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electric Ape

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  1. Exactly. It goes against my MO of targeting young ascending players, but I’m ending up with shares of McCoy in early drafts in part because he is going so cheap. Late in the draft you’re usually looking for upside and weirdly I think 31 year old McCoy with 2300+ career carries offers more upside than young guys like Donte Foreman and Duke Johnson who are getting drafted around him. I can’t argue with someone who wants no part of an older RB in a crowded backfield with stats in decline (and pretty lackluster 2018 tape), but there are scenarios where Buffalo is a better team and their o-line play is significantly better and a less banged up McCoy ends up being sneaky valuable. You’re gambling, but to me it’s a good gamble at ADP. You could almost draft any starting RB profitably as late as he’s going, and McCoy is better than just any RB, he’s only a season or so removed from elite play. Also bundled in with the McCoy lottery ticket is the chance McCoy and his big contract ends up getting released or traded into a better fantasy situation. Of course he could also end up in a worse situation but since you’re taking him late I think the fact this he is more likely to change teams than the average RB could be a good thing. If he got traded to Tampa Bay like Faust’s article speculates I imagine his fantasy owners would be pretty happy with their investment.
  2. That’s fair. For the record, I’ve understood your position that you always expected Cleveland to bring in another back. It just seemed weird that you wouldn’t adjust expectations even a little when they brought in a back like Hunt. It’s very unusual to have a young pro bowl RB who has led the NFL in rushing step in as a backup. I can’t imagine a model that wouldn’t change when such an unusual and unpredictable signing like that happens but we don’t need to keep going back and forth on that. Also, I never meant to suggest that you have to qualify your statements or projections as opinions. That said, there is a big difference between making a projection and revealing the process by which you reached that projection. Earlier you projected Chubb to have ~1500 yards and 10 TDs which seems totally reasonable. My objection was to your process, or at least the portions of it you shared with us because it seemed like you were projecting Chubb’s most likely volume level (65%) and then making statements based on only that one potential scenario. Typically if you want to make statements about the effect of a variable (like Hunt’s signing) you assess its impact across the whole range of potential outcomes, not just the one you see as most probable. If Chubb’s backup this year is a capable but average secondary back like CJ Anderson there are less scenarios that threaten Chubb’s value than when Hunt singed. I think even you would agree that if Hunt keeps his nose clean (far from a certainty) and hits the field week 10 the chances of “bad” scenarios like him achieving close to a 50/50 split with Chubb are higher than if the secondary back is CJ Anderson. And that is why I don’t think you can call Hunt’s signing “inconsequential.” Anyway, have a good weekend. And honestly I’ll be very happy if your Chubb predictions come true because as of now I have shares of Chubb and none of Hunt
  3. Us Hunt “bag holders” have been trying to exit this discussion for days but it’s hard to do that when you keep coming back to take shots that misrepresent our basic positions. For example, in the other Chubb thread you called me a Hunt “bag holder.” Why do you say that? Have I ever made a post about Hunt or his tape or his ability? Have I ever made a post about Chubb’s ability that you feel was unfair? I’ve done neither. The Hunt “bag holder” position from day 1 has only been that Hunt’s arrival in Cleveland is a negative factor in Chubb’s future outlook. It’s the most basic, common sense position ever and yet you keep raging against it like we're flat earthers. It’s also silly to gloat over links to fantasy articles like they’re important data points. That other Chubb thread is full of posts like “I think the Browns signed Hunt for reason X” or “I think the Browns plan for Chubb is Y.” Those posts are very low value because they’re off in the “feelings zone.” Talent evaluation and past volume are good tools to predict future fantasy scoring. Feelings and guesses about front office intentions are not. The funny thing about this discussion is that we all probably agree on Chubb’s talent evaluation. His tape is fantastic. The core disagreement centers a little bit around Hunt’s talent evaluation and mostly around volume projections and what range of outcomes need to be considered. You called the Hunt signing "inconsequential." Is it fair to say that your position is that Hunt’s addition will not have a negative effect on Chubb’s fantasy output at the end of this season and also in future seasons? If so let’s spare everyone the repeated back and forth and revisit this conversation later when we have data. I believe you have a flawed process but I also believe that results matter, Tim Hardaway had an ugly jump shot but he still scored 15,000 points. If Hunt isn’t a factor this year and then goes on to play elsewhere or isn’t a factor again in 2020 I’m cool coming back in the threads and acknowledging that you nailed your prediction. Does that work for you?
