ChicagoArch

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About ChicagoArch

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  1. Pending the final guy paying, the new Tier is full. We've still got 3 orphans available. There is definitely some talent in the dispersal draft pool and high draft picks as well.
  2. We've got 3 openings left in the new tier. We've got 3 orphans left to claim. And one guy is trying to decide between the new tier and an orphan. That leaves 5 openings left.
  3. Come with me And you'll be In a world of pure speculation
  4. We've got 4 spots left in the new tier. and 4 more openings for owners taking over orphans (1 premier league, 2 2nd tier, 2 3rd tier). I'd say a couple of solid teams could be built in the dispersal draft.
  5. I am worried about Ragland. If the Bills resign Zach Brown, I think a typical 4-3 would dictate Zach at WILL, Preston at MIKE and Ragland, who rushed the passer on 3rd down in college, at SAM and coming off the field on passing situations. That said, Zach, Preston and Ragland are all 250+ lbs. Sean McDermott just came from a situation where he had 3 very good-to-elite starting LBs, none of whom were heavier than 235 lbs. If McDermott prefers faster, lighter LBs, I think all of these guys could be an issue and eventually need to find new homes. Between Preston and Ragland, I would prefer Preston hands down. Preston is only a year older than Ragland and has already produced. The chances of a guy who has already produced producing again are much higher than the chances of a guy who hasn't produced producing. If you understood that sentence, you're smarter than I am. If the Bills don't resign Zach Brown, that may be the best scenario for Zach, even considering Buffalo's favorable stat crew. Whenever looking at potential landing spots for UFAs, people always consider the best possible location, i.e. every WR would be amazing if they went to New England. So take this with a grain of salt. But Zach could sign on in Baltimore as Orr's replacement. Zach could sign for Indy and play basically any spot on that defense that isn't played by Clayton Geathers (I'm not saying Brown could play D-Line or Safety, I'm simply pointing out the fact that the Colts defense is almost completely devoid of talent). KC is cash strapped but could sign him as Derrick Johnson's insurance/replacement. Even with the move to a 4-3, San Francisco could sign him as the Will to play next to Navarro Bowman.
  6. Gave up waiting for the final card to fall, and of course it falls 2 hours after. Robert Saleh as DC for 49ers. They could transition to a 4-3 but I have no idea how and honestly don't know what the consequences would be. http://www.sacbee.com/sports/nfl/san-francisco-49ers/article132462939.html
  7. Washington is still a situation to watch. Odds are Manusky keeps it as a 3-4, he was their OLB coach last year. Part of the reason they had trouble finding a new DC is job security. HC Jay Gruden only has one year left on his current deal. There are rumors he might be on the hot seat. I'm sure these are overblown, but the fact that it affected the decisions of potential DC candidates means it's definitely worth tracking. Next year, if they hire a defensive HC to replace the offensive-minded Gruden, imagine Matt Patricia or someone similar switching them to a 4-3. It's not likely, but there's a non-zero chance it happens. San Fran is the only team left DCless. I can't imagine a change to a 4-3. The assumption of rational coaching would say that a new DC would look at the roster and remain in a 3-4. The current roster is easily bottom 2-3 in the league. They have holes at QB, RB depth, WR, TE, O-Line, OLB, ILB and CB. They currently own 11 draft picks, but only one in each of the first 3 rounds. And other than the weather, they're a fairly unattractive destination for free agents. Also, we should probably migrate this all over to the other DC-change thread. No point in having redundancy.
  8. Still looking for orphan replacements and owners to start a new tier.
  9. But this raises the T-Rich/RGIII question and the Jimmy Garoppolo question again. T-Rich had a year as top 16 RB. But someone who drafted him at 1.01 wouldn't consider him a successful draft pick. Same with RGIII. On the other hand, the owner who drafted Jimmy Garoppolo didn't expect him to unseat Brady in year 2. He drafted Garoppolo knowing he would be starting in a few years because all of Belicheck's QBs have a chance to start at one point or another. If Garoppolo gets traded in the offseason to a team where he'll be the starter, that pick was successful. Shaq Thompson was drafted, knowing he would need to wait for Thomas Davis to retire before getting 3-down work. So he's an unsuccessful draft pick because Davis hasn't retired yet? Weighting the success of each pick can lead to some issues as well. I put in 2004-2014. 2004 picks have had a few more years in order to earn those successful years, so would that make 2004 picks more successful than 2014 picks simply by virtue of having more than 3 years experience? Who would've thought that deciding the success of a draft pick would be the most difficult part? Another option is to just cop to the subjectivity. If anyone was interested, a couple people could work their way through the spreadsheet and simply vote whether they thought a pick was successful or not. Who's got time to vote on 960 draft picks?
