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Second Sight

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About Second Sight

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  1. That's all on you for still watching espn.
  2. That sounds like a very personal question that none of us should feel comfortable answering. §
  3. Reggie Wayne's 2012 with more TDs is coming. Palmer wasn't sharp last night, but the line was giving him some time, and he's still looking for Larry. I really like the Cardinal's offense this season. I think that's wildly optimistic. The QBs are different, the pieces around them are different, the divisions they play in are different, etc. Wayne had almost 200 targets in 2012, I don't think Fitz ends up anywhere near that number. 194 to be exact. Fitz will likely be closer to 150. So you expect him to put up similar receptions and yards with more TDs while having ~44 fewer targets? Sticking with wildly optimistic. I think he could easily catch 100 balls on 150 targets. Especially if he's taking snaps from the slot. A little tongue in check, but I'll agree with that because his hands are so good. I think they said last night that he literally was credited with dropping one (ONE) ball last year. With hands like his, if he DOES get 194 targets, he will catch 170 of them. §
  4. So, what are all you guys who are drafting this weekend doing in regards to Gordon's draft spot? Where is he going?
  5. I'd like to challenge that statement. In the 8 weeks after Wayne went out, Hilton (in PPR), had a 35+ game, 3 18-24 games, 4 7.5-9 games, and a 2 pointer. In those same 8 weeks, for comparison sake, AJ Green, Calvin Johnson, D. Thomas, and Dez Bryant all had a game where they had 4-6 points. None, except for Calvin, had a game where they scored 35+. Each of these four had 1-3 more games where they scored in that 17-24 range. So the main difference in what we are calling boom/bust is that these four players all had 1-3 games where Hilton may have scored 8 and they may have scored 17. That's a difference and worth noting but, at the same time, that is comparing Hilton straight up to the elite of the elites in fantasy WRs. So, if you are setting your expectation for Hilton to be a top 5 WR in fantasy, then I can go along with the boom/bust idea because the bar is set extremely high. However, if you are setting the expectation of Hilton as being a top 15-18 WR, a very high and productive bar, then take note that when compared to those type of players, such as Pierre Garcon, Jordy Nelson, Keenan Allen, and Michael Floyd, he had extremely similar game totals and stats with them. They all had the low game. They all had those 7-9 pointers, a couple of 15s or so and a really good game here or there. Compared to them, all of which people are generally high on, he is just like them. Would you guess that, in the second half of the season, his stats look almost identical to Andre Johnson's? They do. Could you live with that production? Would you guess that, over the second half of the season (again, in ppr), he finished WR13? And would you guess that #14 was Dez Bryant and #15 was Calvin? This notion of feast or famine and boom or bust and, in general, he's not there yet is, in my opinion, misleading. What we saw last year was a 2nd year WR really start to come into his own with a 2nd year QB that should be great. It really surprises me that people are dismissing this so easily because normally when you have a big play WR that is entering his 3rd year with an ascending super star QB, people usually buy those players more than sell them. Just something to consider. §
  6. In my league, Luck finished #5 last year and TY was #18. That was with minimal competition for targets. Wayne missed half the season, Allen missed the whole season, and the next best WR on the roster was DHB. With Wayne/Allen/Nicks around, I don't see how TY could possibly see the same number of targets he did last year. The targets he does see would likely be more efficient this year, but I don't see him as being all that underrated. How do you see the targets being distributed? In my leagues (and FFPC), Luck finished QB7 and Hilton WR19 last year. Like last year, I don't see how Luck finishes as QB#5 without a WR in the top 20. Going into his third year, Hilton seems like a breakout candidate to not only lead the Colts WR group but also finish again in the top 20. I would argue that his situation last year was worse since he was in year 2 and defenses could key on him only for the most part. Also nobody is passing on Jordy Nelson or Alshon Jeffrey or even DeSean Jackson because their teams have a bunch of other weapons. Yet for some reason, people are passing on Hilton even though the Colts other weapons are not really that great by comparison. Lots of good points in these posts. A few thoughts: Everyone talks about how there will be too many mouths to feed but, like you