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Mr Non Sequitur

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Everything posted by Mr Non Sequitur

  1. Looks like the pats showed their hand for the season tonight. Ryan Mallet is the new QB and they will only be able to run about 25 plays a game(Is that a typo?-CBS). 12 passes, 13 runs for the entire game? I'm sure BB and the Pats take these preseason games as seriously as we do.
  2. I feel like Nelson has earned the right to be drafted pretty high. In sat seasons owners have been able in many drafts to grab him at a slight discount. I hope he makes it out of the 2nd but I won't be surprised after Marshall is taken if folks aren't quick to snatch him up.
  3. Of course my numbers project out to a 16 game season. Has the NFL shortened their season and I somehow missed it, or are you definitively projecting Vereen to only play 8 games again this year? Because if you're not projecting a halving of his utilization, it kinda HAS to be one or the other. People did the same with Amendola last year and started reaching for him in the 3rd round, 4th in most drafts. He had/has a lengthy injury history. I usually like my players who I plan on starting to be able to show that they can stay moderately healthy and relevant for weeks and weeks at a time. Have you looked over Vereen's career numbers to this point? He is almost a non factor in the running game, perhaps that changes in year 4 but at the end of the year last season he avg 2 carries per game, that's a FACT! Now you want folks to adopt your projections of 16 games and receiving numbers that could possibly crack some all time numbers for RBs. I'm not here to try and rain on anyone's parade, I'm asking questions because the price tag on him for basically a single threat RB seems high. Yes Sproles produced some really big numbers in the receiving department in NO but he also did it there for a few seasons, granted no one was sure when he went to NO exactly what his role would be. FBG has him about mid 5th, that's almost the 6th round. I think in many local Hooters draft leagues you can get him in the 5th-6th, that might not be too bad honestly. I see people talking 4th which means a panic and some folks reaching in the 3rd. Andre Ellington is about the same size, had about 1,000 combined, less than 150 carries and just under 40 receptions and he is going mid 3rd. I think this should be an open dialogue and there doesn't need to be a rush to be right or wrong one way or the other. I'm just trying to ask what i feel are logical questions based on stat history of RBs who lean heavily on the passing game.
  4. he left early week 16 with a groin injury he caught 12 balls on 17 targets in week 14, so I have no idea wtf you're talking about there His last 3 games of 2013, am I seeing things? I see 3 out of 7 targets, 1 out of 2, and 3 out of 5 or 7 receptions as I mentioned. Game 14-12/15 3 receptions Game 15-12/22 1 reception Game 16-12/29 3 receptions Difference between weeks and games. Do his last 3 weeks of the season show the numbers I highlighted or no? I'm kind of surprised folks are getting that dicey about this. I linked to PFR, can anyone explain the Pats game plan those last 3 weeks of 2013? Here's a real shocker, Vereen in 3 seasons has not gone over 700 yards combined, never had 100 carries in a season either. To act like there is no risk here or possible swings is a little obtuse IMO. But to each their own.
  5. he left early week 16 with a groin injury he caught 12 balls on 17 targets in week 14, so I have no idea wtf you're talking about there His last 3 games of 2013, am I seeing things? I see 3 out of 7 targets, 1 out of 2, and 3 out of 5 or 7 receptions as I mentioned. Game 14-12/15 3 receptions Game 15-12/22 1 reception Game 16-12/29 3 receptions
  6. I think 8-10 is generous, I highlighted his largest number of attempts, he doesn't routinely get 10 carries a game. 106/21=5 rush attempts per game the last 2 seasons vs Ridley 468/30=15+ per game. With White entering the picture I don't see Vereen getting a larger share of the pie. Especially with more weapons and more guys coming back healthy to start the season. I see him in the 850-1,000 yds total for the season and TD will be harder to predict but he isn't gonna see a lot of red zone looks on the ground. What are your totals right now or do you go more on a feeling/Info read than hard stats? Was Vereen hurt weeks 14-16 last year? He got all of 6 rushing attempts with Ridley in the dog house at the time IIRC and he racked up 7 total receptions over those same 3 weeks. He did manage a couple TDs but that seems kind of fluky on such a low number of attempts and covers up some interesting numbers. Food for thought, always like your posts.
