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ORC

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  1. Luck's 2014 is what people assumed would be a baseline going forward. 600+ attempts, 4500 yards, and 40 TDs. That's not all that far off from his 16 game pace this year. In 2014, the breakdown of catches by position was: RB: 94 TE: 98 WR: 217 Fleener and Allen are both free agents. Bradshaw and Gore are older. Reggie Wayne is gone. Andre Johnson could easily be gone. You have to think that the WRs are going to get a much bigger share of the targets than in past years. In the 7 games Luck has played this year, Moncrief has 32 catches, 54 targets, 351 yards, 5 TDs. That's a 16 game pace of 73 catches, 123 targets, 802 yards, 11 TDs. I don't think it's at all unreasonable to think next year Moncrief puts up 70+ catches, approaches 1,000 yards, and gets 8-10 TDs, which is a top 20 WR in PPR. Moncrief just turned 22 in August. That's super, super young. It's younger than Dorsett, Kevin White, DeVante Parker, and Agholor. Great opportunity to buy right now.
  2. Holding for now. Seems like he should have a strong finish in PPR, as he's a good pass catching back. Likely to be playing from behind + Trestman has no problem throwing to the RB + Foster did well in the passing game with Schaub. Even if he's terrible running the ball, he should catch a bunch of passes. Thinking can spin that with the "Forsett will be 31" narrative to get a bigger return in the offseason.
  3. Kyle Shanahan has never had a QB as good as Matt Ryan. He's never had as good a top 2 as Julio and Roddy. And Matt Ryan has thrown the ball an average of 630 times over the past three seasons. Even more in the last two, because the defense hasn't been able to stop anyone. He's a pretty good bet to get to at least 600 attempts this year, even with Shanahan in the fold. Let's say Shanahan is in Matt Ryan's earpiece screaming "FEED JULIO". Maybe he gets 180 targets. That still leaves 420 passes to go around. It's not all that unreasonable to think Roddy gets 120 of them and ends up with a similar stat line to last year, albeit over 16 games. If you think he gets hurt again and misses time, downgrade accordingly. But it seems barring injury, Roddy has a pretty decent floor. Nobody is trotting him out there as a top WR, but as a complementary piece, you can certainly do worse.
  4. A third round pick. Anderson has been the third back in the offense all season and hasn't proven anything yet. He has a chance and that is why he is worth a third round pick, but I wouldn't give away a second round pick. Anybody that's been holding in dynasty finally saw a glimpse of what they hoped for. You don't stash guys like CJ with the hopes of dealing them for a 3rd round pick. Nobody that held is giving him up for less than a 2nd at this moment. ETA: CJ Anderson is the 5th RB in Denver Broncos history to have a game with 70+ rushing yards and 70+ receiving yards. Guys that have proven far less go for far more.
  5. The Eagles are 13-4 in Foles' last 17 starts. The injury may be a blessing in disguise. He has time to reflect on why his mentality regarding not committing turnovers changed. You can't just let a guy who wins that much go.
  6. He did as much as any RB possibly could have with those carries. Ran hard, ran after contact, made something when there was nothing. Great agility to get in on the first TD. Great vision on the 2nd. It was an impressive performance.
  7. Ingram is light years ahead of Ray Rice and Mathews. Peterson is another story. He will fetch a huge one or two year contract. I think there is only one way that Ingram stays in New Orleans. He is gonna need a committment from Payton to feed him the ball. I'm pretty sure that Ingram doesn't want to spend another 3-4 years getting the ball 12 times a game in a crazy RBBC on a pass happy team. Now Ingram has had his breakout game and has all the leverage with New Orleans. I personally think New Orleans is the best place for him, if he got the ball a lot. I thought it was a great landing spot originally (look at the first post in this thread). But Payton has done a poor job of getting the ball to Ingram for 3.5 years. It's not as if he wised up either, it took 2 injuries for this to happen. How do you figure? Ingram may be playing lights out for about a half dozen games, but for a career his best season was 600+ yards. Every season of Mathews career he has had more yards than Ingram's best season and has two 1K yards seasons under his belt. Only Rice's rookie year did he have less than 600 yards and has four 1K seasons. I realize that Rice and Mathews are not playing right now, but that doesn't mean Ingram is light years better than those two. Those two have much better track records than Ingram at this point. Ingram is 3 years younger than Rice. Rice averaged 3.1 YPC in 2013 and Ingram is averaging 5.7 YPC in 2014. He has 1,000 fewer career carries and doesn't come with the obvious off the field issues. I think 32 of 32 teams would rather have Ingram. Mathews is an interesting case as a solid, yet unspectacular back. Also 2 years older than Ingram. Not like Ingram hasn't had injuries, but Mathews has been injured every year as a pro, including a current knee injury. He'll be almost 28 before the start of the 2015 season and probably be looking for more money than Ingram. If I'm a team in the market for a RB, it's gotta be Ingram > Mathews >>>>> Rice.