  4. Dude come on. Are you on a kamikaze mission to self-own yourself? Actuarial science, and I know this may sound shocking, is a science. In the future if this confuses you again reference the word “science” in its name
  5. As humans our receptiveness to information and criticism plays a huge role in our potential. If you’re at the gym doing squats and Arnold Schwarzenegger comes up and says “buddy your form is all wrong” you’re much better off thanking him and letting him show you his technique than you are getting defensive. Whether some of you understand it or not, the information that Coop and clopbeast and myself are trying to share with you is not a matter of opinion, it’s science. I keep hearing that insurance or poker aren’t fantasy football—and certainly they aren’t—but there are common best practices and techniques for predicting the likelihood of future events and they are shared among many disciplines. Ignore them to your own detriment. I realize that Coop or clop or myself are just anonymous voices on a messageboard and not hulking Austrian strongmen so it’s much easier to write us off or ignore us. If you feel that we aren’t good authorities on this I encourage you to do some research and to learn about how the best sports bettors achieve their advantages. In doing that you will see that they don’t ignore significant factors in their models and they account for many possible scenarios. The fish way to bet last year’s Superbowl was to say Rams vs. Pats, it has to be a shootout! and then stack a bunch of over bets/props on top of that supposition as if no other game script was possible. People who did that lost big. And really that approach isn’t too different than assuming only the 65% volume scenario for Chubb and then stacking your Hunt predictions on that sole outcome. The last thing that I feel like saying on this topic is that fantasy football can lull you into a false sense of confidence. In any PvP gambling game, game selection is the most important factor. So as long as the dudes in your league are making even bigger mistakes (and they usually do) you can afford to get pretty sloppy and still win. But it’s much harder to win at the higher or professional levels with bad habits. So if you love the game and aspire to keep moving up I highly recommend cleaning up your leaks and technical errors.
  6. Of course there is room for differing opinions and different methods of play in FF. But this discussion has now gotten long enough that two distinct methods of play have been described in detail, and one method is technically superior to the other. On the one hand, you have the FF Ninja / Miss Cleo approach where you close your eyes, try to see a game or games unfold as best as you can predict, and then make decisions using the single outcome you’ve imagined. On the other hand you have the Las Vegas approach where you create a model that accounts for many weighted scenarios and make decision that project as favorable against the full range of possible outcomes. You can use the Miss Cleo approach if you like, but I promise you that Las Vegas was built by swallowing up a whole lot of Miss Cleos. Back in 1876 cowboys used to play poker by saying, I put you on a pair of queens! Fast forward to today and good players put their opponents on a weighted range of hands. This is not a controversial advancement, it is universally known as a superior way to play poker. If you don’t like the car insurance analogy then use the poker one. You don’t want to be the last cowboy using yesterday’s methods of play when better methods are available to you.
