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Mr. Irrelevant

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About Mr. Irrelevant

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  1. The Upton Sinclair quote springs to mind: "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon him not understanding it."
  2. This is one of the most barbell-looking teams I've ever seen in these. We have to start 7 skill positions each week and in 5 of those slots you should be gaining points on the field every week. Which leaves RB2 - where you've got three guys whose roles in their offenses are the "dude throws his hands in the air" emoji - and WR3 - where you've got two rooks and two guys who are always banged up. With the possible exception of White you could get 0 or 20 from any of the other six in any given week and right now in May it wouldn't surprise me. But then again ... you only need one score each week from each of those groups, except for the bye weeks, and none of your studs share a bye except the two Chargers. But then again again ... if any of your big 5 misses extended time it's gonna pull the rug right out from under you. Interesting strategy for sure. I definitely don't hate it. I'd love it in a format like IBL - where we don't get the TE premium, have to make weekly WDIS calls, and can stash upside plays like Ruggs and Hamler while we wait for a breakout. As it is I'm not sure how well it'll work here. IMO I see you winning an early immunity or two and then flaming out mid-season when a missed game or two from a stud overlaps with another's bye week. I'm probably wrong though. GL to you my man.
  3. For better or worse, SSL/MBSL strategy is pretty dictated by the survivor format and the 18-man rosters. Basically you get to choose: either be somewhat thin at most positions or dangerously thin at one or two positions. This time around I decided to stock up on playable RB/WRs and let the chips fall where they may at the start-1 positions. In some cases it worked out, in others ... not so much. 5.14 Josh Allen BUF QB9 [11] 7.14 Jimmy Garoppolo SFO QB21 [11] Like this duo in this format (at least I did when I drafted them). The Diggs addition should open up the Bills' pass game and Allen's wheels make him a big week waiting to happen, while Jimmy G brings the consistent floor plus the stack potential with Kittle. Aaaaaaaand then the schedule dropped - and they share not just a bye but a really late one. The schedule came out too late to fix through the draft - normally I could have taken a shot on one of the Bears but ... guess when their bye is? So, yeah. Here's hoping for immunity week 10. 2.03 Josh Jacobs LVR RB11 [6] 8.03 Derrius Guice WAS RB36 [8] 10.03 Matt Breida MIA RB43 [11] 13.14 Tony Pollard DAL RB51 [10] 17.14 Chase Edmonds ARI RB63 [8] Considering my plan was to get a workhorse RB1 and ham-and-egg my RB2, landing three potential feature backs was like Christmas in May. Jacobs' underuse in the pass game means his ceiling is a bit capped but he'll get his. Guice and Breida can beast out those rare occasions they're healthy - it helps that their primary competition is either over the hill, the definition of JAG, or both. And speaking of upside ... Pollard and Edmonds are both one injury away from being potential RB1s and could carry occasional standalone value as well. Really wavered on Edmonds vs. a WR7 at the end but with the injury history of the guys above him I'm not sure 4-deep would cut it. Considering their draft slots I'm thrilled with the value here. 3.14 Courtland Sutton DEN WR19 [8] 4.03 Robert Woods LAR WR24 [9] 6.03 Jarvis Landry CLE WR34 [9] 11.14 Anthony Miller CHI WR59 [11] 14.03 Allan Lazard GBP WR72 [5] 15.14 Kenny Stills HOU WR80 [8] Drafting from the 14-hole and starting with Kittle + RB I knew there was no chance to land a true WR1 so I sort of put myself at the mercy of who was available at the 3/4 turn - feel I got a little lucky. When it comes to Sutton, I'm more excited about the upside of Lock's growth for Denver's offense than I am worried about Jeudy and Hamler ... he was on a 150+ target pace after the Sanders trade so the floor should be there to go with the ceiling. Woods and Landry are exactly the kind of consistent, high-floor guys that pay big dividends with the shallower SSL rosters. Miller and Lazard are pure complementary pieces, but at 10+ spots below ADP they can return value even if that's all they are. At the end felt I had to grab at least the one best-ball lottery ticket in Stills. No league-winners here and with only 6 depth is a concern, but target volume alone should keep me afloat most weeks. 1.14 George Kittle SFO TE2 [11] 9.14 Irv Smith Jr. MIN TE23 [7] IMHO the 2PPR TE boost in these leagues isn't an overvalue because, sure, it gives the stud TEs 1st-rounder VBD, but with 16 teams spending your 1st-rounder on a TE really makes you scramble at RB/WR. I've never won doing it, not even with peak Gronk, but something something the definition of insanity because here I go again. Kittle put up 23+ points EIGHT TIMES last season - speaking of peak Gronk. I was higher on Smith a few months ago when it was rumored the Vikes might cut Rudolph* - seems unlikely now, but with Diggs gone there should be enough targets to go around. * FUN FACT I JUST LEARNED TODAY: Kyle Rudolph was born on the exact same day the Berlin Wall fell. 12.03 Matt Prater DET PK8 [5] 16.03 Cowboys DAL DST20 [10] 18.03 Lions DET DST30 [5] One high-end (low-variance) kicker and two low-end (high-variance) defenses - same as usual. Honestly this team seems pretty well equipped to hang around a while ... after shooting for the moon the past few of these it's nice not having to cross my fingers hoping for rookies to show out from jump or multiple young talents to make a leap all at once. Hanging around past week 11 is gonna be a challenge though Kidding aside - not sure this squad has the ceiling to go all the way unless Zeke, Drake, or maybe A-Rob goes kaput. But with rosters this shallow these things usually devolve into a war of attrition anyway ... one thing I've learned, if you can hang around past Thanksgiving, anything can happen. Good luck to all this year.
