Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Ardbeg4ever

Members
  • Content Count

    38
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

17 Good

About Ardbeg4ever

Previous Fields

  • Favorite NFL Team
    Detroit Lions

Recent Profile Visitors

The recent visitors block is disabled and is not being shown to other users.

  1. Leader in the clubhouse for the week, unless Ariz outscores Lions.
  2. People forget the XP is only 95% not 100%. If you think you have a better than 47.5% chance of converting or less than a 50% chance of stopping Tenn on a 2 point conversion, then you go for 2. Either way, it's within 5%, I"m okay with a coach going with their gut if within 5%.
  3. Good, otherwise Baltimore would be down to 4 RBs... 🙄
  4. Used Off: GB/ARI/BAL/SEA Def SF/IND/BAL/PIT Week 6 Off: Minnesota Def: Miami
  5. Logic is used in setting up the math. What % chance do you think Minn had in converting? What % chance in stopping SEA from scoring if they didn't convert? What % chance do you think SEA had in making a 2 point conversion? Finally what % chance do you think SEA had of winning in OT?
  6. You had some compensating factors but going for it 82.1%, FG = 80.9%
  7. If you use the following assumptions: FG 95% Convert 4th and 1 = 65% Sea Scores TD after missed FG or failed 4th down 60% Sea Scores TD after made FG 65% Seattle 2 pt conversion 50% Seattle win in OT 60% It comes out to 79% chance to win by going for it vs 78.5% chance to win by kicking FG If you use the following assumptions: FG 95% Convert 4th and 1 = 65% Sea Scores TD after missed FG or failed 4th down 55% Sea Scores TD after made FG 60% Seattle 2 pt conversion 50% Seattle win in OT 50% It comes out to 81% chance to win by going for it vs 83% chance to win by kicking FG Pretty close either way. My percentages for SEA scoring TD are just WAGs but the rest are based in stats.
  8. If it looks like he might miss a week or two, I might just drop him if I can get Shenault or Jeffrey.
  9. Maybe Dalton has met Gallup before, apparently he and Dak were strangers.
  10. This is a free contest so no big deal but I wouldn't give them the average but maybe give them 25% over their average?
  11. Used Off: GB/ARI/BAL Def SF/IND/BAL Week 5 Off: Seattle Def: Pittsburgh
  12. I traded Newton for Ryan. I have Wilson with same BYE as NE and he has Mahomes with same as Ryan. Also traded Ingram for Henderson.