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About Biabreakable

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  1. Congratulations. What did you win?
  2. Wide receivers at the top did not score as much in 2016 as they have been the last two seasons, the median range scoring for WR was slightly down as well. I think rankings for a start up draft or auction should be different than rankings for already established teams. If I were to focus solely on one or the other, I would end up with some pretty different lists. While the RB certainly have a lot of value because of scarcity at the position compared to WR, they also have shorter useful careers. Elliot would be a rare exception right now as a RB I might actually project to have four good seasons left in his career. Although DJ and Bell are not old, they already have reached the age where RB peak and start to show some decline. A RB averages only two top 12 seasons in their career and those seasons usually occur during their first six seasons. Bell and Johnson may decline sooner than people are thinking when talking about taking these players highly in a start up situation and if/when they do you will be leaving a big hole in your roster that drafting a younger WR likely won't.
  3. Thanks for the list Zypros. I am curious about why you do not like John Ross? I haven't watched Ross at all yet, I just note that he has been mentioned in a lot of top 5 and top 10 lists recently and I was meaning to watch him soon because of that. What are some flaws in Ross's game that cause you to think he wont be a successful player for fantasy?
  4. I don't even follow college football much but I have been interested in Perine since 2014.
  5. This is probably the third time in two weeks menobrown has approached me with statements similar to the above, For what? The only point is to try to prove me wrong, nothing else. Then he calls me petty. Well look in the mirror. I misspoke if I didn't put a qualifying statement, which doesn't really matter except that Keenan Allen has missed so many games in the NFL that I still have to go back to college evaluation about him to try to complete the picture on him still after he has been in the league four seasons.
  6. I said a top WR in his class, as in top 3. By basically everyone until he didn't participate in the combine. This is a truly stupid thing to argue about, but ok here are some examples since you seem completely unaware of this (which I think you know better than this but act like you don't) Matt Waldman apears to have had Allen number two. Mike Mayock pre 2013 top 5 Dan Kadar pre 2013 draft WR rankings Chris Burke Sports Illustrated Your previous statement suggests that what I am talking about was not common and pretty universally accepted knowledge. Like I am from another planet or something. I'm not and it wasn't.
  7. Well either you are not remembering very well or you don't listen to many people then.
  8. JWB thanks for the discussion regarding the Chargers offense. After considering your comments (and I didn't ignore any of them, just didn't comment on them all) I have decided to revise my median range projection for Allen to 120 targets. This causes him to fall a full tier in my dynasty rankings (still a work in progress). Other WR in his tier would be Brandin Cooks, Doug Baldwin, Jarvis Landry, Dez Bryant, DeMarius Thomas, Michael Thomas. I previously had Allen in the same tier as Watkins, Robinson, Hopkins, AJ Green, Hilton, Cooper. I hope you are right as I am not entirely comfortable with this downgrade of Allen. One of the things I thought about recently regarding Allen is how he was considered to be the best WR of the 2013 draft and while most of the other WR from that draft class have busted, Allen has shown himself to be very good when he is healthy. I think people were right about his relative talent and ability. Keenan Allen wasn't drafted until the 3rd round of the 2013 draft because of injury concerns. If not for those concerns, I think he would have been the first WR drafted, or at least 3rd (after Austin and Hopkins). if not for the injury concerns, which have turned out to be legitimate as Allen has missed a lot of time already in his young career. It is a difficult way to try to value a player. He is a 1st round talent when he plays, but he fell to the 3rd round of the draft for a good reason.
  9. I don't think it is a very easy choice between Kelce and Reed. Kelce has less injury risk in his favor but Reed puts up stronger numbers when he plays. To me it is so close that who you choose tells something about your tolerance for risk. Generally I am willing to take risks to gain an advantage, but in this case I think I would prefer to have Kelce, but at the same time, it is so close, I guess I would like to know what others think about that. If both players were in the poll, then we could see who the community prefers between these two, if you only add one of them, you won't. I wouldn't vote for either yet, but I think both Kelce and Reed are likely in the same tier as the other players available I would choose ahead of them. Gronk is the last player left of the current tier before the next one starts for me, although I do struggle with the question if Cooks and Allen should be in this tier as well.
