Biabreakable

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  1. I haven't really watched Chark. He is one of the biggest risers after the combine is what I find funny about it because pre combine ranking for Chark was very low. You know when just based on watching him play. In miqws February list Chark was the 37th player overal and the 17th WR. In more recent list from April Chark is now 21st overall and WR 9. The poll where he won was PPR at 19 so a little earlier than the list. He was WR 9 in that poll the same as miqws list.
  2. He completely stops two times in the Washington State game. its not something I like to see. Patience to wait for blocks sure, but the blocks never come and likely were not going to on those two plays. I would rather see him try to hit it up in there in that situation instead of just standing there waiting until he gets tackled. Its not like he does it in every game, but he definitely does in that game.
  3. No I wasn't saying that, but for the most part its true. I would need to find the article again, but it was about how the value of draft picks and players fluctuates over the course of a season, it was a good read. A side bar of this analysis was that fantasy football ADP predicted the players level of performance more accurately than the NFL draft position did. The fantasy football community was able to identify players who may have been relatively high NFL draft picks who wouldn't put up very good statistics. So in that sense it was better at predicting which players would be good for fantasy football than the NFL draft was, which makes a bit of sense because the NFL teams are not drafting for fantasy football, and the FF community is considering all of the information available including why teams selected players where they did and how they fit into the team. As far as other stuff like the combine metrics and so on, none of those things are more accurate than the NFL draft, which also makes sense because the NFL teams have considered all of that information in their decision to draft a player where they did. So while these types of analysis may be valid, its already baked in to the decision to draft the player. It lacks the information about the other reasons why the team made the decision that they did. This is not to say the teams draft the players in the order that they should, they make mistakes and players do not pan out for all kinds of reasons that were unknown when the teams made their decision to draft those players.
  4. I wasn't looking at the defense that much really and it was sort of an afterthought to your comments once I started watching the Stanford game. I have seen a lot of different RB have some really good plays against Stanford recently, but I have seen them clamp down on the run at other times, and I think they have finished well statistically, although maybe not recently. Anyhow its definitely not a SEC level of competition that he is facing, the QB is a running threat as well, although he hangs Freeman out to dry on a couple of those option runs. On one of those Freeman is facing a diamond of free defenders, nobody was going to be able to create under that situation. Some of the other stuffs are failed blocks where Freeman is getting hit in the legs by his lineman and the defender being driven back. On the plays where he just stops, yes he doesn't see a hole, I didn't take the time to evaluate if there was one on these plays, if there was it wasn't obvious to me, it just looked like the defense won the LOS and the blocking failed to open anything. What I don't like about what Freeman does is that he just stops and waits for blocking that doesn't develop. If he made a decision earlier maybe he could have got a couple yards by just hitting it hard. He doesn't really run like that much though, he is more of a finesse runner, sure he is mostly north south but he likes to pick his way through traffic instead of playing behind his pads. What I don't like about this is what he isn't showing me, which is good power and leverage, he just doesn't really try to run that way as much as a lot of RB will. So I hear what you are saying in regards to burst, I don't think our definitions are that different for that trait. Most of the time when I give a RB a point for burst it is the player generating power in the short area that either allows them to beat angles, or to be moving too fast to get arm tackled, or to generate yards after contact due to the bust of acceleration. I understand your comment better now in relation to the traffic Freeman is facing on these plays, Oregon does have a threat of a passing game and a mobile QB. So they are scheming some lighter boxes I can see how that is related to the runway comment. I iniitally thought about this being related to build up speed, but I think Freemans acceleration is fine, when I think of a RB needing build up speed or a runway I think of a very slow RB who won't play much unless they are very powerful or something, and Freeman doesn't run with power very much, he is more finese. I never compared him to Barkley. By my charting Barkleys worst game out of 10 was a 49 which is what I got for a total for Freeman in two of these games. Barkley averages a total score of 69.2 the average of those 4 games for Freeman was 46.75 a 22 point difference or 47% better. There is a pretty huge gap between those two, Guice was 59.2 so still a tier above Freeman in my view, thus Freeman falling into tier 2a instead of tier one. Those scores are comparable to Sony Michel, Ronald Jones. Chubb's score does not compare to these guys very well. I do think I should watch one other game for Chubb however and drop Chubbs worst game from the sample, which is something I did for Guice already In the game against Notre Dame Chubb only gets 8 points from my charting and that is bringing down his overall score. I can see Chubb being in the same tier as these guys if I did that. Michels average overall score is 39.8 for the 5 games I charted for him, so its not like he is a lot better than Chubb is. Bakley and Guice are a tier above all of these other guys in my opinion.
  5. I was going to say that I did see an article on rotoworld a year or so back that showed the fantasy community is actually better at predicting the success of NFL skill players (statistically) than the actual NFL draft. But of course the fantasy community takes draft position into consideration as well. As far as combine metrics or any other advanced stat out there trying t predict the success of the college players in the NFL, none that I know of are more predictive than the NFL draft.
