Biabreakable

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  1. Yeah VBD principles do still apply. I just don't think that is as relevant in total points format as it is in head to head formats. Some folks rely on points per game as the basis of their player evaluation, which is also more applicable to head to head formats, but not as much in total points.
  2. I appreciate a good ramble. The draft is done now so a good time to talk about strategy, what worked? What didn't? I consider FF especially in a total points format to be a lot about risk management and playing the odds. Last season only 8 RB made the top 100 scorers in this format. Only 39 RB scored over 100 points. In 2014 11 RB finished in the top 100 and 35 scored over 100 points. Last season 37 WR finished in the top 100. 74 of them scored over 100 points. In 2014 33 WR finished in the top 100 and 77 of them scored over 100 points. Value Based Drafting does not matter as much in total points format as it does in head to head leagues. The odds are against you drafting RB in the top 100 picks in this format. We must draft 64 RB. RB 64 the last two seasons has scored about 57 points. So these are the kind of points you may be looking at drafting a RB as your flex player. There are TE who were not drafted who should score 80 or more points. If everyone drafted a 3rd TE that would be 48 drafted. TE 48 scored 56 points last season and 63 points in 2014 which is about the same or better than RB 64. WR 81 to 93 scored more points than RB 64 last season. WR 81 to 96 scored more than RB 64 in 2014. In 2016 there were 36 TE drafted. TE 36 scored an average of 92 points over the last 2 seasons. Jacob Tamme scored 189 points in this format last season. So for the flex spot you have a combination of more upside and a higher floor filling that spot with a WR or TE compared to a RB. It still comes down to the particular player, and Morris may outperform RB 64 points significantly. I am just saying that you have better odds of landing a higher scoring WR or TE late in the draft compared to a RB.
  3. The Bengals have been remarkably consistent with how many rushing attempts they will give Hill which is about 220. In 2013 this is exactly how many carries the law firm had as well. A quick projection for Hill would be 220 rushing attempts 4.3 ypc 946 yards 10 TD 25 targets 20 receptions 144 yards. This is worth 169 points in standard (RB 16 in 2013 RB 14 in 2014 RB 10 in 2015)) and 189 points in PPR (RB 19 in 2013 RB 16 in 2014 RB 15 in 2015) So a mid to high RB 2 This production is very dependent on double digit TD and TD scoring is usually difficult to predict. If Hill only scores 7 or 8 TD for example (151 and 171 points respectively) that would be RB 19, 16, 16 in standard or RB 25, 20, 22 in PPR which is getting closer to RB 3 range. As far as people still giving Fred a hard time for the roster poison comments, He was wrong in 2014 when he said that because Hill had a very useful second half of his rookie season. He was spot on for Hills performance last season on a game by game basis: Standard 18.3 points 4.1 points 2.1 points 24 points 2.5 points 12.9 points 6.8 points 5.2 points 2 points 16.5 points 10 points 15.8 points 2.4 points 15.1 points 6.1 points 17.5 points So there were 6 games where he was worth starting. He was a liability in 8 of his games scoring 6.8 points or less. If he didn't score any TD he was not worth starting. He scored 9 of his 11 TD in four games which is only 25% of them.
  4. I like to zig when other zag as well. However being contrarian is not how you win leagues. You win leagues by scoring more points than your competition. If you can do something different and that leads to a competitive advantage then it makes sense. Doing something different just to be different does not, although it is still fun.
  5. Morris is a guy I would have picked over Johnathan WIlliams. I have barely even watched Williams, I have just heard several people say good things about him. I don't think I have heard anyone say they like Alex Collins more than Williams, and I think Collins is a pretty decent RB. Happy to add Jocob Tamme the most hated player in the NFL and apparently fantasy circles as well for my flex.
  6. I already wasted enough time not appreciating his play on words. I guess this just flew over your head. Not the worst joke I have ever cringed at, just one of the worst one recently. Williams might not get another chance in the NFL and that is on him for not staying in shape. His actions suggest he doesn't care about being a good football player. It just seems mean to be kicking the guy with all the fat jokes when he is already at the end of his rope, that's all.