  4. I kept a file open and jotted down a few brief notes after making each pick, because I figured we'd be at this for 2 weeks and I honestly wouldn't remember my rationale for my early picks otherwise. Pro tip: don't do this when you're on a videoconference with three senior executives and there's a possibility they'll spring questions on you. 1.07 Davante Adams GBP WR2 HOF talent, HOF QB, and a target monster on what should still be a pretty good offense. As I said I don't love the 7-hole this year - several good options there and things thin out pretty quickly on the way back. Also considered: none. 2.06 Kenyan Drake ARI RB10 Considering Drake's history as a bellcow RB spans a grand total of 8 games, Kingsbury declining to supplement the position in either FA or the draft is pretty meaningful. The newly Nuk-lear-powered Cards should have a high-octane offense in 2020 with Drake being a key part of it. Also considered: Jacobs, Godwin. 3.07 Clyde Edwards-Helaire KCC RB15 I thought RB15 might have been a reach for a raw rookie widely seen as the 3rd or 4th-best RB in his own draft class ... but 2 weeks later the expert consensus has him even higher because Chiefs, so what do I know? Probably less in this case than Andy Reid, or at least I hope. RB in particular in the fantasy realm has always been just as much about opportunity as talent. Also considered: Gurley, Smith-Schuster. 4.06 Le'Veon Bell NYJ RB19 Unlike my first two RB picks this one isn't about ceiling but floor. I don't see many scenarios where a healthy Bell doesn't get 250 touches and turn them into 1,200-1,400 yards. Should spend 10+ weeks in my starting lineup. Also considered: none. 5.07 Tyler Higbee LAR TE7 With 12 teams and only a marginal PPR boost I came real close to punting the position entirely. But I already had that strategy at QB aaaaaand I could just see myself trying to somehow squeeze eight QB/TE/DST picks into six rounds later on. Higbee vs. Engram was a coin flip but the vacated targets from Cooks tipped the scales. Also considered: Engram, Metcalf, Sutton. 6.06 Terry McLaurin WAS WR27 I was irritated but not surprised that DK, Sutton and Hilton were all snapped up in between my picks as I saw a tier break at WR after them. Ingram was someone I stared at for a while here, but ultimately decided against tying up yet another flex spot this early. Scary Terry has already shown his ability to work as the #1 and has the potential for a true breakout season if Haskins can pull himself up to even an average QB. 7.07 Noah Fant DEN TE12 Nothing at all I really liked on the board at this pick - the WRs all looked interchangeable and I was pretty sure one of my 4 remaining QB1's would make it back, so I settled on beefing up my TE depth with one of the few remaining names with every-week flex upside. I don't want to say this was a wasted pick, but in IBL I'd have swapped this and my 10th for two 8th-rounders here in two seconds. Also considered: Hunt, Landry. 8.06 Carson Wentz PHI QB13 I had every intention of punting QB until later but, with QBs going a little quicker than I expected in a 1-QB format, I figured I wouldn't get another shot to land a good bet for a top-10 season. My incoming plan was to draft three late names anyway, so this should let me wait a few rounds on the other two. Also considered: Stafford, Landry. 9.07 Marquise Brown BAL WR37 10.06 John Brown BUF WR43 At this point I'm pretty well set everywhere but WR (and DST, but even with the boost in scoring there's no need to panic first). With best-ball scoring and deep rosters these are my favorite type of WR to stockpile - high-variance speedsters who might disappear entirely one week and put up 25 points the next. Also considered: Slayton, Sanders, Diontae Johnson. 11.07 Ravens BAL Def2 As with Ref's superflex league, I think the higher scoring and positional variance warrants both rostering 4 DSTs and paying up for at least one. I took the 49ers last go-around so viva la difference, this time the Ravens it is. Also considered: 49ers DST. 12.06 Ryan Tannehill TEN QB19 For waiting until the halfway point of the draft for my QB2, I didn't expect be able to get the guy who finished QB4 on a PPG basis as a starter last year. Also considered: none. 13.07 Justin Jefferson MIN WR56 My second draft pick who's fresh off a 2019 national championship so, ummm, Geaux Tigers! Cousins has always relied on slot WRs as a security blanket and the Vikings spending first-round capital on Jefferson despite the embarrassment of WR riches in the draft gives me no reason to expect that will change. Also considered: Miller, Fitzgerald. 