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About Louche

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  • Birthday 09/04/1979

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    Cincinnati Bengals

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  1. Without accounting for league format I prefer Sutton straight up over Engram. I own Everett everywhere and I'm intrigued by his "breakout" this year as well but he's a small part of this trade. He's a nice prospect but I'd say the value on that side of the trade is 90% Sutton, 10% Everett, 0% Walker. I don't think the Sanders trade to the 49ers impacts Sutton's value much. Sutton was already getting the targets and he was the main guy, it might even be harder for him to produce now with Sanders gone as defenses can focus more on shutting down Sutton and the offense might be very low volume and unproductive. But Sutton profiles perfectly as a potential elite dyno WR with a high TD upside. His development will depend a lot on who he has to play with though. If he was with the Saints he would be a monster. With Flacco and Vic Fangio and nobody to draw attention away from him he might never reach his ceiling. He should be a productive WR2 type anyways but top 5 WR might be difficult. Hopefully Elway can finally find a good QB at some point or get fired. However...your league doesn't use flex spots? You're only starting 1QB, 1RB, 2WR, 1TE on offense? If so that might drive up the price of top 5 TEs as the drop from an elite TE to a low level starter in an 18 team league will be quite steep. Finding two good WR options weekly should be an easier task. In this type of format I would think that WR is slightly devalued. Having an elite RB becomes crucial and having an elite TE will also offer a big advantage as those positions are way more shallow than WR. 18 teams is deep but 5 offensive starters plus a kicker is shallow (90 weekly starters) I typically play in 12-16 team leagues with 9-10 offensive starters (appx 130 weekly starters). As in any league with shallow roster requirements it becomes more about elite production and less about depth. Engram is a safer choice for elite production than Sutton/Everett so the offer seems fair to me given league format.
  2. He's got 14 pressures in 177 passing snaps over 6 games with zero sacks. Last year he had 48 in 447 with 7 sacks over 16 games. He's also been less effective against the run, creating fewer stops. His pressure per week has been 3-0-4-3-1-2. Normally he should have gotten a couple sacks in's a little fluky that he hasn't gotten to the QB in any of his 14 pressures, but he's not as productive as last year so it's not all variance. The top DEs have around 25-30 pressures by now - Donald, Calais, Lawrence, Heyward, Graham, Hughes, Flowers, Ingram, Jordan, Buckner etc. Donald has 36 pressures in five games(!!). Williams had plenty weeks last season where he made little impact in the passing game, but he had four weeks with 6, 7, 8 and 9 pressures. Weeks 1, 9, 12 and 14 where he got four of his seven sacks on the season. Let's see if he can find those spikes this season as well. As for why Williams is less effective I don't know...I haven't looked into it; if they're using him differently, if he's had tough matchups, or if he's just taken a step back. But he seems to be getting more double teams and he's apparently been struggling with his wrist the entire season which might be affecting his hand strength and/or his technique. Based on the numbers we should expect some positive regression, and sacks tend to come in bunches, but he needs a couple dominant weeks if he's to get 5+ sacks this season. And we might be looking at a 3 sack season which would be quite the disappointment, or even worse that he misses some games and hardly gets any sacks at all this year.
  3. I don't really see Vallejo as a starting MIKE. If he's ever going to become anything more than a special teamer and backup I would think it would be at WILL. Preston is on a cheap contract for next year and I don't see anyone currently on their roster that is much of a threat. Both Milano and Vallejo are special team depth LBs with some potential to grow into sub-package players and base WILL.
  4. Absolutely, but he's not going to end up with 32 sacks this year so I'm worried about those games where he'll might have 3-4 tackles and zero sacks. But we'll see how it develops. He rushed on 47% of passing snaps this week, 43% in week 1. A typical number for an ILB is 10-15%, or as high as 20-30% for off ball LBs that are considered as part time rushers (Jamie Collins rushed on 32% of plays last week), so 45% is for sure very, very high. Edit: btw, McKinney's rush percentage last season was 29%.
  5. And McKinney at 98.4% of snaps, up from 92.2% last week, but he's rushing A LOT. Great for big play leagues but not sure if that's a best case scenario in tackle heavy.
  6. Yeah, Cunningham played a lot this game after Cush went out, but JAX went with a lot of heavy formations in the 2nd half which forced HOU into base. If they go up against a team that's heavy on 3WR sets Cunningham would not see nearly enough snaps to be a comfortable start if we are basing our expectations on what they did in week 1. To me the most likely scenario is a split for the first 3-5 games, but at some point I expect Cunningham to get it and pull ahead.
  7. After Cushing went out they played Cunningham and McKinney in base and short yardage with Cole replacing Cunningham in nickel. On the last JAX series they pulled McKinney and played Cunningham/Cole in base. Cole was primarily a nickel WILL but with the way McKinney lines up on the line so much Cole looks more like a dime MIKE at times. According to PFF Cunningham played 4 snaps at edge and 24 snaps inside so I don't understand anything about this talk about him playing outside. I am surprised that Cunningham is playing base and short yardage, and not nickel, as I thought his coverage skills was his strength as an NFL prospect. But I guess he might not be comfortable enough in the system to play nickel yet...who knows.
  8. He's definitely not going to challenge Brown as Jenkins can't play MIKE. He's a depth option or challenger to Humber. Imo, if you can't make the Raiders roster when they're rolling out Cory James and Marquel Lee as starters then I think you'll struggle to put up much of a fight anywhere. It would surprise me if he ever becomes useable for IDP unless he stumbles into a role because of injuries.
  9. Keep. If you cut him now there's a pretty good chance you'll regret it within a few weeks. He played 100% of the snaps, but gameflow didn't flow his way. Denver is a pretty meh IDP venue in terms of it's stat crew and DEN is a poor opponent for DB scoring. If Addae doesn't bounce back within a couple weeks I'd be worried but it's typically a mistake to overreact on week one results as long as the usage/snaps is there.
  10. Louche

