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Cobbler1

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  1. Right but where you said if you don’t draft Kelce you are only disadvantaged to one team while being as good as or better than every other team is misleading. You would have an advantage over one team, a disadvantage over one team, (the Kelce team in each case), and be on equal footing with the other 10.
  2. If we’re considering all other TEs equal in this exercise then yes you’ll only be at a disadvantage to the Kelce owner but you’re in theory only better than 1 team (Kelce team) at RB/WR.
  3. I’ve had the same perception as well that when I draft a TE early I feel like I’m weaker at a bunch of other positions. But reality is that you’re only weaker at either RB1 or WR1 when compared to other teams depending what direction they went in the first round. And that should be offset by your edge at TE. An advantage is that if you end up weaker at wr for example it’s easier to chase talent there IMO (excluding super shallow leagues). In leagues with 6 or more bench spots I’m probably going to have 3 or 4 wrs on my bench if I have a legit starting TE so that’s 3-4 dart throws at improving my wrs or my flex. If I’m chasing TE late I might end up with 1 or 2 TE on my bench so it’s less dart throws hoping to find that diamond in the rough and it’s also less likely to help my flex. Does that make sense?
  4. I can understand the counter arguments against drafting Kelce in the first or early second. I’m not debating that. I’m debating his logic that Kelce is less likely to be the TE1 this year because he’s been the last 3 years and no one has ever done 4 straight. It’s akin to saying that the odds of flipping a coin on heads 4 times in a row are 1 in 16 after you’ve already hit heads 3 times in a row . Going into your 4th flip your odds are now 1 in 2 that the final outcome of your trial is 4 heads. The prior 3 flips don’t matter anymore, only the final one. We already have Kelce as TE1 3 times in row. The history of how hard that is doesn’t matter. Only what you think happens this year.
  5. A Straw Man? Whether you used the actual word “consistency” or not, the piece of your argument that I disagreed with was you saying that Kelce finishing te1 3 years in a row somehow makes it less likely that he’ll have a strong year this year. I’d call that history pretty consistent thus the use of my word to describe your argument. A longer version: You’re saying that since Kelce has been TE1 3 years in a row and historically no TE has ever done that 4 times in a row that him finishing TE1 this year is less likely. That’s a logical fallacy. The more difficult part of that equation is the part he’s already accomplished- finishing TE1 3 years in a row. In fact according to your numbers it’s only happened once ever. So it would be a sample size of exactly one when looking at doing it a 4th time in a row after having already done it 3 times. At this point he only has to finish TE1 this year to accomplish that and as the guy whose been TE1 3 years in a row, with no significant changes to his team situation he is the favorite to do it this year. History of a TE1 4-peat has no bearing on that.
  6. His consistency the last 3 years is a negative now because no one’s ever done it 4 times in a row? That seems odd to me.
  7. Yupppp I’ve been scooping him up anywhere in the 4th the past couple weeks. Wish I was grabbing him when he was going past pick 100 a couple months ago.
  8. You said “as a player if you’re not drafted in the top 10 picks, you want to be the first pick of the second round.” That’s just not true unless you have the benefit of knowing you’re going to be successful and earn a lucrative second contract. Whether these guys all think they’re studs or not, lots of NFL players drafted in the first 2 rounds, particularly outside the top 10, bust. Providing a few examples of 2nd round picks who are studs and have gotten or will be paid a year earlier than first round picks doesn’t change the mindset of 4 years ago when those players were drafted. The year Michael Thomas was drafted he got a 4 year 5 million dollar deal. The first pick of the second round got 4/6.6. Corey Coleman at number 15 overall got 4/11.6 (5th year option not excercised). I’m sure he thought he was going to be a stud too. But he wasn’t and if he got taken the first pick of the second round he’d have earned 5 million less in his career without a big second contract on the horizon. Without the benefit of hindsight it’d be foolish for any player to pass up 5 million extra on their first contract.
  9. You’re looking at it after the fact, after he’s already proven he’s a stud. Very doubtful he went into the draft hoping to be a second round pick rather than a mid first.
  10. They want to be second round picks over mid firsts? I doubt it.
  11. Right if you’re a bust you would have rather had the extra 4 million or so from your first contract than the 1 earlier year of freedom to seek a second contract.
  12. All those weddings for his daughters aren’t going to pay for themselves!
  13. Thanks for this. That’s a big difference.
  14. I don’t think we have much of a disagreement. I certainly agree that Zeke is one of the top backs in the league and has earned his money. I just disagree that his first contract screwed him. Because again he could have just as easily not played up to it and he wouldn’t have been giving back any of the almost 25 mill guaranteed if he couldn’t hang in the NFL. That’s the nature of contracts when you’re getting a somewhat unknown quantity. The saving wear and tear on the body thing is a whole different economic argument to me and if Zeke or Melvin think it’s the wisest thing to sit out then so be it. I do wonder how that conversation goes though. Does he say look guys I’ve taken a ton of touches the last 5 years my body could fall apart any day now so I really need you to invest in me long term NOW?