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About Lionsfan011

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  1. I play in a similar type league that's a 12 team PPR with 2 keepers and allows trading the following year's draft picks. Only difference is yours appears to assign draft pick slots to keepers where mine is doesnt have any cost to keeping players. We haven't run into the Hail Mary problem but definitely see a couple teams go into Fire Sale mode every year. Your idea of additional money to the pot from each owner involved in every draft pick trade probably works fine but I think it gets costly too quick and discourages draft pick trading. And that's fine if that's what you're going for. An alternative is to have owners make a non-refundable $100 deposit for the first draft pick trade they make during the season. That deposit doesn't go into the current year's pot and serves as entry fee payment in advance for the following season. When the following year rolls around you simply don't collect an entry fee from these owners as you already have it. Another idea to discourage Hail Mary and Fire Sale is to have a consolation bracket for the non playoff teams. Winner gets the first pick in next year's draft. The remaining non playoff teams go into a weighted lottery. It prevents tanking and will discourage fringe playoff teams from going into Hail Mary mode. I'm not a fan of excluding the top 30 players from draft pick trades. I like the idea of every player being available for the right price and being able to upgrade keepers if I'm in Fire Sale mode. Last year I traded Mixon plus draft picks for an injured Barkley. Both teams won as i improved a keeper for this year and the other guy made a run in the playoffs. That trade never happens with excluding the top 30 players from draft pick trades. Another example would be if someone has a premium TE and is out of the playoff picture. I don't like the idea of not being able to deal Kelce or Kittle for draft picks due to the top 30 rule but guys like Andrews or Ertz would be acceptable to move. I like the idea of Aug 1st to declare keepers. I'd also implement a rule of No Pay, No Draft to ensure everyone pays their entry fee before the draft. Completely agree that all draft pick trades should be like for like so all teams have an equal number of draft picks. Trying to sort out an uneven amount of draft picks is hell. It's easy enough to include your last round pick to even out the number of picks in a draft pick trade.
  2. Any concerns on workload and being a benefactor of late-season fresh legs for Drake? He's been pumped up to low end RB1 status from his huge weeks in 15 and 16. But he entered those games benefiting from 3 well spaced bye weeks along the way (Week 5 in Miami, Week 8 traded, Week 12 Arizona) and had only 111 carries through Week 14. Was this a case of fresh legs? He did the same thing in 2017 with only having 42 carries through Week 11 then exploding the remainder of the season. Another thing to consider is his workload. In his 4 years, the 170 carries he got last year was his high mark with 133 being the next highest. If he's to get 240 carries as being suggested can he (1) handle that amount of workload and (2) be as efficient throughout 2020 with all those carries as we saw him down the stretch last year. Not a hater here and I am considering him at his current ADP. Trying to determine how much risk there is with Drake. Seems like a boom or bust candidate at his current ADP.
  3. Voted No. Arm strength at 43 and more importantly no off-season to develop chemistry with Evans and Godwin. Should be a solid FF QB still.
