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Everything posted by GregR

  1. Compensatory picks, we got the earliest 3rd (97th) and two 7ths.
  2. Can you check my weed too?
  3. Sad news. Even worse that his 13yo daughter was also in the helicopter
  4. 6th grade. Friday about to get on the buses end of the day, and a kid named Billy and I got egged on into a fight by everyone else. A couple of punches and then the buses were starting to close their doors and so we both had to run or else miss them. Monday called into principle's office. He and I are sitting there talking and joking when she comes out to get us. We go in and sit down. She looks at us expectantly and we stare back at her clueless. She asks if we had a fight on Friday. We both had completely forgot it over the weekend and get puzzled looks. Look at each other quizzically for a few seconds and then remember it. "Oh yeah, by the buses!" "Oh yeah, it was dumb, shouldn't have happened." Principle just kind of looked back and forth from one of us to the other with a dumbfounded look. "Ok then. Go back to class."
  5. Astros fan. Agree with not sure how to feel going forward. Decades ago baseball dropped back into that level of sport that it pretty much took a playoff run to make it worth paying a lot of attention to. But I loved what the championship did for the city. There were some rough times back then with severe oil price drops heavily impacting one of our main industries here. And it had been 20 years since our last major sports championship, so for a lot of people it was the first one they'd seen. Sucks that the Astros did this to take that luster from the memories. I'll still cheer for them as it's the city's team, but they need to do it right going forward, and not just for the threat of punishment.
  6. Yeah, so much on that game. The kickoff... all year they've been intentionally dropping the ball just before the goal line to force a return as they've done a very good job on kickoff returns, 2nd best in the league at below 19 yards per return. But, pro bowl returner, that's the game you kick it in the end zone.
  7. Really not a good idea. How to Hack Excel Password in Minutes
  8. Password Safe is a free, open source tool that my IT security folks at work recommend.
  9. Great topic. Let me pose it a different way. Our practical goal is to extend the drive with more first downs until eventually score. So one way to look at it would be, what are the odds of extending the drive with different down and distance. Using some dated data that looked at this specifically, but going with it for sake of argument. From 2002 to 2006, 66% of the time, the downs starting with a 1st and 10 ultimately resulted in another first down or a TD. So we could ask, how many yards to go on 2nd down gives us greater than that 66% chance of gaining a 1st down or TD? The answer from the same data set was 5.5 yards. So all other things being equal, 2nd and 5 is more likely to see your drive extended another set of downs than a 1st and 10 is. But 2nd and 6 is less likely. (For 3rd down, 1.5 yards was the 66% success rate break even point.) Though we have to look at what we end up with. Let's say we only get 1 yard on 2nd down. Now we're 1st and 10 at the same yardline as our other choice and we still face those same odds of extending the drive. But it's also true we might pick up more than 1 yard in which case our 1st and 10 occurs further up the field and is preferable if achieved. One can argue 2nd and 1 (or inches)is the best possible situation (other than 1st and short) for a number of reasons. The difference between 1st and 10 and 2nd and 10 is a lot worse than the difference between 2nd and 1 and 3rd and 1. Which means 2nd and 1 is a great chance to take a shot downfield, where the QB can be told to play it safe and throw it away if it isn't there. The defense is in a tough spot having to defend against the short gain, which may increase the chances of a favorable matchup. And if they don't stack the line enough the play can be changed to an even higher chance of picking up the 1st with a run. That is all subjective though. My gut on that is I'd rather have the 2nd down. Others have mentioned, the best way to look at it is probably expected points. Looks at the situation like this one suggest that gaining 9 yards on first down ultimately results in more expected points on average than gaining 10 yards on first down. Incidentally this is a different look by the same author that I got the 1st and 10 equates to 2nd and 5.5 based on success rate from. It's interesting to see the expected points for a 10 yard gain on first down on that graph are about equal to a gain on 1st down that leaves you with 2nd and 5 which further supports that part.
  10. Just wanted to pop over and congratulate you Bills fans on the course of the team. Was a hard fought playoff game you guys played well enough to win. Haven't been able to go watch the broadcast yet and digest, but felt like your defense was really strong and the play calling especially. Did a lot that is how I think teams should attack Houston's offense.
  11. Yes, I liked going for it but didn't like the play call. O'Brien mentioned it in his post game that it probably wasn't a good choice, so... maybe he's learning from it. Hopefully.
  12. Dan Snyder was apparently talking seriously with Rick Smith about becoming the Redskins GM, but decided to hire Rivera as coach and let him have input into the GM decision. Smith's wife died of cancer last January.
  13. So, Ka'imi went from looking like he might be liability after the first few games, to being a strength. Pretty solid for the rest of the year, and was excellent at dropping kickoffs on the 1. We had the second best opponent kickoff return average, limiting opponents to 18.6 years per return.
  14. Texans led the league in fewest punt return yards allowed and were ranked 4th overall in special teams by PFF. Special teams was a difference maker down the stretch. Bills are one of the few teams the Texans were kicking touchbacks with. Often they try to drop it on on the 1 to force a return, and usually opponents weren't making the 25 on them. Says something for Buffalo's returners there I think.
  15. Talk about giving me a heart attack. With Deshaun we're never really out of a game.
  16. Worried about Kenny Stills, looked like he pulled up like a hamstring on that 3rd down throw away.
  17. It was a win that felt good. Could easily have gone either direction. There were like 28 points up for grabs on end zone interceptions (2 potential TDs for Deshaun and a 14 point swing on the hit by Reid and long return). Liked to see how the line played overall. Running game was good enough to make a difference in the game. Just need to take care of business in Tampa Bay now and clinch the division. Though if they do, there could still be 3rd vs 4th seed up for grabs in week 17. Should the Chiefs drop a game, we hold head to head over them so could move up. I think the Bills/Pats are the obvious 5 seed you don't want to have to face no matter which of them it ends up being, so 3 seed would be best.
  18. That is definitely something that happens. Watching the games live we often are talking about where the safeties are going before the play. They double up Fuller before they'll double up Hopkins a lot of the time.