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About TheWinz

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  1. I love this list, and have been touting some of these same players (Barber, Lockett, and Winston). Here are a few more of mine, using the same FF Calc ADP: Latavius Murray (7.08) - He has essentially taken over Ingram's role, and I don't see him as a downgrade. Devin Funchess (12.05) - Some have knocked on him that he puts up TE-like stats, but I will gladly take a 12th rounder with the TD potential he offers.
  2. Hey, don't be knocking my Peyton Barber! RB18 or higher this year... mark it down
  3. In his first 4 years, he finished QB22, QB13, QB17, and QB26. In his 27 starts during his first 2 seasons, he averaged 231 passing yards, 1.7 passing TD's, and .7 INT's. In his 28 starts during the last 2 seasons, he averaged 206 passing yards, .86 passing TD's, and .82 INT's. Those numbers suggest he is regressing rather than progressing. For a mobile QB who needs rushing stats to bolster his ranking, he has yet to play 16 games. And for those that say his per game stats make him better than his final rank, the fact is he did finish with those ranks, and he did miss games. A quick check showed that nearly half of all starting QB's over the last 4 yrs have started all 16 games, and that number would be even higher if you factor in healthy guys resting for the playoffs. No matter how you slice it, he is not a good passing QB on a run-oriented team, and that combo does not make for FF excellence.
  4. The first thing that jumped out at me was finishing QB11 with 727 pass attempts - that is friggin nuts! The second thing I noticed was that he never finished higher than his pass attempt ranking - that is very inefficient. You kind of expect that with non-running QB's, but even a statue like Rivers has finished higher than his attempts.
  5. I disagree with your disagreement. First, to say he was really a RB2 because he remained healthy makes no sense. The fact is, he had 300+ touches and 10 TD's. Only CMC, Saquon, and Gurley can say the same. Second, I would certainly argue that 2018 was his floor. How could it get any lower? ARI finished dead last in both rushing and passing efficiency. Their 902 offensive plays in 2018 was 31st, ahead of only MIA. The only way he finishes outside the top 10 is injury, and besides his hand, he has been quite healthy. Let me say this though - I am not projecting Kyler to have a 4000/30 season like some others in here, but he will take more focus off DJ than Rosen could. I will be shocked if DJ's YPC does not get back into the 4's.
  6. One hit wonder? - In his rookie season, he totaled 1038 yards & 12 TD's, with 4.6 YPC, good enough for RB8 (ahead of another rookie named Todd Gurley, who had 104 more carries) - In year two, he totaled 1980 yards & 17 TD's, with a 4.2 YPC, and finished as RB1 (ahead of another sophomore named Todd Gurley, who had 7 more carries and a 3.2 YPC) - In year three, he played less than 3 quarters of 1 game, and still totaled 91 yards and 6 catches - In year four, he totaled 1387 yards & 10 TD's, with a 3.6 YPC, good enough for RB9 The only outlier stat that stands out is his 3.6 YPC from last year, but with a bottom of the barrel OL, he was screwed from the start. Josh Rosen wasn't scaring anyone. Do you not consider his rookie season good?
  7. I think we are forgetting that Keke couldn't stay healthy either. He actually missed more games than Fuller. At least in redraft you can drop a guy who goes on IR. With Keke, his hamstring injury kept you guessing all year long. Nuke started all 16 games, but no other WR started more than 7. They had to bring in Demaryius to fill the void, and even he couldn't finish the season healthy. As for the target opportunity, 118 went to whoever the WR behind Nuke was each week. My concern for Keke is that he and Fuller will alternate the targets when both are healthy. FTR, I will take a healthy Fuller over a healthy Keke, so let's see how healed Fuller's ACL is in preseason.
  8. Agreed, but I have him firmly entrenched as my #2 behind Saquon and ahead of CMC/Kamara. I actually have him closer to Saquon than the other two, so his week 14 bye just solidifies my choice of Saquon as the top dog.
  9. My main league offers a bye in week 14 to the top 2 teams, but even so, I wouldn't change my rankings based on 1 game.
  10. The ARI offense in 2018 was soooo bad... how bad was it? - 225 total points - 32nd - 2523 passing yards (32nd) & 4.6 passing yards per attempt (32nd) -1342 rushing yards (32nd) & 3.8 rushing yards per attempt (32nd) So, not only did the Cards have the least passing yards, they were also the least efficient. They also had the least rushing yards, and were the least efficient. The last time that happened was in 1977, to the lowly expansion team, the Bucs. In that season, the QB's combined for 3 TD's and 30 INT's, their top RB had 436 rushing yards, and their top WR had 35 catches. Their entire offense accounted for 7 TD's! The following year, the Bucs took the 1st QB in the draft - Doug Williams. The Bucs did better their record from 2-12 to 5-11, but they once again finished dead last in passing yards and yards per attempt. Fast forward to 2019 and Kyler Murray. While I have no doubt he has the skills to become an elite QB in the NFL, to project him as a QB1 in year one is fantasy. His WR corps is comprised of Methuselah and very hopeful youngsters, and the TE's are underwhelming. He does have a safety valve in David Johnson, and I fully expect DJ to challenge for the league lead in RB catches. I see good times ahead for Kyler and his trio of promising WR's, but there will be growing pains in 2019. A great dynasty QB, but a QB2 in redraft. And for those projecting 40 TD's, the only way he nears that is if he gets about 15 on the ground.
  11. I put no stock in the "only small backs thrive in NO" theory. Murray is going to prove he's every bit a great compliment to Kamara than Ingram was.
  12. Poor Rojo. He sucked so bad last year, even his own thread isn't about him anymore.
  13. I totally agree. For 2018, he was value in redraft, and will be the same in 2019. He may even hold value in 2020, depending on his situation, but he is not a dynasty prospect. I tell ya what though - if he is $8 again in the subscriber contest, he will be on my roster once again.
  14. So, he was a high end RB3 in standard, and a mid RB3 in PPR, but there is no reason to invest in him as a RB4? I don't get it. I am not saying he is great, or even very good, but compared to the other TB RB's for the past 3 yrs, he is efficient. Doug Martin only averaged 2.9 YPC on 282 carries. Perhaps Peyton's stats aren't a true measure of his talent. Until Rojo passes him, Barber will continue to get enough volume to be a RB3.
  15. 6 weeks later, the consensus top 4 remains, and many would say they have distanced themselves from the next pack of RB's. So, I will do what @TripItUp wanted all along, instead of torturing him like so many others 1A - Saquon Barkley - threat for near 400 touches, of the other 3, only Zeke can compete with that 1B - Ezekiel Elliott - volume is guaranteed, final standing will be determined by who gets more TD's 3A - CMC - can he be used any more than last year? 3B - Alvin Kamara - lowest volume of the top 4, he would need to outdistance all others in TD's to finish on top