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About rschroeder1

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  1. One thing I can't figure out with Mack: as you said, when you look at the end of season numbers, the stats look fine. But having owned him in a keeper league the last few years, there are so many games of 8 carries, 35 yards. Part of this is assuredly game flow this past season with the loss of Andrew Luck. But Mack seems to be a bit boom or bust, unfortunately. That worries me with the addition of Taylor. That being said, I agree with you that Mack's ADP may make him a better target than Taylor. Anecdotally, I see a lot of Taylor hype right now.
  2. Perhaps I'm derailing the thread, but you have a fascinating definition of "misinformation." - You wrote: "It's possible it's like the NBA where so many athletes tested positive and had no symptoms." Yes, some NBA players were asymptomatic. Yes, we all saw the reports on the news of INDIVIDUAL players being asymptomatic. What does this mean for the whole? I asked if you have evidence to back up your point that "so many" NBA players were asymptomatic, and your response is that I'm the victim of misinformation? Who is the one making unsubstantiated claims? By all means, share the testing data from the 30 NBA teams. - The following medical journals have published early studies on organ damage: JAMA Cardiology, JAMA Neurology, Kidney International and the Journal of Thrombosis and Haemostasis. These are the ones I'm aware of; there may be others. But perhaps they too are subject to misinformation? I don't think any of this is off-topic. There's a very real possibility that some players may choose to sit out the season. Some may choose to leave mid-season. You can believe whatever you want. You can declare that the flu is more serious than COVID-19. Some NFL players may even believe that. Why would we apply your beliefs to the whole of the NFL? So yes, actual facts, actual data, actual trends and actual research are useful to inform what we think may happen this NFL season and how dynasty leagues are preparing for it.
  3. I don't know if you are a medical doctor or not, but there's a lot wrong about these claims. What rate of NBA athletes actually tested positive with no symptoms? Do you have data on this? Why should we assume that NBA players are a representative sample of anything? Young people are LESS LIKELY to experience severe illness. That's a much different statement than saying "young people are affected in a very minor way." CDC data indicates that people ages 18-49 represent about 20-25% of hospitalizations for COVID in a given week. Of course, it's possible people in this age group represent an outsize part of the population, too. Frankly, trying to crunch these numbers got to be too difficult. But if you have data to share, I'd be interested to see it. While players may be young and healthy, they do not live in a bubble, and I don't think there's a reasonable expectation that players are going to accept living in full-scale quarantine for 4-5 months. You have completely discounted the aspect that asymptomatic players pose a risk for family members. And let's not forget all the personnel who may not be 25 years old - coaches, trainers, officials, etc. Finally, I don't know if there's hard statistical evidence on this yet, but obviously there has been significant anecdotal evidence that indicates that having COVID symptoms is a lot worse than having the flu. I don't know what world you've been living in, but most young people who get the flu recover and move on. Most adults who get the flu recover and move on. COVID is causing residual health problems, even in young people. Anecdotally, I know of people in my circles who are in their 30s, active and healthy, with non-permanent but significant respiratory problems that lingered long after their influenza-like symptoms went away. Reports of lasting organ damage and inflammation have been well-documented. In fairness, we don't have a statistical look, but it's bizarre to just wave it away.
  4. I've had Mack as a keeper the last few years and have been pretty happy with it at the start of each season because of the strength of the Colts' offensive line and generally strong offense (Luck retirement was a pleasant surprise 😁). Mack is a bit of a confounding player. When I take some time to analyze end-of-season numbers, extrapolating to a 16 game season, he's right in the RB2 discussion. Somehow, he doesn't quite feel like it during the season. I feel like I've been valuing him based on the Colts O-line (not a bad thing) more than as an RB himself. I could see Mack having a really valuable fantasy season based on his ADP. Taylor seems to be all the rage, and even a 50/50 split with what that offense could be could yield strong RB2 territory.
  5. For transparency, Kupp is one of my keepers in a keep-4 league. I'm a believer in his talent, first and foremost. The situation this year deserves some analysis, after he became a decoy in the second half of 2019. I don't follow the Rams closely, but I would be surprised if they are back to the 2-3 TE sets they used in the latter stages of last year. Teams have the tape now. Of course, McVay may scheme up something else crazy, but I would be hard-pressed to see another radical scheme that doesn't involve Kupp. Maybe I'm a fanboy. With Goff's absurd contract, I imagine the Rams let Kupp walk in free agency. They did draft a WR this year, though I don't know much about that fellow.
  6. All fair points. I don't follow college football, so I can't offer anything on White and injury risk. I don't mean to come off as a Pace defender. But I'm just curious what team actually has a GM that fits the profile people seem to want here. I don't have any hard data, but I would guess that most GMs have misses more than hits in the first round. I would certainly agree that Pace has, at times, become too enamored with his guy. The Mitch situation I attribute more to large-scale organizational problems than Pace himself. Yes, it was his decision. But I was struck by the Tribune article from last year on how the Chiefs and Texans engaged in their draft processes. The Chiefs, for example, had everybody in the room - coaches, coordinators, scouts, executives - to make the decision on Mahomes. Pace, saddled with a John Fox regime he apparently couldn't get rid of until a certain point in time, didn't involve on-the-field offensive coaches in the decision-making.