  10. I disagree 100% They have Alfred Morris, who is better in pass protection than Peterson is and they have no need whatsoever for Peterson's services. If they did sign Peterson it would be a slap in the face to Elliot and their whole front office spending the fourth overall pick to get him. It makes sense for NO ONE involved, not even Peterson.
  11. I appreciate your insight on the Chargers JWB. I was only able to catch a few of their games last year. It might be interesting to look at Allens use when Woodhead was healthy, and see if there was a difference in his targets or not. As far as the 2013 season being the model the Chargers will try to use in 2017 this was Allens rookie season, so not a good example of how he will perform now, as he has gained experience and developed his skill set. The players such as Gates and Woodhead were closer to their primes back then than they are now.
  12. JWB how many total offensive plays and passing attempts will the Chargers have under this scenario? Which btw all seems reasonable for each item in isolation having an effect on Allens opportunity. It seems unlikely that all of these things would align themselves in one season though. That would be as you describe a worst case scenario for Allen. I really doubt that Benjamin and Inman improve on their numbers from last season when Allen was injured. He will get a lot of those same looks when healthy and they won't, especially if they are also playing a lot of 2 TE. If they do scale down the passing attempts as a result of running the ball more successfully and frequently, and also improving on defense enough to be able keep scores low enough to keep running the ball. This could be a winning formula for the Chargers as it has been for a lot of teams. Dallas and the Dolphins being some recent examples. This would definitely limit the opportunity for receivers compared to recent years. Woodhead returning or another pass catching RB (McCaffrey?) replacing him would I think have the biggest impact on Allen getting high target volume as well as the percentage of those targets conversion, as that RB may get some of those looks instead. What I see when looking at the offense from 2013-2016 is that when Woodhead was healthy and involved with the offense that they had more total plays, so an overall benefit to the offense, that doesn't take away opportunities from other players as much, because it adds more total plays to the offense. In 2013 with Wiz as the OC they had 1060 plays 544 passing attempts 486 rushing attempts. When Woodhead hasn't been a major part of the offense, they are running only 1000 plays but generally throwing the ball quite a bit more. Anyhow the floor for Rivers looks like 550 passing attempts in 2017 even in a scenario where the Chargers run the ball closer to 500 times. The yards per reception numbers may improve due to play action being more effective and some more explosive plays in the passing game as a result of that as well, which could benefit Allen. If Allen gets 25% of the targets at 550 attempts, that is 137 targets, which is very close to the 140 median target rage of previous projection. Same scenario at 600 passing attempts would be 150 targets. I would expect Rivers to throw the ball somewhere between 550 and 600 times, even if they are running the ball well. There are quite a few ways I could see Allen only having 120 targets in 2017 season, which might cause him to only be a WR 2 or possibly a WR 3 for fantasy, but most of those would include him missing a few games and I would still expect his per game numbers to be consistent and pretty strong.
  13. He was. Both of those RB were more talented than Richard or Murray by a lot in my opinion though.
  14. The idea of the Vikings adding Eddie Lacy has been kicked around a bit as one possibility for the Vikings. Personally I don't want them to sign Lacy because of some things I have read about Lacy not really caring about football. I don't think he would fit in with the culture Mike Zimmer wants. There is a history of the Vikings signing Packers and Bears players and I think a strategy of some teams and division rivals. Because they study the player so much in preparing to go against them, they have a better sense of how that player might fit with their team. I think it is also seen as an advantage to get that player off of division rivals team, if the team had trouble defending against them, which the Vikings certainly did have a lot of trouble with Greg Jennings prior to signing him. They have had problems stopping Lacy as well. On the flip side of that Peterson could go to the Packers for some of the same reasons. Just seems unlikely to me as I don't see how he would fit in their offense, with what Rodgers wants to do. Lacy may actually be a better blocker and receiving option than Peterson is. I kind of think the Packers will keep Lacy, as he has at least shown some happiness about being a part of their community, even if he doesn't really care that much about football.
  15. Do you think Richard will be the lead RB (60% or more of the snaps and RB opportunities) in 2017? Or will another RB be added or Murray retained, and them splitting 3 ways again?