  8. San Diego would probably be a great spot if they believe he's a #1 guy and they don't bring back Mathews. The past two years they've been in the Top 10 in rushing attempts and near the bottom in yards per carry. Seems like that would be the ideal opportunity. Somewhere like Buffalo or Baltimore might also not be terrible. balt had fairly serious cap issues when tehy gave flacco that big deal, and I don't know if they'll have that stuff cleared up enough by next year to warrant spending $$ on a rb when they have a 2nd year guy they drafted on the roster. buffalo seems to like brown enough to invest that pick in him, and they've got fjax for another year, so a third guy for $$ seems kind of sketchy. Re: Bills contracts. Fred Jackson's $2.35 million salary is only guaranteed if he makes 2015 final cuts. Buffalo only owes him $100k if they release him or he retires before the season. He'll be 34 in February. Spiller has a $2.1 million player option that he'd likely void trying to get a larger contract on the open market (possibly with Buffalo). He'll be 28 next August. Buffalo gave up a 4th round pick for Bryce Brown He's only owed $660k in 2015 and is a free agent in 2016. They signed Anthony Dixon to a 3 year deal, but only $750k is guaranteed, but they can get out of that contract easily if they need to. The rest of the season should be interesting. They'll probably want to see what they have in Brown, but it's certainly not inconceivable to think they'll be in the RB market in 2015.
  9. San Diego would probably be a great spot if they believe he's a #1 guy and they don't bring back Mathews. The past two years they've been in the Top 10 in rushing attempts and near the bottom in yards per carry. Seems like that would be the ideal opportunity. Somewhere like Buffalo or Baltimore might also not be terrible.
  10. I guess I shouldn't say never. I didn't mean it literally. He's averaging 16 touches a game, and 20 is his high. How many touches did Thomas and Williams get? The answer is 13, plus Tannehill has 6 rushing attempts. So Miller's workload is consistent with or without Moreno: 15-20 touches a game. The Dolphins know that's his limit. When these stout run defenses start bottling him up, Miami will have to pass more, and their possession time will fall. I challenge you Miller owners to put out some feelers after Week 8 and see what his value is. Then come back here and share with us what others are willing to pay for him. In other words, what will the market bear? Sometimes when we own a player, it's harder to be objective. Nonsense. Everyone acts like trades are simply things that you alone decide to do.There is no selling high on a player like Miller who lacks any brand name. I own Miller and Lacy, and if I felt like I needed WR or other depth help, I'd offer Lacy first for the brand name. Miller has been steady but hasn't had a signature game that has made people take notice. And for the discerning owner, Miller "hasn't done it for a year" to prove that he is a good bye either. Try and trade him if you can but the idea of "selling high" is hilarious. All I said was offer him up and see what his value is. Lots of people here calling him a sure-fire RB1. But you're right: what does the market say he's worth? I just hate the industry term of "sell high" on a guy. The way the phrase is used implies a drop off of production.Is Everything we do in this game is about speculation and trying to predict the future. I have gone on record as predicting his production will drop off. Other's have gone on record to say he is a Top-10 RB RoS. What about his production says "unsustainable"? Which is more sustainable ROS, Miller's production or Demarco Murray's? Miller was never drafted as a RB1 so most folks are playing with House money right now. On pace for about 1,400 total yards, 45+ catches, 11 TDs. He's only 23.5 years old. He's in the Top 10 in RB points in PPR right now. Only guys with more points and younger are Gio and Bell. If you don't believe it's sustainable, sell him. But Gio is on pace for virtually identical numbers and Miller is only 6 months older than him. You don't see people selling Gio because Jeremy Hill is there.
