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Everything posted by Babooya

  1. Could get whiplash in this thread... seems to me the Edwards hype is a product of the Ruggs fade. (One of the rookies will have good FF value as the teams WR1) Which was lazy analysis to begin with. Raghib Ismail, James Jett, and DHB have nothing to do with Ruggs. it’s the same lazy analysis that proved foolish last year on Hollywood Brown. (Some system they don’t use anymore isn’t a good fit) all that said I think sunday was them playing a bad defense and their running game isn’t going to be that good. It’s way too early to make conclusions on anyone. Edwards has a lot of talent and anyone can breakout. But I think the hype was based primarily on a bad assumption
  2. They really missed DHop drawing double teams to allow the speedsters vertical routes in single coverage. But Watson showed his value with a floor performance against a great team That still got 20pts
  3. Incompetence is subjective. League balance is subjective. That’s the same can of worms you were trying to avoid
  4. 10/10 you only veto for collusion. Collusion mandates expulsion.
  5. Fair enough point there is some value in a philosophical question of at what point is there too much depreciating bench value to warrant dumping for future year draft picks. with that said if you are in the position of having a full roster of all the best players, you should probably be trying to win for the next half decade or so. And we all know how messy FFE seasons can be. May have to dig deep and play your WR8 AR15 at some point, so don’t want to get too thin
  6. He was hesitant early in the year and too eager to take everything outside and break things open he was leaving lots of inside holes and yardage on the table. He improved as he settled in makes sense to me that he’d elicit wisdom from a player in an area he needs to continually develop. His inside running game looked to be the biggest area of improvement
  7. The guys ability to disproportionately accumulate assets would lean me towards just getting the best player in any deal. But like he says, the best WR in FF is just a small piece of his vast roster, so sure, trade him for a haul if the draft picks and upside intrigue you. It’s a nice position to be in
  8. Part of the reason you can do what you want is that your league isn’t competitive. So who cares. Trade him or don’t. Your team is stronger than a 4 teamer
  9. Pretty sure low pedigree goes out the window when you play a pivotal role in a Super Bowl winning season. Yes, opportunity matters
  10. Bill isn’t getting Lawrence, the basement floor is 6 wins. OL holes and starting MLB out have been a yearly routine since the Jerod Mayo era
  11. At least it’s an ethos dude ...agreed on NE bad drafts. Vereen would have been pretty good if he could have stayed healthy. No matter what position you are you have to pick the right guys
  12. Definitely, I just didn’t see it acknowledged in the conclusion that the Jets ripped off Seattle. Teams are valuing those picks differently, which in typical markets allows arbitrage opportunity. Financial commitments to first rounders vs later are substantial and if variance is much higher in player outcome the value equations change. It’s kind of how Belicheck has always approached the draft historically. He’d rather more shots at hitting than a potential big swing and miss
  13. Not sure how to quantify it, but there is some percentage chance that an abbreviated or cancelled college football season will substantially impact the value of draft picks for 21, maybe 22 if you are seeing player who generally play 3 years lose a year of development and increased difficulty of scouting old tape
  14. John Brown gets no love. Go watch last season highlights. Turned in a remarkably consistent season for a speed guy. He runs great routes and is virtually uncoverable 1v1. Love him feasting on CB2’s
  15. Gambling 10m for 4-5m in upside. LeVeon should start an RB consulting agency. even if he bets on himself this year to be an UFA, the nfl will be coming off a bad financial year, cap and salary inflation has to take a hit. Take the 2 year deal that sets you for life and you get another bite of the apple on the next contract in your mid/late prime a year earlier
  16. Ya this is a one-off situation not comparable really to anything we’ve seen. If you’ve spent the carrying costs you aren’t going to take a discount on the precipice of a payout
  17. It’s good info as it naturally shows the tiers. Thanks for posting
  18. Guy doesn’t believe in himself is a red flag
  19. Sure, just highlighting the fact his 2-3 window looks good. the coach/GM could get fired, the line could continue to suck and he ends up a jag RBBC. Definitely in the universe of potential results
  20. Year 0 or year 5 value is value. I look at Lindsay as the feature back in a run heavy scheme with a coach who wants to (and should) get him more passes in space. It will be year 3 of his rookie deal. Following year he will be in a contract year with at least 2x pro bowls possibly 3 in a hopefully ascending offensive situation. Year after that he will be trying to prove he earned his contract. That’s a pretty good 3 year window to invest in. Peak sell probably after his contract year
  21. Thought provoking. If I were to make a general comment, I think rookies are way overvalued across the board. If the hit rates for a WR drafted first or second at his position only has a 40% chance of a WR1 season. And in general besides generational talents are coin flips at best. Basically all rookies are being ranked as if they have already hit. Most wont Someone mentioned Chris Carson as an example. Phillip Lindsay goes for back to back 1k seasons and 2x pro bowls. He hit. That’s what you hope for. You probably have other reasons to rank him 30 DND, but it confuses me a bit i think if you are looking beyond 2-3 years ahead in dynasty you miss the forest for the trees. Things change way too quick. In a lot of situations take the points and run will maintain more team value than the scratch tickets Flip side is the different ways we evaluate risk/reward is what makes FF fun. There is no right way. You are managing variance and expected outcomes weighted in all sorts of different ways. thanks for the effort