  10. I need a little more help everyone. I've put 10 years of the Dynasty Wars drafts into a spreadsheet. I'm going to look at what positions get drafted in each round. That's easy. But then I also want to judge which picks are successful so I can put a percentage on picks. 60% chance of success drafting an LB in the 4th round, 4% chance of success drafting a WR in the 7th round, etc. The problem is, how do I determine success? It all seems very objective to me. Some people who have done similar checks in the past consider a top 24 season at their position in the first 3 years a success. But by that measure, T-Rich and RGIII would be considered successes. Someone taking T-Rich 1.01 or RGIII 1.04 wouldn't consider either of those guys a success. Johnny "$50 selfie" Football has scored more fantasy points than Jimmy Garoppolo, but Manziel was drafted to be a starter right away while Garoppolo was drafted to start next year not too mention the invested costs are greatly different. I would consider Garoppolo a more successful draft pick than Manziel and Garoppolo has only started 2 games to this point. It would also be nice to weight the rounds a little bit. T-Rich at 1.01 was unsuccessful, but getting his production from the 5th or 6th would be somewhat successful, better than someone who washed out of the league in a few years. Oh wait... Does anyone have a good suggestion about how to determine the success of a draft pick? Or should I just be subjective?
  11. Gally, I'm aiming for rookie only drafts if possible. That would help the most people (and myself, selfishly). Scothawk, can you please send a link to the last couple rookie drafts? Maybe 5 years or so. However is easiest for you. One league would be a start but if you've got a couple, it could potentially even out the results more. I would love the pre-draft rookie draft, but it would be impossible to convince most of the people in my leagues to do that, so we can probably skip that one.
  12. We started this league last year with 48 teams. In year one, all 48 teams were on the same level. Going forward, it will be set up like the English Premier league. The 48 teams were split between three 16 team tiers based on their performance. At the end of every year, the four best teams from each tier will be promoted to the tier above and the four worst teams will be demoted to the tier below. We've got a couple openings from owners dropping out. We're also planning on adding another 16 team tier, to go from 48 to 64. Every year, we'll try to add another tier until either, the league decides it's large enough, or we hit the 96 team MFL limit. Check out the league here: http://www71.myfantasyleague.com/2016/home/79314#0 Logistics of adding a new tier: There's one copy of every player for each 16 teams. So every time we add another tier, we'll have a tier startup draft with the new teams selecting from (1) copy of all veterans and rookies. Once all drafts are completed, we'll incorporate the new tier into the existing league and everyone will be able to trade. Unfortunately for the owners of the new tier, the only fair way to add them is as the bottom tier. We're obviously looking for owners who are in it for the long haul. I don't need to spell this out for forward thinking owners though. If you put together a good team, it'll be easy to improve it and advance quickly. If you earn promotion in the first year, you'll be playing against 12 of the worst teams in the entire league, making your second promotion even easier. Your draft position will still be elevated compared to the other top teams in higher tiers because the draft order is set up by tier. If you don't earn promotion in the first year, the four best teams in your tier will be replaced by the four worst teams in the league and you're guaranteed a top 4 equivalent rookie draft pick. If you're impatient and don't want to work your way up through promotions every year, just win the FA Cup. The FA Cup is a tournament that takes place concurrently with the regular season. Every team plays each other, regardless of tier. The overall winner earns automatic promotion to the Premier League at the end of the year, regardless of what tier they're currently in. Last year I lost in the semifinals, not that I'm bitter... The specifics of the league: - Starting lineup: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 SuperFlex, 1 RB/WR/TE Flex, 1 DT, 2 DE, 3 LB, 2 CB, 1 S, 1 DFlex. - Scoring is PPR, TE premium (1.5 PPR), .25 point per carry, 4 point passing TDs and fairly even scoring for IDP. - 50 man rosters with 6 IR slots and a 6-player taxi squad, bumped up to 60 man rosters in the offseason. - $50 annual fee via LeagueSafe. Owners have to pay next year's fees if they trade away future first or second round draft picks. There are prizes for the winners of every tier but they're weighted towards the Premier League. Last year's winner took home $800. This year's Premier League winner will take home $1,000. If we get to 96 teams, the Premier league winner will take home $1,800. - It's a very active league with quite a bit of trading. There were over 400 trades last year between the startup draft and the regular season. We have a slack page for most league communication. - Blind bidding waivers $200 per year. - Draft order is set up by tier followed by potential points. The bottom tier gets the first 16 picks, in order by potential points. The Premier League gets the last 16 draft picks. - Comprehensive rules can be found here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1n2GkOE787LyjTlsrjgoh9pLGvfFY4urySv3YT7Jg0r8/edit?usp=sharing If you've read this far you're at least partially interested, let me know. Email me at glaser.ben@gmail.com. And let me know if you want to be in the new tier or if you're willing to take over an orphan. We'll have a dispersal draft for all orphans. We'll look to start the rookie draft and the tier startup draft in early May.
