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Babooya

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About Babooya

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  1. Pretty sure low pedigree goes out the window when you play a pivotal role in a Super Bowl winning season. Yes, opportunity matters
  2. Bill isn’t getting Lawrence, the basement floor is 6 wins. OL holes and starting MLB out have been a yearly routine since the Jerod Mayo era
  3. At least it’s an ethos dude ...agreed on NE bad drafts. Vereen would have been pretty good if he could have stayed healthy. No matter what position you are you have to pick the right guys
  4. Definitely, I just didn’t see it acknowledged in the conclusion that the Jets ripped off Seattle. Teams are valuing those picks differently, which in typical markets allows arbitrage opportunity. Financial commitments to first rounders vs later are substantial and if variance is much higher in player outcome the value equations change. It’s kind of how Belicheck has always approached the draft historically. He’d rather more shots at hitting than a potential big swing and miss
  5. Not sure how to quantify it, but there is some percentage chance that an abbreviated or cancelled college football season will substantially impact the value of draft picks for 21, maybe 22 if you are seeing player who generally play 3 years lose a year of development and increased difficulty of scouting old tape
  6. John Brown gets no love. Go watch last season highlights. Turned in a remarkably consistent season for a speed guy. He runs great routes and is virtually uncoverable 1v1. Love him feasting on CB2’s
  7. Gambling 10m for 4-5m in upside. LeVeon should start an RB consulting agency. even if he bets on himself this year to be an UFA, the nfl will be coming off a bad financial year, cap and salary inflation has to take a hit. Take the 2 year deal that sets you for life and you get another bite of the apple on the next contract in your mid/late prime a year earlier
  8. Ya this is a one-off situation not comparable really to anything we’ve seen. If you’ve spent the carrying costs you aren’t going to take a discount on the precipice of a payout
  9. It’s good info as it naturally shows the tiers. Thanks for posting
  10. Guy doesn’t believe in himself is a red flag
  11. How bad did Vesey screw the pooch not signing with Nashville?
  12. Sure, just highlighting the fact his 2-3 window looks good. the coach/GM could get fired, the line could continue to suck and he ends up a jag RBBC. Definitely in the universe of potential results
  13. Year 0 or year 5 value is value. I look at Lindsay as the feature back in a run heavy scheme with a coach who wants to (and should) get him more passes in space. It will be year 3 of his rookie deal. Following year he will be in a contract year with at least 2x pro bowls possibly 3 in a hopefully ascending offensive situation. Year after that he will be trying to prove he earned his contract. That’s a pretty good 3 year window to invest in. Peak sell probably after his contract year
  14. Thought provoking. If I were to make a general comment, I think rookies are way overvalued across the board. If the hit rates for a WR drafted first or second at his position only has a 40% chance of a WR1 season. And in general besides generational talents are coin flips at best. Basically all rookies are being ranked as if they have already hit. Most wont Someone mentioned Chris Carson as an example. Phillip Lindsay goes for back to back 1k seasons and 2x pro bowls. He hit. That’s what you hope for. You probably have other reasons to rank him 30 DND, but it confuses me a bit i think if you are looking beyond 2-3 years ahead in dynasty you miss the forest for the trees. Things change way too quick. In a lot of situations take the points and run will maintain more team value than the scratch tickets Flip side is the different ways we evaluate risk/reward is what makes FF fun. There is no right way. You are managing variance and expected outcomes weighted in all sorts of different ways. thanks for the effort
  15. How do you figure. WR30. Decent chance he stays in Cle. 7th year coming up. Chance card not community chest. If I had the dyno 1.1 zero chance I trade it for Odell