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Everything posted by geoff8695

  1. I am not reay to jump back on the Forte bandwagon, just yet. But I can safely say that I didn't "sell high" when I included him in a package around week 6 - starting to regret it a bit. I think a lot of his problems had to do with the offense. Now that Cutler is playing better and the Bears are running the ball more, he has been an RB1. He is only in his 3rd year, is still young, and plays in an offense with solid potential that could last for some time. Every double digit point week moves me a bit closer to the bandwagon. I still worry about his ability to break tackles and move the pile, but, quite frankly, he is getting the job done. I don't see Chicago looking for a upgrade anytime soon.On the flip side, Mendenhall is slipping down my mental rankings. Like you have said, he is not a clear tier above the likes of Forte, like was the thought when his ADP was around 5-6(RB) this past year.Forte is a better RB than most give him credit for. He plays behind a poor offensive line, and last year he suffered leg/knee injuries but toughed it out and played through the injuries. That's why you didn't see him breaking tackles or using his quickness/speed to break off long runs last season. This year he's healthy and is doing both when the front seven of the defense isn't meeting him at the QB for the handoff. This offense and Forte's opportunities should only get better moving forward as Cutler and the offense continue to grow and improvements are made to the o-line.I honestly would take him over Mendenhall in any format, although I know that won't be a popular point of view...
  2. Im not so sure about the breakaway speed. Jonathan Stewart had as many 40+ yard runs last week as Mendenhall has had in his career. Im also not sure what you have seen that makes you think Mendenhall is a good pass catcher, but whatever it is, i havnt seen it.Mendenhall looked pretty good against the Jets this past weekend. Forte not so much last night. I just don't see the value of Forte that everyone speaks of. If he doesn't catch four or five passes you will basically get nothing out of him. Non-ppr he has close to no value and I would think many dynasty leagues are not ppr.Mendenahll scored and Forte didnt, other than that they had similar games.Mendenhall 17 carries for 100 yards(that includes the phantom yard he was given)Forte 17 carries for 92 yards and 1 reception for 6. Forte doesnt need to catch 4,5 passes to have a good game. He has only caught more than 3 passes 3 times this season, and is still ranked 13th in non-ppr leagues. Maybe the 13th ranked RB is "close to no value" in your leagues, but thats low end RB1, high end RB2 in my leagues, making him very valuable.Similar games? Maybe. But not similar opponents or a 20 point lead.I'll grant you that the 20 pt. lead is dissimilar.However, the Vikings have been a good run defense for a few seasons now and even in this disappointing season are still 8th best against the run giving up only 101.5 yds/game, while the NYJets are 4th best giving up only 92.7 yds/game. Therefore yes there are similarities in the opponents when it comes to running the football against them. However, when you are up big the other team knows you are going to run the football and try to shorten the football game, giving further advantage to the run defense of the Vikings...I know this won't be well received, but I would say that while Mendenhall is going to be valued much more highly, Forte actually gives you similar production for a fraction of the price...
  3. Cutler is doing a great job, as an NFL QB and as a fantasy QB, not much to really debate about it at this point. He's leading the offense, winning games, keeping the defense off the field, and putting up good stats. Ever since the Bears decided to tailor their offensive playcalling around actual personnel rostered, and stopped pretending they were the 1999 St.Louis Rams, Cutler has been one of the best QBs in the league. Only time will answer the arguments about his development and career path and whether or not Cutler is truly committed to making the necessary improvements to his game that will maximize his talents and propel him into the top 3-5 QBs in the NFL. Right now he doesn't have the surrounding talent, hasn't finished making all of the needed personal adjustments mechanically/footwork/etc., but he's also only 27 years old, has the best arm in the NFL, just punched his first playoff ticket as leader of the 10-4 NFC North division champs, and is only in his 1st season working with Mike Martz. I will be shocked if he doesn't continue to grow and get better and better, so that we can remind the switzs of the shark pool year after year how silly it is to make a negative decision about a talented player and then be stubborn/unwilling to re-assess your opinion as the stats/data/observations fail to support your initial conclusion. On a side note, Cutler is also the only QB to beat Matt Ryan at home in Atlanta. I know that's getting way ahead of myself and too carried away to assume the Bears will get that far, but that's the matchup I hope we get to see in the NFC Championship game, as it would be very entertaining IMO. The Bears are a team that relies upon their speed and a playoff road game down in Georgia and playing in a dome might actually be better for them than playing at home on a crappy field and in the elements.
