Which, when considering the guy is being mocked as a top 5 pick, should give a little pause as to the utility of the numbers you're using. I know I already mentioned this earlier in the thread, and I know that it remains to be seen what actually happens both in terms of his draft stock and his eventual production, and I know that you shouldn't try to fit your work to get "expected" results, but this is one of those that seems like a complete miss and wouldn't allow me to have much confidence in the rest of the results, tbh. Depends on the history. If ZWK's numbers have a decent track record at predicting overdrafted bust WRs then this becomes a red flag for Treadwell. If ZWK's numbers aren't there yet, then Treadwell may become part of the basis for revising the algorithm a few years down the road based on his success. I wasn't tracking these projections till this season...how did ZWK do with guys like Cordarelle Patterson or Justin Hunter or Kenny Britt? I was just looking at some things related to this. I have updated the list in the Elite NFL WRs tab of my spreadsheet to include the 2015 NFL season. Now there are 21 receivers who have entered the NFL since 2009 who have had successful fantasy careers (meaning 100+ career VBD). I don't have college receiving stats for 2 of them (Victor Cruz at UMass and Julian Edelman who was QB at Kent State), which leaves a sample of 19 WRs. 14 out of those 19 had an overall rating above 4.0 by my formula; 5 were below 4.0. (4.0 is a relatively high cutoff - from the 2009-2015 drafts there have been about 10 WRs per year above that level. They are listed in the Top Rated tab of the spreadsheet.) 5 is a small number of players to look at, so I also made a list of 15 other good NFL fantasy receivers who entered the NFL since 2009: 13 who seem likely to be on their way to successful fantasy careers (based on what they've done in the NFL so far) and 2 who seemed like they were on their way to successful fantasy careers before their careers were derailed by injuries or off-the-field issues. I've created an Emerging NFL WRs tab in the spreadsheet for them. I'm missing college stats on John Brown, which leaves 14 promising NFL players. 9 of those 14 had an overall rating above 4.0 by my formula. That gives us a list 33 successfulish NFL fantasy WRs (who I have college stats for), and I missed on 10 of them (by rating them below a 4.0 by my formula). That seems like a large enough group to start looking for patterns, so here are those 10 (ordered from lowest score to highest): Rating Player -14.12 Doug Baldwin -11.77 Josh Gordon -10.99 Antonio Brown -8.16 Martavis Bryant -5.40 Jarvis Landry -4.85 Mike Wallace -2.37 Kelvin Benjamin -2.28 Allen Hurns -0.29 Emmanuel Sanders 1.03 Randall Cobb (The next-lowest score from successful WRs is TY Hilton's 4.96, which right now would be good enough for third in the 2016 draft class.) The first thing that jumps out at me from this list is that I'm not the only one who missed on most of these players - only 4 out of the 10 went in the first 2 rounds of the draft. In terms of size there is a lot of variety: 3 of the guys on this list are big tall receivers (Benjamin, Bryant, Gordon), but many of them are slot receivers (Cobb, Sanders, Landry, Baldwin). Some of these guys have been catching passes in the NFL from elite quarterbacks - it seems likely that Cobb, Sanders, and Baldwin wouldn't have performed well enough in the NFL to make this list without that QB help. Some of these guys left school early - it's interesting that the 3 big guys (Benjamin, Bryant, and Gordon) all left as soon as they were eligible to. It's possible that some prototypical WRs are able to demonstrate things on tape before their raw production looks that great and then enter the draft early because of it - perhaps they would have put up big receiving numbers if they'd stuck around in college longer (and then my formula would have spotted their talent), but they didn't need to so they left early (though Bryant was only a 4th rounder, and it was off-the-field issues that drove Gordon out early). One other thing that was striking to me when I looked at these guys in the spreadsheet - here they are ranked by yards per target: YPT Player 12.74 Martavis Bryant 11.62 Kelvin Benjamin 11.47 Jarvis Landry 11.17 Allen Hurns 10.20 Doug Baldwin 10.20 Josh Gordon 10.18 Mike Wallace 9.39 Emmanuel Sanders 8.44 Antonio Brown 8.39 Randall Cobb Anything above 11.0 YPT is really good (this year, only 10 WRs reached that level). Even above 10.0 is good; average yards per target is close to Sanders's 9.39. Seven of these 10 guys topped 10.0 YPT, and 4 topped 11 YPT. They were held down in my formula mostly because they didn't attract a ton of targets (though Landry was hurt more by his horrible athleticism numbers at the combine). It looks like I should either be putting more weight in my formula on yards per target, or I should be more willing to doubt my formula and be more optimistic about players who have good yards per target but a mediocre overall rating by my formula. Those are the players who I missed on - the ones who had low overall ratings but succeeded (or seem likely to succeed) in the NFL. It's also worth looking at the low-rated players who didn't succeed, because our goal is to be able to distinguish those two groups in advance. Here is a complete list of every receiver rated below 4.0 who was drafted in the first 2 rounds since 2009, sorted by draft order: Rating Player -21.22 Darrius Heyward-Bey 0.93 Michael Floyd -2.37 Kelvin Benjamin -9.48 Cordarrelle Patterson -11.77 Josh Gordon -9.37 Arrelious Benn -0.55 Dorial Green-Beckham -2.11 Devin Funchess 2.23 Robert Woods 2.01 Titus Young 3.86 Paul Richardson -14.75 Mohamed Massaquoi -21.77 Greg Little -9.20 Aaron Dobson -5.40 Jarvis Landry 1.03 Randall Cobb If we move the cutoff up to 4.95 (right below TY Hilton's score), then the list of misses doesn't grow at all and 4 more early rounders get added to this list: Nelson Agholor, Justin Hunter, Ryan Broyles, and Rueben Randle. It's too soon to tell on some of these guys, but that's not a great group of receivers on the whole. Looking at the indicators that I picked out earlier for the misses: Green-Beckham and Funchess have the huge size thing going for them (Floyd & Little are pretty big too). In the 10.0+ YPT club, Benjamin, Landry, and Gordon are joined by Titus Young (12.27) and Mohamed Massaquoi (10.01). I'm not sure which of these guys left school early and I don't feel like looking them all up (I am pretty sure that Funchess left as soon as he could). Looking at the two receivers in this year's draft class who get a low rating from my formula but seem likely to get drafted early: Laquon Treadwell and Michael Thomas. Both have good size; we'll see if they qualify as huge (Thomas has a better chance at it). Treadwell is leaving school as soon as he's eligible; Thomas is leaving a year early but also a year later than he could have. Neither one is anywhere close to the 10.0 YPT club (Treadwell is at 8.39, Thomas at 7.90). Treadwell has the excuse for his non-overwhelming production that he was coming back from an injury this year and therefore possibly playing at less than 100%. On the whole, Treadwell seems more likely to succeed in the NFL and be added to my misses list, but neither of them seems promising enough for me to rate them near where other people will be taking them. What a great and thorough reply. You are an asset to this board. I think we can all agree we await the combine results so we can get a better read on the athleticism of this draft class.