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KarmaPolice

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  1. KarmaPolice

    Draftkings Week 11

    In an addition to the above rambling post, it makes a little more sense now that I just looked that the QBs with the most RZ passing attempts on the season: Brees, Luck, Goff, Mahomes, Eli, Brady, Ben, Watson, Rodgers, Flacco. I hate these lists, because it's making me think about Eli who I hate with a passion.
  2. KarmaPolice

    Draftkings Week 11

    My usual reason is ownership for gpp. The stud RBs and WRs are heavy owned for a reason, but it's harder to make up that production and get a lower owned guy. Qb scoring is a bit flatter, so it's a good spot to get the lower owned guy. I think Ryan is just as likely to hit 4-5X as Brees, but has about 1/7th the ownership projected. On the topic of Brees, one thing that makes me a tad nervous is Philly just lost to Dallas at home and Zeke destroyed them, and there is a decent shot that NO gets up quick and is able to run the ball like they want to. They are next level efficient with the attempts, but since Ingram came back Brees doesn't throw nearly as much. The last 3 weeks he's only averaging 28 attempts/game, which is about 19th for Qbs during that time. Like I said, they are hyper-efficient attempts since Thomas is catching 90% of his targets, but I do wonder if that limits his upside a tad, especially considering he is the most expensive and projected to be the highest owned. ETA: Just looked at a chart, and on the year NO passes 53.54% of the time, but over the last 3 weeks, it's dropped to 44.16% - good for 2nd lowest in the league behind Houston during that time. The team right above them is Indy, and Luck is somebody that I liked this week and it's making me stare a that a little now too. The top teams on the list for the last 3 weeks were: Det, NYG, Balt, Atl, TB, AZ, Jax, Philly
  3. KarmaPolice

    FanDuel Week 11

    Decisions made. I have 10 Lus, 3 in SEs and 7 in one gpp. Going 1 Brees, 2 Wentz, 3 Ryan, and 4 Luck. I think I stuck with players mentioned above for the most part. A couple examples: Wentz - Gordon/Zeke - Jeffery/Agholor/T.Smith - RSJ - Kamara - Wash Luck - Barkley/Kamara - Hilton/T.Smith/Shepard - Etz - Snead - Wash I do have 1 or 2 without Philly/NO players at all, but I figured something like the top LU got a game stack without the 2 top owned players, and the bottom one had combos from NYG/NO, but has a lower owned Luck along with it. Going to try to stop tinkering too much now, or work on my DK variations.
  4. KarmaPolice

    FanDuel Week 11

    Man, I just saw something predicting Golladay as the 4th highest owned WR on the week. Anyway, here are some gpp ramblings for the week: Again, mainly just looking for lower owned pivots, and by all means get those NO/NYG/AZ guys in there. QB: I still think the low % plays here are the QBs in the Dal/Atl game if you like that one. I also think Luck will be the less popular QB in that game. Seeing how I lean home QBs usually, I think it's Ryan/Luck/Brees the main guys for me with Wentz as the 4th. RB: Besides M.Thomas and Ertz, this is probably the best place to get lower ownership as it's probably the highest concentration of % with the studs. The problem this week is guessing who is going to be high owned. My guess is Barkley, Zeke, DJ, and Lewis?? Gordon usually seems lowered owned, and I guess McCaffrey is lost in the bunch a bit too. I think those RBs in the Pitts/Jax could be underowned and those are some high volume guys. Low low darts might be Miller, Mack, and Lindsay? WR: I think Thomas will be hella owned, and OBJ will be the other stud at the top. I think C.Davis could be a popular cheaper guy and Golladay with Marvin out. SO - the WR1 pivots (if you want to risk a Thomas-less LU) might be Allen/Hopkins/Brown/Julio. In general, I think secondary WRs in the big games could be an interesting way to go as well. T.Smith, Shepard, D.Jax/Godwin/Humphries, Agholor/Tate, etc.. You could still do the stud RBs with a core like Julio/T.Smith/D.Jax/Shepard and go with the owned RBs. Super low darts might be the Balt WRs? main guys I like this week for gpps are Hilton/Jeffery/Cooper/Shepard/secondary TB WRs. TE: it probably comes down to whether you Ertz or don't Ertz. Maybe guys like Doyle/Engram/Howard will be slightly lower owned, or just dumpster dive.
  5. KarmaPolice