14.06 Buccaneers TBB Def13 15.07 Jets NYJ Def20 The former, a thoroughly mediocre defense paired with an outstanding offense and coaching staff. The latter, an outstanding defense paired with a thoroughly mediocre offense and coaching staff. Pick your poison! 16.06 Eric Ebron PIT TE24 The 2019 Steelers had a team QB rating of 76. I feel like this is a rare case of statistics actually underrating the awfulness; 76 was the league average QB rating in 1989, and there's no way the 1989 NFL as a whole was as bad throwing the ball as Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges are, or we'd all have gouged our eyes out decades ago. Anyway! The air game should be back to near-normal in the 'Burgh, and Ebron should be one of several beneficiaries. 17.07 Falcons ATL Def25 Not a real appetizing group of defenses left on the table, so close my eyes and take a blind stab. Also considered: Cards DST. 18.06 Jarrett Stidham NEP QB28 A Wentz / Tannehill duo far exceeded my ingoing expectations for the wait-on-QB strategy, so I wasn't necessarily desperate for a QB3. But with <$1m in cap space, Cam / Jameis / Dalton were never serious options for NE - so Belichick forgoing a QB in the draft should give Stidham's stock a major boost. At #210, why not? Also considered: Tyrod Taylor, Duke Johnson, Boston Scott. 19.07 Darrynton Evans TEN RB56 Mike Vrabel handed the ball off to Derrick Henry 303 times last year. Yes, Henry is the approximate size of an Abrams tank, but still, that's a heavy workload. As an ankle-breaking burner, Evans shouldn't just be a Dion Lewis fill-in but a real thunder-and-lightning complement in this run-heavy offense. 100 touches as a rookie wouldn't surprise me. Also considered: Jaylen Samuels, Rashaad Penny. 20.06 Brandon Aiyuk SFO WR75 I have no idea how this team came 7 minutes away from a Lombardi when their skill-position personnel philosophy exactly mirrors the Russians' at Stalingrad: Just throw more bodies at it! I guess at least this means the first-round rookie has plenty of opportunity there for the taking. Also considered: Tee Higgins. 21.07 Mason Crosby GBP PK17 22.06 Chris Boswell PIT PK18 With multiple guys at the front of the draft still needing multiple kickers, I figured this was my last best chance to lock down two guaranteed point producers. Also considered: none. 23.07 Danny Amendola DET WR88 Finished WR48 last year despite playing half the season with something named a (checks notes) David Blough at QB. He'll probably finish right around WR48 again this season, 'cause that's what he does. Given that we have to start half of these rosters every week, I'll take that. 24.06 Joshua Kelley LAC RB68 With Gordon's 205 touches out the door, discussions about Ekeler vs. Justin Jackson miss the point that they're very similar guys. Kelley's more of a straight-ahead, move-the-pile RB, but with enough added speed and athleticism that he very well could play the Melly role in that offense. Also considered: Brian Hill, Anthony McFarland. 25.07 Miles Boykin BAL WR96 I'll play the "reversion to the mean" game and assume that the Ravens won't be 32nd in pass attempts again, which should lift all boats, at least slightly. Also considered: any of about 10 remaining 2018-2020 WR draftees. ************* A surprisingly high percentage of the time, when I go into drafts with a specific strategy and stick to my process, the end result winds up not really appealing to me on first glance. I gotta say this is one of those times. TE is potentially underwhelming for the amount of draft capital I spent. Lack of depth seems like it could be a problem, with mid-round rookies at RB4/5 and a QB3 with 4 career pass attempts - although OTOH, with this scoring system I'll only really need to find 2 skill-position scores each week as I'll very often be flexing a DST2. On the other other hand ... perhaps 2020 with its upending of spring activities and TC isn't the best time to be leaning on a bunch of rooks. Thanks again to Ref for putting something new out there. Looking forward to seeing how it all shakes out. Best of luck to all.