  4. What top 15 running back does your statement NOT apply to? And what does "too talented" mean? More talented than the players producing more than him, who have also had big games? More talented than Peyton Hillis (why?), more talented than Michael Turner (why?), McCoy or Moreno? My point being, what value does the term "too talented" have, when there are 15 other players worthy of the title? Lastly, what does MJD's recent production have to do with Ray Rice? They are different players; Jones-Drew having a longer, more productive (Non-PPR) track record. Suggesting that one of Rice's seasons (one good, one great) is more indicative of his production moving forward than the other, is not the same as questioning MJD, who has yet to have a single digit TD season and gets the goal line carries in his offense.I don't presume to speak for SSOG, but my interpretation of this has to do with elite talent/longevity/etc.What I mean is all NFL RBs are very talented and are capable of putting up a good season. However, there are a handful of ELITE or STUD backs that are capable of putting up the kind of numbers that will win you championships, and are capable of doing so when confronted with poor situations, or when they are banged up, and are able to give you multiple seasons of winning production despite obstacles that would be insurmountable to average NFL talent. They are the creme de la creme of fantasy RBs. CJ2K, MJD, AP, Rice, Etc.On the other hand you have the Ryan Grants, Marion Barbers, Shonn Greenes, Pierre Thomas, Cedric Bensons's of the world who can give you solid RB production at some point in their careers, but aren't going to consistently give you several opportunities at such production, and don't have the additional level of talent that allows them to still produce such numbers in bad circumstances such as poor surrounding talent or being nicked up with nagging injuries.MJD is similar to Ray Rice in that both are actually fantastic receiving options who get a boost in PPR (although MJD's ability to rack up TDs makes him a top non-PPR back as well), and both are well rounded diminutive power rushers with enough shake and bake and speed to go the distance anytime they get into the 2nd level of the defense. Despite the fact that MJD's nose for the endzone protects him from losing much value, if you believe in Rice's all around ability as being above NFL average, then I believe SSOG is saying that Rice belongs in the handful of ELITE RBs category that MJD resides in, and that you shouldn't panic if Rice runs into a difficult stretch of games. In the end the cream will still rise to the top, and Rice's value isn't going to evaporate the way that an average NFL RB's value is prone to do.
  5. Please allow me to paraphrase for you Larry boy:"As a Cutler hater I'ld like to compare him to Tom Brady, while claiming I'm only doing so because Cutler supporters already do this. Although, these "nutty people" shall remain nameless and I will not be supplying any links. That's only because I actually just made it up to give me an excuse to create an argument that doesn't really exist... It's this little thing I do called "fishing""
  6. Something happened to the Martz offense over the last several weeks and particularly coming out of the week 8 bye.Martz's offense mysteriously morphed from the mad bomber 7 step drop and watch opposing defenses storm the pocket, into a balanced pro style offense. Now the Bears run > 50% of the time and utilize pass plays that cover up the oline's deficiencies by utilizing 3-5 step drops and moving the pocket to take advantage of Cutler's running/scrambling/improvising ability. I think someone flushed Martz's playbook down the drain... Now the Bears have all the benefit of a brilliant playcaller in Mike Martz, joined with an offensive scheme that actually fits the personnel on hand, rather than stubbornly paying homage to a Rams offense circa 1999-2001 that enjoyed HOF caliber talent at the skill positions and along the oline (and still gave up bone crunching abuse to the QB position!). Combine this new Martz offense with a great defense and special teams, and watch Cutler's winning % continue to rise. This Bears team is going to be trouble for the rest of the NFC if they succeed in making the playoffs. Not saying they're destined for Dallas, but in today's watered down NFL - a great defense + great special teams + good offense with an athletic strong armed QB in Jay Cutler is more than enough to give Chicago a great chance at a deep post-season run. I have a feeling this thread is going to get bumped a lot over the next two months...
