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Biabreakable

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  1. Yates is likely too high as far as total pass attempts projected (620) but otherwise this makes a lot of sense. He ends up with more targets for Hurst and Gurley than I would expect for the same reason. The 3 year average for Matt Ryan (pro rating one game last season) is 598 so 620 isnt that much more than this average. Its 22 more than I would use as a projection though.
  2. This article has a graph that is showing how the RB are being valued more than their NFL draft position dictates and how that has been valued previously in terms of ADP. I could offer some reasons for why that may be. I was curious about what others thought about this though. Are the players just that good? Or is it that the situations they landed into are that good? Of course it can be both and I think it is both in the case of Johnathan Taylor and to a lesser extent JK Dobbins. While CEH is a good RB prospect, most had him as the 4th or 5th RB before the draft. His ascension to the number one rookie RB is mostly about the opportunity being as good as it gets really. 20 some years of success of Andy Reid RB nothing to bat an eye at. The success of recent RB in drafts may have the community over correcting? Things have definitely shifted towards the RB side again. I think the perspective is being driven by the fantasy pundits in the community as well so almost everyone seems to be in lock step on this here, not saying I am not also valuing the RB very highly as well, but I do worry this may have gone a bit too far because of recency bias. In a broader view we had those two draft classes with no 1st round picks used on RB in the NFL draft, it almost happened again this year, and I think the overall trend of draft capital invested in RB continues to go down, despite the recent top 10 picks at the position, such as McCaffrey, Fournette, Gurley recently.
  3. Adam Thielen missed basically 8 games last year and the number of passing attempts was lower than I think it otherwise would be with him healthy. It has already been covered by DAGs post about Jefferson earlier on in the thread. Jefferson is NOT exclusively a slot WR. He can play in all downs and formations.He will be the Vikings WR two in 2020 and I would expect him to play on 70% or more of their offensive snaps regardless of how infrequently they may play 3 WR. As far as that goes Adam Thielen has been more effective from the slot than he has playing outside. Does this really matter when the guy is catching 100 balls? The slot WR has more field to work with than a guy who lines up outside. Look at the Saints Michael Thomas, mostly a slot receiver. No small coincidence that the LSU coach came from the Saints and utilized Jefferson as their primary WR even though almost all of his snaps he played the slot. The slot is the number one WR in this offense. Even though the Vikings will play more 2 TE formations, that does not mean that Irv Smith or Kyle Rudolph won't line up outside allowing Thielen or Jefferson to operate from the slot.
  4. The purpose of these polls is to get an idea of who the majority of voters prefer at a specific pick in a rookie draft. These drafts assume that all 2020 rookie players are available. For the 2QB poll there may be some variance in scoring. Some may be standard, others PPR. I think a lot of 2QB leagues may involve IDP as well so these differences are not accounted for here. Only looking at the offensive skill players in the two most common formats and also 2QB leagues, to get a sense of where the QB are valued relative to other positions, when there is actually scarcity at the QB position. For the TE premium poll this assumes the scoring format is PPR because that is what these leagues almost always are. The polls assume 12 teams and likely 24-26 roster spots as the most common format for dynasty. Short bench dynasty leagues should only care about the top 6-12 rookie players. If a player isn't listed that you would vote for please vote other and then