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az_prof

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About az_prof

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  1. I nominate the Raptors. First, the Raptor is one of the US military's most advanced fighter jets and second raptors were one of the fastest and most aggressive dinosaurs.
  2. I think your projection, which comes to 230 fantasy points, is pretty reasonable. I do see it more as a floor than a ceiling. It is true that Lamb may cut into his targets but they are also losing a ton of targets with the departure of Witten (84 targets) and Cobb(83). I don't see Jarwin getting as many targets as Witten. And if Lamb is as good as people think, it may relieve some of the double teams on Amari and help him be more efficient. I've also heard that Dallas may use Amari more in the slot in 2020 and that he has had the most success there, but that's yet to be seen. Final factor that could help 2020 Amari is that 2019 he played hurt most of the season--first it was plantar fasciatis and then a quad strain and then a knee. He played through the injuries but it seems clear that his play was affected. So I see 75/1100/8 as his floor, which isn't bad by any means (WR17) but I would see him doing more like 85/1250/8 (WR7).
  3. That seems like a reasonable projection. In my 1 pt ppr league that would equate to 212 fantasy points and in 2019 would place him at RB18, between Kenyon Drake and James White. Would anybody be upset getting that from a 3rd round pick? Well, basically that production equals an average RB2. Drafting him in the third you are probably taking him as your RB2. So, he doesn't hurt you but he doesn't help you. But here is the downside to taking him there. 1) There is not much upside; in other words, unless Houston completely shelves Duke it is hard to see him doing much better than this. So RB18 is near his ceiling. 2) There is a real chance of the downside happening; he gets hurt again or Duke plays well enough to get a larger split or his body really has degraded to the point that he isn't a very good runner anymore. On the positive side, you can back him up with Duke pretty cheaply--maybe in the 11th or 12th rounds. Bottom line: getting him in the third is not good value but if you can get him in the fourth I would be all over that.
  4. This is pretty compelling. "Understand that four straight 100-yard games is a fairly rare feat. Only three players did it last year — Higbee, Michael Thomas (five games) and Cooper Kupp. And only four tight ends have pulled it off since the merger — Tony Gonzalez, Jimmy Graham (twice), Travis Kelce and Higbee. Look at the full list of 4/100 guys post-merger; almost everyone is at least Hall of Very Good, and there are plenty of Hall of Famers on the list."
  5. There are 18 players in the last 25 years who have performed as well or better in their first five years. at least 5000 years receiving 350 receptions 30 receiving TDs Torry Holt Randy Moss Julio JOnes AJ Green Mike Evans Larry Fitzgerald Calvin JOhnson DeAndre Hopkins TY Hilton Chad Johnson Marvin Harrison Michael Thomas Odell Beckham Dez Bryant Demarius Thomas Brandon Cooks Marques Colston Amari Cooper Almost every player has had many years of top fantasy production. I think people who are selling him short are missing the boat. http://pfref.com/tiny/PxZia
  6. Someone should sign Kaepernick. He is certainly better than 50% of the second string QBs in the league and probably a few of the starters.
  7. This list is way off. There are actually 16 players who did it. Based on this data, i would say that is probably a 50% chance at least one RB in this rookie class gets at least 50 receptions in 2020. Now that being said, CEH is probably the most likely but I would maintain that it would not be that surprising if it were Gibson. Games Receiving Rk Player Year Age Draft Tm Lg G GS Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Y/G Ctch% Y/Tgt 1 Saquon Barkley 2018 21 1-2 NYG NFL 16 16 121 91 721 7.92 4 45.1 75.2% 5.96 2 Reggie Bush 2006 21 1-2 NOR NFL 16 8 121 88 742 8.43 2 46.4 72.7% 6.13 3 Alvin Kamara 2017 22 3-67 NOR NFL 16 3 100 81 826 10.20 5 51.6 81.0% 8.26 4 Christian McCaffrey 2017 21 1-8 CAR NFL 16 10 113 80 651 8.14 5 40.7 70.8% 5.76 5 Matt Forte 2008 23 2-44 CHI NFL 16 16 76 63 477 7.57 4 29.8 82.9% 6.28 6 Nyheim Hines 2018 22 4-104 IND NFL 16 4 81 63 425 6.75 2 26.6 77.8% 5.25 7 Edgerrin James* 1999 21 1-4 IND NFL 16 16 82 62 586 9.45 4 36.6 75.6% 7.15 8 Duke Johnson 2015 22 3-77 CLE NFL 16 7 74 61 534 8.75 2 33.4 82.4% 7.22 9 LaDainian Tomlinson* 2001 22 1-5 SDG NFL 16 16 74 59 367 6.22 0 22.9 79.7% 4.96 10 Jahvid Best 2010 21 1-30 DET NFL 16 9 80 58 487 8.40 2 30.4 72.5% 6.09 11 Giovani Bernard 2013 22 2-37 CIN NFL 16 0 71 56 514 9.18 3 32.1 78.9% 7.24 12 Tarik Cohen 2017 22 4-119 CHI NFL 16 4 71 53 353 6.66 1 22.1 74.6% 4.97 13 Kareem Hunt 2017 22 3-86 KAN NFL 16 16 63 53 455 8.58 3 28.4 84.1% 7.22 14 Trent Richardson 2012 22 1-3 CLE NFL 15 15 70 51 367 7.20 1 24.5 72.9% 5.24 15 Miles Sanders 2019 22 2-53 PHI NFL 16 11 63 50 509 10.18 3 31.8 79.4% 8.08 16 Steve Slaton 2008 22 3-89 HOU NFL 16 15 59 50 377 7.54 1 23.6 84.7% 6.39
  8. Ok but are Tarik Cohen and Duke Johnson more talented than Gibson? I don't think so. That being said, the 70 receptions would be high end ceiling production is not likely--but it certainly is possible.
  9. Part of why his draft stock may be rising is the growing awareness of how open the WA backfield situation is. Yes, they have tons of talented guys but the best are either quite old or have major injury questions. So if Gibson is the guy some think he is, he could potentially grab that job and also catch a ton of passes. I put the odds of that around 10% but the high celing is what is driving his value right now.
  10. I would love to have Hollywood and I expect he will make the leap to be a WR1, if he stays healthy. The ability to stay healthy and on the field a full season is my only concern, but that is a real concern so you have to adjust your ranking of him accordingly.
  11. I think we will see other receivers--Hollywood, Dobbins, Boykin, and maybe Duvernay, cutting into Andrews' targets as teams scheme to stop Andrews. The TD regression is almost certain. He is a solid fantasy TE and I would love to have him in dynasty, but I would guess he is more likely to stay in the TE 4-6 range rather than jump to the TE1 or TE2 range.
  12. 2.02! It looks like Bowden is trending up based on other drafts as well but that seems crazy optimistic.
  13. 3.1 for Bowden is the highest I have seen.
  14. You won your league and still ended up with two first round picks including the 1!? You need to be giving us advice! Well done.
  15. Obviously there is a threat from Everett but on the other hand there are signs pointing in Higbee's direction. 1) Rams signed him to a 31 Million four year deal in September of 2019; Everett is playing on the last year of his rookie contract and hasn't been extended. 2) Higbee took advantage of his opportunity when Everett went down and had more receiving yards than any receiver in the NFL during those five weeks. That being said, with Brandon Cooks out of town I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of two TE sets in 2020 and both Higbee and Everett will be fantasy worthy. From a dynasty perspective, I like the fact that Higbee has contract stability in an offense that passes a lot and uses the TE.