  6. There are plenty of examples of him demonstrating short area quickness in the 4 games linked by Borden above. For starters watch the first play on the clip of the game against Washington State You get two different views of this play, the backside view the more useful one for observing this. What I see him do is press the hole to the right as he works his way behind the center, then he makes a quick cut to the left side and gets space after the move. Another example from this clip happens at the 1:16 mark. This is actually a very similar play to the first one, Freeman presses the hole to the right with the offensive line blocking mostly to the right before he cuts to the left and the opening created by the left guard crashing down. The quickness allows Freeman to change direction and get a burst of acceleration which allows him to clear the LB who is coming through the hole unblocked.. he presses to the right and then when he cuts is able to get behind 41 with his quickness through the hole, this also allows him to outrun the backside pursuit of the defender coming at him from the right.(who is unblocked by the right tackle and crashing down the LOS). I think these are two very good examples of his short area quickness, which is something that shows up in every game I have watched of Freeman.
  7. Gore has been a solid player for a long time and will likely be good enough this season as well in a time share. Besides Gore and Drake the Dolphins have a couple RB I am unfamiliar with out of Louisville, Senorise Perry and Brandon Radcliff. I would expect the Dolphins to draft a RB but they have so many needs on both sides of the ball I doubt it is a high pick. Here are the Dolphins draft picks right now First round - pick 11 - 11th overall Second round - pick 10 - 42nd overall Third round - pick 9 - 73rd overall Fourth round - pick 11 - 111th overall* Fourth round - pick 31 - 131st overall (from New England via Philadelphia)* Sixth round - pick 9 - 183rd overall** Seventh round - pick 5 - 223rd overall (from Tampa Bay)*** Seventh round - pick 11 - 229th overall I could see them possibly using one of their 4th round picks on a RB if a guy they really like is still there. I think the first 3 picks should be focused on offensive line and defensive players since they likely won't be drafting a QB (but probably should). I see Gore doing a lot of dirty work but Drake getting nice opportunities for big plays. Gore has a lot of experience that Drake could learn from about being a pro that maybe helps his development.
  8. Its early I will go ahead and edit him in. I had him in some of the earlier polls. He is the next player to add after Callaway on miqws list.
  9. The Cardinals have a lot of needs. I went with Mike McGlichey because Andre Smith is very bad but I could see them taking Hurst or a corner as well.
  10. His change of direction ability could be better. He tries to make some guys miss but the body doesn't do what he wants it to. Possible that is something that could improve if he lost some weight but he isn't as loose in the hips as guys like Jay Ajayi for example.
  11. The purpose of these polls is to get an idea of who the majority of voters prefer at a specific pick in a rookie draft. These drafts assume that all 2018 rookie players are available. For the 2QB poll there may be some variance in scoring. Some may be standard, others PPR. I think a lot of 2QB leagues may involve IDP as well so these differences are not accounted for here. Only looking at the offensive skill players in the two most common formats and also 2QB leagues, to get a sense of where the QB are valued relative to other positions, when there is actually scarcity at the QB position. The polls assume 12 teams and likely 24-26 roster spots as the most common format for dynasty. Short bench dynasty leagues should only care about the top 6-12 rookie players. If a player isn't listed that you would vote for please vote other and then post the name of the player that you voted for so that player can be added to the next poll. Also please suggest players not listed that you would vote for soon, even if not on the particular poll that is active. I will be using this list compiled by miqws that looks good for populating the poll. Discussion welcome.Thanks for voting. Previous polls 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.07 1.08 1.09 1.10 1.11 1.12 2.01 2.02 2.03 2.04 2.05 2.06 2.07 Results Standard Sanquon Barkley 83.9% with 57 votes Derrius Guice 67.4% with 51 votes Nick Chubb 52.2% with 48 votes Sony Michel 34% with 54 votes Rashaad Penny 32% with 60 votes Ronald Jones 48.3% with 65 votes Courtland Sutton 27.8% with 57 votes Royce Freeman 41.2% with 58 votes Kerryon Johnson 33.3% with 63 votes Calvin Ridley 44.9% with 59 votes DJ Moore 28.6% with 55 votes Christian Kirk 25.6% with 46 votes James Washington 28.7% with 40 votes Equanimeous St. Brown 23.8% with 48 votes Dallas Goedert 17.1% with 47 votes Michael Gallup 20% with 41 votes (Tie with Josh Rosen broken by Gallup winning the PPR poll) Josh Rosen 18.9% with 40 votes Anthony Miller 15% with 42 votes (Tie with Mayfield broken by Miller winning PPR poll before Mayfield) Baker