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Mr. Irrelevant

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Everything posted by Mr. Irrelevant

  1. I'm not saying it's impossible, but when is the last time a team with a 60/40 pass/run ratio supported two top-24 fantasy RBs? I wouldn't put it past Reid and Bienemy to run Bell out of the slot on half the snaps - but absent that I don't see a path to that sort of joint value.
  2. Also you hear a lot about guys being "better for real life than fantasy" but Wentz is the rare example of someone who could be the opposite. The Eagles are 5th in plays run this year, 1st last year, 8th the year before that. They may not always be effective, but Pederson has never let the grass grow under their feet. And with their weaknesses in the secondary it's not like a lot of teams will be trying to run the ball and grind clock against them, either. If he can get to the point where he's even the 20th-best QB statistically, that could still make him close to a top-12 fantasy QB on volume alone.
  3. And BTW, I'm not taking a stance on whether Dallas should or shouldn't give him that kind of money, merely that they'll have to if they want to keep him. In fact, Wentz offers something of a cautionary tale. It's pretty clear his injury sapped his ability to create plays outside the pocket and throw deep while on the run ... and IMO if that's not the biggest reason he's disappointed the past couple of years it's got to be right up there. Dak had a very similar skillset in that regard and so I'd certainly be concerned about a similar post-injury trajectory.
  4. You'd have to go way back in the mists of time to about 18 months ago, when the Eagles re-signed Wentz. He got pretty close to top-of-market money (4 / $128), or at least what had been considered such pre-Mahomes. You can argue his ACL / MCL tear happened a year earlier on his personal career timeline, and so it's not an exact parallel ... but does anyone think Lurie and Roseman would have been successful at lowballing him if it had been the latter? I think Dak may well be OK accepting a slight discount to stay with the Cowboys ... but I also think his and Jerry's definitions of the term may wind up $10's of millions apart.
  5. IMO this is the most likely of the many scenarios. I think however far apart the two sides were last offseason, that gap is far likelier to be wider now than it is to get closed.
  6. I can see this, but I can also see Jerry saying to himself, "wait, I was willing to offer a healthy Dak $x three months ago, and now you want me to offer the same $x to a Dak who's fresh off a catastrophic leg injury?" And his pride not letting him do it.
  7. I read (sorry I can't remember where or I'd link) a similar bubble idea that I loved. Four 'regional' bubbles for the East, North, South and West. Each team plays a 10-game in-region schedule consisting of their divisional opponents 2x each and the other four teams in the bubble 1x each. Two teams qualify for the playoffs from each bubble (I'd have the #1 automatically qualify, #3 play #4 with the winner taking on #2 for the second playoff spot, but that's personal preference). Those 8 teams go to a playoff bubble in January and you hold the typical playoff schedule from there. If you wanted to make some additional money (and heaven knows that's the NFL), you could start half the divisions off in a different regional bubble and have everyone open the schedule with a separate 4-game inter-conference slate for a 14-game total. You could have constructed something approximating a normal schedule even in a bubble environment. Whether you'd have ever gotten the NFLPA to agree to anything approximating a normal duration season in a bubble is the bigger question IMO.
  8. But it's not like Moses came down with that schedule inscribed on stone tablets. They drew it up in the first place! They had every opportunity to make it as malleable as possible to maximize the amount of shuffling they could do within a 17-week time frame ... and for whatever reason, they chose not to. As a result they're already at a point where moving one game out of its current spot requires shuffling 8 other games around down the line. It's safe to say the logistics aren't gonna get easier from here. So they can go on all they want about the sanctity of the 17-week calendar, but this is the bed they made. They're gonna find out pretty soon it isn't much fun to lie in.
  9. If you run twice more you're never gonna get a first down against that front seven and you won't burn more than 10 seconds off the clock. Which means you'll be handing the Bears the ball back near midfield, needing to go maybe 25 yards for a game-winning FG, and they'll still have a timeout at the 2:00 warning. Your GW odds are likely worse in that scenario than they are if you give Tom Brady two shots to find an open man and get you a first down. I mean, that's the data-driven answer. The real answer is that if Bruce Arians had called three straight runs in that situation I'd have fallen out of my chair in shock.
  10. Add me to the chorus who thinks Godwin is underpriced at 10. I can't think of too many dynasty scenarios where as an Adams or Nuk owner I wouldn't take Godwin straight up. I want to say the same about Golladay but TBH I had no idea he was a couple weeks from turning 27, so in that light what I'd be willing to offer is probably an overpay. Others I'd be buying at these prices: Chark, Diontae / Claypool, Hardman, Edwards, Duvernay, Hurd, Boykin, Auden Tate. I'd be selling: Amari, A-Rob, Boyd, Parker, Landry, Fuller, Lazard, Kirk, M. Williams, Cooks (who's definitely not a Ram any more, BTW). TBH there are very few names in that WR38-60 range I wouldn't be looking for an excuse to move off my rosters.
