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Everything posted by az_prof

  1. Here is what I see in terms of commonalities between those successful small backs in last five years. 1. Forty times above 50th percentile and generally 80th percentile or higher. The one glaring exception was Theo Riddick. 2. Agility scores could compensate for lower forty time or amplify a good time. 3. The strongest correlation was College Dominator percentage, however, McCaffrey was 98th percentile; Ekeler 96th percentile; Cohen 91st percentile; Lindsay 87th percentile; Riddick only 37th percentile; Lewis 79th percentile. James White is an outlier here at only 13.2% but he compensates by having a high target percentage in the 86th percentile. 4. In most cases two or more years of high end production in college--at least 1500 yards combined rushing/receiving. McCaffrey had 2 season; Ekeler 3; Cohen 3; Lindsay 2; Riddick 0; Lewis 2. White is also an outlier here with only 1 season above 500 combined yards. In retrospect this is probably because Wisconsin doesn't use backs that much in the passing game and this turns out to be one of White's strengths. Riddick is a complete outlier and there was no way to predict his success, which it turns out is probably not going to be a long lasting thing. The small backs who were consistently succesful in NFL fantasy production generally displayed above average 40 times and/or agility, almost universally had an exceptional college dominator score, and had at least two years of high end college production (above 1500 combined yards). Darrynton Evans has the forty time as noted by another poster--4.41 is 96th percentile. He didn't take the agility test so we don't have that data point. His dominator score of 31.5 and 72nd percentile is within the range we are seeing although lower than all but Riddick. Not a deal breaker but not as positive as most of these successful small backs. His production includes one year out of 3 of exceptional production which is less than any of these guys except Riddick. Based on this Evans could have one or two successful fantasy NFL seasons, but it doesn't seem likely to me. If you are drafting him in the mid to late 3rd round that seems right but I wouldn't reach for him.
  2. So I was curious about the small running back success rate and did a search of every season by RBs 205 pounds or less over the last five seasons and sorted by PPR fantasy points. I chose PPR because presumably this is the format small backs are most likely to have success and I chose fantasy points because that's what we really care about and this way receiving and rushing points are included altogether. I found 206 discrete seasons by RBs 205 or less in the past five years. Out of 206 seasons, 25 seasons produced 160 fantasy points or more. Among these successful seasons, seven RBs had more than one season above 160 fantasy points in the past five seasons: McCaffrey 3, Ekeler 2, James White 3, Tarik Cohen 2, Philip Lindsay 2, Theo Riddick 2, Dion Lewis 2. I would suggest that if there is a secret sauce to success for small backs in the modern NFL we should look at these backs and look for commonalities in terms of skills and situations. Not sure what that might be and don't have time to delve into this farther atm. Overall, 25 successful season out of 206 seasons is not a high success rate but how does it compare to RBs 206 and heavier? So it turns out there are many more successful seasons for players 206 and heavier: 103. But there are many more seasons played by such players: 607. Obviously there are more RBs above 206 so the dataset is larger. But the success rate is higher for larger backs: 17% vs 12%. Conclusion: There is a statistical correlation between backs above 206 and fantasy success, even in PPR. There are a select few small backs who do find success and the ones that have can do so for more than one season--ie., they can provide consistent fantasy production. All things equal, drafting a back above 206 is more likely to succeed but don't ignore the small guys as a rule. I would like to hear more about what separates the small backs who have found consistent and recent success.
  3. I'm guessing this story about using him as a running QB is just an indication that are going to be creative getting him on the field and getting him touches. Long term it isn't good as gadget players like Taysom Hill are typically better in reality than in fantasy where they are inconsistent. I don't expect to start Bowden this year but if he shows enough talent with the touches he gets he has a chance to be the receiving back in 2021 and be valuable. I think we will know pretty quickly if his skills translate to the NFL or not. If so, hold; if not, drop and pick up some other prospect.
  4. I'm a Henry owner and I passed on Evans at 2.12 in favor of Antonio Gibson and I don't feel an ounce of regret. If Evans had fallen to 3.12 I would have taken him but he didn't. I will wait until Evans owner has to make a roster cut for a bye week filler or gets tired of waiting. You don't win or lose leagues by giving up too much for a player like Evans who is a handcuff.
  5. Didn't Cowboys sign Cooper to a long term extension AFTER Lamb was drafted? This makes no sense. If the Cowboys really thought this they would not have extended Cooper to a five year, 100 Million dollar contract, with 60 million in guarantees.