  7. possibly 2012 BTW, 49-19, same Jets where Sanchez ran into the butt of his OL. And that was Vereen's only receiving TD all season. In fact he only caught only 58 yards worth of offense the other 15 games combined. well, he was in on 13% of the snaps that year, with woodhead getting 34%. is this actually the snap distribution you're predicting for 2014? Good question. I gotta think about that, I'll get back to you.
  8. I added a few more notes but I don't think they can rely on the play you highlighted to rest their season on Can I get some Kool-Aid while you're standing there? Thanks bud. I don't hate him, he just is gone before I would want to draft him, that's a fair statement.
  9. possibly Looks good untouched and busted coverage, maybe he can rack 4-5 of those over the season. They do play the Jets twice. 2012 BTW, 49-19, same Jets where Sanchez ran into the butt of his OL. And that was Vereen's only receiving TD all season. In fact he only caught only 58 yards worth of offense the other 15 games combined.
  10. Hi D, please name a few RBs who were speed guys and added 5-10 lbs of muscle and their game in the NFL took off. I'm not saying it has not happened but I can't think of very many if any. Hoping others can think of a few.
  11. I do not understand the Shane Vereen hype. I can accept that he has played some great games from a FF POV...but I truly think some FF owners out there are not thinking clearly. That could be because they have already drafted or own Vereen in dynasty. Of course everyone that has posted nice things about him will cry they don't own him in any leagues but we(SP) know better. Vereen's top 10 rush att per game over his 1st 3 seasons: 14, 11, 10, 10, 10, 8, 8, 8, 7, 5...I don't see a guy that will command 14-16 carries a game, he is at best 8-10 guy IMO so the bulk is gonna be via receptions. Now before I roll those numbers out, think about this for a second, you really believe that BB and Brady are dreaming at night of throwing 5 and 6 yd dumps to Vereen on their way to the Super Bowl? Vereen racked up 47 receptions in about 8 games last year so everyone has him penciled in for a cool 100 this year. I remember when SJax went over 90 one season in receptions and everyone was positive he would catch at least 75 balls the following year and I think we all know how that story ended. RBs that can make a living in the NFL as mostly receiving threats are far and few between, very few can continue to produce year in and year out. One of the best ever IMO was a FB from Ohio State named Keith Byars. If you are doing projections and you have Vereen at about 80, I think you're making a big mistake. 1st of all, why pump that big of a number in there? How about 50 receptions and perhaps 800/900 total yards, 5-6 TD? Why the need to try and blow this guy up when you have Ridley with 450+ rushing attempts the last 2 seasons and a very versatile rookie in James White who seems like he is going to get some piece of the pie there and seems the most poised to be a 2 or 3 down back on entire drives. I'm not suggesting anyone can be a 300 touch guy in this offense, BB just doesn't do it that way lately, oh the days of Corey Dillon. So I'm not trying to pick a fight with Vereen supporters but I find it a little extreme how many balls people are counting on him to grab. Gronk, Edelman, Amendola(while healthy), the rest of the WRs who will have to be better. And I just want it to be said, do not put it above the Pats to go out and sign a WR or trade for a guy late in camp as the season is ready to roll that could shake this up big time. A lot of WRs have been linked to possible trade discussions. I realize it's the off season and everyone is trading everyone but it would seem like NE would be ripe if the right situation presents itself. I'm not anti-Vereen but I sure am not eager to run to the podium. Not sure where I see his ADP but to this point it feels a little high for me.
  12. Miles Austin Absolutely, as long as the hammies are good then for 8 weeks you got a guy who will see a ton of targets. He has been A-1 in camp, leader in the locker room and has brought a veteran presence they sorely need. If he can stay healthy(so worn out) he should be a terrific find in the double digit rounds to have for bye weeks and unexpected injuries.