say, there seems to never be a concern with mouths to feed in Atlanta, Denver, Green Bay, Chicago, Detroit, etc. A great deal of the focus is pointed at Wayne missing a lot of the season and the "lack of competition" for targets but if you look at last year's targets, when Wayne was healthy, he was very consistently receiving 8-9 targets a game (Wayne). Hilton DID have 2 games in that stretch where he had 4 and 5 targets, but in the remainder, he had 8, 9, 11, and 12. So, the targets were there. People may be overlooking that what really happened is we saw a 2nd year player begin to come into his own. There is also a lot of talk about Nicks and Rogers, etc. I think they both CAN be impactful and very good but the reality, for what it's worth and without trying to predict anything, is that Nicks has to show that he can remain both on the field and effective for more than a game here and a game there before we should assume he will eat off the same plate as the other WRS. Rogers has great talent but I trust there is a reason the Colts drafted Wrs this year and keep Whalen. There must be some level of concern/not sold yet. The biggest drawback to the WRs may be the return of Allen, in my opinion but he's not likely to get consistent targets that move the chains. In the Colts offense, that is clearly a designed role for WRs and is where Wayne has made a living for several years now. The one other thing I will say about the perception of targets is that it is reasonable to believe that a talent like Andrew Luck entering his third year will be a better player and might increase his passing this year. Reports like those that come from Rotoworld probably feed the perception. They mention things like Hilton was the 14th targeted WR last year and might be lucky to be the 20th targeted WR this year. The layman might read that and think that is terrible and feed the concerns we see on the boards but if you look at the target charts, you will see that the difference between the 14th targeted WR last year and the 20th was 5 targets. We can live with that, given Hilton's ability for the big play and certainly that can be more than offset if Luck progresses this year. Wouldn't it be reasonable to think that if Luck attempts 50 more throws this year that 5-10 of those might find their way to Hilton? §
  7. This team may just be playing coy but I find it hard to believe that any coaching staff, as a collective unit, would fail to recognize what they must do given all the passing weapons, a true franchise QB (maybe a generational top talent), and the struggles and lack of depth on the o-line and running game. This is a situation where jobs are on the line should they fail to take advantage because even a casual football observer can plainly see there are different coaching personnel that could be brought in to Indy with the talent they have that could ramp up this passing game. §
  8. Would it be more fair to say that Watkins will be the next Steve Smith in his prime? I would agree that we can't compare all players when they are closer comparisons physically but I can't get on board that Watkins is the next Andre Johnson. I see them as very different players. Steve Smith was a top fantasy receiver in his best years and Watkins reminds me more of him that anyone. The million dollar question may be is the team around him good enough to get the most of him? Elite talent doesn't always need that but you do need a competent QB and scheme to get a WR involved. §
  9. This is the right call. He didn't do anything to earn the job and the coach can always go TOWARDS him later but it would be very hard to start him, then put him on the bench, and then go back to the future (hello, McFly?). He likely sealed his fate when he flipped off the opponents. Even if completely justified, it was just the epitome of everything people are concerned with regarding him. Passion and enthusiasm is a close cousin to disrespect and disregard for authority and structure. The team needs a leader to which people can clearly see is the company man doing it the new coaches way. That is easy to see in Hoyer and almost impossible to recognize with Manziel. §
  10. At this rate, Gordon may play the entire season his entire career before they reach a decision. I have no dog in the fight. I am not a Browns fan nor have a stake in Gordon in fantasy but as a big fan of the NFL it is annoying. It is not fair to the Browns to be a couple of weeks out from the season and have no idea what the availability will or will not be for their best player. Every case turns on its own events and will be unique but what could possibly be so complicated that a failed test in a system that has been in place for multiple decades could not be resolved in less than five months while other players have judgment calls made against them and are slapped with suspensions of varying lengths based on how the league office feels that day?