Mayfield 17.1% with 36 votes (Tie with John Kelly broken by Mayfield also being involved in a tie on the previous poll) PPR Sanquon Barkley 91% with 57 votes Derrius Guice 63% with 51 votes Nick Chubb 34.8% with 48 votes Sony Michel 42.6% with 54 votes Ronald Jones 43.4% with 60 votes Rashaad Penny 41.7% with 65 votes Courtland Sutton 38.9% with 57 votes Calvin Ridley 39.2% with 58 votes Royce Freeman 22.2% with 63 votes Kerryon Johnson 26.5% with 59 votes (close to a tie with Christian Kirk) Christian Kirk 32.7% with 55 votes (DJ Moore won the run off poll) DJ Moore 43.6% with 46 votes James Washington 43.2% with 40 votes Equanimeous St. Brown 40.4% with 48 votes Dallas Goedert 24.4% with 47 votes Michael Gallup 22.9% with 41 votes Anthony Miller 32.4% with 40 votes Mike Gesicki 25% with 42 votes DJ Chark 22.9% with 36 votes (editors note ) 2 QB Sanquon Barkley 67.9% with 57 votes Derrius Guice 28.3% with 51 votes Nick Chubb 17.4% with 48 votes Sony Michel 17.8% with 54 votes Sam Darnold 13.2% with 60 votes Josh Rosen 23.3% with 65 votes Baker Mayfield 20.4% with 57 votes Josh Allen 19.6% with 58 votes Lamar Jackson 20.4% with 63 votes Ronald Jones 20.4% with 59 votes Courtland Sutton 18.4% with 55 votes Rashaad Penny 25.6% with 46 votes Calvin Ridley 24.3% with 40 votes James Washington 11.9% with 48 votes Mason Rudolph 12.2% with 47 votes DJ Moore 22.9% with 41 votes Royce Freeman 21.6% with 40 votes Christian Kirk 15% with 42 votes Kerryon Johnson 25.7% with 36 votes TE Premium Sanquon Barkley 71.4% with 57 votes Derrius Guice 47.8% with 51 votes Nick Chubb 30.4% with 48 votes Sony Michel 34% with 54 votes Ronald Jones 24.5% with 60 votes Rashaad Penny 35% with 65 votes Courtland Sutton 22.2% with 57 votes Calvin Ridley 29.4% with 58 votes Royce Freeman 18.5% with 63 votes Mike Gesicki 18.4% with 59 votes Dallas Goedert 14,3% with 55 votes DJ Moore 13.5% with 46 votes (Tie with Mark Andrews resolved by DJ Moore going ahead of Andrews in PPR poll) James Washington 10.8% with 40 votes (Tie with Mark Andrews resolved by Washington going ahead of Andrews in PPR poll) Kerryon Johnson 19% with 48 votes (interest in Andrews seems to have faded.. Hurst tied with him in this poll) Mark Andrews 14.6% (Broke tie with Hayden Hurst based on Andrews having already tied in two previous polls) Hayden Hurst 14% with 41 votes (4 way tie between Rosen, Hurst, Kirk and Kelly broken by Hurst almost winning previous poll) Christian Kirk 24.3 with 40 votes Equanimeous St. Brown 17.5% with 42 votes Michael Gallup 11.4% with 36 votes (Tie with Josh Rosen broken by Gallup being higher in PPR poll)
  12. So I charted these 4 games for Freeman. Against Washington State he gets a total score of 33. 6 vision 1 acceleration 4 elusiveness 2 burst 4 power 6 footwork 3 balance 1 ball security 4 blocking 1 route running 1 hands Notes from this game: Play at 1:16 mark shows burst and acceleration, also poor tackling. Twice Freeman stops his feet when he doesn't see a clear lane I gave him minus vision for those plays had some bad blocks where he needs to lock on not just give one push and expect that to be enough, but he has several other successful blocks and seems to understand his assignment just poor effort and technique at times more good than bad 5 good to 4 bad one of the poor blocks was on a jet sweep with him in the slot after the snap hard block to make. This was the lowest score he gets from these 4 games. Against Washington he gets a total score of 49. 10 vision 1 speed 1 acceleration 5 elusiveness 8 burst 3 power 12 footwork 2 pad level 2 balance 1 ball security 1 stiff arm 1 route running 2 hands. Notes from this game: The blocking is failing on several of these runs and Freeman has no where to go as the defender gets off his block right as the center passes the defender off the guard off the double team.. Another time where the pulling linemen are being pushed into the backfield at where the run is designed to go There are two bad snaps and exchanges where Freeman just needs to fall on the ball.. which he does 2 defenders unblocked on a run to the left no one blocks the backside of the play Broken play where the right guard and tackle pull to the left and the handoff is to the right sending Freeman to where the linemen just pulled from I can imagine this is how the play was designed the linemen are running the play to the opposite side as the QB and RB if so block failed by 56 gets Freeman in trouble and he tries to push this lineman forward he seems frustrated he is too late to react with a cut back but not much he could do there he is a little late getting out on routes at times, on one route 4:12 of the clip he starts running to the shor side of the field with the QB needing to scramble to the far side of the field due to the pass rush, he fixes this after the mistake, but too late and did not provide a target for his QB so I awarded no route for this, also on the WR screen I did not credit him with a route because he didn't set up well to use his block and get downfield gets up to the right level and blocks but lets his guy get off it and knife inside to pressure the QB needs to maintain his blocks. 