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Don Hutson

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  1. I like playing the waiver wire. You have to cut players to do it. So I intentionally draft several high risk/high reward flyers who I can cut without much worry. Waller has an 16th round adp. If you can't cut the player you drafted in the 16th round then who can you cut? Players who are going to have a breakout season will usually do well in the first game of the season. Players who receive a lot of offseason chatter but do bupkis in the first game of the season usually amount to nothing. It's not a foolproof strategy. It's just a better strategy than the alternative.
  2. I've been snagging Waller as my second tight end in leagues where Chris Herndon is already gone. Both are risky but have high ceilings. Waller is a player who I'll have on a very short leash. If he only gets a catch or two in the first game, I'll cut him. Either all this preseason hoopla is true or it's not. I like drafting risky players with high ceilings who I can cut after the first week or two if they don't immediately pan out.
  3. If this league is important, why not have a friend come over and do the Dominator for you? Then you can focus on the website and a simple cheat sheet.
  4. McCaffrey had 58 fantasy points on 3rd downs and 323.3 points on 1st and 2nd downs. Barkley had 50.7 fantasy points on 3rd downs and 323 fantasy points on 1st and 2nd downs. Zeke had 68.4 fantasy points on 3rd downs and 261.9 fantasy points on 1st and 2nd downs. Gurley had 34 fantasy points on 3rd downs and 321 fantasy points on 1st and 2nd downs. Kamara had 68 fantasy points on 3rd downs 233.1 fantasy points on 1st and 2nd downs. Collectively that's 279.1 fantasy points on 3rd downs of a total of 1741.5 fantasy points. So that is 16% of their fantasy points coming on 3rd downs. And the 16% figure is a little skewed because Kamara's stats were slanted the most toward 3rd down points but he wasn't a 3-down back. He played 62% of snaps and Mark Ingram had a total of 12.7 fantasy points on 3rd downs. Kamara was the 3rd down back but lost a lot of early snaps to Ingram (Ingram had 33% of total offensive snaps). And Kerryon not being a "3-down back" wouldn't mean that he never played on 3rd downs. So at most, he would probably lose about 10% of his fantasy points by losing snaps to a 3rd down specialist. Not a big deal. Losing 40% of total snaps to CJ Anderson would have a much greater impact on Kerryon's fantasy points. But maybe he'll lose 40% of total snaps to CJ and 10% of snaps to a 3rd down specialist. Kerryon getting 50% or less of offensive snaps is a definite possibility.
  5. Running backs get few stats on 3rd down. 3-down backs get the most points because they get all of the 1st and 2nd down snaps. Gurley had 321 fantasy points on 1st and 2nd downs last year. He had 34 fantasy points on 3rd downs. Gurley only had 4 receptions for 20 yards on 3rd downs. CJ is a good power rusher and a bad receiver. PFF gave him the 7th highest overall grade for a running back in 2017. Last year, he was a very effective rusher for the Rams with a PFF run grade of 78.1. Most coaches want their lead back to have receiving abilities so Anderson hasn't garnered much interest from teams to be a lead back. But some, like Belichick, don't care. Nobody knows what Patricia wants but the fact that they signed Blount last year and CJ this year might indicate that he believes in Belichick's method of a running back division of labor. The apple doesn't fall far from the tree. Fantasy owners' belief that Kerryon will be a workhorse is based on virtually nothing.
  6. Being a "3-down back" is almost irrelevant. 3rd downs produce few statistics for running backs. 3rd and short often nets a running back a yard or two and a pile of dust. And it causes a lot of wear and tear on the running back. 3rd and long produces a lot of pass blocking which creates no stats but also puts wear and tear on the running back. In today's NFL, running backs get by far most of their receptions on 1st and 2nd downs. With Kerryon's delicate body, he is better off not playing rough and tumble 3rd downs. And it's completely possible to get workhorse numbers playing solely on early downs. The biggest obstacle to Kerryon getting workhorse numbers isn't if he plays 3rd downs but if CJ Anderson gets a lot of the early down snaps. Fantasy owners might think that CJ Anderson is junk but he's not. He is a very effective power runner. Matt Patricia learned under Belichick who loves early down pounders. Power runners force defenses to play 8-man fronts and they dish out punishment on defenders softening them up. These are benefits that don't show up in the running back's stats. Last year the Lions signed Blount and this year they signed Anderson. They may very well be intending on giving CJ Anderson 40% of snaps. There is little reason to have confidence that Kerryon will be a workhorse. But fantasy footballers love to believe that a running back who had a high ypc one season will automatically get their role greatly expanded the next season. There are a lot of factors other than ypc that goes into a coach deciding how many snaps a running back will receive. This is something that fantasy owners are horrible at understanding. If CJ does get a lot of snaps, we're going to have to listen to all the Kerryon owners cry and whine about how Patricia is an idiot and Kerryon is getting the shaft. Some fantasy owners never learn to accept that real football is different than fantasy football. The one thing working in Kerryon's favor is that Patricia could potentially get fired after just 2 years. This means that he will be willing to risk injury to Kerryon if he believes it gives them the best chance of winning in the short term.
  7. Also, when a defense is set up to take away the edge from a fast, running quarterback, they are also in perfect position to tackle a running back who gets a screen pass.
  8. LeBron James should switch from power forward to wide receiver. Or tight end. Or defensive end.
  9. I think Anarchy needs to do updates on his team throughout the season. We can vicariously experience his triumph over evil.
  10. Hilliard is also probably the best bet on that list to get 10 fantasy points per game even with a healthy Chubb. Chubb isn't a good receiver or good at pass protection. Hilliard getting 30%-40% of snaps with 3-5 receptions per game is realistic.
  11. Pollard is a definite pickup until Zeke returns. Pollard might be a worthwhile hold even after Zeke returns.
  12. Having Josh Johnson, Colt McCoy, and Dirty Sanchez at quarterback and an offensive line riddled with injuries probably had a lot to do with Peterson's second half decline. But one reason for optimism for Guice is that Gruden won't hesitate to bench Peterson if he isn't producing. Gruden is fighting for his job and isn't going to worry about upsetting Peterson. Unfortunately, there aren't too many running backs in the NFL who can produce on a horrible offensive with an inept offensive line.