Biabreakable

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About Biabreakable

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  1. I'm tempted to think they might pass more, because they have more talent at WR and TE than I think there is at RB. However I have never really spent much time watching Matt Jones and he is a player I hadn't even heard of prior to him being drafted. So he is still kind of an unknown for me. I think Morris is a pretty big void to fill. Jones could be terrific and get similar carries I suppose, but throwing the ball to one of their many very good options, just may be a better play, even if they still had Morris. Cousins doesn't run that much, so when looking at past rushing totals, those are a bit higher due to Griffin. I would still expect about 400 total rushing attempts, but I could see it possibly being less than that. Without Morris I am just not sure who all of those rushing attempts are going to. In 2013 when Gruden was the OC with the Bengals they had Andy Dalton throw the ball 587 times, and they ran the ball 481 times. Cousins was very efficient last season having almost 70% completion percentage. I think I would be willing to risk some regression there that might come along with more pass attempts, but there is room for doing that and weapons to work with. You have cousins throwing 600 times already, 630 times including sacks. It is hard for me to say they would pass the ball more than this. Gruden's history suggests not. LIke you I am not sure where those rushing attempts are going to. I don't think Chris Thompson is going to have 150 rushing attempts, but maybe he will? This unknown leads me towards thinking they will throw the ball more as well. One thing that troubles me is that Washington played a very easy schedule last season. So the team may regress offensively due to facing better defenses this year. If they do pass the ball more this may mean higher total offensive plays. Because generally passing the ball is a more efficient way to move the ball. So perhaps they still run the ball 400 times, but the total plays are more like 1060 and that is where the extra passing attempts come from.
  2. Every player is different. I think basically it comes down to what you think a players true value is by whatever methods you use to evaluate that. If the ADP is higher than you would want to pay for the player and you have that player, consider selling. If the ADP is lower than you would want to pay for the player and you don't have that player, consider buying. In both cases you have to compare what you are getting in a trade against what you are giving up as well. Then when you do find a match you would be happy with, you have to hope the other owner sees things differently than you do.
  3. Vikings rookie Laquon Treadwell has lofty goals after playing in pain last year
  4. Report: Phil Loadholt Expected To Announce Retirement Today
  5. Great job with those projections dgreen and good discussion everyone. First of all I think the total number of plays at 1030 makes sense. The offense has been a bit below this the 2 seasons with Gruden as HC. In 2013 with Skeletor the team had over 1100 plays and that makes a huge difference, almost two games more plays than the pace of the last 2 seasons. Part of the difference is the team only won 3 games in 2013 so they were passing the ball more trying to catch up Kirk Cousins has been remarkably better at avoiding sacks than the other QB. Part of this is the offensive line showing some good improvement as well. 30 Sacks seems like a good expectation. He was sacked 26 times last year. I am not sure if you subtracted the sack yardage before allocating the WR totals? Or if you did this the other way around? We are only talking about something like 200 yards, but those are 200 yards that receivers will still get, even though the QB passing yards will be lower. Garcon has had a bit over 100 targets the last two seasons. 80 targets is perhaps conservative, but it makes sense as there are more quality receivers to work with now. For Reed if I pro rate the targets from 2014 and 2015 to account for games missed, then average those two seasons of targets, I get 113. So your targets for Reed might be about 10 too high, assuming your projection is meant to be the median expectation. 125 targets certainly possible. He was on pace for 130 last season. For Jackson using the same process I get 87 targets as his average for the last two seasons. So maybe a bit low there. While Crowder had a lot of targets as rookie last season, if you look at the game logs, most of his high target games occurred when Jackson was out. Jackson played in the first game but he only had one target. He was not really used in the last game either. Crowder had 29 targets when Jackson was playing, game 8 through 15 which is 8 games. This would be 58 targets if it remained the same. He isn't a rookie anymore, so some improvement should be expected, 85 targets still seems like too many however, if we are assuming all of the players will be healthy I think. I count 71 targets to the RBs in 2015 (including Carrier not sure if you guys consider him a TE or a RB?) This is significantly less than the around 100 targets that RB had in 2014. Main difference here being Roy Helu I think who got some decent opportunity that year. You have 105 targets going to RBs. I could see shaving 20 targets from the RBs. Personally I am pretty impressed with Josh Doctson and I think he will make a larger impact than what you have projected for him. I could see 60 targets going his way pretty easily and possibly more. Where those targets would most likely come from I think would be Crowder and the RBs.