  7. I don't want to get into a pissing match with you over Forte, but he has shown enough speed and elusiveness to break off long runs and receptions (including a nifty 61 yarder yesterday against the eagles). He may not be CJ4.24, ADP, :insert elite RB here: fast; but it's misleading to say that he isn't very good or doesn't break tackles. That's not his game. He's not a bruising power runner that relies on breaking tackles to get to the next level. And he has plenty of quickness/body control to make defenders miss when he's not being met at the handoff from QB. Unfortunately, the Bears oline has allowed DLinemen and LBs to do just that all too often over the past 2.5 seasons...Even so, Forte is currently tied for 11th in the NFL this season in runs over 20 yards (5 on the season including two over 60 yards), and he's got an 89 yard TD reception as well. He's not the "3 yards and a cloud of dust" plodder that some have tried to make him out to be. He's a RB that makes his living off of making guys miss, and his receiving ability is a tremendous asset that allows him to gets the ball in space where he can gash opposing defenses.I know you alluded to inconsistency as a problem with Forte and "the excuses" have already been set out before, so I don't mean to dwell on them. However, he was injured last season, and has been playing in poor offensive schemes and with a poor o-line since coming into the league. And although he is healthier this year, during the 1st half of the season he was under utilized by Martz's pass happy offensive system that demanded 7 step drops and an inordinate pass/run ratio (during the games in which Cutler was non-concussed). Since the bye week the Bears have adjusted and changed the offensive scheme to fit their personnel (including running the ball over 50% of the time and giving Cutler 3-5 step drops and a moving pocket to play to his athleticism), and under the new offensive scheme, Martz is proving to be a terrific play caller (despite many of the plays paying homage to the "greatest show on turf" being torn from his playbook by Lovie Smith and Mike Tice).Combine all of that with the Bears' defenseive return to elite status and I wouldn't be sleeping on Forte for the remainder of this season. He will be a RB2 that performs at RB1 levels with a guarantee of ~ 20 touches per game moving forward and will help fuel many a fantasy team's playoff run in 2010. Maybe that will open the door to your dreams of being able to pair Forte with a WR1 to obtain an elite RB during the offseason...
  8. Could you provide a link? I miss checking the Sons of the Tundra site to see your updates.+1
  9. I understand every dynasty league has its own valuations of the QB position, and certainly if you are in a large league, or a start 2 QB league that will drive up their value as well. So it's hard to know exactly how to value Sanchez or Stafford in YOUR league.However, if you have a "total rebuild" on your hands, "with holes everywhere in your roster", then I don't think you should be considering trading away ANY of those 1st rounders. It sounds like you'll need them...Have you tried offering a 2nd for Stafford or Sanchez? I'ld do that before I would consider giving up a 1st. Also, if you just can't help yourself, then at least float similar offers for a 'proven' QB and see if you can't get a better QB than Sanchez/Stafford if you're going to trade away a 1st rounder to get them anyways. You might be surprised at how much value 1st round picks hold especially in the weeks leading up to your rookie draft.
  10. I agree with this, and wouldn't be running out and selling the farm to acquire him or anything. His situation is one of the most unstable in the NFL, and he could lose his job for good with one bad game. I just think his situation and skillset are so unique that it provides a very intriguing possibility. I'm not betting on him to become a fixture for the next 2-3 years as a top 10 QB. However, I'm looking forward to seeing how this all plays out. Could be an amazing come back story given his talents and the 2nd chance he's being given right now.
  11. Don't get carried away.Vick is 30 years old. He appears to have his speed back, but his days as an elite runner are likely limited. Probably 2-3 more tops.That means he'll have to make much of his FF living with his arm, which might prove difficult for a guy with mediocre passing ability. His QB rating in his last three full seasons as a starter:2006 - 75.72005 - 73.12004 - 78.1Vick has never been a good passer. He has always been a mediocre passer with elite running ability. I'm not sure that's a recipe for long term success when you're talking about a 30 year old. Vick's main value is in the short term. If his legs hold up, he could be a top 10 FF QB for another year or two. Maybe a little longer. Beyond that, I wouldn't expect much. I certainly wouldn't move him into the 8-10 range in my dynasty QB rankings. Guys like Bradford, Ryan, Sanchez, Stafford, and Freeman are much more likely to be startable 4 years from now.Obviously a small sample size but his current QB rating is 105.5, his YPA is 7.9, and his completion % is 63.8%I'm not saying he will keep it up, but this is the best supporting cast he's ever played with and he may have matured as an NFL passer. In the 4 NFL seasons in which he was a full time starter in Atlanta, he found himself in a very different style of offense and he really hadn't reached his prime as a passer.