post the name of the player that you voted for so that player can be added to the next poll. Also please suggest players not listed that you would vote for soon, even if not on the particular poll that is active. I populated the lists based on NFL draft position and voter suggestions Thanks everyone for voting. Discussion welcome. Results so far Standard 1.01 Johnathan Taylor IND 1.02 Clyde Edwards Helare KC 1.03 JK Dobbins BAL 1.04 DeAndre Swift DET 1.05 Cam Akers RAM 1.06 CeDee Lamb DAL 1.07 Jerry Juedy DEN 1.08 Henry Ruggs LVR 1.09 Justin Jefferson MIN 1.10 Jalen Reagor PHI 1.11 Michael Pittman IND 1.12 Tee Higgins CIN 2.01 Joe Burrow CIN 2.02 KeShaun Vaughn TAM 2.03 Denzel Mims NYJ 2.04 Brandon Aiyuk SF 2.05 AJ Dillon GBP 2.06 Laviska Shenault JAX 2.07 Tua Tagovailoa MIA 2.08 Zach Moss BUF 2.09 Bryan Edwards LVR 2.10 Antonio Gibson WAS 2.11 Chase Claypool PIT PPR 1.01 Clyde Edwards Helare KC 1.02 Johnathan Taylor IND 1.03 DeAndre Swift DET 1.04 JK Dobbins BAL 1.05 Cam Akers RAM 1.06 CeDee Lamb DAL 1.07 Jerry Juedy DEN 1.08 Justin Jefferson MIN 1.09 Jalen Reagor PHI 1.10 Henry Ruggs LVR 1.11 Tee Higgins CIN 1.12 Michael Pittman IND 2.01 Denzel Mims NYJ 2.02 Brandon Aiyuk SF 2.03 KeShaun Vaughn TAM 2.04 Laviska Shenault JAX 2.05 Joe Burrow CIN 2.06 AJ Dillon GBP 2.07 Bryan Edwards LVR 2.08 Tua Tagovailoa MIA 2.09 Zach Moss BUF 2.10 Antonio Gibson WAS 2.11 Chase Claypool PIT 2 QB Leagues 1.01 Joe Burrow CIN 1.02 5 Tua Tagovailoa MIA 1.03 32 Clyde Edwards Helare KC 1.04 Johnathan Taylor IND 1.05 JK Dobbins BAL 1.06 DeAndre Swift DET 1.07 Justin Herbert LAC 1.08 CeDee Lamb DAL 1.09 Cam Akers RAM 1.10 Jerry Juedy DEN 1.11 Justin Jefferson MIN 1.12 Henry Ruggs LVR 2.01 Jalen Reagor PHI 2.02 Michael Pittman IND 2.03 Tee Higgins CIN 2.04 KeShaun Vaughn TAM 2.05 Denzel Mims NYJ 2.06 Brandon Aiyuk SF 2.07 Jordan Love QB GBP 2.08 AJ Dillon GBP 2.09 Bryan Edwards LVR 2.10 53 Jalen Hurts QB PHI 2.11 Antonio Gibson WAS TE Premium 1.01 Clyde Edwards Helare KC 1.02 Johnathan Taylor IND 1.03 DeAndre Swift DET 1.04 JK Dobbins BAL 1.05 Cam Akers RAM 1.06 CeDee Lamb DAL 1.07 Jerry Juedy DEN 1.08 Justin Jefferson MIN 1.09 Jalen Reagor PHI 1.10 Henry Ruggs LVR 1.11 Tee Higgins CIN 1.12 Michael Pittman IND 2.01 Denzel Mims NYJ 2.02 Brandon Aiyuk SF 2.03 Laviska Shenault JAX 2.04 KeShaun Vaughn TAM 2.05 AJ Dillon GBP 2.06 Joe Burrow CIN 2.07 Bryan Edwards LVR 2.08 Tua Tagovailoa MIA 2.09 Cole Kmet CHI 2.10 Adam Trautman NOS 2.11 Antonio Gibson WAS Links to previous polls 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.07 1.08 1.09 1.10 1.11 1.12 2.01 2.02 2.03 2.04 2.05 2.06 2.07 2,08 2.09 2.10 2.11
  5. Cool. At least we agree on the targets. The career averages are lower. I think Boyle is relevant to the conversation of Hurst earning playing time. It shows that he was not a better blocker or receiver than 2 other TE on his team. The PFF grades show Hurst is not good at run blocking. This could affect his snaps and if it is mostly run downs that Hurst doesn't play then he won't benefit as much from play action. I am skeptical of Hurst receiving greater efficiency because of higher quality QB play. Hursts yards per target from last year is actually pretty strong. I am sure there were plays that Jackson being a threat as a runner and extending plays helps that. Not so Matt Ryan. I think with increased volume efficiency goes down not up. Changing teams is often not good for these players in their first season with the new team. Under the current circumstances, practice and chemistry may be more difficult to achieve than usual. Hurst is going into his 3rd season, so I would expect some improvement from experience and TE generally improving in their 3rd season, although I wonder if that has been disrupted now by him changing teams.
  6. Kelly goes one pick after McFarland according to the ADP. So they are very close to the same pick value. I haven't added Kelly on all of these polls yet. No one suggested that I add him. I just did so based on the ADP I am just looking for 40 votes for this poll. I don't see any ties that might hold that up right now.