49 points is pretty good relative to the other charting I have done this year. For context in the 10 games for Nick Chubb that I have charted, his best 4 total scores were 47, two games with 48 and one game with 51. So this game was right there with the best of Chubb I have charted. Against Standford he gets a total score of 56. 10 vision 3 speed 4 acceleration 5 elusiveness 5 burst 3 power 8 footwork 5 pad level 4 balance 2 ball security 2 blocking 1 stiff arm 3 route running 1 hands. Notes from this game: The play at the 1 minute mark is really nice, he sees the crease and presses the other hole Does an ok job blocking on one assignment to the right at first getting the defense to react before hitting the hole to the left, he is able to break down the safety without losing too much forward momentum, tackler from the backside does get him around the goal line, but plenty of speed and burst on this run as well as good footwork and change of direction to make the safety miss as well The play at the 30 second mark is a longer run than this, where you can see Freeman having enough speed and acceleration to out run the defense great blocking but Freeman times it just right as well. The total score of 56 is higher than any game I have charted for Nick Chubb. Sony Michel has one game where he had 70 out of the 5 games I charted, so its still not quite as good as what he did in his best game, but its still better than the other 4 games of Michel that I have charted. Guice has 4 games with a higher total score than this out of the 10 I charted for him. Against ASU he gets a total score of 49. 7 vision 2 speed 2 acceleration 2 elusiveness 4 burst 4 power 3 footwork 5 pad level 4 balance 2 ball security 6 blocking 6 route running 2 hands. Notes from this game: His block at the 30 second mark is eh but it worked I guess The run at the 48 second mark he shows his speed and acceleration by beating the defense and getting behind them once he turns upfield, also good quickness to get outside the edge defender before turning downfield Blocking effort poor again but it was enough and they scored the TD Actually does a good job blocking his man on the next play where Arizona is sending seven Stones an inside blitzer for an even better block than the last one At 2:38 he gets a great block by his lead back but he shows the speed to get to the edge on this play as well the block ends up getting in the way of the 2nd defender in pursuit but Freeman already had the angle on him before that Does a better job as a lead blocker than the first one At the 4 minute mark on 3rd and 7 Freeman runs a pretty good route and gets open on the out to the sideline he doesn't get turned back towards the ball right and doesn't get his hands right to catch the ball which goes through his fingers on the replay you can see the ball is a bit too far outside for what Freeman was expecting At 4:32 he struggles with a block but overall he has done a good job there in this game. The traits that Freeman shows strongest in these 4 games are vision and footwork. His score is pretty well rounded showing some ability in all of the traits I am charting. I don't think this is enough games yet. I have seen other games of Freeman which I thought were more impressive for example his game against Wyoming that I watched recently. To work with what I have so far the average total score for Freeman from these 4 games is 46.75 For Chubbs 10 games his average score is 33.2 For Michels 5 games charted his average score is 39.8 For Guice the average total score is 59.2 So he isn't as good as Guice by 13 points and he is better than Chubb by 13 points. Michels score is similarly good but still 6 points less. As far as your comments about Freeman needing a runway to get going, I didn't really see that. His short area quickness is good. If anything he dances too much instead of just hitting what is there. Sometimes this works out for him and he is able to do something after being patient, but most of the time he just gets stopped for no gain where if he didn't wait so long for blocking to develop, he might have been able to get something, not much but something. In regards to the light box comment, I didn't track this the whole time I was watching these games and I am sure he faces a light box at times, there are a lot of plays where there are 7 or more defenders crowding the LOS. The game against Standford in particular, they were sending 7 to 9 on run blitzes on a lot of those plays and Freeman does get dumped in the backfield a few times because of this. ASU was blitzing a ton as well, that is why Freeman ends up being involved in about 8 or 9 blocks in that game (most of which he did well on).
  13. Yeah Wright could dip into both Diggs and Thielens numbers. Thielen ran a lot of routes out of the slot last season, the more Wright plays the fewer opportunities for Thielen and Diggs to work out of the slot.
  14. It could. I haven't done full team projections for any team yet. Usually don't do that until after the draft. Jerrick McKinnon and Latavius Murray were still targeted a lot. IIRC Cook was getting one more target per game than McKinnon was though, so it could change the outlook of the overall pie slightly I suppose.