  12. Good luck with that!With what? With your ability to predict within 3-5% on odds of winning and within 10-15% of player production going forward. Sounds nice in theory though...Do you rank players before you do a draft? Ever hit it dead on? Will you still do it in the future? I don't have any problems with ranking players and taking into account future value for the purposes of trading. Given enough info on a player's talent, situation, track record, etc. I actually have a good feel for rankings/career path/shelf life. However, it sounds like you are saying that one must be able to fine tune their crystal ball within an extremely tight window before being able to consistently field a winning team. I'm not sure I agree with that.If you understand how to strategize using your leagues roster/starting requirements/scoring system. If you are always willing to explore trade options and maintain good will with league mates (keeping future doors open). If you are able to adapt to an ever changing fantasy league/NFL/the consequences of injuries,suspensions,and player drop offs, and maintain flexibility and adapt to situations as they develop. And if you follow simple and sound principles that are geared towards strengthening your team without selling out the future, then I believe anyone can build a contender. You will win some and you will lose some, that's just the way it goes because no one's crystal ball is perfect. However if you have a sound strategy, some patience, and a little luck then you can succeed through the ups and downs regardless of whether a particular trade fits into a tiny window of future predictive analysis.
  13. Good luck with that!With what? With your ability to predict within 3-5% on odds of winning and within 10-15% of player production going forward. Sounds nice in theory though...
  14. Evan Silva and I just had this conversation and moved him up the Rotoworld Draft Guide rankings.The one problem i see with Cooley is Fred Davis, he is the real deal.Well, i guess the other problem i have with Cooley now is his injury...tough break.(no pun intended)What injury?
  15. Leaving Cleveland, Ohio, to join an all-star, championship-caliber team in Miami is going to hurt his marketability? That's an interesting opinion.Unless he is willing to embark upon an anti-hero or villain role, I don't think you will see him salvage his previously wholesome image. A whole lot of fans (outside of Cleveland) just lost A LOT of respect for the way he handled this decision. Short of a multiple championships and a previously unseen killer instinct (Wade has it, Kobe has it, James not so much), I don't see his image ever regaining the heights it has just fallen from.
  16. Terrible marketing decision for James, although it should virtually guarantee him a title in the next 3-4 years. Nothing short of multiple championships can vindicate this choice or salvage his legacy. LBJ will now be the most villified player in the NBA (and perhaps in NBA history). Even though I fully expect the Heat to win a couple of championships, he will probably no longer be considered in the running for GOAT at the end of his career. Instead people will remember the failures in Cleveland and perception will be that he needed to follow Wade's lead to get a ring. In Cleveland, Chicago, or NY, James would have gotten undisputed top billing and not just been perceived as a member of a pre-arranged All-star team master-minded by the "Wade Summit". He will also take a significant marketing hit going forward (until/unless he wins a ring). Now his career will forever be remembered in two stages with the turning point being tonight's 60 minute debacle on ESPN. God help him if he and his pals can't handle the perception of being crowned paper champs without ever having set foot on the court, or if they have too much fun in the sun, and fail to win multiple titles. OTOH, Kobe Bryant is probably in a weight room or a gym right now, using this week's events as a catalyst to fuel him through the next few seasons with a single-minded purpose and desire of meeting and defeating Wade/LBJ & Co. to cement his place in NBA history and put himself unquestionably at MJ's level. Kobe has a similar insane competitive spirit that made Jordan unstoppable, and I'm confident that he wants nothing more in the world than an opportunity to beat the Heat and stake his claim as "king of the hill". I think it will be Kobe's mantra going forward.
  17. Half the first page is about Fuddruckers.he takes hamburgers much more seriously than thread reading.Can't believe I missed that.
  18. I take my hamburgers very seriously and can't believe that this is the first mention of Fuddruckers in this entire thread Fudruckers is MUCH better than either 5 Guys or Red Robin, and I've been to all 3 on multiple occasions. If you have a Fuddruckers in your neck of the woods and are still going to 5 Guys or Red Robin, then shame on you... ETA: link to website to find location nearest you YWIA
  19. Well that's kind of the point isn't it? If Peyton Manning weren't the QB and we weren't talking about a Colts offense that has been cemented in place and runs like a well oiled machine, then the opportunity being presented wouldn't be worth mentioning. We aren't talking about the 2nd coming of Jerry Rice here, but since we are talking about fantasy football then there is some present value as well as a good deal of potential value to be gained if one of these guys ever becomes the 2nd option in Manning's arsenal...
