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About btemp

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  1. Evans isn't at 100% and hasn't been the entire season. Arians said he's at 80% right now. The concern is he's unhealthy the entire season and is completely TD dependent. Teams are still doubling him a lot, that might change which would open it up more for Evans. Also, Evans won't play in the slot. They tried that, he's not good at it. He doesn't have the skillset. Evans, as good as he is, isn't a versatile WR. He's a big bodied, get vertical type, he's not a crisp route runner.
  2. One thing I'm wondering about: Has Pollard's value as a Lotto taken a serious hit? With that OL and no Prescott, does Pollard have much value? In a strict sense he does if Elliott is injured. But with an OL that currently has only 1/5 starters, is there much upside there?
  3. It's an easy answer to me to go for it. 1) The data backs it up 2) The Vikings were running the ball down the Seahawks throat 3) Just the simple logic of it. Where would you put your money - stopping Russell Wilson from driving 90 yards with 4 down football or getting 1 yard vs the Seahawks D? I'd put my money on getting that 1 yard every day of the week. Process>Results. The Vikings had the right process, just unlucky with the result. It happens.
  4. My thoughts: 1) Brady will look better than this. It was a tough defense, no preseason, first totally new offense. Yes, he's had new OCs like Charlie and McDaniels but the verbiage has largely stayed the same and the internal concepts I would guess didn't change much. 2) Brady's upside is capped by Arians scheme & playcalling. Arians hasn't had a good offense since 2016. He has outdated pass concepts and heavily out-dated run concepts. A great comparison is Dirk Koetter, who shares a similar scheme. It's very boom-bust with a high turnover rate. With good matchups the offense will be productive but the right defense will shut it down. Brady won't realise the potential of his weapons, but he has enough weapons he will be productive. 3) The real concern is Brady's decision making. Both INTs were bad reads by him, and he had others where he was lucky they weren't intercepted. But a lot of this is likely due to overthinking in a totally new system. How much is system and how much age? Don't know. How much will he improve within the system? Don't know. 4) Brady still has the arm to make 90% of the throws he needs to make. But the ability to make quick reads and deliver given his age and new system is the question. He will look better than Week 1 though.
  5. I'm not sold on Fournette being a better back, they're slightly different players (although both suck at pass blocking, don't contribute much in the passing game, and are inefficient runners). My concern with Fournette is that he's been such a volume guy. His fantasy relevance has come from his ability to get a high number of carries. Even if he supplants Jones, I don't think he gets those volume opportunities in Tampa. And ultimately, I agree they will be limited by the scheme. Also the OL (although it's less a factor than the scheme). The Bucs have a mis-match of blocking types (zone guys like Marpet and Jensen with man-on-man blockers like Wirfs and Smith).
  6. As a Bucs fan, I've watched every one of Jones snaps. Did you watch him Sunday? He's still struggling to find a hole. When well blocked and with an easy read he'll put his foot in the ground and gets some yards. Jones has below average vision, receiving, and pass blocking ability. His only utility in the passing game is with screens, he can't run any other routes well (although he has some value in the screen game). The idea "He could've had 100 all purpose yards" ignores what he did with his touches - which is very little. He averaged 3.9 yards a carry which accurately reflects how he looked. As Dr. Octopus said, he had one nice run. But he also had a few where he missed the hole or failed to move through it quickly enough. I've been saying this since his rookie year. People are holding out hope for a player that doesn't exist and by midseason will likely be supplanted by Fournette.
  7. While I don't like Fournette or Rojo as RBs (both are bad pass blockers and really inefficient runners), they're upside is further capped by Arians scheme. With Arizona, his teams were 23rd, 31st, 8th, 18th, and 30th in rushing yardage (Bucs were 24th last year). The one good season was that magical 2015 season. His scheme is vanilla and lacks all the motions, pulls, zones, etc. of strong running schemes like those run by Shanahan, Reid or McVay. It's always been a weakness of his offenses. Because of that mediocre backs like Rojo and Fournette have their upside further capped.