  4. I'm in the belief Swift landed in the worst possible spot for a RB and it has zero to do with Kerryon Johnson and everything to do with being a Detroit Lion. The Lions have been awful at running the ball and having useful FF RB's since Barry Sanders retired. The reason for this falls into 3 categories - poor offensive lines, bad coaches/management, and injuries. Here's how Lions RB have performed in FF for the 21 seasons since Barry retired. *All numbers determined via FootballGuys historical rankings*. In PPR, the Lions have had a league worst two RB1 finishes (Reggie Bush as RB7 in 2013 and Kevin Jones as RB12 in 2006). They're fifth worst for total number of RB1 and RB2 finishes in that time with many of those RB2 finishes just barely cracking the top 24. If broken down into number of top 20 FF RB finishes they'd be last in the league. Only 1 Lions RB (Joique Bell) had multiple seasons of finishing as a top 20 FF RB while in a Lions uniform in 21 years. It gets worse in standard scoring for Lions FF RB's. Last in RB1 finishes (only Bush as RB10 in 2013), last in RB1 and RB2 finishes, last in top 20 FF RB finishes, and zero Lions RB having multiple top 20 FF finishes in a Lions uniform. For PPR and standard, the top scoring Lions FF RB has had the worst average FF RB finish among all teams during the past 21 years. The Lions haven't had a PPR or standard FF RB1 or RB2 season in the past 5 years, the entire Quinn era. It'd be easy to write off everything above saying the Lions have had terrible RB's during the past 2 decades and Swift is the best RB prospect they've had since Barry retired. The Lions have certainly spent a bunch of draft capital and brought in decent free agent RB's during that time frame. They've spent late 1st round picks on K Jones and Best, early-mid 2nd's on Leshoure, Abdullah, Kerryon, Swift, and the first pick of the 3rd round on K Smith. Free agents they've brought in are J Stewart and Bush. Among the draft picks I'd rank Swift second behind Jones, a 3 down RB with receiving ability (he had 61 receptions the year he finished RB12 in PPR). How could a team that's invested this much into the RB position be so terrible at producing quality FF RB's? Let's start with the offensive line. *All numbers pulled from Football Outsiders*. The Lions have had the worst run blocking in the league over the past 21 years and it's not even close. During those 21 years they've finished in the top half of the league in run blocking just 3 times and never finishing higher than 13th. On the opposite end, they've ranked in the bottom 3 a whopping 11 times in 21 years. In the Bob Quinn years they've finished no higher than 20th and bottom 3 twice in his 4 years. The offensive line for 2020 doesn't look promising either after watching their best OG leave in free agency because they didn't want to pay him. For 2020 they'll have an average/sightly above average LT, a very good C, a free agent signing at RT who played great in spot duty but hasn't been a full time OT yet, a rookie at one G spot with the other being a below average player. An injury to either the LT or C would leave this line in really rough shape. Now with the coaching/management. Not much needs to be said about the Millen and Mayhew (Millen Jr) years. Quinn hasn't done much better. Did you know no former Lions head coach has ever been rehired as a NFL head coach once he was fired from the Lions? How about the Lions having a league worst 1 playoff win (every other team has at least 3) in 60+ years? How about no division titles in the past 25+ years (only Cleveland has a longer streak). The bottom line is the Lions have inept coaching and management that is constantly hiring and firing coaches. Management does a poor job of drafting and retaining lineman and the coaches aren't good at coaching them up. As alluded to in the Lions letting their best guard, in his prime, leave in free agency this year - management has let quality lineman leave in free agency, during their prime, over the years ranging from Compton (Super Bowl champ on Brady's first Superbowl team), Hartings to Pitt, Warford to NO and now Glasgow to Denver. The problem for Swift is you're counting on Lions coaches/management to provide him an oline and utilize him well to become a reliable FF RB even if you're not a Kerryon believer (I'm not). Opportunity isn't the issue here, it'll be there whether it's this year or in year 2-3 depending when Kerryon is gone, it's the expectation Swift's talent will be utilized properly by bad coaches. And maybe Patricia/Quinn will be gone after this season. But even this brings problems. The first is counting on the Lions to hire a good coaching staff which is unlikely. The second is Swift now becomes a guy who wasn't drafted by the current regime. And third, the new coaching staff would have to run a system that is favorable to Swift. There is no continuity with the Lions - they cycle through coaches every 3-4 years. Last is the injuries. We shouldn't predict injuries but I think it's fair to look at past Lions RB's both on the field and in the pre-draft process to see if Swift has a higher than normal injury risk. Out of the 7 high draft capital RB's mentioned above we know in the pre-draft process that Best (concussion), Abdullah (nagging leg injuries), and Kerryon (hasn't played a full season since high school) were injury risks. All 3 of these guys went on to major injuries during their time as Lions with Best being forced to retire from further concussions, Abdullah suffered a lis franc injury but has managed to do ok as a reserve RB in Minnesota, and Kerryon has missed the better part of his 2 seasons thus far. As for the other 3 guys with cleaner health during the pre-draft process - K Jones suffered a lis franc injury on the field and was never the same, Leshoure blew his achilles before the start of his first NFL season and was never the same, and K Smith was relatively injury free, just the least talented of the the bunch. Now let's look at Swift. Two of the knocks against him going into the draft were he's never carried a full load and has nagging ankle/foot injuries. I think it's fair to say he's a higher injury risk candidate than normal. Maybe it's the curse of the Lions RB position. Talent triumphs over situation when it comes to FF RB's. There's exceptions to every rule though and there's enough evidence when it comes to the inept Lions and their running game that the Detroit situation >> RB talent. There's a decent chance Swift's terrible situation of landing in Detroit will hold him back from reaching his potential. I'd love to be wrong and see Swift become the next great Lions RB and be an elite FF RB. Maybe he will be the one to break the Lions mold and thrive. It's tough to believe that will happen given their history. I'd feel much better about Swift's FF potential if he was on any team other than the Lions.