  13. Strange request. Anyone in a superflex, full-idp dynasty league that's been around for a few years. I'd love to look at a few years of rookie drafts to mine for data. Obviously willing to share whatever insights a spreadsheet shows me.
  14. Sean McDermott (former CAR DC) is the new HC in Buffalo. He's brought in Leslie Frazier (former BAL DB coach but also MIN HC) as the DC. Odds are, they are switching from a 3-4 to a 4-3. This means Jerry Hughes, Lorenzo Alexander and Shaq Lawson could all go from LBs to DEs. The real question will be at LB. Preston Brown, Zach Brown and Reggie Ragland could all be vying for two useful spots. Preston had a good year after a rough 2015. Zach had a huge year in place of Ragland, but he's a UFA so it'll be interesting to see if they bring him back. Ragland should be back to full strength by the start of the season. Wade Phillips (former DEN DC) signed on in LA. If they switch to a 3-4, like Denver ran, it could have some major ramifications. Aaron Donald could become a DE in a 3-4. He should still be highly productive, but it remains to be seen if he has the same level of value as he did as DT1. Robert Quinn would be the other big change here if he moves from DE to LB. Odds are, Alec Ogletree and Mark Barron will be the two ILBs as LA doesn't have any other notable LBs on the roster. Joe Woods (former DEN DB coach) will take over as the Denver DC. Vance Joseph (former MIA DC) was hired as head coach. Joseph ran a 4-3 in Miami but would anyone really try and change that defense? Joseph also got Woods the Denver DB's coach job under Kubiak. Matt Burke (former MIA LB coach) will be the new Miami DC so I wouldn't expect much change there. Jacksonville is retaining Todd Wash as their DC even though they fired Gus Bradley. Not much should change here. Washington is struggling to find their new DC. They've interviewed Mike Pettine (former CLE HC and BUF DC), Gus Bradley (former JAX HC and SEA DC), Rob Ryan (former BUF assistant and NO DC) and Greg Manusky (WAS OLB coach). Bradley should be their top choice but the position isn't the most coveted in the league. Most likely, they're sticking to a 3-4, especially if they go with Manusky. If they do move to a 4-3, some definite value would be generated. Ryan Kerrigan, Preston Smith and Trent Murphy could all become DEs. Murphy is a solid known commodity but Smith has a ton of potential. He led rookies in sacks in 2015 with 8, 2 more than Danielle Hunter. The Chargers are still looking for their DC as well. They've also interviewed Gus Bradley, but that's still up in the air (see below). If Bradley or another DC switch LAC over to a 4-3, it might make Joey Bosa safer. He played a lot of snaps with his hand up this year. It's a slightly risky situation if the Chargers stay in 3-4. Melvin Ingram is a UFA but if he resigns and switches to a DE, he would be very valuable. Their ILB situation was starting to shake itself out at the end of last year as Jatavis Brown was getting healthy, but it wouldn't be hard to imagine Brown as their Will and Denzel Perryman as their Mike. San Francisco is still looking for their entire coaching staff. The front runner for HC is Kyle Shanahan (Atlanta's OC). They have to wait until Atlanta is done for the season though. Josh McDaniels has made a good decision and decided to remain as the NE OC because SF has almost no talent and has fired 3 coaches in the last 3 years. They're also looking at Tom Cable (SEA O-line coach). I read that Gus Bradley is waiting until this decision is made because he'd prefer to work with his former colleague Cable. Bradley is the best DC candidate remaining so once SF picks a head coach, all the remaining cards should hopefully fall pretty quickly. The ramifications of Bradley or another DC switching SF to a 4-3 are hard to imagine. They've spent their last two 1st round draft picks on Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner, two 3-4 DEs. Conventional wisdom assumes they'd both slide inside and some combination of Aaron Lynch, Ahmad Brooks, Eli Harold and some draft picks in a deep Edge class would be the DEs. Navarro Bowman is the only ILB who played this year who's still under contract for next year, so even if they stay a 3-4, watch what they do in the draft this year. If they do switch to a 4-3, watch who resigns or gets drafted to potentially be the Will next year.