  11. I'll believe it when I see it. As I said, few backs have been worse in short yardage and goal-to-go situations than LaGarrette Blount. Is there anything to back this up? I'm probably not going after either of these players this year so it's kind of a moot point personally, however I see this stated routinely despite the fact that he's had a very small sample size for 4 year vet. From that sample, I'd say he's been fairly average. People act like he's had a ton of opportunities and just been terrible, but in fact he's only had a few and, while he hasn't impressed, he hasn't really been awful, either. Further, you'd have to think goal line running would be easier to learn than pass protection so it's not unthinkable that he could've improved after a year of actual coaching. (three years under Raheem Morris and Greg Schiano might've done more harm than good) This post has all the numbers, and they're extremely grim. Not only is the sample size small given his total workload (why haven't coaches been giving him short-yardage carries before?), but the success rate has been absolutely dire. Le'Veon Bell ranks 85th out of 88 RBs in short-yardage conversion rate since entering the league, which ties with Thomas Jones and beats out only Darren McFadden and Javon Ringer. Only Ringer, McFadden, Thomas Jones, and Sammy Morris- out of a sample of 88 RBs since 2010!- average fewer yards per carry in short-yardage situations than LaGarrette Blount. That's interesting, because last year according to Football Outsiders Blount was tied for the second best success rate in the league, behind only Woodhead, for all players with at least 100 carries.They define success on a running play as follows: In general, a play counts as a "hit" if it gains 40% of yards on first down, 60% of yards on second down, and 100% of yards on third down. If the team is behind by more than a touchdown in the fourth quarter, the benchmarks switch to 50%/65%/100%. If the team is ahead by any amount in the fourth quarter, the benchmarks switch to 30%/50%/100%. link . What I find interesting in that read is that it fits the bill for what the website does (innovative statistics...created by THEM) but it appears to severely lack the eyeball test. Blount is tied with Donald Brown behind Danny Woodhead as the best in the business while guys like ADP is 32, Lacy and Forte are late 20's, and Frank Gore, who might be one of the best inside runners behind one of the best lines, is 38?? Color me skeptical. §
  12. Statistics aside, where are the forum guys who keep their ears low to the ground on all things Steelers and what's their take on usage/scenarios (Finkle, God's Brother, etc)?
  13. I don't agree. It appears trendy for people to be looking into crystal balls and predicting an inevitable injury for Foster (much like people did/have done for SJAX and Gore and a couple of others). But while we can go along with the popular thought, the one thing we know is fact that it sounds like a "silver bullet for a prophecy" because that (an injury to Foster) is the ONLY thing that will give Grimes anywhere near as remote value as CJ Anderson this season. That is what must happen because if Foster is healthy, he is an absolute workhorse for this team. People may be finding it very easy to throw the statement out there, especially since he hasn't played in the pre-season, but that occurs a lot with older KNOWN GREAT backs. ADP hardly ever plays. Gore seldom does. You never see Charles. You never saw LT. What is there to prove when you expect your RB to carry 75% of the RB load? It's a lose/lose scenario for a coach. Pre-season has its purpose for developing a team but it is pointless for known vets. The payoff for what they get out of it is nowhere near worth it compared to the fact that you could easily lose your star player when you have a lot of players out there who aren't as skilled at picking up blitzes, etc. A healthy Foster = a well-rested Grimes & co. but in Denver, Anderson could see more meaningful value, easily. Hillman is not a significant barrier and the Broncos should score as many points as anyone this year. In a "pick one" scenario, I'll choose Anderson. §
  14. I knew this thread would pop up. Should be interesting discussion. This is the first time in literally 5 years where he actually looked like what reminds us of what he was in 2009. The Rotoworld blurb says something about his ADP currently being "undrafted". That will change by the end of today, I imagine.
  15. I canceled this year after no good offers. The next day I got a "call us for a special offer" email. Then the day after I got an email that was their new customer offer - genie, ST free, movie channels, etcetera.Good info. Pays to be persistent as Shutout said. §