  7. I will try to explain this using a different approach. Let’s say you just turned 16 and wanted to get drivers insurance. Imagine that there is a bad insurance company that determines a policy cost for you by either giving your case to actuary A who says I’ve looked over all of FF Ninja’s data and there is no way he is getting into any accidents, let’s write him a policy for $100, or actuary B who says hmmmm seems like this FF Ninja is going to have an accident this year but luckily it will only be a fender bender so we’ll charge him $1,500, or actuary C who says holy crap, this daredevil FF Ninja is going to total 3 Lamborghinis, we better charge him $999,000. That would be a silly way to write insurance right? A good company would plug all your stats into a model that weighs a wide range of probabilities and ultimately outputs a policy cost that allows for long term profit given the chance of all of the above scenarios happening. They might use some human intuition to shade the final price a bit one way or the other but it would only be a lesser factor. When you say Hunt’s signing is inconsequential because you only expected him to get 65% volume before and you still expect him to get 65% you are acting like the bad actuary in the above example who decides there will be one fender bender and then prices accordingly. 65% volume is just one possibility but you are making pronouncements as if it’s assured. The chances of some scenario that you haven’t accounted for—like Chubb starting the season with crazy high CMC-like volume but then losing significant volume to Hunt—must be factored in because the probability of those scenarios occurring is non-zero. Now, for example, let’s say we were offering fantasy players an insurance policy on Nick Chubb’s not reaching some milestone of future productivity (maybe him scoring 10 TDs in 2019 or 2020). When Hunt was signed the cost of that policy absolutely needs to increase. But based on your thinking and on being so locked in on the 65% scenario, you’re saying the signing is inconsequential and the price should stay the same. For the same reason that kind of thinking would drive an insurance company straight out of business, it isn’t good for fantasy football either.
  8. While I agree that FF Ninja appears much lower than the market on Hunt, I don’t think the problem with his position is mainly about talent evaluation, I think he is making more of a technical or fundamental error. For example, the fundamental theorem of poker is that every time you make a decision that’s different than what you’d make if you could see your opponent’s cards they gain and vice versa. Fantasy football is a noisier, more chaotic game and isn’t so much governed by one theorem as many. But certainly one of those theorems could be that, at any position, as the talent and skill of your fantasy player’s backup rises, so does the threat to his future volume. That isn’t a groundbreaking idea, it’s mostly just common sense. Adding a 23 year old pro bowl RB behind Chubb is a fundamentally bad development for Chubb’s value. It just is. And even if Kareem Hunt were to tear both of his Achilles heels this offseason and never play another snap, it still would have been a bad development because the signing created the possibility of a bunch of bad outcomes that were less possible before Hunt signed. When you tie your position to only one future outcome that you are certain will happen (saying Hunt’s signing will have zero consequences) instead of creating a weighted range of future possibilities, you expose major flaws in your game. Many people have tried to explain all of this to FF Ninja in various ways but he either has a gap in his technical game or there are ego reasons why he can’t admit his position was bad. And now of course he is resorting to all of worst messageboard tactics to defend an indefensible position: --Making up fake statistics (please show us the data behind your statement that 99% of these signings means the player is cheap insurance) --Professing to know with 100% clarity why the Browns signed Hunt and their future intentions for Hunt when this is unknowable to him --diverting the discussion with red herring arguments (who cares how old Marshall Faulk or Fred Taylor are that’s totally irrelevant to our discussion, our discussion was about usage rates) FF Ninja, I read your posts on here, they’re usually good. In this case though you’re wrong. Honestly why not just plant your flag on the idea that Chubb is a bulletproof talent who will still thrive even with greater threats to his volume or that Hunt is way overrated, those seem like interesting, bold takes already. There is no reason to push your positions so far that they can no longer end up being right.
  9. Mixon put up over 100 yards a game and 9 TDs last year playing on a bad, injured team with virtually no other offensive threats to divert defensive attention. To me his play and his tape were inspiring as hell. After an effort like that why would you expect an uninspiring season this year?
  10. There seems to be a lot of consensus here on Golladay being a sell high. I think that’s a totally reasonable opinion if you’re basing it on not liking the direction of Detroit’s offense or team in general or just feeling, like Dr Dan, that KG is too expensive right now. I’m surprised though to hear that some folks don’t like KG’s tape or feel that his upside is capped as a WR2. Just to offer a differing opinion, I think KG’s tape is freaking phenomenal. Dude is big and fast for his size with great hands, sick body control, and the ability to make top notch adjustments on the ball. His awareness around the sidelines is eerie at times it’s so good. I know he faded last season and is still a work in progress, but he had plenty of moments where he looked like a rare and special player. Golladay may be frustrating to own in the short term but to me he is probably is the least obvious “obvious sell-high” ever because of the possibly overlooked detail about him being really, really good at football.