  5. I was looking at old Lions stats today to get a feel for how Swift might project. Reggie Bush in 2013 (RB7 in PPR and RB10 in standard) is the only top 10 FF Lions RB since Barry retired. Kevin Jones in 2006 was RB12 in PPR (RB23 in standard) to be the only other Lions RB to finish as a RB1 during that time.
  6. Amari Cooper - A few less targets this year with Lamb added to Gallup. The writing is on the wall for his dynasty value though. His new contract has a cheap out clause after Year 2. Right around the time Dallas should be in poor cap shape with the Prescott, Elliott, Cooper and o-line contracts. I think they move on from Cooper and roll with Lamb and Gallup. It's unlikely Cooper ends up in as good of a situation as the Dallas offense. All Chargers WR/TE's - For 2020 redraft at least. Not that Herbert was a bad pick but his selection confirms Tyrod Taylor and a rookie will be throwing to the WR's and TE's this season.
  7. 12 teams, 2 keepers with starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RB's, 2 WR's, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D. It's a PPR league with standard scoring and passing TD's worth 4 pts. Remaining players and rookies in the draft pool and picking 11th. Keep 2 of 3 from Chubb, D Henry, Julio
  8. You crushed it for the Lions. Every one of those guys were higher on draft boards than where you took them. Of course the real Lions draft won't go like that. Quinn will burn at least a couple picks on reaches.
  9. He died due to having cancer and liver failure. Likely due to excessive smoking of marijuana. Can confirm he smoked weed almost daily since at least his sophomore year of high school. MSU and the Lions hid that fact pretty well while he played with them.
  10. I grew up in Saginaw the same time Rogers did. I was a grade above him but went to a different high school. Also went to Michigan State during his entire college career. Just a ridiculous athlete between football, basketball and track. Could tell countless stories about him. I don’t care if I’m biased, most talented WR to enter the NFL since Moss with exception to Calvin. While not surprising this one hits a little close to home. Word was he relapsed and couldn’t come back from it this time around. RIP.
  11. 10 team - start 1 QB, 1 TE Team A gives Mahomes, Hockenson (has Wilson and Ebron) Team B gives Mayfield, Engram (has Rivers and Henry)
  12. Agree to disagree here. The next 5 years is Barkley's age 23-27 seasons and he's a generational talent. The next 5 years is his prime. He holds much more value than Chubb, especially in PPR leagues and is 1 yr younger than Chubb. I can agree Chubb will hang around RB5 the next few years but stand by what I said originally. You're giving up on the #1 dynasty/keeper asset for a 2-3 month window.
  13. Keep in mind if you're rostering Brees that he has the same bye week as Goff in Week 9. Tough to say what to do without knowing the rest of your roster but on the surface it seems moving Howard for Goff is a good deal for you.
  14. Re-draft: I'd say yes. JuJu will score more points rest of season than Henry and improves your starting lineup. Henry is also an injury risk. The only downside to trading Henry away is losing out on a quality fall back option at TE in case something happens to Ertz. Dynasty: Run, don't walk, to accept this.
  15. I'd pull the trigger on this. While you can only start 1 QB, the only real concern about making this trade is moving Watson in such a deep league where it's tough to roster 2 quality QB's where it could come back to hurt you if anything happened to Mahomes. I like the idea of adding another solid RB to your group (Freeman is about done) and more importantly, adding the 1st. Next year's draft class is loaded and should give you a great chance to infuse young talent into an already tremendous team that should prevent you from doing a rebuild. I figure having four 1st's should allow you flexibility in moving up to the top of the draft and grabbing guys you want (Taylor, Swift, Jeudy) or possibly move one of them for someone like Hockenson to have your next man up at TE with Kelce approaching the end of his prime.