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Gr00vus

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  1. I haven't sent my mail ballot in because I'm voting in person. In CA (not a key state) they sent everyone a mail in ballot (without having to request it). I don't know if other states did similar. If so, this metric might not mean much.
  2. U.S. Supreme Court upholds North Carolina's absentee ballot deadline extension. Could be a long couple of weeks ahead.
  3. The potential revenue stream / model is the same. What's changed is that people realized you could harness that revenue stream by focusing on partisan political content. Limbaugh, Ailes, etc. really pioneered a new kind of media industry that's taken off. You didn't have things like MSNBC or OAN 40 years ago. They've used politics to create captive media audiences (which they profit richly from). That's what's changed.
  4. Basically. Entire business models for national companies are formulated on keeping their clientele permanently distracted, fearful, outraged based on targeted partisan content.
  5. Yep. That's why I'm saying, if he somehow gets to 46% the next few days (not that it's likely, though he did just gain 2 points in 8 days), I think we'll have President Trump for another 4 years. The 2 point move in 8 days is disturbing in its own right.
  6. In other news, Trump's 538 aggregate approval rating among likely voters is 44.4% - up 2 full points from 8 days ago. If it goes up another point and a half prior to election day, I'll be expecting a Trump 2nd term.
  7. That one poll moved 538's Ohio forecast from 59-41 Trump to 50-50. Seems sketchy. I guess that's another side effect of the sparsity of quality polling in Ohio. Hopefully we get more quality polls for Ohio in the next few days.
  8. We haven't talked about Ohio much here. That's a surprising result. I find it hard to believe.
  9. A problem with our modern day divisiveness is that people are making money off keeping folks divided to an extent we've never seen before. There's no incentive for them to stop doing that at this time.
  10. Record setting growth numbers out today. Grain of salt obviously, but still.
  11. No, I think they're actually trying to adjust to be as accurate as they can. It's not like they're coming up with 80/20 or something. It's tough when 1% means so much, we want to ding them for not getting it exactly right. But if the actual results are within their margin of error, they've done their job. We'll see. I think it unlikely everyone is way off, and there's a solid consensus happening. I think we'll be seeing more state focused in the next few days. It'll be interesting.
  12. Going with a higher percentage of unaffiliated respondents doesn't favor Democrats, as there are about 7.8% more registered Democrats than Republicans in the state. That works out to 47% D, 39% R, 14% other. The poll sampled 42% D, 41%R, 17% other. That seems more like a Republican lean than a Democrat lean to me. I think this indicates they're trying to correct for the "shy Trump voter" through reducing the Democrat representation in the poll. Also note that the poll is sampling likely voters - the affiliation distribution of likely voters may be different than the overall voter population. We don't know if they took a higher percentage of respondents from Philadelphia than justified based on demographics of the state.
  13. Multiple Pennsylvania polls came out yesterday and today showing Biden up 5 or 6.
  14. Tucker don't lose that paper You don't want to smear nobody else Send it off in a letter to yourself....