Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums


  • Content Count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

851 Excellent

1 Follower

About BigTex

  • Rank
    Don't mess with Texas

Contact Methods

  • Website URL
  • ICQ

Profile Information

  • Location
    Deep in the Heart of Texas

Recent Profile Visitors

12,055 profile views
  1. How can the speed score be resented "right along with" the pass protection yet you state that it was in the "very next post"????? This is an oxymoron. LOL, you're reaching and I was answering a legitimate question that was asked in this thread. I asked you to explain the "speed score" which you were too excited to post and yet you ignored it. Not every posted about the speed score is a slight at you. Tex
  2. Hey Doc, for me it's not the speed score in of itself. The speed score was presented in this thread as the "end all be all" when we all should know that speed in the 40 is over-rated. People used speed to down play Dalvin Cook and we see how that turned out. The reason is simply because some players react differently when the lights come on. Watching CEH play, he seems to be one of those players. Now if the speed score in question was used in conjunction with other data points then ok then we have something like pass blocking.....ok. That's a concern but that same concern applies to Taylor as well. So my point being that taking one point (speed score) and simply calling a player out for that one (IMHO flawed data point is just not a good stance to take). Besides, he a shorter player with tree trunk legs, what were we expecting him to run and based on what? At the end of the day my friend, he's a baller. He ran through the SEC which is full of NFL caliber players. Stay safe, Tex
  3. He also states: WHAT ABOUT THE FILM? I get it. Clyde’s film is intoxicating, and his spin move is absolutely filthy. I’m not going to fault you if you take Clyde Edwards-Helaire at 1.01 in your rookie draft. Certainly, your decision will be supported by some of the best film analysis in the industry (See @RayGQue’s breakdown of JT and CEH below). I follow Ray and he does a great job of breaking down film. He then says the following: T’S ABOUT THE RISK "Ultimately, I’m okay being wrong about CEH because I’m more comfortable when my top-rated player has rave film reviews AND has an outlier production profile AND an outlier athleticism profile. Simply put, my model says players like CEH are riskier bets than players like Taylor, Dobbins, or Akers. As a result, I have CEH slotted in at number 3 in my ranks, behind Taylor and Dobbins." Tex
  4. "Players with a YPT greater than 6.8 significantly outperformed their peers (and I didn’t even control for a touch minimum)! Which players from the 2020 class exceeded this threshold? Jonathan Taylor, D’Andre Swift, Anthony McFarland, Raymond Calais, and Javon Leake. Does that mean players like JK Dobbins or CEH won’t be as successful right? No!" <------His disclaimer! This gives him an out (IMHO). This is the biggest danger of using thresholds for analysis. The performance of the outliers is useful for describing only the outliers – it is not useful for comparing players, especially if a player is just on the other side of the arbitrary threshold we set. Consider if I had bumped the threshold down to 6.4 YPT, Dobbins would now be in our split and look like an outlier." Is he using his own threshold??????? Is YPT different from YPA because this is what I have from 2019: Calais 7.8 Leake 7.0 Dobbins 6.7 CEH 6.6 Taylor 6.3 Swift 6.2 Moss 6.0 McFarland 5.4 Akers 4.9 Personally, I'm sold on CEH as this is a no brainer for me. Tex
  5. One of the best articles I've read about CEH with insight from Greg Cosell and Dane Brugler: Tex
  6. You clearly overlooked this, I'll post it again. 1. Performance vs competition: It should be noted that Texas (9), Florida (7), Auburn (9), and Alabama (3) were all ranked inside the top 10 when LSU played against them. Given that Edwards-Helaire showed out against top opponents, I’m optimistic that he can be a solid contributor in the NFL as a rusher and receiver. Most importantly, CEH showcased a three-down skill set against several strong opponents. 2. Backfield Dominator Rating: Backfield Dominator Ratings are scaled in much the same way as the Workhorse Metric. A score above 90 is elite, and somewhat rare. A score above 80 is very good, but anything above 70 is solid. Scores below 60 could indicate a potential timeshare situation. His final season Backfield Dominator Rating of 0.80 is superior to that of several highly projected RB prospects, most notably: J.K. Dobbins (0.68), D’Andre Swift (0.47), Cam Akers (0.74), and Jonathan Taylor (0.62). Note that a higher Backfield Dominator Rating season doesn’t mean that he’s a superior prospect. 3. Breakout age and final season adjusted all-purpose ypg: Research shows that two of the more important indicators for RB success in the NFL are breakout age and final season adjusted all-purpose yards per game. Given CEH’s contributions in all three phases of the game, we can see that he performs quite well in this metric. CEH averaged 139 all-purpose yards per game, easily crossing the threshold for breakout age of 130 adjusted all-purpose yards per game. Further research has also shown that RBs who break out at a younger age go on to find NFL success at a 43.5% hit rate. Additionally, research has shown that the difference in fantasy production between 21-year-old rookie RBs and their 22-year-old counterparts is vast. Almost 40% of the seasons produced by RBs who were 21-year-old rookies were RB2 seasons. 4. Early Breakout age: Breaking out on its own was an important determinant of success. Overall, players who broke out at any age hit 33.6 percent of the time, almost three times more frequently than those who did not break out. The effects of breakout age grow as that number gets lower. Players who break out by their 21st birthday hit roughly twice as often as those who break out at after 21.The value of breakout age was shown not just in hit rate, but also overall PPR production. Players who broke out by their 21st birthday averaged over twice as many PPR points in their best season as players who did not break out at all. Happy Hunting Boys, Tex
  7. Not true and he played behind Guice. You're throwing up things to see what sticks. Tex
  8. Oh my! Those two blocks were wicked!' Tex
  9. In the 1st year? Even with Hilton still on the team and Taylor getting Bell Cow type carries? Tex
  10. If I was you I would wait to move Zeke, there's a chance he'll be the #1 running back in the league this year especially with the addition of Lamb. Teams can no longer put 8 in the box and Zeke is going to eat all day long. I have Zeke and I'm going to wait until after next season as I'm beating I could get top 3 pick and then some. Tex
  11. I'm glad I have him on my team and the fact that he's paired with a young elite QB is icing on the cake. Tex