  7. Austin Hooper first two seasons 92 targets 68 receptions 797 yards 6 TD 73.9% catch rate 8.6 yards per target Hayden Hurst first two seasons 62 targets 43 receptions 512 yards 3 TD 69.4% catch rate 8.3 yards per target So Hooper was better in catch rate and yards per target in his first two seasons on higher volume of targets than Hurst had. Fewer the targets better the efficiency generally. Last season the Ravens played 3 TE extensively Nick Boyle played 769 offensive snaps 43 targets 31 receptions 321 yards 2 TD 72% catch rate 7.5 yards per target Hatden Hurst played 457 offensive snaps 39 targets 30 receptions 349 yards 2 TD 76.9% catch rate 8.9 yards per target Mark Andrews okyed on 457 offensive snaps 98 targets 64 receptions 852 yards 10 TD 65.3% catch rate 8.7 yards per target So while Hurst does seem to be a better receiving option than Nick Boyle as far as efficiency stats he obviously isn't as good of a blocker and Boyle is. Hell Boyle played more snaps than the Ravens center did. Mark Andrews is the better receiver here, Targeted over twice as much as Hurst on the same number of offensive snaps. So where does this put Hurst? Not as good a receiver as Hooper or Andrews. Hurst is a better receiver than Nick Boyle.
  8. In regards to Gage getting more action that's true, but Gage not as much of a threat as Sanu, and Ridley moved to number two WR. What would be an alternative to using Hurst career averages?
  9. Ridley was injured last season. He missed 3 games with an abdominal injury at the end of the season. He had a toe injury that he was playing through earlier on in the season according to this article, that he had begun to recover from and play better before the injury against the Panthers. Ridley has played 2 seasons and he has 17 TD already. He was on pace for 115 targets last year. He has an excellent 9.1 yards per target so far in his career and the coaches stated the reason they traded Sanu is because they thought Ridley was ready to be their 2nd WR and take his place in the offense. I am wary of any projection for Hurst because their is so little data to work with its a fools errand. I am not comfortable with just penciling in Hoopers opportunity for Hurst when he has already been outplayed by two other TE on his previous team. I am also wary of drafting players based on opportunity alone. That often does not go very well. All of that said I still would likely take Hurst over Hooper. I just think Hooper is similar to Kyle Rudolph, coming off of a career year and his numbers will be a lot less in Cleveland.
  10. I realize this may not matter to you as you traded Hurst away, but I think this projection is overly optimistic. In previous post you stated you think Hurst will be the Falcons 2nd most targeted player. I think that is very unlikely as Calvin Ridley is the player I would expect to be in that position, not Hurst. The Falcons traded away Mohammed Sanu last season and that is part of the reason for the spike in targets for Hooper last season. In addition the Falcons could not run the ball, causing them to throw 684 times. From 2016 to 2018 the Falcons have averaged 561 pass attempts. 2019 was 120 targets more than this average. If I use a 3 year average of 2017 to 2019 I get 610 passing attempts. In 2018 when the Falcons had Julio Sanu and Ridley, Hooper was their 4th most targeted player.at 88 targets over 16 games. The Falcons added Todd Gurley who may be a shadow of his former self but is still an upgrade over Freeman, Brian Hill and Ito Smith last year. He will get targets in the passing game that otherwise may have been a dump off to the TE. Hurst has a career catch rate of 69.4% so at 100 targets that would be 69 receptions. He has 11.9 yards per reception so 821 yards. Hurst has a career yards per target of 8.3 so this would be 830 yards on 100 targets. I think Hurst sees something more like 90 targets in 2020 with career averages that means 62 receptions 743 yards TD I don't know. Hurst has 3 TD so far in 2 years.
