Dumbledore we have at GM.
  2. 4 years, $128 million, $107 million guaranteed, per Schefty: That last sentence is key. Because this is a true extension - not a new deal - it doesn't supersede his rookie deal or the 5th-year option ... so the AAV over the next 6 years works out to just about $25.5M. Here are some other NFL QBs in that range: Kirk Cousins: $28M Jimmy Garoppolo: $27.5M Matt Stafford: $27M Derek Carr: $25M 🤣 If Wentz can play consistently at even 90% of his 2017 form, this will be a massive bargain for the Birds - even if he winds up closer to Big Ben than Rivers on the "long-term health" spectrum. Roeth only played two 16-game seasons in a six-year span starting at age 27 ... but do you think anyone in Steeler country would have rather played QB roulette than locked him up during those years? Another huge W for Howie and the gang.
  3. Kevin Clark from The Ringer put it better and more succinctly than I ever could: You know you're getting a great NFL QB in Wilson, or Mahomes, or whichever stud floats your boat in this hypothetical. You have no idea whether you're getting a great NFL QB with the 1.1 pick. The choice is (or at least should be) obvious.
  4. Count me among the foolish optimists, maybe, but I think Rosen's gotten written off way too soon. His fantasy advantage in this spot vs. a true rookie like Haskins is that you should have a handle on his likely career arc a year sooner. I wouldn't worry at all about leaving yourself holes elsewhere. With lineups as large as you note depth is almost as important as top-end talent, and QB is the only position where depth simply doesn't exist in any meaningful sense. By contrast, you can acquire current-year RB2/WR3 production at comically low prices in any dynasty startup - even more so in a SF with TE premium scoring I would imagine.
  5. I'll second Dan's advice - I wouldn't grab just any "low-end starter" at the 4/5 turn, but as you have the luxury of two every-week starters already, if someone young with upside is still on the board, absolutely. Darnold / Allen / Jackson would be no-brainers (although I have to imagine they'd all be gone). Rosen or Carr would probably be worth a stab. I might even be tempted to throw a dart at Haskins or Lock there even though I'm not that high on either - just because even if they're 80% likely to bust, their career VBD in that other 20% of cases will dwarf anyone else you could hope to land in that spot.
  6. It would be effectively impossible, even if one of those "WRs" were putting up equivalent stats as a TE instead. Finishing in the top 20 requires a 65/1,000/7 stat line or thereabouts. Stack 3 of those stat lines together and even if those top 3 guys were commanding a 75% target share (well above historical averages), that QB would finish with around 4,000 yards passing and 28 TDs - borderline QB10 numbers as-is. And this assumes those top 3 guys finish right on the thresholds above, when in reality there would be a few hundred extra yards and several extra TDs spread out among the top 3. Generally speaking, any time three pass-catchers from the same offense are being drafted as elite options, either that offense is poised to set records (unlikely) or at least one of them will be a fantasy disappointment (much more likely).
  7. I won WSL2 last year with six guys on IR and 5 others who scored less than 100 points on the season. My team's 2nd-highest WR finished WR50. None of my top 4 picks missed time, and I hit on Kittle. That was it - my 15 other picks were garbage. And that was enough.
  8. I'm not saying Cousins isn't undervalued - merely that others in that range are more undervalued. In most drafts, he'll go within 1-1.5 rounds of Rivers, Prescott, and Garoppolo, and I'm happy to spend the slight extra draft capital on any of them over him. I can see happily grabbing Cousins if he falls to the above ADP and my 1 is an upside play like Mayfield, Winston, Murray (LMAO at the thought that he'll be going outside the top 16 come August). OTOH, if my QB1 is a floor play like Goff / Rivers / Big Ben, give me Darnold and his as-yet-unknown upside at the two-round discount instead every day of the week.
  9. This has shades of Fitz coming off his 2014 season, where you couldn't get a bag of soda cans for him because he obviously had one foot in the grave - never mind that he was a first-ballot HOF talent who spent half the year banged up and the other half with Drew Stanton and Ryan Lindley at QB. And anyone who bought Fitz right then turned his bag of cans into the WR6, WR11, WR5 the next three seasons. Anyone who sells A-Rod right now is making the same mistake the Fitz sellers did four years ago. And anyone who can get A-Rod for a bag of cans should jump at the chance.
  10. Agreed, and even if I take off the green-tinted glasses he may be my favorite name relative to ADP. Sadly for that strategy I'm in Eagles country, so in most of my drafts he'll go significantly sooner than QB10. I love him as an 8th-rounder, but in the 5th or 6th I'd rather punt the position and grab two of the names I listed earlier.
  11. The problem with Cousins is that while he's low on this list in a linear sense, his ADP is as close to Prescott at #15 as to the very next QB off the board in Darnold. Personally if I'm targeting QB in that range, I'd rather gun for Rivers two rounds earlier, or take Darnold at the two-round discount. The best thing about the late QBs this year is that there's a nice mix of steady Eddies and pure ceiling guys that make natural pairings. One of Big Ben / Rivers / Dak / Brady plus one of Jimmy G / Allen / Murray / Darnold is likely to be my default strategy in 1-QB leagues for 2019.
  12. There are options to select startup picks vs. rookie picks on the SS. I assume they mean what the labels say - haven’t tested them.
  13. In terms of FBG-centric dynasty calculators, Jeff's right here is the one you need. It's configurable with all manner of league, roster, and lineup settings. Based on a 12-team league with 26-man rosters, Pasquino says pick 1.07 is worth 670 points, far more than 3 mid-2nds (about 400). You can play with the settings some, but you have to plug in a really large league with some really deep rosters to make the two sides close to even. Personally, I think his value formulas overstate the gap a little, as I'd consider a (known) 1.07 and three (known) mid-2nds close to equal. But when you factor in the nonlinear upside of an unknown 1st that could be 1.01 or 1.02, I agree with him that the 1st is the big winner here.
  14. Also ... and I hate to say it ... I was up-close and personal with Andy Reid at the Maxwell Awards a couple of months ago and he looked really unwell. Like "needed help getting across the stage" unwell. He seems like he's aged 15 years in the past 5. As a lifelong Eagles fan he'll always be one of my favorite guys in the NFL, but I wouldn't put money he's still on the KC sideline 5 years from now, never mind 10-15.
  15. Obligatory addendum: There have been 63 WRs drafted in the 2nd round in the past 15 years, and barely a third of them (24) put up 2,000 receiving yards in their first 4 years. A whopping 15 of them have averaged 10+ PPR fantasy points per game, pretty much what's needed to rise above the level of WW fodder. By those standards, most draft picks outside the 1st round turn out to be "bums". But you've got to spend them on someone regardless.