  7. That's a fair argument, but I think you have to include the hits and the misses. Pace should get credit for trading up for Eddie Jackson, for example. He traded up for Nick Kwiatkowski in the 4th round, which turned out pretty well, I would say, and is going to possibly net a compensatory pick. He traded up for Anthony Miller; the jury is still out, but most of what I read seems to be positive on him.
  8. With all due respect, if the Bears were to fire Pace, I would be curious to know who should replace him that you believe would regularly draft star players in the first round. Is there any GM in the game who actually does this?
  9. I don't think that's really fair. Injuries to Kevin White weren't predictable. Floyd ended up being a very useful starter. Can you really ask for more from first round picks? Not everyone is going to pan out as a superstar.
  10. Ekeler's passing stats from last year seem utterly unsustainable to me. 108 targets and 92/993/8. A few things stick out: - Ekeler had four touchdown catches of 30 yards or more. No doubt part of this is that he's a really good running back, but I also tend to think there's a degree of randomness here that is going to be corrected. - In Tyrod Taylor's three seasons as a starter in Buffalo, his targets to RB/FB were 78, 89 and 110. The high mark for individual players was 77 for LeSean McCoy in 2017. On a different note, I'm curious what the Joshua Kelley draft pick means for Ekeler's usage. I honestly have no idea, but I found it a little odd that the Chargers used a fourth round pick (which I still consider to be useful draft capital) when they have Ekeler and Justin Jackson on the roster.
  11. Why exactly would it be better to have Dalton or Winston on a one year deal? Let's assume that Mitch is the back-up this year and doesn't play. The Bears would be entering 2021 with no quarterbacks under contract. Is that really a desirable situation to be in? I would think having a cost controlled QB under a team friendly contract would actually be something really desirable. Although it should be noted that Foles has an opt-out based on unknown performance levels after 2020 and 2021.
  12. In regard to when the virus started, I offer this open source project tracking the genetic mutations of the COVID-19 virus. Their work pegs the start date as early December or late November. I have no qualification to comment on the validity of this work, but I do find it to be highly interesting. Another report on the first confirmed community spread in Washington state, and the genomic sequencing of the virus, suggests the virus was spreading in the state in as early as mid-January. I understand your perspective from your anecdotal experiences. On a purely selfish level, I hope antibody testing becomes widely available at some point, or perhaps I get invited to a random study. As a healthy 34-year-old, I experienced the strangest illness this spring. I became ill on March 3 with a bad cold bordering on flu-like symptoms, but one night of sleep got rid of feeling ill. However, the cough stuck around for 6 weeks and has randomly returned here and there since then. It seems unlikely it was COVID, but it has been strange!
  13. One of the challenges is that the supply of test kits needs to increase, but the supply of trained lab technicians needs to also increase.
  14. It's reasonable to conclude that public transport access plays a role in the spread of the virus. But you're cherry-picking stats here to fit your argument. Other cities with heavy public transport use (Boston, Chicago, DC to name a few) haven't seen death rates anywhere near New York City. Likewise, New Orleans has one of the highest death rates per capita in the nation, yet public transportation is limited in that city. There are a number of factors that impact the death rate. To name a few: how early did a city/state begin social distancing? What is the hospital capacity of a locale? What percentage of its residents have chronic and severe illnesses or are immunocompromised? The timeline of when a locale goes through its peak matters as well. NYC was one of the first; lessons continue to be learned about how to care for patients. Once again, it gets back to the data. To be honest, my reply was moreso to the opinion that Georgia won't see a severe outbreak. I don't know if it will or won't, but we do know that Georgia has much more limited data to work with as of right now than other states. To make a prediction based on limited data is obviously the wrong way to go.
  15. These claims are simply not informed by the actual data. You're missing a key point here: there's a difference between the number of people who have tested positive and the actual number of people with the virus. The surest way to not find anyone with the virus is to not test them. Likewise, the more extensive testing is, two things are going to result A higher volume of people are going to test positive A more accurate picture of the infection rate and spread is going to emerge. For example, here's data as of 4/27. New York (state) Population: 19.45 million Total tests: 826,095 Rate of testing: 1 in 23 people tested Massachusetts Population: 6.98 million Total tests: 244,887 Rate of testing: 1 in 28 people tested Georgia Population: 10.62 million Total tests: 127,169 Rate of testing: 1 in 83 people tested Florida Population: 21.48 million Total tests: 356,463 Rate of testing: 1 in 60 people tested Now, I don't mean to say this is a hard and fast rule of East Coast vs. South. For example, Louisiana is testing 1 in 31 people, while Pennsylvania is testing 1 in 60 people. The point is, we will never know how bad the spread of the virus is in the present unless we test for it. Drawing conclusions based on poor data is not the way to go.