bostonfred

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bostonfred last won the day on September 12

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  1. Technically i think the steelers would have to offer him the tag again. If he skipped the season they might not want to pay him again.
  2. The steelers never led against the chiefs but they might have if they had bell, and they could have controlled the clock a lot more with a better running game. The browns game ended in a tie. Conner played well but it's not unrealistic to think bell would have helped them get a closer field goal attempt in the rain. The locker room was making public comments about bell, their best offensive player just said trade me, and Tomlin is putting out fires when he should be game planning. I can't say for certain they'd be 2-0 with bell but i can confidently say that this is hurting the team.
  3. That's true in the nfl, but we've seen players skip bowl games before going to the nfl. It's not completely off the table, i just don't think it's a risk bell or his agent can take.
  4. I don't think the logical thing is to not play. He's not doing a calculation of dollars per touch. He's just understandably trying to avoid going on the market with 400 touches in back years. Other agents would love to convince him to skip the playoffs, because the bogeyman of a holdout would increase tenfold if he did and still got a big contract afterwards. This would be an incredible precedent for them when bargaining for future clients and for the nflpa when bargaining to overhaul the franchise tag rules. But his agent, Adisa Bakari, knows that Bell's next contract not only represents millions of dollars of commission, but a huge turning point in his own career. If bell gets paid, other players looking down the barrel of the franchise tag will sign with him to credibly threaten to do the same thing. If bell doesn't get paid, this could crush his career. Bell is by far his biggest profile client. Holding out has a precedent. Teams won't like it but they wouldn't have liked paying a player with historic wear on his tires either. But doing unprecedented things that hurt your team to get more money - that's risky business. And it's not a risk Bakari or Bell can afford to take. The steelers can't mess around either. They can't rescind the tag, or suspend him, or act like he's the backup to Conner now because Conner is so much better. Pittsburgh is currently winless at 0-1-1 with a division tie and a conference loss against a likely playoff team. They finish the season with the Jaguars, Broncos, chargers, raiders, Patriots, saints and bengals. As much as they'd love to stick it to him, they badly need bell if they want to make the playoffs. And missing the playoffs would be an unmitigated disaster. Every good player would threaten holdout. The locker room is already a mess. Just a nightmare in so many ways. The players may be upset with him, but what are they going to do? By that point they'll need him as much as he needs them. So ultimately I see both sides day dreaming about doing terrible things to each other, but doing exactly what's expected. He'll show up week ten, make amends with his teammates as best he can, and get on with trying to make the playoffs as a team. The one thing that could change it is if the steelers go on a long undefeated streak and decide not to mess with the chemistry, or if they're out of the playoffs and don't need him for half a year. In the former case, bell might not come back as the starter, so there's no reason to skip the playoffs. In the latter he might not come back at all.
  5. @Chaka I'm not taking away carries. I'm rejecting the use of ypc alone with such a small sample size. Carson has had better results running the ball so far. The gap closed some this week. Penny caught 4 balls week 1 and none week 2 but he's lining up as a wr at times. Carson has earned the starting role. Penny has a high ceiling but isn't there yet. The seahawks have given Carson the start but given penny more carries than the starter. That may have been because of draft capital, but it may also have been strategic. The seahawks scored 3 points in the first 3 quarters with Carson in and they scored a touchdown the first drive they committed to penny. Penny carried the ball on almost every play that drive and it set up the play action fake for a touchdown. On the second drive they lined penny up wide and threw it to him. The pass was intercepted, but their intent was to use him as a legitimate feature back who can split out wide during that drive too. I don't consider penny a good blocker or bad blocker or good receiver or anything. I only know what the seahawks have done with him, and it's consistent with how high they took him in the draft. I think the purpose of an objective conversation is to say "the seahawks seem to be doing this and I think they will do that in the future", then I think that's good objective analysis. I don't think the purpose is to second guess them for not playing the guy i think is playing better unless i think that's predictive of future usage.