  11. Trying not to cherry pick numbers here: Last 8 games: 102 carries, 580 yards, 5.69 YPC, 5 TDs Last 16 games: 155 carries, 852 yards, 5.50 YPC, 6 TDs Last 16 games with 10+ carries: 225 carries, 1,169 yards, 5.20 YPC, 9 TDs. Doesn't turn 25 until December and the Saints didn't pick up his 5th year option for next year at $5 million, so he is an unrestricted free agent. The franchise number for an RB in 2014 was $9.5 million. He's almost a full year younger than Andre Ellington. How many guys would you rather have in dynasty right now?
  12. It obviously seems like a lost cause this year given what the Vikings are trying to do with him. Totally out of left field, but maybe he's best served in a Darren Sproles type role. To me, there's a difference between being a "terrible player" and a "terrible route runner". Patterson led the league in yards per kick return last year. He's 5th in the NFL in that category this year. Even with the struggles this year, you'd be hard pressed to find someone who wouldn't agree that he's electric with the ball in his hands. Sproles averaged about 3-4 carries per game and at his peak with the Saints, around 7 targets per game while operating out of the slot and the backfield. Sproles was always a guy who just had to have the ball in his hands to reach his potential. The Saints were willing to do what it took. An approach / position shift like that would also allow him to be productive while refining his route running. But it is Norv after all.
  13. Getting a little more specific than the last post, in the past 20 years, there have been 11 rookie receivers (including Hunter) to have the following criteria: - Drafted in first 2 rounds - 6'3 or taller - More than 300 receiving yards - Greater than 15 yards per catch They are: Hunter, Randy Moss, Germane Crowell, Julio Jones, Kenny Britt, AJ Green, Braylon Edwards, Calvin Johnson, Michael Westbrook, Alshon Jeffery, and Roy Williams. To me, there are two distinct groups here: Moss, Julio, AJ, Calvin, Alshon in 1 group. Crowell, Britt, Braylon, Westbrook, Roy Williams in the other. Kenny Britt is the only guy on this list to not have a 1,000 yard season. The second group certainly doesn't fall under the "complete bust" category, but Britt, Braylon Edwards and Roy Williams are certainly the type of guys the coaches are hoping he doesn't mimic. They want to motivate him to put in the work like the first group.
  14. I just think some expect him to become Moss or Green. I disagree with that, but I think he can become solid as I stated earlier. My opinion of him is that he either becomes one of those guys or is a bust. He's too big and too fast to simply be a solid #2 type of guy. I'm a little surprised there's been no mention of Dez Bryant. The Cowboys imposed specific "Dez rules" just to make sure that he stayed focused. I just don't think you slap a "JAG" label on the back of a guy's jersey if you don't think he can truly be great. Think about how ridiculous it would be to see it on some other average players. A lot of people, including the coaches, see the potential to be a Moss/Green type player, and it's their job to get him to that level. The Cowboys did the exact same thing with Dez. Dez had 63 catches his 2nd year. Hunter said his goal is 60, which is definitely reasonable. Halfway through 2012, Dez still looked like the same guy with potential, but the second half of 2012 he finally reached that potential. It's not a stretch to think Hunter can do the same in 2015. But I agree that he either becomes that guy or flames out.
  15. I'm in this boat. Forgetting about the character concerns for a minute and just evaluating his play on the field, I personally don't think he stands out among the best in this class. I want to see Charles Johnson, Jeff Janis, Da'Rick Rogers, and shockingly Terrance West type domination (I know Johnson and Janis are D2 guys). If you think Crowell is being held back by situation or coaches for motivational purposes, and he really is the most "talented" back in this class, then you must believe that without character concerns he would've been one of the Top 5 RBs off the board in the draft. To me, someone like Jeremy Hill looked far better against the SEC than Crowell did in the SWAC. I'd definitely be among the more surprised if he turns out to be anything decent. If you believe Terrance West dominated, then you must believe in boxscore scouting. West looked pretty average on tape and no better than Lorenzo Taliaferro. I'm not really sure how there was less buzz with him. Though, I do like both and have them on a few teams.To me, West looked significantly better than the other players on the field at that level. Crowell did not, and surely we disagree there. West isn't going to beat anybody in a footrace to the end zone like Crowell can, despite combine 40 times. I just thought that West displayed far better vision, cuts, and knowledge of how to get extra yards than Crowell did. It's an interesting case, as I do believe that Crowell ultimately has the most upside of the two given his size and speed, but I think West just looks like he understands how to run and be successful in the NFL while Crowell does not.