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Biabreakable

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  1. Yeah Cooper Kupp is great in any time frame or dissection of his game. All I did was look at the top 24 WR from 2019 (yes thats what I meant, I have just typed 2020 a lot lately) and looked at their age as a rookie. The guys I listed were 23 or older as rookies. There is nothing out of date about that. Now with the college performance you can say they broke out at an earlier age even though they were old relatively speaking for their rookie seasons. I kind of don't understand why Calvin Ridley doesn't meet the break out age criteria anyways. He had 89 receptions 1045 yards and 7 TD as a freshman, his age 21 season. It tells me there is something wrong with how these things are cut off and partitioned. That is pretty impressive if triangulating these 3 data points gets you to a -place that is more predictive than the NFL draft. Of course it should as it has the strength of that data plus these other two metrics.
  2. Why would I need to do that? The averages are the same each year. Yes missed games applicable to all players. Mike Evans missed 3 games and a couple other top WR missed one game. Most of the top 24 played 16. Well as far as I can tell about 40% of the top 12 WR from 2020 do not meet at lest one of the criteria. Based on break out age Michael Thomas, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Lockett, Kenny Golliday, Calvin Ridley, Terry McClaurin, John Brown, were all 23 years old or older as rookies. I don't know if your sample is including John Brown for example who went to a small school and had issues getting started with his career. If the players only need to meet one of the criteria to be counted by you I think you casting a pretty wide net as far as being able to excuse the player for not meeting one of the categories in how you are counting them. In my opinion such an analysis would be stronger with a 3rd data point (like NFL draft position) but I would only call hits as players who met all 3 categories, not just one of them.
  3. Calvin Ridley finished 2018 as the 27th WR overall despite missing 3 games. As mentioned in the above post one can only see Ridleys second season in the league as him making progress, with possibly more progress yet to come although I think his upside is always limited with Julio taking more of the opportunities. If we pro rate the 3 games he missed at the end of the 2019 season he was on pace for 114 targets 78 receptions 1066 yards 8.6 TD 2 rushing attempts 34 yards which is 236 fantasy points. This is similar to Tyler Lockett, Jarvis Landry or Bobby Woods last season. WR 12 in PPR leagues have averaged 241 points over the last 3 seasons. So he is within striking range of that despite Julio. Continues to be the thorn in the side of market share and break out age truthers.
  4. In my experience it is just plain hard to sell a TE. The dynamics of cutting to 16 players completely squeezes out guys who have unrealized potential.
  5. I love Jonnu Smith and I am hoping he ends up being more productive for fantasy in years ahead, but the fact remains that he hasn't delivered yet. For the guys ZWK compares him to as far as being productive after their 1st 3 seasons in the league, Walker seems the closest comparison as he had Vernon Davis ahead of him for his first few seasons and didn't get enough opportunity until he changed teams. I could see Jonnu being a 4th year break out I guess. No reason to project him higher than he has been though really. The main thing I have always liked about Jonnu is his versatility. His blocking ability may be working against him in some ways compared to a TE whos only plus ability is as a receiver.
  6. Draft Breakdown used to have a section of videos by position that I have watched in years past. I am not seeing that they have much posted for 2020 yet. Mostly I just search the player on youtube and watch them that way. If someone has a better resource for this I would be interested to know as well. I have spent the last several years watching lots of offensive linemen because of the Vikings needs there. Its not easy.