  6. Yes, it is a small sample size. The point I was making was that people said Carson outplayed penny this week. Or that penny was plodding. And they pointed to a difference in yards per carry on a small sample size. But penny's 3 best runs were better than Carson's 3 best - penny had runs of 10, 6 and 4 compared with Carson's 9, 4 and 4. And penny got hit behind the line of scrimmage twice as he was receiving the handoff, resulting in carries of 0 and minus one. So Carson's 6 carries for 24 and Penny's 10 for 30 look like they're a whole yard per carry different, but the reality is they both looked decent. Agreed. I liked him a lot as a sleeper last year and was bummed when he got hurt. Draft capital is definitely part of it. But it's also his ceiling. If I have two guys playing similarly right now but one has worked as hard as anyone to get there and the other is just getting started, I want to reward the hard worker, but I still want the higher ceiling guy to get reps so he can reach his potential. The team sees penny as a workhorse feature back - a guy who not only has the size to carry the load and the speed to hit the home run, but the receiving ability to get there. And they used him in two critical fourth quarter drives when they were trailing the bears, so the much discussed blocking issues apparently aren't a show stopper. Carson is trying to make the case that he can do those things, too. And maybe he'll succeed. But the team apparently thought penny had that potential and didn't think their current roster did, so it's a case he'll have to continue to make. The seahawks lost their first game and with Carson as the starter, they had 3 points through three quarters this week. Then they brought in penny and gave him the ball on 10 of the next 14 plays. Penny had more first downs than Carson, and they scored their first touchdown on a play action fake to penny. The bears intercepted a pass intended for penny when he was split out wide - you can make a case that that's bad for penny, but the idea that they can use him as a receiver like that in the first place is one of the things that gives penny that high ceiling. The drive penny came in unquestionably sparked an offense that had gone 3 and out repeatedly. Was it because penny was in? Because the defense was playing soft? Could Carson have done the same things? Should they have used Carson more in the first 3 quarters? Those are all fair questions. Saying that the seahawks hurt their chances of winning by bringing penny in, though, is not fair. They scored 14 of their 17 points with Carson on the bench.
  7. Penny got hit at the handoff twice when the defender broke through the line. Once for 0 yards and one for negative one. If Wilson doesn't hand him the ball on those plays he finishes with 8 for 31 instead of 10 for 30. You can't take plays away, but ypc in a small sample size is virtually meaningless.
  8. Carson's best runs were 9, 4 and 4 yards. Penny's best were 10, 6 and 4. Carson got them one first down, a 2 yard run on 2nd and 1 after he got 9 on his first carry of the game. Penny got them two - a 10 yard run was a 4 yard run after his own 6 yard run where he made a nice move and had to stretch for a first down. More importantly, Carson was in on no scoring drives Penny was in on their first td drive and the subsequent drive that ended with the interception. He carried the ball nine times in 14 plays on those two drives. The touchdown pass to Lockett was off a play action fake to penny. The interception was an underthrown pass to penny. Most importantly, the coaches just plain used penny in more fantasy friendly ways. Carson played rb and special teams. Penny played rb and wide receiver. Carson got spelled by penny Penny never got spelled by Carson It's not like either one played awesome, it was a tough d that was wrecking their line. But penny got several big votes of confidence from the coaches last night and was in the game when it was on the line. That's a big shift from two weeks ago.