    Saints LBs

    Te'o is technically still a starter at base MIKE but in the early part of the last couple preseason games they've been in nickel on almost every down. Well, at least in the 2nd preseason game, I only watched the first drive or so of the 3rd game just to confirm that Anzalone was still starting. In the 2nd game they were in nickel the entire first quarter, but when they pinned down LAC in the early part of the 2nd quarter, with their starters still in, they went to a base formation with Te'o at MIKE, Klein at SAM and Anzalone at WILL. A little while later they went to their second rotation with Te'o and Robertson in nickel. Te'o will probably have some usable weeks if you can predict when they will be in base, or in case Klein gets injured, but the guys to own based on their usage the last couple weeks are clearly Klein and Anzalone. I wasn't sure if they were just taking a long look at Anzalone in the 2nd game, but when they continued rolling with him in the 3rd game it seems clear that they are going with him over Robertson. So to me this situation isn't that fluid any longer, they seem to have settled on their first and second rotation.
  11. Louche

    Lions LB's

    Whitehead will start out in a three down role but Reeves-Maybin has looked fantastic so far. I was viewing JRM as a possible WILL starter in 2018, especially since he missed so much of the offseason and was thought of as undersized, but now I think he'll put up a fight this season. Wouldn't surprise me if there is a switch here mid season.
  12. Last season Bosa would primarily play 5T in base and in sub he would play quite a bit of 3T but they would also line him out at 6-9T on some plays. Bosa himself has said this offseason that he will play less 3T than what he did last year, so it seems they are counting on Liuget to bounce back at 3T now that he returns to a scheme he's had success with in the past. Bosa's home should be 5T but they've said things that insinuate that he will line up wider on more plays in more of an attacking role. I'm not sure if this means that they will use him at LEO or if it means that they will play less 4-3 under and introduce some more wide formations. Attaochu told ESPN that he is moving to defensive end and he's studying Clemons' Seattle tape from 2010-2011: "I've been watching a lot of film and really studying film on Seattle and teams that Gus coached from 2011 and 2012 and seeing players with similar skill sets as me and seeing how they capitalized in the scheme," Attaochu said. To me the logical and best nickel lineup would be Ingram-Bosa-Liuget-Attaochu, but the thing that confuses me is that they've told Bosa that he will play less 3T. Maybe it just means that Bosa, Ingram and Attaochu will rotate at end and Bosa will also play a fair bit inside, but it could also mean that Ingram and Attaochu will rotate at LEO, Ingram will play some SAM in base, while Bosa will primarily play 5T. If that's the case it's not good for Ingram's position designation. Beasley was basically a pass-rushing specialist who only played LEO, but the few snaps he got in base was at SAM. However, it will be VERY interesting to see his snaps this preseason as De'Vondre Campbell is moving to SAM with Ishmael and Riley fighting it out for WILL. With Campbell at SAM there shouldn't be a need to play Beasley there which could make Beasley a base DE or more likely a pure sub-package player at defensive end. Which means he should get a DE designation...but MFL doesn't change positions after the season kicks off so we're dependent on them seeing enough in the preseason and training camp to make that call. And if Campbell gets dinged and comes out for a couple plays, causing Beasley to get 2 snaps at SAM in the third preseason game, that might be enough for Rotoworld to keep Beasley at LB for another year... Basically if Beasley is the backup SAM in base and their primary LEO in nickel, then he's an LB in Rotoworld's world even if 98% of his playing time is at defensive end. It's all about the base.
  13. I think there's like an 80-90% chance he sticks at DE, but you never know...
  14. It depends on how they line up in base. If they line up Bosa at LEO and Ingram at SAM in a 4-3 under base, Rotoworld will change Ingram back to LB even though he aligns on the line of scrimmage on 98% of plays. Technically he aligns like a 4-3 SAM, even if he is on the ball, so they designate him as an LB. It doesn't make any sense but that's their system. Personally I believe that they will line up Ingram at LEO and Bosa at 5T in base, but the guy who does depth charts for Rotoworld has stated that he is not yet sure what position Ingram will ultimately end up having for this season so we will not know until training camp.