    Draftkings Week 11

    Fair enough points.
  6. KarmaPolice

    Draftkings Week 11

    I keep landing on the 5.2k with Dak and Eli. Of the "studs" I am looking at Ryan for lower ownership. I just can't get a peg on the RBs. My assumption going into the week was that Barkley, Zeke, and D.Johnson would be the popular guys since Gordon seems lower owned every week and Philly rush D is decent (except last week I guess), so thought Kamara might dip lower. Also thought Lewis would be unpopular since he burnt a lot of people last week. A projection I saw had Kamara, Lewis, Conner, and McCaffrey as the top 4, and I was very surprised to see that, but would love it if it's true since I like the others I listed above more. ETA: I also keep going back to the pods repeating that for gpps WR probably should be in the flex a majority of the time. I assume if Lewis is high owned, it's because he is in the flex and people pay up for 2 other Rbs.
  7. KarmaPolice

    Draftkings Week 11

    @TwinTurbo - one spot I saw had Watson as the 4th highest owned on the slate and Hopkins as 2nd highest WR. I was kind of surprised by that. One pod suggested for gpps to start by getting off the top couple high owned RBs b/c they usually have the highest ownership of the positions. Not sure how to figure out who the tops on the slate will be since they all seem to be grouped together. One place to start would be a pivot off D.Lewis, but that's hard at that cheap level. I guess it would be Miller, Lindsay, Richard, or Riddick? The other idea I had is that if a combo like Kamara/Zeke/D.Lewis is going to be popular this week, Conner/D.Johnson/Fournette is 100 off of that price, so taking 3 mid salary RBs with upside might be a way be different, or just dropping to two of them with upside.
  8. KarmaPolice

    FanDuel Week 11

    R. ####in' Tonyan? I just got a reminder why I started to hate these single game gpps.
  9. KarmaPolice

    FanDuel Week 11

    Safe is Carson, gpp is Penny?
  10. KarmaPolice

    FanDuel Week 11

    What I was thinking is that if you start with a core of Wilson (probably in MVP), Jones, and Lockett that leaves 8750/player for the last 2 and could add in a couple of: Graham, Moore, Baldwin, PKs, Vannett. IF we go dual QBs, I could see: Rodgers MVP + Wilson/Graham/MVS/Vannett I think it gets a bit thin if you do Wilson in the MVP and try to fit 2 pass catchers b/c I think Lockett is the best option and is pricey.
  11. KarmaPolice

    FanDuel Week 11

    I said F-it and put a couple placeholders in for a cheap gpp. It really feels like both of these teams want to run the ball though, so I am having trouble with this tonight.
  12. KarmaPolice

    Draftkings Week 11

    Was listening to a pod about DK cash LUs and they suggested going with both Kamara and Ingram in cash instead of bothering with D.Lewis. Seemed weird, but their point was the TD equity that Ingram has. Their basic points: pay for 2 of: Kamara/Gordon/Zeke they leaned the 1st 2. go down to Hopkins b/c of savings for the WR1 UNLESS the Philly CB is out, then Thomas gets the nod. IF you want to play Ertz, maybe do K.Allen + Ertz, otherwise try Hopkins + low TE like McDonald/J.Smith look at a Wash WR for savings - Crowder or Harris? Wentz holds the ball a bit and takes sacks, and can be int prone, so NO Def is super cheap and unlocks being able to pay up for 3 studs look for WRs in the Funchess/C.Davis range for the rest. Not sure what that leaves for QB, but I will play with this idea on my break I think. Can't be worse than what I have been putting together.
  13. KarmaPolice

    FanDuel Week 11

    Man, a pod just talked about how Golladay is projected to be in the top 5 for ownership on the week. Probably just my bias against him b/c when I am talked into him he has sucked, but if true, I would rather have others in his price range for lower ownership.
  14. KarmaPolice

    FanDuel Week 11

    I guess I won't be playing any Thurs-Mon gpps on FD. Just checked and all that's left is tix contests for anything $3 and under. Still surprised they don't keep pumping out smaller gpps after the first ones fill, but I guess it's all about the single game slates for those TNF, SNF, and MNF games?
  15. KarmaPolice

    FanDuel Week 11

    I seem to be in the minority, so take it for what it's worth, but I like the Dallas/Atl as a low owned option. If what I saw and heard was right this week, Julio is projected as the lowest owned studs and Dak and Ryan are both going to be low owned. I like the idea of Dak/Cooper/Julio and seeing what I can do in other games like the Philly/NO game along with that stack.