  7. Sorry for the delay in posting this. I've been pretty sick all weekend.
  8. The purpose of these polls is to get an idea of who the majority of voters prefer at a specific pick in a rookie draft. These drafts assume that all 2020 rookie players are available. For the 2QB poll there may be some variance in scoring. Some may be standard, others PPR. I think a lot of 2QB leagues may involve IDP as well so these differences are not accounted for here. Only looking at the offensive skill players in the two most common formats and also 2QB leagues, to get a sense of where the QB are valued relative to other positions, when there is actually scarcity at the QB position. For the TE premium poll this assumes the scoring format is PPR because that is what these leagues almost always are. The polls assume 12 teams and likely 24-26 roster spots as the most common format for dynasty. Short bench dynasty leagues should only care about the top 6-12 rookie players. If a player isn't listed that you would vote for please vote other and then post the name of the player that you voted for so that player can be added to the next poll. Also please suggest players not listed that you would vote for soon, even if not on the particular poll that is active. I populated the lists based on DLF rankings and ZWK rankings if anyone has a better suggestion, such as a compilation of multiple lists or something like that, much appreciated. miqws list last year was very good for this. Thanks everyone for voting. Discussion welcome. Results so far Standard 1.01 D'Andre Swift RB Georgia 44.8% 1.02 Jonathan Taylor RB Wisconsin 41.8% 1.03 J.K. Dobbins RB Ohio State 54% 1.04 Jerry Jeudy WR Alabama 39% 1.05 CeeDee Lamb WR Oklahoma 63% 1.06 Cam Akers RB Florida State 39% 1.07 Tee Higgins WR Clemson 31% 1.08 Laviska Shenault Jr WR Colorado 44% 1.09 Jalen Reagor WR TCU 19% 1.10 Zack Moss, RB Utah 35% PPR 1.01 D'Andre Swift RB Georgia 59.7% 1.02 Jerry Jeudy WR Alabama 37.9% 1.03 CeeDee Lamb WR Oklahoma 39% 1.04 J.K. Dobbins RB Ohio State 48% 1.05 Jonathan Taylor RB Wisconsin 73% 1.06 Tee Higgins WR Clemson 39% 1.07 Cam Akers RB Florida State 40% 1.08 Laviska Shenault Jr WR Colorado 59% 1.09 Jalen Reagor WR TCU 22% (tie with Ruggs broken based on tiebreaker poll, Reagor also won the standard and TE premium poll) 1.10 Henry Ruggs III WR Alabama 30% 2 QB 1.01 Joe Burrow QB LSU 53.7% 1.02 D'Andre Swift RB Georgia 41.8% 1.03 Tua Tagovailoa QB Alabama 43% 1.04 J.K. Dobbins RB Ohio State 18% 1.05 Jonathan Taylor RB Wisconsin 21% 1.06 Jerry Jeudy WR Alabama 24% 1.07 CeeDee Lamb WR Oklahoma 33% 1.08 Justin Herbert, QB Oregon 44% 1.09 Cam Akers RB Florida State 23% 1.10 Tee Higgins WR Clemson 24% TE Premium 1.01 D'Andre Swift RB Georgia 50.8% 1.02 Jonathan Taylor RB Wisconsin 27.3% 1.03 J.K. Dobbins RB Ohio State 33% 1.04 Jerry Jeudy WR Alabama 32% 1.05 CeeDee Lamb WR Oklahoma 42% 1,06 Tee Higgins WR Clemson 24% 1.07 Cam Akers RB Florida State 42% 1.08 Laviska Shenault Jr WR Colorado 32% 1.09 Jalen Reagor WR TCU 19% 1.10 Henry Ruggs III WR Alabama 13% (tie with Zach Moss broken based on PPR poll) Links to previous polls 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.07 1.08 1.09 1.10
  9. FYi I am not against the use of analytics at all. i am against drawing erroneous conclusions from it though.
  10. Not being condescending at all. I am sorry if you take it that way. I used to track BMI numbers for soldiers when I was in the Army. Those numbers are changing all the time. A .5 difference in BMI is 5 or less pounds.
  11. What is the actual difference between 25. 5 BMI and 25.7 BMI? The player could take a dump and cause that difference. So why do you care about it so much?
  12. 29 votes in now. Interesting race between Moss and Edwards-Helair in the standard poll right now.
  13. I would eat my hat if Zimmer gives up defensive play calling. He has 3 defensive coordinators now. LOL
  14. Yeah their focus is more on making projections for the next season. Not the players entire career. I tried using your terminology when searching for an answer and came across that. I know it doesn't really answer the question you were asking though. That is something I think a long term study can answer, that yearly projections do not. I have found that the yards are the main thing that matters. In PPR the targets and receptions do matter a bit more. That said I think you can use the data to try to find what things matter as I suggested in previous post. There are some advantages to PPG stats compared to raw per season stats. Especially for players who have played full seasons or close to it before at a similar level, its not that hard to think they would be as good over more games if they had not been injured. The problem with PPG stats is if you pro rate too many games, I don't think that is going to be accurate moving forward. I have seen too many times players being projected off of 4 or 8 game samples never come close to those PPG numbers again. I would prefer to have a WR 3 who performs as a WR one for a few games provided I might be able to identify those match ups and to start the player in those games. Realistically that isn't an easy thing to do when the WR isn't performing at that level consistently. If you have other good WR you might not ever start that WR 3 who has a few big games to get there. Its a question of consistency vs upside once again. A consistent WR 3 scorer might not ever crack the line up because of lack of upside.