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happy_donut

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About happy_donut

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  1. How would you rank those guys against the second tier QB's from this year's draft? Right now I like Tanehill better than Wilson, and Wilson better than Weeden, but I'm starting to think Wilson might be the best of the bunch. I would definitely say Wilson has the best supporting cast right now and could shine early. Long term might be a different story.
  2. Question for the stat heads. I'm terrible with stats, so I thought this offseason I'd try and study up a bit. I know it's not the end-all, be-all of evaluation, but frankly I'm terrible at stats and looking for any way to improve my game. Any books, primers, etc. that you've got in your toolbox and would like to share? I'm looking for a general stats book, but anything FF related to stats would be appreciated. TIA.
  3. What? Wasn't he one of the most promising RB's? I think you might be confused... (or is it me?)Dated Sept. 20, 2007http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...t&p=7379523 Not much, if any, hype regarding Stewart at that date in here IIRC. I don't think I am nor was confused....... Right above yours (about 30 posts up):http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...t&p=7378695
  4. Very interesting, and I can understand why you reel the instincts. Are there other players you've held yourself in check for, publicly? I'm trying to guess from your writings who else they'd be, Ryan higher than top 5? Fitz maybe in a tier by himself? LDT lower than RB23? I know your leaguemates probably read this thread, so certainly respect you not answering here. However, should you not have any compunctions against speaking freely here, I'd love to hear some real "crazy talk". Harvin #2 rookie? Great! Tell me more. It really has nothing to do with leaguemates seeing it. I've come to grips with that. I just think it's borderline irresponsible to put out public rankings that push expert opinion, scouting, trends, mathematical analysis and collected wisdom to the side in favor of a gut feeling on my part. It's more of a delicate balance thing. It's admittedly more art than science, but I'm not willing to let the art smother the science. And, frankly, I don't really want the emails and comments barrage that would come with going out on too many limbs. I don't mind going out on a limb when I have a very strong opinion on a player, but there are plenty of players where we're all just guessing at how they're going to perform -- especially the rookies. The available information/knowledge gap is just too large. But to answer your request about players where I have no compunctions about speaking freely, here are the guys that I could easily rank higher -- though I know a couple of them are about as high as I can go: Matt Ryan, Big Ben, Trent Edwards, Sage Rosenfels, Michael Vick, Shaun Hill, Dennis Dixon MJD, Chris Johnson, S-Jax, Frank Gore, Knowshon Moreno, Ronnie Brown, Jonathan Stewart, Pierre Thomas, Arian Foster, Jamall Lee I'm curious about Jamall Lee. From what I've read, Mike Goodson is the one to keep an eye on in CAR. Anybody got more info on Lee?ETA--found a post on Lee with the search function (duh!): Jamall Lee, RB, Bishop's College This Canadian standout has drawn a lot of attention, especially after blazing a 4.39 in the 40-yard dash at the Canadian Football League combine earlier this month. It was the fastest 40 ever run at the CFL combine. What has made NFL scouts take notice is that Lee, son of CFL running back Orville Lee, is 6-1, 225 pounds. There are concerns about his ability to compete against NFL competition, even though he dominated in one of the higher level Canadian college leagues. He played out of a spread offense on a wide field, where he has more room to operate. Still, his speed and evasiveness is not being overlooked and his agent said he has some interviews lined up with NFL teams. Lee's YouTube highlight reel is, at the very least, entertaining. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...amall+lee\ Any more info? TIA.
  5. Chris Johnson destroyed the periodic table, because he only recognizes the element of surprise.
  6. WR is a gamble of sorts. There are 6 or 7 guys who should be selected in the first 60 picks, but none that are top-10 types. RB is...well...interesting. McFadden is IMO a notch below Peterson and more comparable to Caddy's rank coming out of college; still extremely highly rated but not the best we've seen lately. Players like Mendenhall, Stewart, and Charles could be super-exciting if they end up in the right places. Rice, Slaton, Choice, etc. all are talented enough to earn significant playing time, but not everyone drafted will be a star obviously. TE is almost non-existent. I could have just bolded everything I guess, all good points. I just don't see anyone who stands out to me right now, the wideouts are a flip a coin type deal in my eyes (of course where they go makes a big difference for wide outs imo, at least right away) and the same can be said for the qb's. And the running backs after mccfadden remind me of the running backs after lynch and AD, I didnt even want to draft any of them.Stewart, Mendenhall, and Charles are all 3 better then Kenny Irons, Chris Henry, and Brandon Jackson... Also, at QB you've got the top 3 in Brohm, Ryan and Woodson with some people liking one better than others but all at a high level of talent. Then you've got a second tier with Ainge, Brennan, Henne and possibly one or two more who have enough talent to start in the NFL some day depending on the situation they land in. It will be easier to assess after the Combine, Pro Day's and Draft, but worth discussing now. I only wish I had more to add.
  7. Calvin Johnson's rookie year is a godsend for those us that weren't able to draft him this year. I'll be working all offseason to try and get my hands on him while he's still obtainable. After next year he'll be like B. Edwards and owners won't give him up.At the end of the day he's got measurables that are off the chart and he was injured, playing for an insane coordinator in a very complex offense all while being a rookie. Martz won't be there next year and whoever takes over will see the talent he has and quickly reduce S. MacDonald's/Furrey's roles and elevate Johnson's. I was going to start a dynasty buy/sell thread last week, but just got lazy. CJ along with Anthony Gonzalez were going to be at the top of my list for WR's. I am hoping they dont have any big games before the trading opens back up in my leagues. This time of year is great for trading current rookie picks(which are overvalued now) for players who were drafted recently, but may be underperforming. This is particularly effective when it comes to WR's, but works for all positions. Some other players i will be targeting are Matt Leinart, Chad Jackson, Reggie Bush and Deangelo Williams amongst others.I would add Sidney Rice to your list. He performed well for a few weeks and I hope he cools off a little down the stretch. A lof of FF'ers tend to overvalue the last part of the year in projecting the next year. If he flies under the radar from here on out I think he'll be a great target for next year in dynasty leagues.I do like him, but it seems most of his owners are higher on him than i am right now. He certainly has the talent, but i dont like his situation in the near future. I love Gonzalez, i am hoping we see Harrison before the year ends so i can get him cheap after the season ends. I think he is a top 10-15 dynasty WR once Harrison is out of the picture, which i think will happen sooner than later.Keep in mind that in today's NFL, situations change very quickly. I see Minnesota as an up and coming team and Rice as a good value. I like Gonzalez but think he'll be overvalued because of his situation.Just my $.02.