  6. I agree. Henry signing shows Cook and the Vikings about what Cook is worth and hopefully spurs a deal coming together soon. Cook is more versatile but more injury prone. Comparable value.
  7. This was a fair deal to both Titans and Henry and solidies Henry's dynasty value. Titans lock up a key player around whom the offense is built but they can get rid of him in two years if he doesn't perform. Henry gets security of knowing he will make at least 25 M over next two years and more if he stays productive and healthy plus he gets to enjoy the continuity of being on a team that knows how to use him well. Dynasty owners now know that as long as Henry is healthy his high usage will continue.
  8. I nominate the Raptors. First, the Raptor is one of the US military's most advanced fighter jets and second raptors were one of the fastest and most aggressive dinosaurs.
  9. I think your projection, which comes to 230 fantasy points, is pretty reasonable. I do see it more as a floor than a ceiling. It is true that Lamb may cut into his targets but they are also losing a ton of targets with the departure of Witten (84 targets) and Cobb(83). I don't see Jarwin getting as many targets as Witten. And if Lamb is as good as people think, it may relieve some of the double teams on Amari and help him be more efficient. I've also heard that Dallas may use Amari more in the slot in 2020 and that he has had the most success there, but that's yet to be seen. Final factor that could help 2020 Amari is that 2019 he played hurt most of the season--first it was plantar fasciatis and then a quad strain and then a knee. He played through the injuries but it seems clear that his play was affected. So I see 75/1100/8 as his floor, which isn't bad by any means (WR17) but I would see him doing more like 85/1250/8 (WR7).
  10. That seems like a reasonable projection. In my 1 pt ppr league that would equate to 212 fantasy points and in 2019 would place him at RB18, between Kenyon Drake and James White. Would anybody be upset getting that from a 3rd round pick? Well, basically that production equals an average RB2. Drafting him in the third you are probably taking him as your RB2. So, he doesn't hurt you but he doesn't help you. But here is the downside to taking him there. 1) There is not much upside; in other words, unless Houston completely shelves Duke it is hard to see him doing much better than this. So RB18 is near his ceiling. 2) There is a real chance of the downside happening; he gets hurt again or Duke plays well enough to get a larger split or his body really has degraded to the point that he isn't a very good runner anymore. On the positive side, you can back him up with Duke pretty cheaply--maybe in the 11th or 12th rounds. Bottom line: getting him in the third is not good value but if you can get him in the fourth I would be all over that.
  11. This is pretty compelling. "Understand that four straight 100-yard games is a fairly rare feat. Only three players did it last year — Higbee, Michael Thomas (five games) and Cooper Kupp. And only four tight ends have pulled it off since the merger — Tony Gonzalez, Jimmy Graham (twice), Travis Kelce and Higbee. Look at the full list of 4/100 guys post-merger; almost everyone is at least Hall of Very Good, and there are plenty of Hall of Famers on the list."
  12. There are 18 players in the last 25 years who have performed as well or better in their first five years. at least 5000 years receiving 350 receptions 30 receiving TDs Torry Holt Randy Moss Julio JOnes AJ Green Mike Evans Larry Fitzgerald Calvin JOhnson DeAndre Hopkins TY Hilton Chad Johnson Marvin Harrison Michael Thomas Odell Beckham Dez Bryant Demarius Thomas Brandon Cooks Marques Colston Amari Cooper Almost every player has had many years of top fantasy production. I think people who are selling him short are missing the boat.
  13. Someone should sign Kaepernick. He is certainly better than 50% of the second string QBs in the league and probably a few of the starters.
