Biabreakable

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  1. You Bear fan pals are either lying to you so they have one less owner to compete with for him or other Bears players for that matter, or they are being realistic about it and see doom and gloom ahead. John Fox has a history of using RBBC and they drafted Jordan Howard who never saw a defender he didn't want to run over. Seems like a Fox kind of guy. He could snipe goal line possibly. From what I have heard he hasn't had a good camp. He did ok in most recent preseason game by the numbers. Not a receiving threat really. The Bears also have Kadeem Carey who could be in the mix if Langford and/or Howard are not getting it done. Carey is a well rounded football player but hasn't done much yet in the NFL. Quiz Rodgers was ahead of these guys on the depth chart earlier this season, but I think he is done and won't make the team. The Bears do have an easier schedule this year and Langford gained some weight which likely makes Fox happy. Fox seems to prefer a RB who can move a pile. Langford is currently being drafted at pick 62, so top of the 6th round. Seems like a reasonable price but I always find other players I would prefer to have more. The Bears will likely throw a lot this season and Langford looks like their best RB option in the passing game, although Carey can catch too.
  2. Yeah I am not saying either of them are good. Being younger I suppose gives more hope of the player improving. I understand people care about break out age for college players. Based on how both of them have played in the NFL thus far, neither have been very good. Benjamin did command almost 3 times as many targets his rookie season than Funchess did. Both only have rookie seasons in the NFL which usually does not reflect how they will play for their careers. My main point here is that if people don't think Benjamin is good then they shouldn't think Funchess is good either, because he wasn't. Being younger does not make him so.
  3. I have recently drafted him at 247 and 253 among folks who knew some things about football. If I didn't pick him it makes me wonder if anyone else would have considering how far he fell. It seems like only folks tuned in to the Vikings know how well he has been playing in camp, despite us being in an information age.
  4. Well my love for Jay Ajayi is something I have been talking about since Miami didn't re-sign Miller. I had him projected for 350 opportunities before the arrival of Foster. I have given that a pretty big haircut since then. The recent issues with Jay catching the ball is what concerns me the most about him, as I had been considering that a strength of his until recently. I did read the beat writers making negative comments about Jay as a receiver, but I wasn't sure how much stock to put into that, perhaps a bit of denial on my part just because I am not seeing what they are seeing. Their beat writers are overall very negative, and not detailed with their criticisms at all. So it was hard for me to take their comments at face value. Now that I saw Jay mess up in preseason as a receiver, their comments seem more justified, even though I still do not know what they have seen in this regard during practice, because they do a terrible job of actually describing what they are seeing, instead opting for hyperbolic emotionally charged comments that tell the reader more about the beat writer than they inform the reader about the player. Foster didn't look so hot either. The 3rd preseason game will be pretty meaningful I think, as far as what to expect for these guys going forward. The offensive line is pretty bad by all accounts as well. I am expecting the Dolphins to pass a lot, which should help the RB when they do run the ball. All of that said, I still think it may have been better for me to complete my WR group before drafting Jay. I hope Gates and Witten do outscore my RB, as I think my motley crew is going to do better than many would expect. Michael is the one who actually worries me the most out of the four. I saw a lot of the players I drafted pretty late last year going really high this year. So hoping that will be the case again in 2017.
  5. Yet Benjamins rookie season was more efficient than Funchess rookie season, and Benjamins rookie season was not at all efficient.
  6. What RB do you select #1 overall? With two flex spots and 2 RB/2 WR you would have baseline RB 48 and WR 48 or else RB 36 and WR 36. If VBD is telling you 6 of the top 10 VBD leaders are RB, then I assume your league does not have PPR scoring. In leagues with multiple flex options such as this I do think you want to take more of BPA approach. There are few RB who should be expected to have 300 opportunities, so it makes sense to draft those early as they will not last long. At the same time your ideal starting line up will likely be 2 RB 4 WR unless you actually get 3 workhorse RB, which seems hard to do when there are only six or so of those players right now. Something you should consider is what WR will still be available to you at the 24/25 turn and also at the 48/49 turn. You have the best draft position as one of only two teams to have five picks in the top 50 so maximizing those picks is how you can get ahead of the competition. If you know your league will draft a certain way, then you take that into consideration over looking at ADP. The point of zero RB as a label for the strategy is that you are willing to accept not having good RB. It is a sacrifice you make if you think drafting other positions gives you a better chance to win. So if you embrace the strategy, then you shouldn't be happy with the RB you get, but you won't care because of being strong at other positions. The extra flex spot I think means you should take more of a BPA/VBD approach and try to maximize the value of your first five picks regardless of position.
  7. I dunno. Trestman seems to be selling this angle. I wonder how these haircuts might affect things like SPARQ scores and so on?