  9. They played Chicago and Minnesota.
  10. What I see - The bears d was too good and the seahawks o line isn't. A week after facing the Broncos, we haven't seen much improvement from the o line but the are two of the top defenses in the nfl. Carson had one good 9 yard run on his first attempt then not much. They had a ton of 3 and outs and were trailing by two scores so they made the switch to penny. It went pretty well - he had a 10 yard, 6 yard and two 4 yard runs and with Carson who had a 9 and two 4s. There wasn't a huge difference except that penny got crushed in the backfield while taking a handoff twice, once for no gain and once for -1 yard. If you take out those two plays, which didn't happen on handoffs to Carson, his 8 for 31 would have looked almost identical to Carson's 6 for 24. Up to you whether that matters when comparing the two. Penny helped them get two first downs (a 10 yard run and back to back runs of 6 and 4) compared with one first down for Carson (a 9 yard run followed by a 2 yard run). Mostly schottenheimer only used them on first downs. It's embarrassingly predictable. Carson started and played most of the first half, penny took over in the second half and had 6 carries in a 10 play drive. The 10th play was a play action fake to penny that was a touchdown pass to Lockett. The next drive was 4 straight plays to penny. 3 runs and then a pass intended for him that got intercepted. Prosise and mike Davis barely played until the final drive in garbage time. I don't think penny has taken the starting job but I do think he's going to continue to have a major role. I think he played pretty well and if the bears hadn't picked off that pass, people might have said he was the spark that turned the game around. They were trailing 17-3 and he got 10 of 14 plays on two critical drives including one that led to a touchdown. I have about zero interest in Carson. I do have interest in penny going forward, because if he can take the 3 down role, he's a good enough receiver to be a rb1. He hasn't shown the yards per carry yet, but he's faced two tough defenses. I think he's a high upside buy low guy right now but he has zero chance of starting for me any time soon.
  11. Just to put things in context, here are the seahawks drives 1st drive 8 plays 1st down Carson 9 yards 2nd and 1Carson 2 yards 1st down Carson 2 yards 2nd and 8 Pass to penny incomplete 2nd and 4 penny 2 yards 2nd drive 4 plays 1st down Carson 4 yards Punt 3rd drive 3 plays 1st down Carson 4 yards Punt 4 th drive 3 plays 1st down Carson 3 yards Punt 5th drive 3 plays 2nd and 12 penny no gain Punt 6th drive 8 plays No run plays (started at 1:07 remaining in the half) Field goal, 10-3 bears at halftime 7th drive 3 plays No run plays 8th drive 3 plays 1st down pass incomplete to Carson Punt 9th drive 10 plays 1st down penny 10 yards 1st down penny 1 yard 1st down penny -1 yard 1st down penny 4 yards 2nd and 6 mike Davis -1 yard 1st down penny 3 yards 2nd and 7 play action to penny, touchdown pass to Lockett 10th drive 4 plays 1st down penny 6 yards 2nd and 4 penny 4 yards 1st down penny 1 yard 2nd and 9 pass intended for penny intercepted for a touchdown 11th drive 5 plays 2nd and 2 Mike Davis 1 yard 3rd and 1 mike Davis 3 yards 12th drive 11 plays 1st down pass to prosise 8 yards 1st down pass to prosise 6 yards 1st down pass to prosise 8 yards Touchdown pass to dissly
  12. The titans will be adding two stud offensive tackles and a quarterback in the coming weeks while other teams are getting injuries on defense. Better days ahead. But it won't look good the next couple weeks
  13. It makes sense for four reasons. One, it might actually matter. Maybe it's just hard to run as fast as you can, get hit by several huge dudes and get up and do it again within 45 seconds when it's hot. By the end of the game it's tough on the defense but at the start it might be harder for the runner. Two, maybe the weather doesn't matter, but coaches adjust their game plans because they believe the weather matters. Maybe some coaches adjust differently. Three, football is a war of attrition, and later in the season, defenses get banged up. It's easier to attack a bad linebacker who was promoted from the practice squad than the initial starting 11 of a good d. Offenses get banged up, too, but the offense can choose to run right more than left, or start their backup rb when their starter gets hurt. That's why guys like Jeremy hill emerge as second half monsters and then disappear the next year. Fourth, some teams or some players just quit. Or at least they don't play as hard. It's hard to be 2-7 and give your best effort in week 10. So some defenses are genuinely weaker in the second half.
  14. It's warm and defenses are at full strength. When it gets cold and defenses start taking injuries, things will level out. Last year after 3 or so weeks, Chris Thompson was the number one rb and tarik Cohen was top 10.