  5. Really like this squad with one glaring exception. Jones and Burrow should be a fine pairing. Kyle Allen was steaming hot garbage last year and in this format he still averaged 22ppg. If you can get that from Burrow and 25ppg from Jones in a best-ball you'll pretty much keep pace with the pack. Taylor is my favorite back from the 2020 class and he got a dream landing spot so I wouldn't call 3.03 a reach. Lindsay is a tough nut to crack ... I was shocked to see he only caught 35 balls last year (thought more like 55) so on one hand - how would he hold any value if most of his 1,011/7 rushing goes away? - on the other hand - if he transitions to a pure receiving back, well, that's what Ekeler was with Melly in LAC and he still put up RB2 numbers. At RB40 he's worth the gamble. And I noted earlier that where you got Waller and Parker was highway robbery. OTOH I want zero, nada, nothing to do with DJ this season. Maybe it's unfounded but I'm convinced he's chained to the giant boat anchor that is Teddy KGB's complete unwillingness to throw past the sticks. If you watched Amari his last 10-15 games in Oakland with Carr, that combo's not just fantasy poison, it's ####### infuriating. For your first draft in a long time it's a great start though.
  6. Tough to argue with this. Also, Ry's first 7 picks already make for a nice starting lineup ... I've seen some unorthodox draft approaches win these things but in the 18-man SSL/MBSL I've personally never had success with them. Better to get solid starters up front and go BPA the rest of the way IMO. Although if you want to throw an "everything breaks right" projection on each team, I could see Slob running away with this thing.
  7. Added another high-floor guy at QB2 - with the 18-man limit it's tough to find room for a QB3 so I want a little bit of a security blanket for those weeks Allen disappears. Finally went off the reservation a little bit with the Guice pick. Superstar upside when healthy .... not that I ever expect that to happen, but even with short benches I'm gonna have to find room for a few dart-throws if I want to beat 15 other guys, so WTH not.
  8. Draft not a big impact on this team - probably more up than down. Carr probably locked in as the Week 1 starter in Vegas and better yet got a ton of shiny new toys to play with. If we redo this draft today he goes seven or eight rounds higher. I figured my best case was leaving the draft with the Fins' #1/3 WRs with #2/3 more likely. Inexplicably I still have their top 2. Tua's the real deal and Fitz isn't afraid to let 'er rip so QB isn't a big concern. D-Jax gets some nine-route competition but given how barren that corps was to begin with they can still both eat. No new threats to any of my young TEs, not that the 2020 draft crop should have anyone looking over their shoulder. Only one downside and it's a doozy - the Kerryon Experiment appears to be over in Detroit. Muted impact since I got him well below ADP to begin with but still stings. Hill goes from backup to afterthought in BAL but whatever, it's an RB6. Way above average at QB and DST which in this format should cover up whatever other holes I have. Best of luck all.
  9. noticed that too. Up until these drafts kicked off, if you had put a gun to my head I legit couldn't even have told you whether Cordarrelle Patterson was still in the NFL ... and if you wanted to know what team he was on your next call would be to the coroner.
  10. In full-PPR it's really tough to put up top-5ish RB numbers without major pass game involvement*, and Jacobs only had 27 targets last year. Not 27 catches ... 27 targets. And that was before the Raiders went out and drafted about 14 different pass-catchers. I think he's more a floor play in that he's probably good for 1,300-1,400 total yards and 8-10 TDs, but he'd need to catch closer to 60 balls to be a real upside threat and I just don't see that happening. * - yes, I'm aware of the irony in preaching this to a guy whose top back finished RB2 last season with 18 catches ... clearly I just need Jacobs to score 20 TDs this year, LOL
  11. 1.14 Kittle, George SFO TE2 2.03 Jacobs, Josh LVR RB11 3.14 Sutton, Courtland DEN WR19 4.03 Woods, Robert LAR WR24 5.14 Allen, Josh BUF QB9 6.03 Landry, Jarvis CLE WR34 For the past few survivors I've pursued a ton of ceiling at the expense of week-in, week-out consistency. I luckboxed my way into one runner-up finish but otherwise been getting bounced earlier than usual. So I came into this one trying to make sure I got some boring, consistent types at the top of the roster. I guess I'm doing it right because while I've got some ceiling with Allen, the rest of this team bores the hell out of me.
  12. @NorrisB with Waller / Parker at the 4/5 turn has the two SOD’s so far IMO.
  13. Peyton Manning's second-to-last year in the league: 395-597 (66.2%), 39 TD, 15 INT, 7.68 ANY/A, 72.0 QBR Peyton Manning's last year in the league: 198-331 (59.8%), 9 TD, 17 INT, 4.52 ANY/A, 43.9 QBR It can happen just that fast.
  14. Sorry fellas. Don't know what happened there. I got a text when my 2nd-round pick was up (autodrafted round 1) but nothing this go-round. Only reason I didn't time out was I figured it was strange I hadn't been OTC in over a day ...