  11. No thanks. The Pats are the only other team that needs WR difference-makers as badly as we do. And if the Sith Lord was still willing to eat the sunk cost of the 2nd-rounder and cut Sanu loose, that tells me all I need to know about his prospects. ETA: If we're looking for a difference-maker, I'd give Cinci a buzz and see if we can shake Auden Tate loose for a 6th or 7th. It looks like he's gotten buried on the depth chart with Higgins' arrival but IMO the kid could have a bright future somewhere.
  12. @BassNBrew earns the freebie easily with 181.95. Lots of low scores for a 15-game week, present company included, but Julio's departure with the hammy dooms @Norseman to exile with 83.
  13. @bicycle_seat_sniffer wins immunity by 1 yard over @BassNBrew. I'm sure it's happened before but ... wow. @FUBAR and his Titans-laden roster manages only 88 and bids adieu.
  14. Low-scoring MNF tilts mean @bro1ncos never had a chance and he bows out with 95.7. 178.5 is good enough for yours truly to earn my first immunity (in any survivor) this year.
  15. “Don’t panic. But if you’re going to panic ... panic first.” The NFL could very well have to choose between losing (or even just postponing) a week now and the entire rest of the season in a couple of weeks. The former seems the obvious choice, which is why I’m confident they’ll choose the latter.
  16. Ha to you both! I've got to start Gaskin, Preston WIlliams, and Gesicki. Oddly enough, I couldn't have picked a better week schedule-wise to get painted into that particular corner.
  17. I have nothing at all to base this on, but my guess is that the actual super-secret owners' plan was to create bubble(s) of their own a la the NBA/NHL. From there, my less cynical take is: they knew even announcing that option in the summer would create open revolt among the players - to the point they might not even get the season off the ground - so in public they're playing it by ear. My more cynical (and IMO more probable) take is: they then realized they grossly underestimated the logistical challenges associated with sheltering 2,000+ players and staff in-place and decided to just have a bare-bones version as a hush-hush "break glass in case of emergency" option.
  18. My 3-0 team is an 18-point underdog this week. 10-team 2-QB PPR - Ryan, Wentz (Big Ben out) Taylor, Gaskin (Barkley IR, Carson out) Julio, OBJ, P. Williams (Godwin out) Gesicki (J. Smith out) Gallup Elliott, ARZ ugh.
  19. They can argue all they want. Remember a couple years back when Florida was under hurricane warning and the Week 1 TB / MIA game was changed to their bye, on maybe 2 days' notice? The players screamed bloody murder but it didn't change the outcome one bit. Same thing here. The NFL will come up with their solution and tell the NFLPA to choke it down with a smile.
  20. That's a big assumption, considering we couldn't even get out of September without the first game being called off. Week 18 should be a last resort, which I would use only if cases spike towards the end of the regular season. The NFL doesn't have a ton of scheduling flexibility - but they have more now then they'll have next week, which is more than they'll have the following week, and so on. They should be using what flexibility they do have to its fullest while they still can.
  21. The problem with conditional rosters is that it's a lot of manual labor for the commish - emphasis on "manual" as very few if any sites support it. Not to mention that at some point, especially in this environment, it's going to call for some subjective judgment (this week we heard about the positive tests on Tuesday. What happens if news breaks about one of the teams playing MNF at 5pm Sunday, when all but four teams have already kicked off? Or five minutes after SNF kicks off?) For both reasons I haven't jumped to suggest this option in the league I run. Balanced against this is that any decision a league makes now will, like it or not, set a precedent for the rest of the season. This week it's potentially one or two games impacted. What if next time it's a half-dozen? Teams could easily wind up with two or three unavoidable zeroes in their lineup. Is that "fair" in any real sense of the term?
  22. Going into a shell like that is one of the clearest external signals that somebody's losing their self-confidence. I remember watching David Duval around the turn of the century - he used to be totally unafraid to go toe-to-toe with Tiger. 220 yards over water out of the rough to a shallow green? Sure, I've got that shot in my bag. Grip it and rip it. He was never close to Tiger skill-wise but he'd make shots like that all the time, just because he was certain he could do it. He missed the better part of a year due to injuries and when he came back, he'd stare down that exact same shot, ponder it for a minute, then grab the 9-iron out of the bag. He started playing not to lose instead of to win. You can't do that in a field that's 90% mental and ever be successful. I have to wonder if Doug's inside his own head at this point.
  23. Arguing over whether Gase or Patricia is a worse head coach is like arguing whether lutefisk tastes worse than haggis.
  24. Since Wentz came into the league, 20 QBs have attempted over 1,500 passes. Wentz ranks 14th of 20 in both completion percentage and ANY/A. The 6 guys behind him are Bortles, Newton, Eli, Dalton, and Winston / Goff (on C%) or Keenum / Flacco (on ANY/A). These are not lists of names you want your nine-figure franchise QB to be even remotely associated with. I thought Wentz would be great and want Wentz to be great ... but I said the same things about Mariota a couple years ago, too. You can hand-wave things away only so much - at some point the numbers have to speak for themselves.