  20. The Garcon who lost the starting job is not even close to the Garcon of today. He is perhaps the most improved player in the league and he is faster than Gonzalez (especially in actual game speed). Garcon is much stronger too. His route running is eons better now than at the beginning of the season. He has good enough hands, but needs to focus more and that part of his game also improved as the season went on. Stats don't factor into my opinion. I just think Garcon right now is better than Gonzalez and he has just started to tap into his potential. That and his much better big play ability tells me Garcon starts next year.We could round and round on this. First off, there's a whole bunch of subjectivity in your post. Let me suggest some other stats that might want to be considered: Garcon - 47 receptions on 88 targets. Gonzalez had 57 receptions on 78 targets in 2008...and Marvin Harrison had 100 targets in 2008. Garcon had a catch% of 53.4% of targets - that was 79th amoung WRs in 2009. In 2008, Gonzo's catch % was 73.1% - top 5 of WRs with at least 30 receptions. Suggesting that Garcon's hands are "good enough" is being a little generous in my opinion. Most starting WRs in the league had better hands than he did in 2009. According to Profootball Focus (here) Garcon, in terms of their grading system was ranked 92nd in overall rating for WRs this past year. In 2008 Gonzo graded out in the top 50. Keep in mind both WRs were in their 2nd year at the time of those grades. Garcon had 4 TDs in 2009 - Gonzo had 4 TDs in 2008. The difference is that Harrison, Wayne and Clark were all still playing in 2008. Garcon only had Wayne and Clark to beat out for catches and TDs. Both are the same height, and virtually the same speed (at least prior to Gonzales' injury). Garcon is 17 lbs. heavier. Don't get me wrong. Garcon is developing into a nice WR - but to suggest that he will easily take over the starting spot from Gonzo next year might be overly optomistic. Again, I hold no dog in this fight (other than Manning) - so I couldn't care less who starts. I just calls 'em likes I see's 'em. You seem to be infatuated with Anthony Gonzalez's stellar performance and high catch % as a slot receiver for the Colts, and keep relying on his catch % as a kind of barometer for how effective Gonzo would be in making the transition to flanker. I covered a great deal of this ground already about 25 pages up thread, back in December.The gist of it is that Garcon is NOT seeking to take Gonzo's spot in the offense, but rather Harrison's. Yet you keep arguing that Garcon has to beat out Gonzo to take the outside WR role opposite Reggie Wayne. The only time they were competing to take over the WR2 position, a/k/a Marvin Harrison's old role as flanker, was back in training camp prior to the regular season. Gonzo had been ear-marked to take over the position, and Manning even worked privately with Gonzalez one-on-one in the offseason to speed up the learning curve, and better prepare Gonzo for the expected move going into 2009. However, Garcon became a 'fly in the ointment' for Gonzo when he showed up light years ahead of schedule (developmentally) and appeared ready to take on the flanker position way ahead of everyone's expectations or the Colts imagined time table. Suddenly at the eleventh hour in August of last year all bets were off and the situation became more fluid than anyone could ever have imagined. Gonzo may very well have held an upper hand in this battle in August of 2009, but it was clear that Garcon's skill set was better suited to the flanker position, and Gonzo's sudden injury settled the matter and cleared up any potential logjam at the flanker position. Since then Garcon has rewarded the Colts faith in him, and Collie has filled in admirably in Gonzalez's old role out of the slot. It is unlikely as well as unneccessary to continue the experiment of moving Gonzalez to the outside now that Garcon has shown so much ability and enjoyed a full season's worth of success on the outside (where his skills are best suited). The most logical thing for the Colts to do going forward is to allow Garcon to continue to grow and flourish in his role opposite Wayne on the outside. I would be happy to place a wager with you that this is how the Colts proceed in 2010 (barring any injury to Garcon). Part of the problem in you're analysis is an over reliance upon catch% as a barometer of what makes a good starting WR in the NFL. Don't get me wrong, it is important, but it loses its importance when you start comparing slot receivers to WRs who run deeper routes on the outside, and you're not really comparing 'apples to apples' when you compare Gonzalez's catch % to Garcon's. Additionally, Garcon essentially red-shirted his 1st season with the Colts, so while you're correct in saying this is his 2nd season in the