  14. This list is way off. There are actually 16 players who did it. Based on this data, i would say that is probably a 50% chance at least one RB in this rookie class gets at least 50 receptions in 2020. Now that being said, CEH is probably the most likely but I would maintain that it would not be that surprising if it were Gibson. Games Receiving Rk Player Year Age Draft Tm Lg G GS Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Y/G Ctch% Y/Tgt 1 Saquon Barkley 2018 21 1-2 NYG NFL 16 16 121 91 721 7.92 4 45.1 75.2% 5.96 2 Reggie Bush 2006 21 1-2 NOR NFL 16 8 121 88 742 8.43 2 46.4 72.7% 6.13 3 Alvin Kamara 2017 22 3-67 NOR NFL 16 3 100 81 826 10.20 5 51.6 81.0% 8.26 4 Christian McCaffrey 2017 21 1-8 CAR NFL 16 10 113 80 651 8.14 5 40.7 70.8% 5.76 5 Matt Forte 2008 23 2-44 CHI NFL 16 16 76 63 477 7.57 4 29.8 82.9% 6.28 6 Nyheim Hines 2018 22 4-104 IND NFL 16 4 81 63 425 6.75 2 26.6 77.8% 5.25 7 Edgerrin James* 1999 21 1-4 IND NFL 16 16 82 62 586 9.45 4 36.6 75.6% 7.15 8 Duke Johnson 2015 22 3-77 CLE NFL 16 7 74 61 534 8.75 2 33.4 82.4% 7.22 9 LaDainian Tomlinson* 2001 22 1-5 SDG NFL 16 16 74 59 367 6.22 0 22.9 79.7% 4.96 10 Jahvid Best 2010 21 1-30 DET NFL 16 9 80 58 487 8.40 2 30.4 72.5% 6.09 11 Giovani Bernard 2013 22 2-37 CIN NFL 16 0 71 56 514 9.18 3 32.1 78.9% 7.24 12 Tarik Cohen 2017 22 4-119 CHI NFL 16 4 71 53 353 6.66 1 22.1 74.6% 4.97 13 Kareem Hunt 2017 22 3-86 KAN NFL 16 16 63 53 455 8.58 3 28.4 84.1% 7.22 14 Trent Richardson 2012 22 1-3 CLE NFL 15 15 70 51 367 7.20 1 24.5 72.9% 5.24 15 Miles Sanders 2019 22 2-53 PHI NFL 16 11 63 50 509 10.18 3 31.8 79.4% 8.08 16 Steve Slaton 2008 22 3-89 HOU NFL 16 15 59 50 377 7.54 1 23.6 84.7% 6.39
  15. Ok but are Tarik Cohen and Duke Johnson more talented than Gibson? I don't think so. That being said, the 70 receptions would be high end ceiling production is not likely--but it certainly is possible.
  16. Part of why his draft stock may be rising is the growing awareness of how open the WA backfield situation is. Yes, they have tons of talented guys but the best are either quite old or have major injury questions. So if Gibson is the guy some think he is, he could potentially grab that job and also catch a ton of passes. I put the odds of that around 10% but the high celing is what is driving his value right now.
  17. I would love to have Hollywood and I expect he will make the leap to be a WR1, if he stays healthy. The ability to stay healthy and on the field a full season is my only concern, but that is a real concern so you have to adjust your ranking of him accordingly.
  18. I think we will see other receivers--Hollywood, Dobbins, Boykin, and maybe Duvernay, cutting into Andrews' targets as teams scheme to stop Andrews. The TD regression is almost certain. He is a solid fantasy TE and I would love to have him in dynasty, but I would guess he is more likely to stay in the TE 4-6 range rather than jump to the TE1 or TE2 range.
  19. 2.02! It looks like Bowden is trending up based on other drafts as well but that seems crazy optimistic.
  20. 3.1 for Bowden is the highest I have seen.
  21. You won your league and still ended up with two first round picks including the 1!? You need to be giving us advice! Well done.
  22. Obviously there is a threat from Everett but on the other hand there are signs pointing in Higbee's direction. 1) Rams signed him to a 31 Million four year deal in September of 2019; Everett is playing on the last year of his rookie contract and hasn't been extended. 2) Higbee took advantage of his opportunity when Everett went down and had more receiving yards than any receiver in the NFL during those five weeks. That being said, with Brandon Cooks out of town I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of two TE sets in 2020 and both Higbee and Everett will be fantasy worthy. From a dynasty perspective, I like the fact that Higbee has contract stability in an offense that passes a lot and uses the TE.
  23. I am very high on JT and would take him #1 overall in rookie drafts, above CEH. I just think he has the ability to be a top 1 fantasy back and a guy who has multiple top 10 seasons. He will catch better than people think; WI just doesn't pass much.
  24. I would probably decline too but I"m not high on Jarwin. If I could have gotten a 2.02 or maybe 2.03 depending on who fell, I would have dealt him.
  25. I've got him and I"m not openly selling. The only threat I see is that Everett somehow makes a huge leap but it seemed like Higbee solidified his role as the TE1 on that team. I don't see his targets decreasing, but increasing. What kinds of players would you offer as comparable value?