  11. Wash your mouth out with soap, cloppbeast! This is a family messageboard, keep your disgusting ideas to yourself. You probably think personal massagers aren’t for a lady’s aching shoulders
  12. I’m seeing a whole lot of whack YPC discussion in this thread. Let me try to take CC’s excellent point a bit further. As humans it’s normal for us to want a tidy little metric that gives order to the chaos of a football season. The only problem with that is YPC sucks. It has insufficient stickiness or predictive value. Back in the 1960s they sold vibrating belts to people that didn’t feel like going to the gym, the idea being you could just sit there and let the belt jiggle all your fat away. If grinding football tape and trying to develop a superior understanding of context is the fantasy football version of going to the gym, using YPC is the equivalent of a vibrating belt machine, it’s lazy and it doesn’t work. So be aware that when you come on a messageboard saying YPC this and YPC that, you look like the fat dude at the gym telling skinny people how to get results.
  13. Josh Gordon admitted to drinking alcohol during pregame warmups during every game of his career prior to 2017. During one stretch he missed 51 of 56 games because of his addictions. Cole Beasley, a way inferior player, will make more money in 2019 than Gordon has made in his entire career. If you had a coworker who drank Cognac every day for breakfast, had to call in sick 51 weeks in a row, and was being way out paid by your company’s janitor, I doubt you’d describe him as managing his career “just fine.”
  14. Henry is a very good football player but he’s also a uniquely limited player. He has agility and quickness issues that are glaring. If we were to grade only the first 0.5 second of runs he’s one of the least effective backs in the league. I’ve also seen him display a lot of way below average pass blocking. On the flip side, he has incredible strengths. But he’s one of the players where the disconnect between the fantasy community and the NFL community’s evaluation of him is probably the highest. Fantasy players tend to zero in on the freakish size/speed metrics and the monstrous runs and ignore some of the coaching challenges of deploying a player with Henry’s limitations. And that leads to a second point. According to this message board, pretty much every NFL coaching staff is stupid. Some of them are, but not nearly as many as fantasy players want to believe. I think you’ll get better results if you first assume that the coaches have reasons behind their decisions and try hard to figure out what those reasons might be. The stupid coach explanation should only be last resort thinking when you’ve exhausted all other possibilities. In Henry’s case I think you have to ignore a lot of tape to completely blame his lack of usage on coaches. As far as 2019 goes, Henry profiles like a classic front runner. If the Titans are a good team and run plays are blocked cleanly he is the perfect back to amplify the results beyond what close to any other RB could deliver. There isn’t any RB in the draft or left in free agency that can threaten or come close to Henry’s effectiveness in “good” scenarios. On the other end of that spectrum, if the Titans struggle Henry has more downside than a normal top 20 RB and is vulnerable to getting outplayed by even a journeyman RB who plays better in the passing game and gets trapped in the backfield less.
  15. I’m in agreement with Rythmdoctor, Jello, and Dr. Dan. Inconsequential is the wrong word, there will be consequences. More talented backup RBs tend to get more carries than less talented backup RBs. How can you be so sure this won’t develop into a Marshall Fault + Steven Jackson or Fred Taylor + MJD type backfield? And can you be sure Cleveland won’t resign Hunt to a reasonable extension if they have him in the building and like him, RBs are cheap? There is a whole range of outcomes that can happen and a quite a few of those outcomes are very bad for Chubb. If the main pro-Chubb argument is that Chubb is so special that he’ll maintain high value despite Hunt I think that’s very reasonable. But calling Hunt’s presence inconsequential is weaksauce binary type thinking, it just isn’t true