  13. Anywhere in here is acceptable but do understand you have rough waters ahead getting in range of making the playoffs. 1.09 WR Dez Bryant 2.04 RB L.Bell 3.09 WR Andre Johnson 4.04 RB Bishop Sankey 5.09 RB Ray Rice 6.04 WR Josh Gordon 7.09 TE Greg Olsen 8.04 WR Golden Tate/Reggie Wayne, pick a flavor 9.09 QB Tony Romo 10.04 QB Jay Cutler Now this would work and I can see where a trio of Dez/Gordon/AJ for the playoff stretch could be pretty lethal. You got 3 starters at RB, a decent TE, solid 1-2 punch at QB assuming you were the 12th team to draft a QB.
  14. You can find anything you like to back up the position of Moreno or Miller. -Philbin originally said that Moreno was the starter when he signed. However when he showed up out of shape and then needed knee surgery, can you understand how that might impact the coach and front office? -Miller comes in having a great camp. he went 6/36, 2/27/TD on Sat's scrimmage so don't say he can't catch the ball, he certainly can and simply has not been asked to do it a lot to this point. I think Miller is perfectly capable of 40 catches but the Phins simply have more talent at the receiver and TE spots so they tend to throw there. -Miami is going to struggle along the OL which is where Moreno should have an edge. Moreno should be the 3rd down back. I think Miller will get a few more carries. 2012: Mia 369 carries RB1/2/3 2013: Mia 286 carries RB1/2/3 Bill Lazor/OC: I took his 3 years at Virginia in the ACC, kind of interesting and his 1 year in Phi where he technically was the QB coach. 2013 Phi: 389 carries RB1/2 2012 VA: 297 carries RB1/2 over 12 games 2011 VA: 336 carries RB1/2 over 12 games 2010 VA: 297 carries RB1/2 over 12 games It is interesting that Lazor seems to run the ball quite a bit more than Philbin does. You must take notice of this. This could easily be a sizable split both ways. Stats could be something like: MIller 200/800, 32/200 or 1,000 combined and maybe 4-5 TD if he can break a few. Moreno 160/640, 40/300 or close to 1,000 combined and if he has the goal line work then you can pencil in 6-8 TDs here. Just trying to put numbers to machine here instead of arguing tastes great less filling.
  15. Still feel like Miller will be the lead back for now, Moreno assuming he is healthy and in game shape, he can still be useful for Miami and the fan base, not sure I can envision big numbers for him. Moreno was paid like a starter, we'll see.
  16. In less than a week this went from Moreno not playing in the preseason to back at full practices. We've heard this story before with Miller IMO. Moreno's probably going to be pretty useful again. good post
  17. -Good agent -Naive owner -HC who could care less about public opinions $19M a season, QBs are going to get $25-$30M a season very soon. If you think Dalton's agent could pull one over on Mike Brown you got another thing coming. The Bengals could get out for as little a 2 years /$25m total. Really a $16m/year average and a lot of that is at the end. He has escalators based on playoff round/winning Super Bowl. -QG Bill Cosby: "If you think I was put on this Earth to be your slave, you've got another thing coming" Seems like it is backloaded which makes it a prove it to us deal while still keeping him under contract and happy as long as he produces. We'll see how this plays out but I like how you and a few others found some details on the money and actually what he will make over the next 3 years.
  18. Until I read a story where it says that only $10M or so of this is guaranteed then I think it's perfectly fine to be critical. Pete Prisco is an NFL brown nosed as are about 50-75% of the media who cover the NFL and are paid for their analysis. Sure it's a great contract if the Bengals win the SB, what a fantastic column Pete. Thanks Faust for the link
  19. If New York is up 1-2 TDs going into the late 3rd/early 4th, certainly Williams will see more action when they are ahead and trying to chew up clock. How often will that scenario happen for NY? I am more likely to think they will be behind or close and need a RB who is a dual threat and can help them get back into the game. Small things to think about before folks get overly excited about Williams...he did look good though, amiright?