  8. nittanylion, One of the choices I had to make for my second QB was the Eagles or the 49ers. It isn't an easy choice to make and it is kind of funny in a way because one team Chip Kelly got fired from and the other he was hired to. Initially I wanted to side with the up tempo and high volume. I do think SF players could really surprise this season. I just can't get past the fact that this is Blaine Gabbert, who may be better than Nick Foles, so who knows? I am no fan of Bradford and Wentz looked really raw in the first preseason game as should be expected, it isn't good but felt like less of a dumpster fire and a friendlier schedule. The 49ers may have better talent at the skill position than the Eagles, and if so Ellington would be one of the main components in that. I can see him being a very good pick. Torry Smith may be a very good WR for the same reason. Jackson had one of his best seasons with Chip. I was targeting Jace Amaro but not as early as you selected him. I could see him doing well but there is a lot of competition for targets. I don't seem to be alone in thinking the Bears will throw the ball more this season. Cutler played really well last season and if White can contribute he will have better numbers, the loss of Forte perhaps balances that out somewhat unless Langford plays a lot better than last season, which he should, but that is still a loss of an efficient supporting player. I like the Bears schedule, its easier than last season was. The offensive line seems to be a concern, perhaps more than last season, so that could be an achilles heel. I didn't think about the Tamme/Hooper pair. That's interesting. I think there is no question Hooper has more upside. The Falcons have been missing that element of their offense since Gonzalez retired. It just seems that rookie TE don't usually get much opportunity and Tamme isn't too old yet. I do expect them to split targets. Not sure how much or how large their total TE pie will be, but I don't think they got much better at WR, so TE targets should be pretty high I would think. What kind of numbers do you think the two will have as a tandem? I did pick Tamme had 81 targets last season and their other TE had 17 targets, which is 98. Gonzalez was routinely getting around 120 targets. Not that these two guys are that good, just saying that Ryan does like to throw to TE and maybe there could be 120 targets for Tamme and Hooper combined, but most likely 100 targets again. I was thinking Tamme would get 60 of those and Hooper 40. Although I could see that split being more in Tamme's favor than 60%. Really just depends on how many snaps Hooper will play. Toilolo will likely still have a lot of playing time I would think. Hooper may get a lot of red zone though as you say. I have not been following the Falcons TC much at all, so not sure how Hooper is progressing. I think you had a real solid start in the top half of the draft for the first six picks. I am not sure about investing in both Jaguars RB. I am usually trying to target the guy I like more and hope things break that guys way, so I don't want the other guy who breaks if that happens. Did you keep notes during your draft? Excellent detail for each of your picks. Good luck!
  9. Yeah VBD principles do still apply. I just don't think that is as relevant in total points format as it is in head to head formats. Some folks rely on points per game as the basis of their player evaluation, which is also more applicable to head to head formats, but not as much in total points.
  10. I appreciate a good ramble. The draft is done now so a good time to talk about strategy, what worked? What didn't? I consider FF especially in a total points format to be a lot about risk management and playing the odds. Last season only 8 RB made the top 100 scorers in this format. Only 39 RB scored over 100 points. In 2014 11 RB finished in the top 100 and 35 scored over 100 points. Last season 37 WR finished in the top 100. 74 of them scored over 100 points. In 2014 33 WR finished in the top 100 and 77 of them scored over 100 points. Value Based Drafting does not matter as much in total points format as it does in head to head leagues. The odds are against you drafting RB in the top 100 picks in this format. We must draft 64 RB. RB 64 the last two seasons has scored about 57 points. So these are the kind of points you may be looking at drafting a RB as your flex player. There are TE who were not drafted who should score 80 or more points. If everyone drafted a 3rd TE that would be 48 drafted. TE 48 scored 56 points last season and 63 points in 2014 which is about the same or better than RB 64. WR 81 to 93 scored more points than RB 64 last season. WR 81 to 96 scored more than RB 64 in 2014. In 2016 there were 36 TE drafted. TE 36 scored an average of 92 points over the last 2 seasons. Jacob Tamme scored 189 points in this format last season. So for the flex spot you have a combination of more upside and a higher floor filling that spot with a WR or TE compared to a RB. It still comes down to the particular player, and Morris may outperform RB 64 points significantly. I am just saying that you have better odds of landing a higher scoring WR or TE late in the draft compared to a RB.
  11. The Bengals have been remarkably consistent with how many rushing attempts they will give Hill which is about 220. In 2013 this is exactly how many carries the law firm had as well. A quick projection for Hill would be 220 rushing attempts 4.3 ypc 946 yards 10 TD 25 targets 20 receptions 144 yards. This is worth 169 points in standard (RB 16 in 2013 RB 14 in 2014 RB 10 in 2015)) and 189 points in PPR (RB 19 in 2013 RB 16 in 2014 RB 15 in 2015) So a mid to high RB 2 This production is very dependent on double digit TD and TD scoring is usually difficult to predict. If Hill only scores 7 or 8 TD for example (151 and 171 points respectively) that would be RB 19, 16, 16 in standard or RB 25, 20, 22 in PPR which is getting closer to RB 3 range. As far as people still giving Fred a hard time for the roster poison comments, He was wrong in 2014 when he said that because Hill had a very useful second half of his rookie season. He was spot on for Hills performance last season on a game by game basis: Standard 18.3 points 4.1 points 2.1 points 24 points 2.5 points 12.9 points 6.8 points 5.2 points 2 points 16.5 points 10 points 15.8 points 2.4 points 15.1 points 6.1 points 17.5 points So there were 6 games where he was worth starting. He was a liability in 8 of his games scoring 6.8 points or less. If he didn't score any TD he was not worth starting. He scored 9 of his 11 TD in four games which is only 25% of them.
  12. I like to zig when other zag as well. However being contrarian is not how you win leagues. You win leagues by scoring more points than your competition. If you can do something different and that leads to a competitive advantage then it makes sense. Doing something different just to be different does not, although it is still fun.
  13. Morris is a guy I would have picked over Johnathan WIlliams. I have barely even watched Williams, I have just heard several people say good things about him. I don't think I have heard anyone say they like Alex Collins more than Williams, and I think Collins is a pretty decent RB. Happy to add Jocob Tamme the most hated player in the NFL and apparently fantasy circles as well for my flex.
  14. I already wasted enough time not appreciating his play on words. I guess this just flew over your head. Not the worst joke I have ever cringed at, just one of the worst one recently. Williams might not get another chance in the NFL and that is on him for not staying in shape. His actions suggest he doesn't care about being a good football player. It just seems mean to be kicking the guy with all the fat jokes when he is already at the end of his rope, that's all.