NFL, you're also making an 'apples to oranges' comparison every time you try to equate Gonzo's 2nd season with Garcon's. For all intents and purposes this is Garcon's 1st season as a starter and he is playing a different position than Gonzalez (or Collie for that matter); and Garcon is doing a phenomenal job, making a pretty big transition to go from Div III to starting flanker for one of the NFL’s premier passing attacks led by a perfectionist at the top of his game in Peyton Manning. Rather than Garcon, if you are going to compare Gonzo's catch % to anyone's then you need to compare it with Collie's, since both player's relevant statistics were accumulated from the slot, rather than the flanker position. But back to catch % for a moment... Maybe your over reliance upon this stat explains the confusion here. If you could judge a WR simply by catch %, then Gonzo's one of the greatest of all time, and he must be better than future HOF'er Marvin Harrison. After all Gonzo's catch % of 71% in 2008 beats any of Harrison's that I can find (which was traditionally around 60%). From the linked post above: You should be comparing Garcon's numbers with Harrison's rather than Gonzo's, and I would say Garcon in his 1st season as a starter being around 53% is not a very big concern. Especially when you consider Harrison was closer to 60%, even in his prime. Give Garcon another year or two of seasoning and we will likely see improvement here, although it will never approach 70%, because it's production out of the flanker position rather than the slot.
  21. OK. My apologies then. Sometimes it's easy to misinterpret what someone has written. I thought you were weighing in on the side of Homer and the short-sighted "Ocho-Stinko" :points to 2008 stats: crowd. I read your "value is much higher to his owner than to others" comment as piggybacking on an earlier post, and thought you were affriming that point of view.No worries. But I stand by my statement - there's no way I could convince someone to trade me what he's worth. He's a plug-in-him-and-forget-it player who routinely makes a difference in my fantasy games. Other owners think of last year, his age, and his antics and don't want him. Fine with me.THIS
  22. OK. My apologies then. Sometimes it's easy to misinterpret what someone has written. I thought you were weighing in on the side of Homer and the short-sighted "Ocho-Stinko" :points to 2008 stats: crowd. I read your "value is much higher to his owner than to others" comment as piggybacking on an earlier post, and thought you were affriming that point of view.
  23. There's at least a dozen WRs I'ld take before him, and I wouldn't want to build a dynasty team around him, but regardless of his 'inconsistency', when all is said and done the guy can help you win your league. I own him in a dynasty league and he's an enormous value as my 3rd WR in that league; in another re-draft league that I alluded to in an earlier post, the owner that runs him out as his 2nd WR every week is running away with total points this season (despite the apparent albatross that 85 appears to be according to some around here). A lot of owners under valued him entering this season and those that capitalized on his return to meaningful production are laughing there way into the playoffs with him.It's fine to criticize those who overvalued him if you like, but to say that he has little value and that a fantasy team can't succeed with him while he puts up WR13 numbers thus far on the season, does not compute. Maybe you or someone else has valued him too highly as a #1 WR, but I don't know anyone doing that these days. Nor do know of anyone arguing that he's going to displace Reggie Wayne or Larry Fitzgerald as a top tier dynasty WR. It's just mind-boggling to me that he gets as much flak around here as he does while he continues to produce meaningful stats to the benefit of the Bengals offense and to fantasy owners who roster him as their 2nd or 3rd WR and got him as a great value allowing them to stock pile talent at other positions. He was the very definition of value this year. Color me officially shuked by all the hate.
  24. He was garbage the 3 games before that. He was garbage the whole season of 2008. His game last week was a wet dream for the rest of his fantasy existence, and just propping up the "on pace for 70 receiving yards a game WHOO HOOO crowd here.Two defenders just ran into each other trying to tackle D. Mason, and he stumbled to a 60+ yard TD. I'd bet 15 Mario Manningham futures that that will NEVER happen again!Good Grief! 2008 has already been discussed ad nauseam, and Chad is tracking similarly to his career averages, despite the '09 Bengals reliance upon defense and the running game... Have fun with your stinky bait, I'll look elsewhere for thoughtful discussions and well reasoned arguments.Good day, sir!