  7. I don't think those numbers are particularly good, just putting that information out there for purpose of comparison. His receiving numbers are good from an efficiency perspective but it is pretty low volume. The rushing stats are not very good at all, when he got 132 carries his YPC dropped significantly, which generally happens with all players. I mostly just noticed this guy because he has the same last name as DeAndre Washington and high catch rate. 2015 was the only year he had good yards per target stats. I don't think any RB has the job locked down in Detroit, so I thought he was worth a closer look.
  8. That is certainly possible. I just wouldn't expect the yards to come from running the ball (although maybe I am surprised). As a rookie Bernard had 71 targets 56 receptions 514 yards. So getting back to that would get you most of the way there. I could see Bernards targets possibly being as high as 80. One problem however is that in 2013 the Bengals threw the ball 587 times. This was when Gruden was the offensive coordinator. He likes to throw the ball a lot more. So thinking about that.. perhaps Marvin Lewis is more flexible as far as what the OC does with the offense. However he changed from this, more passing and also more hurry up no huddle was used in 2013 to a more conservative slower paced offense, which does help the defense. In 2014 the Benglas only threw 503 times. Bernard played in 13 games and had 59 targets. If you pro rate the 3 games missed, this works out to 72 targets, which is very similar to the 71 targets he had as a rookie. Even though the team threw the ball 84 less times. Looking at the percentage of targets Bernard has had. 2013 12% 2014 14.4% 2015 13% In 2014 the Bengals did not have Marvin Jones who was injured, Eifert missed 15 games, AJ Green missed 3 games. So that explains the higher market share of targets for Bernard in this situation, as the next best targets besides Green were Sanu of Gresham. This season may lead to a higher market share of targets for Bernard as they have lost Jones and Sanu, it is unknown how much Eifert will play. They did add LaFell and rookie Boyd who strikes me as a better player than Sanu. LaFell's best trait is his blocking in my opinion, so I see him being used more in this way, to help block for Bernard and Boyd on the perimeter. So maybe this is shaping up to be similar to 2014 in some ways and that causes Bernards targets to be higher. Even at 14% of the targets Bernard would need the Bengals to throw the ball a bit more to surpass 72 targets in 2016. The 3 year average of market share for Bernard is 13%. To have 10 more receptions than last season, Bernard would need 78 targets at his career catch rate of 75% I could definitely see that happening, it would be a ceiling type of expectation however. He has a career yards per reception of 9. So 10 more receptions would be 90 yards. Bernard is efficient enough that I think he deserves more opportunity. But the coaches have not seen it that way it seems. When Andy Dalton was out Bernard did not perform well at all.
  9. You have a starter. I think. I might have a starter, but he has a borderline HOF RB trying to take his job. I wonder how much Chris Thompson can do if Washington has no other options? There are some players in camp right now that I didn't even realize were still in the league.
  10. Thanks? Next time I want to read someone trying to be funny but failing I will look him up.
  11. I wonder if that is the ideal use of the flex spot? As always depends on the player. Perkins or Alf could be worth that spot and more if things go their way. There is the blocking factor that works against us poor souls still trying to fill out our RB group. I am not expecting much from Johnathan Williams, but he could surprise I suppose.
  12. Since Ben only used 2014 and 2015 data for his article I hardly think that is a large enough sample to define something as rare.
  13. Whoever wrote that isn't as funny as they think they are.
  14. You don't sound in a mood for silver linings, but they did play against one of the better offensive lines in the league. They are playing wide nine so the LB play is pretty important as the ends will be so far outside.
  15. Stinkin Ref, I really liked the Kenny Stills pick as I wish I would have had him ahead of Malcolm Mitchell. Another of your picks where I second guess my decision is picking Kevin White ahead of Phillip Dorsett. I have thought about this quite a bit since then and I think Dorsett is the better pick for 2016. Great value at pick 101. I had never drafted Kevin White in any format before, so I got pretty excited about it at first but I think Dorsett ends up being the better choice because of QB play and a better chance at extra games. Solid draft and good values with many of your picks I think.