  11. The purpose of these polls is to get an idea of who the majority of voters prefer at a specific pick in a rookie draft. These drafts assume that all 2020 rookie players are available. For the 2QB poll there may be some variance in scoring. Some may be standard, others PPR. I think a lot of 2QB leagues may involve IDP as well so these differences are not accounted for here. Only looking at the offensive skill players in the two most common formats and also 2QB leagues, to get a sense of where the QB are valued relative to other positions, when there is actually scarcity at the QB position. For the TE premium poll this assumes the scoring format is PPR because that is what these leagues almost always are. The polls assume 12 teams and likely 24-26 roster spots as the most common format for dynasty. Short bench dynasty leagues should only care about the top 6-12 rookie players. If a player isn't listed that you would vote for please vote other and then post the name of the player that you voted for so that player can be added to the next poll. Also please suggest players not listed that you would vote for soon, even if not on the particular poll that is active. I populated the lists based on NFL draft position and voter suggestions Thanks everyone for voting. Discussion welcome. Results so far Standard 1.01 Johnathan Taylor IND 1.02 Clyde Edwards Helare KC 1.03 JK Dobbins BAL 1.04 DeAndre Swift DET 1.05 Cam Akers RAM 1.06 CeDee Lamb DAL 1.07 Jerry Juedy DEN 1.08 Henry Ruggs LVR 1.09 Justin Jefferson MIN 1.10 Jalen Reagor PHI 1.11 Michael Pittman IND 1.12 Tee Higgins CIN 2.01 Joe Burrow CIN 2.02 KeShaun Vaughn TAM 2.03 Denzel Mims NYJ 2.04 Brandon Aiyuk SF 2.05 AJ Dillon GBP 2.06 Laviska Shenault JAX 2.07 Tua Tagovailoa MIA 2.08 Zach Moss BUF 2.09 Bryan Edwards LVR 2.10 Antonio Gibson WAS 2.11 Chase Claypool PIT PPR 1.01 Clyde Edwards Helare KC 1.02 Johnathan Taylor IND 1.03 DeAndre Swift DET 1.04 JK Dobbins BAL 1.05 Cam Akers RAM 1.06 CeDee Lamb DAL 1.07 Jerry Juedy DEN 1.08 Justin Jefferson MIN 1.09 Jalen Reagor PHI 1.10 Henry Ruggs LVR 1.11 Tee Higgins CIN 1.12 Michael Pittman IND 2.01 Denzel Mims NYJ 2.02 Brandon Aiyuk SF 2.03 KeShaun Vaughn TAM 2.04 Laviska Shenault JAX 2.05 Joe Burrow CIN 2.06 AJ Dillon GBP 2.07 Bryan Edwards LVR 2.08 Tua Tagovailoa MIA 2.09 Zach Moss BUF 2.10 Antonio Gibson WAS 2.11 Chase Claypool PIT 2 QB Leagues 1.01 Joe Burrow CIN 1.02 5 Tua Tagovailoa MIA 1.03 32 Clyde Edwards Helare KC 1.04 Johnathan Taylor IND 1.05 JK Dobbins BAL 1.06 DeAndre Swift DET 1.07 Justin Herbert LAC 1.08 CeDee Lamb DAL 1.09 Cam Akers RAM 1.10 Jerry Juedy DEN 1.11 Justin Jefferson MIN 1.12 Henry Ruggs LVR 2.01 Jalen Reagor PHI 2.02 Michael Pittman IND 2.03 Tee Higgins CIN 2.04 KeShaun Vaughn TAM 2.05 Denzel Mims NYJ 2.06 Brandon Aiyuk SF 2.07 Jordan Love QB GBP 2.08 AJ Dillon GBP 2.09 Bryan Edwards LVR 2.10 53 Jalen Hurts QB PHI 2.11 Antonio Gibson WAS TE Premium 1.01 Clyde Edwards Helare KC 1.02 Johnathan Taylor IND 1.03 DeAndre Swift DET 1.04 JK Dobbins BAL 1.05 Cam Akers RAM 1.06 CeDee Lamb DAL 1.07 Jerry Juedy DEN 1.08 Justin Jefferson MIN 1.09 Jalen Reagor PHI 1.10 Henry Ruggs LVR 1.11 Tee Higgins CIN 1.12 Michael Pittman IND 2.01 Denzel Mims NYJ 2.02 Brandon Aiyuk SF 2.03 Laviska Shenault JAX 2.04 KeShaun Vaughn TAM 2.05 AJ Dillon GBP 2.06 Joe Burrow CIN 2.07 Bryan Edwards LVR 2.08 Tua Tagovailoa MIA 2.09 Cole Kmet CHI 2.10 Adam Trautman NOS 2.11 Antonio Gibson WAS Links to previous polls 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.07 1.08 1.09 1.10 1.11 1.12 2.01 2.02 2.03 2.04 2.05 2.06 2.07 2,08 2.09 2.10 the next poll can be found here
  12. 37 votes in. Hurts and Gibson still tied. HowdY @beto I haven't heard from you in awhile. Best wishes to you and yours.