  8. Fair. (FYI I didn't feel this was an emotional thing, I agreed with your point we were having an argument/debate. It's good stuff). I think though week 1 is just showing it's more of the same for Rojo. I will be shocked if he's not supplanted by Fournette at some point (I don't love Fournette either) or at least an inefficient, 2-way RBBC. Of course, it's not just Rojo. Arians blocking scheme is TERRIBLE. It's a big weakness of his, he' runs a vanilla man blocking scheme. None of the zone, misdirection, sweeps you see with consistently good running games like Reid, Shanahan or McVay. Arians/Leftwich, as we're seeing Week 1. But Rojo just isn't a good modern back. I think a good comparison is Sony Michel (except I don't know how Sony Michel's pass pro is). Rojo is still a 2 down RB who struggles at pass pro. He almost whiffed on a Saints blitz (got a small piece of the blitzer) that hit Brady but almost got him killed. Watching him today, I'm seeing the same lack of development. Yes, it's better than Year 1. But that's like saying Spinach Meatloaf is better than Spam lol.
  9. What subject did I change? You said college and last year... so I guess we're talking about 2017 and 2019 but not 2018? And you'd better believe his first NFL year was relevant. He was terrible in all phases. He drastically improved in year 2 but to the point he's a below average back with still major holes in pass pro and receiving (his vision is still mediocre too). It's an important data point. Everything I said applies to last year. He caught more balls but he was heavily schemed too because his competition was Peyton Barber and Dare, two guys who dream of being JAGs. His route tree is limited, much like Fournettes actually, and keeps his upside severely capped. It is of course possible that he drastically improves (Brady could have a big impact). His pass pro still isn't great out of camp, but maybe he becomes an effective enough runner he can put together a strong year based on high volume (assuming Fournette and McCoy don't turn this into a 3-way RBBC).
  10. Uhhh... I've watched a lot of Ronald Jones and also read a lot of reports out of training camp. He was a 2 down back in college who's mightily struggled in pass pro and pass catch in the NFL. Every year he "improves" but still has a major deficit in both areas. Further, his vision sucks. It's why he struggled so much he had a 1.9 yard average his first year. Future Hall of Famer Peyton Barber had 3.7 yards. Ronald Jones ran through truck-sized holes in college and tried to bounce everything his rookie year. He got better at reading in year 2, but you could maybe say he has average vision. Both his -2.3% DVOA and the Bucs bringing in Fournette (which I disagreed with you about) support my assertions - as does the film I've watched. Frankly, you don't know what you're talking about. edit: You also can go back and read all my posts about the Bucs backfield (and Rojo) I've had it largely pegged since then (although I thought Barber would hit 1000 last year, he got 871). Rojo might take a big step forward this year under Brady. But it's going to need to be a big step forward. He's been a big disappointment.
  11. Him not knowing the playbook is an issue, but it doesn't stop the Bucs (or any team) bringing him in and getting him quickly up to speed. RB isn't rocket science, especially given the Bucs have a 3rd down back in Dare already (McCoy will be the pass catcher but I'll be surprised if he can pick up the pass blocking scheme). The part I don't get is saying Fournette isn't as good as Ronald Jones. Fournette, who isn't anything special, has demonstrated an ability as a rusher, blocker, and receiver above RoJo. Hell, Rojo would've been cut his rookie year if he wasn't a 2nd round pick. Yes, Ronald Jones can take a massive step forward and become a better RB than Fournette. It's possible. But Ronald Jones will all of a sudden need to learn to read holes, pass block, and catch the football. He's a really limited back with some elusiveness and speed.
  12. Perriman's the 3rd wideout and my guess to replace Evans. Watson struggled in camp and was almost cut. He couldn't beat out Bobo Wilson or Scotty Miller earlier in the year. Oh, you don't recognize those names? That tells you all you need to know. Both were bad. There's always some risk when a player comes out of nowhere and gets that level of targets. It is entirely possible Watson takes Evans role and they leave Perriman at his #3 spot. But I would be scared of that because Watson did nothing all training camp and season to this point. He's had 2 targets!!! until yesterday. So, if it was me I'd target Perriman, knowing the risk that Watson may be scheduled for the #2 role.
  13. It's got to be TD and volume based. Expecting a lot of points with chances for short yardage TDs.
  14. I think people aren't factoring in the marginal value of the Pats D. Even if/when they come down to earth, the points added by the Pats D over a wavier-wire FA can be much more significant than the drop from a WR2 to WR3.