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About barackdhouse

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  1. I do feel I am a creative or smart enough (or whatever it is) owner to nail a draft despite putting myself into a more difficult situation by taking an elite TE early. I usually evaluate RBs pretty hard and can find value RB picks in the 4th thru 10th rounds. Even if there is a run in that 2nd to 3rd like you mentioned. And that does happen. But, for me I would be happy to take Chubb at 2.03 even though there is likely a stud WR on the board. Go Kelce and a RB and you are probably better off than Kelce and a WR, strictly in terms of the level of difficulty for the rest of the draft. Ingram is typically there at the end of the 3rd. I think he makes a fine RB1. Montgomery and Ingram make a fine RB 1/2 at the 3nd and 4th round turn. There are other names there, too. I'm not stoked about the WRs in that area so going Kelce RB RB seems right and maybe even Mahomes. But I wouldn't be opposed to Kelce RB RB RB. In all reality I probably take OBJ or Julio or someone like that at 2.03 if they are there and I think a RB will be there in the 3rd/4th. I have typically always done very well with teams like this. I'm just saying I think there are lots of options even with picking a TE early, but as I've said before I do this *some* of the time. I've played a lot of FBG where it is TE premium so I have a lot of midstakes experience drafting early TEs. Yes the boards are different but taking an early TE still reverberates through the rest of your draft. Many of the same patterns apply.
  2. I'm not saying I would draft a TE early in every league but I'm definitely not afraid to. I also agree there is not as much depth at the top of the WR ranks. The only real change in my draft performance if I take Kelce in the top 10 is that I have to work a little harder on my WR2. If I draft well enough I feel this is doable. Shallow league might be a different story. I've never done one with only 12 rounds.
  3. I guess this runs counter to what most people are saying, but for me my best redraft teams over the years (and best ball) have been ones where I took Kelce, Gronk, or got super lucky by picking the Kittles and Jordan Camerons out there. There is no question that taking an elite TE early affects the rest of your draft, and it reduces the room for error. But WRs can be had, and you should be able to draft a stud TE and still be strong at RB. You can even go TE RB WR or TE WR RB and be off to a very strong start. It is *hard* to replace quality starters at RB or WR, but it can be done. TE is much more difficult and the positional advantage that Kelce gives is second to none. We can debate about albatrossing it with Ertz or Kittle in the 2nd/3rd but personally I think it's worth taking those guys early. And then confidently nailing the rest of your draft.
  4. I took him there in an FBG draft recently. Team turned out pretty good I think. It is TE premium so a *few* players will slide a little farther than usual because people are drafting TEs earlier than they normally would. But the slide effect isn't huge.
  5. I realize the OP is about his rookie year but in his first 6 games against the Bears he had 11 TDs and averaged 123 YPG. Averaged 111 over his career vs Bears if I did the math in my head right.
  6. As a Bears fan I will never forget how he tore up a championship caliber defense (to shreds) his rookie year. Bears adjusted their scheme and approach in response for every Vikings game thereafter.
  7. I also take the Thielen side but I don't see 1.02-1.06 as the same tier.
  8. If you're making social commentaries, like reporters do, or like we might be doing when we all argue about this stuff on boards like this or elsewhere, yes. But when you're in the middle of a huge hand of poker, the rules of the game are literally that you can't possibly know the facts, but are required to act anyway. You may be right that holding was the best move here, but hindsight is the decider on that. Just like after folding a hand and realizing later you would have won if you'd stayed in, there are those of us that felt compelled to bail on Hill, based on the limited (but really powerful) information we had at the time. Speaking for myself, I got a lot more than peanuts for selling him, but no question it was at a now realized loss. I took the possibility into account that this would happen and decided I would be ok folding what could have been the winning hand. I feel the measured, marginal fold (of an admittedly really large pot) was better than shipping all my chips and losing. Hey @dipandglide I wasn't trying to direct this at you just decided your quote was a good jumping off place. Otherwise yeah here is me eating crow. I was wrong I'll eat it.
  9. That's cool. I take both ideas into account when I use either word. IDK.
  10. 12 team FFPC style (this one disbands after a 2020 jackpot season) I gave Mixon I got Ingram, JJAW, 2020 1st and 2nd (I project early FWIW) Since the league disbands after 2020, Mixon's youth shouldn't give him any extra value than Ingram, other than any difference in actual production in 2019 and 2020. I expect Ingram to score about the same as Mixon in 2019 so I see those two as a wash. 2020 may be a quite different story though. It also means that *if* those rookie picks hit they have to hit in 2020. A tall order but am hoping it becomes an early RB. And JJAW is my mancrush this year and expect him to be fantasy relevant as early as midseason this year. I need WRs pretty bad on this roster.
  11. Young QBs tend to target their TEs a little more. The drumbeat has been steady since the 2018 draft, preseason and then he emerged in his rookie season. Although I agree the Ravens offense won't have a lot of targets to go around, and that he will have some competition from Hurst, he is the clear favorite to be their #1 receiving TE. And he is relatively cheap.
  12. Yeah that's what I was thinking. I agree about Harry but he is extremely flippable. Personally I like Montgomery to emerge as a 3 down back in Chicago. I think Cohen will also play 3 downs but it will be something like two series for Montgomery one for Cohen. If they are in catchup mode they maybe lean heavier to Cohen if it's run out the clock or ball control modes they lean more to Montgomery. I don't think their defense will put them in a bunch of catchup scenarios. Also I really like the way Montgomery runs and I think he will really emerge there. But that's just my homer 10 cents. I also would have ran to make both those picks and not looked back. Henderson is the other one I would consider but maybe you can move back with Harry and get Henderson that way? Sanders is the one I think get stuck in a timeshare. Montgomery gets 60%+ in my opinion and that is as good as you'll get out of this draft.
  13. It's been mentioned but it isn't just the limited touches he got last year it's the touches he didn't get. He presumably got plenty of reps in training camp and the preseason. I don't know how many #1 reps he got during the season, but bottom line is he didn't earn snaps. Yeah maybe those coaches were wrong about him. I guess. Saying we have a small sample size for Jones in the NFL is one thing, but if you were looking at the dataset that included every rep in practice, which would mean you are a coach or GM, it would be much more robust. We don't have access to those data, but we do have access to *some* of the conclusions that were drawn by those coaches. And it is damning. While also acknowledging he is young and can still develop - the conclusions were snapshots in time subject to possible change. But what do the odds of improvement look like? I suppose we'll get some more feedback real soon.