  20. This is a real interesting story to follow...for as good as White has looked in camp the word is Vereen looks fantastic...I just don't see Vereen not being a very big part of this offense if he can finally stay far as real football goes the Pats have a chance to have a real nice backfield this year...there's a lot of quality young talent there... Absolutely but Vereen is not a threat in the run game, at least so far in his career. A few hand offs but his main returns are on reception totals out of the backfield. Ridley and White are going after a different piece of the pie IMO.
  21. -Good agent -Naive owner -HC who could care less about public opinions $19M a season, QBs are going to get $25-$30M a season very soon.
  22. Agreed, people are getting WAY ahead of themselves. When the Giants #1s were playing the Bills #1s it was all Jennings on the field. And to the people saying Jennings isn't valuable enough as a 3-5th round pick in redrafts this year are high. Realize there were only two drives of 1s vs 1s (NYG O vs BUF D). Each was a 3 and out (well Eli fumbled on the 2nd drive after a first down) but 7 plays in total none the less. Of those 7 plays... 5 of them went through Jennings. Then when they came back out against the 2nd team for the Bills they ran 11 plays in total 5 of which went through Jennings. So 18 plays and Jennings amounted for 10 of them. Obviously, he can't maintain that type of ratio in a real season game. But to everyone freaking about Williams, relax he saw 4 plays with the #1 offense against the #2 defense. Jennings got more touches than him with the #1 offense even after the #2's came out for Buffalo. To me? The biggest take away from last night that everyone seems to be ignoring. Rashad Jennings caught 3 passes on 7 offensive snaps. If anything, his value is arrow up for me and with the Williams production the other big takeaway from me would be to arrow down the WRs as that O-Line looked like a dumpster fire covered in sh%7 last night. Eli was more or less snapping the ball and getting it away to his RB because he was about to be laid a second or two later. I have a feeling these may have a lot of screen game type production this season with less to go around for the actual wide-outs. Think Kansas City (or Detroit minus Calvin) more so than Green Bay. Nice post and with the Giants still not "identifying"(NBC Crew) their TE, someone from the RBs will be called upon for dump offs and it looks like Jennings might have a career year. Jennings is 29 but far from abused in the NFL, had 36 receptions in Oakland last season, Eli is an upgrade over whatever was there last season. I also think Williams will get a lot of the goal line work when they want to punch it in. Question for Williams supporters...he just entered the game, as a defense what do you think the Giants are going to do? With Jennings you are not sure, with Williams it seems t be run. You don't want to be predictable so I feel that works against Williams being the lead back this season.
  23. Manuel threw for about 200 yds and a TD+ per game, a 77.7 rating, 20 years ago he would hailed a Savior but in today's NFL that won't even get you into the top 2/3 of the league. There's a lot of questions here including Marrone who I don't know is especially qualified to develop a young raw QB.
  24. Speaking of dense. Let's get the definitions right. Where I live there is a place called burger-fi, not sure they are everywhere but basically it is a chain that has burgers and fries that add up to about $10-$15 depending on what you order but they have a beer selection that puts them in a different dimension than 5G. The beers are like $3 or $4 for a 12-16 oz pour and a good chunk of it is craft beer. If you are gonna charge what 5G is and want to enter the gourmet zone than I think you better act the part. 5G is limited in what you can order similar to In N Out, 5G prides themselves in burning the burgers to kingdom come and back with very little flavor, even the way they serve those greasy fries in a brown bag and offer no plates or silverware to grab them with, they might as well say 2 savages walking thru the door because that's how they treat you, like a bunch o savages in that place. I just do not understand the appeal of 5G. If I could perhaps get the burger cooked to order then maybe that would give them a leg up but no. No shakes, burger quality is no better than In n Out, I defy anyone to say 5G literally is tastier bite for bite because I just do not agree. Even if 5G charged what In n Out does I still would go to In n Out, to each their own.