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bostonfred

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bostonfred last won the day on June 5

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  1. Well, if he put up those numbers they'd be top 10 running back numbers. Not just this season, top ten all time. That's better than Gurley's fully healthy pace. I don't think it's realistic to project anyone to put up that kind of production. Of course 6 games is a small sample size. In a 16 game season the chiefs could easily return 3 picks for touchdowns and his season averages would go down. You have to project some regression. But you can still use a sample size. You can project volume. Will he get 25 carries a game like he did vs indy? Probably not. Will he get zero carries week 1 like he did last year? Probably not. You can compare his performance from game to game. He consistently got double digit rushing attempts and close to 5 catches. Is that reasonable? His high water mark for rushing attempts was 25 and low was 10. His average was 13.8 in the 5 games he started 10, 10, 11, 13, and 25. The average is 13.8. Throw out the high and low numbers and he averages 12. The mean median and mode are all pretty similar. His high water mark for receptions was 7, and low was 1. His other games were 4, 5, 5 and 6. His average was 4.7. Take out the high and low and he averages 5.0. The mean, median and mode are really consistent. How did his numbers compare with Hunt? His per game averages were extremely similar. Slightly fewer rushing attempts, slightly better receiving/ scoring. It's not enough to say "he will always do exactly what hunt did", but it is a good sanity check that those numbers are sustainable. What kind of numbers should i expect? 13.8 carries is not an unreasonable number for a starting back. He rushed for well over 4.5 yards a carry, but on a small sample size. If he averages 13.8 carries a game, times 4.5 per carry, times 16 games - that's almost exactly 1000 yards rushing. Let's call the over/ under 941 or so. He had at least 4 receptions in every game except Oakland, and averaged 5 a game. Let's call the over/under 50. He averaged well over a touchdown a game, but let's be realistic. That pace isn't sustainable. I don't think you should project him for fewer than 10 touchdowns on the season, though, considering he had 10 in 6 games last year. I think an over/under of 941 rushing yards, 50 catches and 10 touchdowns seems reasonable. I am probably inclined to take the over on touchdowns. Ii might take the over on receiving and the under on rushing. But that's not the point. You know who had 941 rushing yards, 50 receptions and 10 touchdowns last year? David Johnson. Is there bust risk? Of course. But there's also a ton of touchdown upside, considering he had ten touchdowns in 6 games last year. He's one of about 15 guys i think could be a top 5 fantasy back this year - a list that includes guys like dalvin cook and Aaron Jones who have at least as much risk. I'll take as many guys from that list as i can.
  2. Williams played 4 of those teams - LAC, BAL, IND, NE. He had 20 receptions, 403 yards and 8 touchdowns in those 4 games, one of which he didn't even start. He had three touchdown in one quarter against the new England defense that held the rams out of the end zone the entire superbowl. I'm not suggesting that he'll average 5 catches, over 100 yards and 2 touchdowns against all of those tough defenses - just that he actually did average 5 catches, over 100 yards and 2 touchdowns against every one of them that he faced.
  3. Picks for me. I don't know where to rank Rodgers now but he's clearly not the top dynasty qb anymore and i could see someone preferring mahomes, luck, Watson, goff, Wentz, Wilson, cam, that Arizona rookie... a potential early 2020 first is great exit value imo.
  4. It really was. I think part of it is that he sucks at track though. Try pausing this after his first and second steps. https://youtu.be/EhlKQ121dNY He's still on his third step at the 1.00 second mark. It takes him almost 7 full steps and about 1.7 seconds to cross ten yards. He finishes the whole 40 in about 19 and a half steps. It's supposed to take about 17. Now watch this play. https://cdn.herosports.com/upload/files/2018/08/devin-singletary-3.gif It's like a totally different player. Look how much quicker those steps look. You can see the clock. He probably runs about 14 or 15 yards in this clip while changing direction with pads on in 2 seconds - you can see the clock change from 21 to 20 at the very start of the gif and from 19 to 18 as he crosses the goal line. More importantly, look at him from the 12 to the 2, because he's slowing up as he crosses the goal line. He clearly finishes that in under 2 full seconds - you can see it on the game clock. That's 10 yards if he's going in a straight line but he's not - he changes directions twice. He covers it in the same number of steps that it took him without pads, when he's running in a straight line. And it's not like he has built up speed - he starts the clip running inside then turns almost 90 degrees to cut around that mass of defenders. That's not to say this is a great example of track speed. It isn't. He's not really flying upfield in this clip, he's just going fast enough to make the play. But he seems to play faster than his 40 time.
  5. So is ajayi at a much lower price. He hurt his ACL in October so of course he couldn't pass a physical in the spring, but if an NFL team could choose between signing an injured ajayi or trading for an old McCoy, i could easily see them going that route
  6. I don't know if this belongs here but I don't know where else to put it
  7. I think there's a hundred percent chance that he will be part of the stat of 'average # of years in an NFL career'. (And about a 90 percent chance in a bad way.)
  8. I strongly prefer the Rodgers/ McKinnon 1.4 side but i can understand why someone would prefer Winston and Watkins. 1.4 is a quality pick this year but it's the only youth that team gets. I prefer that pick to the package of 1.11, 2.11 and ito, but I can imagine someone feeling differently. I like Rodgers over Winston, but not by that much. Winston is younger but doesn't have job security. But he's got a great situation and quietly had a big year last year when he played. I also personally like McKinnon over Watkins, but i see McKinnon as the clear favorite to start in sf and put up Shanahan rb1 numbers. I'm aware that's not a consensus opinion. Even if I'm right, he's 26 or 27 iirc. Watkins is still young enough to emerge and he's certainly in a good offense to do it but I'm throwing in the towel.
  9. Sure, but he wasn't a healthy scratch by accident. The coaches saw him suck in practice then watched him suck on the field. That practice suckage is a relevant part of the sample size. You have to add his practice suckage to his on field suckage to get his total suckage portfolio.
  10. Who rushed for more yards than Ronald Jones did in his final 3 games? A) peyton barber B) peyton manning C) Sean Payton D) bostonfred E) all of the above
  11. We probably wouldn't have gotten that awesome rams chiefs game. Two elite teams playing a non conference opponent with superbowl aspirations when else are you going to bench mahomes or goff? If you bench goff vs Oakland and mahomes vs Arizona, sure, you have a chance to win that game, but if you lose that game you're not guaranteed to win the big rams chiefs game and now you're down two out of conference games. And you still have to pick a second opponent to bench your qb. It would completely kill matchups we already only get to see every 4 years.
  12. Denise nickerson, who played Violet Beauregarde, passed away this week. I looked at her wikipedia page and it referred to her as a child actor. That seemed vaguely disrespectful to me, even though it's clearly what most people who Google her are thinking about when they searched for her. Like hey those last 40 years weren't so great but remember when she was a blueberry? Did she ever try to be an adult actress? Did she retire on that sweet supporting actress money? And then i realized it's none of my business, really. She did something cool. There's a wikipedia page about her. That's pretty cool. I don't have one. So i have decided to start referring to myself as bostonfred, child athlete.
  13. You know what would help a thread where people are getting too worked up anot politics? Maybe bring up religion. Good call, d-less.
  14. Out of curiosity, is anyone posting in this thread under 40?