  6. Hey Trip for what its worth I post stuff here because I hope one of my pals will steer me right or offer a counterpoint of my opinion I hadn't considered yet. I think you are doing a good thing considering not only players upside, but also their floors or downside scenarios, aside from acts of god. I think Cooper is a pretty safe bet as well. Really like the supporting cast around him and the overall situation. This works in Elliots favor as well. Assuming he gets to play that is. The possibility of serious legal trouble is a risk most of us were not considering in regards to him until recently. So that makes sense the risk could drop him a bit if you like other players without those risks about the same.
  7. Not saying sports hernia surgery is a big deal. Lots of players recover from this just fine and it doesn't even take that long to heal from it. However there is a reason why he hasn't done anything up until this point of his career, I am guessing there is a long list of injuries with this guy that I haven't bothered to look into. Jordan Cameron looked great during his fluke year with the Browns also. In fact the Browns are a fluke performance factory.
  8. I think you can track player ADPs similar to looking at stock technical analysis. You are looking for buy and sell opportunities. When a players ADP is higher than projections suggest they should be, that signals the player as a potential sell high and vice versa when a players ADP is lower than projections suggest they should be, that signals a buy. It is very easy to time these things wrong anyways, because predicting the future is hard. Looking at ADPs over longer time frames can at least help inform your decisions. To really gain a bargain (either selling or buying) requires that your perspective be significantly different that the norm. You buy when players are still unknown, or when there is bad news deflating the price. You sell when players perform well, which is often hard to do. Quality years remaining is a separate idea, that evaluates a players remaining career value based on the averages of historical production curves. While this can be related to your decisions about when to sell or buy players, this is focused on the projection side of a players value, that you would compare to the ADP. Similar to buying low and selling high, you may decide to sell players before they reach historical land marks of decline or the opposite buying players when they reach those land marks because of the lower price. As far as DGB I don't see how his quality years remaining should be a significant factor in the decision. He is young and his career hasn't even gotten off the ground yet. If he busts his QYR is zero. Selling him now you will not get the price you would have a month ago when he was going at the end of the 8th round. Currently he is a 10th round pick.which is about where he was being drafted in January. In February and March he climbed up to the 9th round as the ADP was likely more from dynasty drafts where age is a greater factor. He maintained this ADP leading up to the NFL draft then rose to the bottom of the 8th following it. You can see what I am talking about by going here clicking on DGB and then changing the graph to year to date. There are a bunch of nice ADP tracking tools around besides this one.
  9. I remember the game Moss is talking about fondly. Green Bays draft in 1999 1 25 Antuan Edwards DB 3 87 Mike McKenzie DB 3 94 Cletidus Hunt DT 4 133 Josh Bidwell P 4 131 Aaron Brooks QB 5 163 Craig Heimburger G 5 159 De'Mond Parker RB 6 203 Scott Curry T 6 196 Dee Miller WR 7 213 Donald Driver WR . 7 212 Chris Akins DB
  10. No. But I think what he did last season was a fluke. I read earlier that he was having a hernia surgery. I was not planning to draft him.
  11. Trying to project what will happen with the Browns gives me a headache. I haven't thought about the possibility of Gordon also being in the mix. If he is I have no idea how many games it will be. About the only two Browns players I have thought about projections for are Coleman and Duke Johnson. If Gordon is reinstated I would expect him to be the top WR and in AJ Greens role, which could reduce Colemans targets if he was then the WR 2. So that is kind of annoying. I was thinking Coleman gets about 130 targets as the WR 1 but if Gordon is involved I suppose that might only be 100.
  12. Yeah he was very good Z. Not saying he wasn't and he certainly could still be that same player again (or still is). I was just trying to make clear that the situation will likely be very different than 2013 and the targets fewer. Also that Gordon was not the same player in the 5 games he played in Kyle Shanahan's offense. Gordon had his amazing season in Norv's Coryell offense. Shanahan and Hue Jackson run a west coast offense. Good players are good in any offense. Kyle Shanahan's offense wasn't that great for the Falcons either.
  13. Is Knowshon Moreno an option for the Lions?
  14. Knowshon Moreno might be trying to find a team. I was just reading the Lions might be interested in him as RB depth.
  15. Cunningham: Green 'a man who really, really cared'