Biabreakable

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  1. Uncertainty can certainly do that. I see it as a positive as I am certain that Rex Ryan isn't good for an NFL offense. There is the unknown about the QB as well and some other players in similar range who have better QB play, such as Hilton Cooks and Baldwin. I kind of like Cardale Jones though.
  2. I don't see how this can be viewed as a negative considering the coaching staff they just fired in Rex Ryan and Greg Roman. 2016 Rex Ryan 474 passing attempts 492 rushing attempts. 2015 Rex Ryan 465 passing attempts 509 rushing attempts. 2014 Doug Marone 579 passing attempts 402 rushing attempts. Sean McDermott hasn't been a HC or coached on the offensive side of the ball before, so hard to say what his tendencies might be. I would assume a balanced offense without knowing any tendency. Rick Dennison has been a OC for Denver and Houston running a version of Mike Shanahans offense. The lowest I see the passing offense ranked is 26th in attempts and 25th in yardage his first time as an OC in 2006. The Broncos started Jake Plummer and rookie Jay Cutler that season and the offense overall wasn't very good. The passing offense improved to 13th in passing yards 2007 and 3rd in passing yards 2008. In Houston the lowest the passing offense finished was 18th. Most recently he has been the OC for the Broncos in 2015 and 2016. I think there is some reason to be optimistic about the Bills offense moving towards the average in passing attempts which was 571 in 2016,the offense the last two seasons for the Bills has thrown the ball about 100 fewer times than average.
  3. We are on the 15th over pick now. Two rookies have already been selected. Robinson and Hopkins are already gone and I would take Watkins over both of them and the rookies, so it doesn't seem early to me. Watkins as a 21 year old rookie had 128 targets 65 receptions 982 yards 6 TD. This was with Kyle Orton at QB for 12 games and EJ Manuel for the other four. In 2015 Watkins was injured in 3rd game and missed games 4 and 5. He then came back for game 6. Apparantly he wasn't fully healthy yet on his return because he missed game 7.and then they had a bye. After the bye he played in 9 games and had 78 targets 49 receptions 900 yards 7 TD or 8.7 targets 5.4 receptions 100 yards .8 TD per game during the second half of the 2015 season. This was good for WR 4 over this time frame that season. Over 16 games this would be 139 targets 86 receptions 1600 yards 13 TD. In 2016 he was injured at the beginning of the season but he tried to play through it for the first two games. He didn't play well while injured and they shut him down hoping he could return later on in the season. He returned to the lineup for the last 6 games of the season but wasn't as effective and likely still limited due to his injury, also by this time the Bills were pretty much eliminated from the playoffs as well. He only had one really good game against Miami in game 15. It was pretty much a lost season due to the injury. I think Watkins has shown enough of how good he can be in the NFL to think he will build on his second seasons numbers and have a very strong career. He will be 24 years old for the 2017 season. He is actually younger than many of the rookies from last season. Who do you think is a better choice? I can see Hilton ahead of him because he has been more consistent, hard for me to argue that one. Possibly Keenan Allen might be favored over Watkins, but he has missed a lot of games to injury as well. There just are not many WR who can match his ability to make explosive plays. Watkins has averaged 16.1 yards per reception on 153 receptions, that is very very good and not a fluke of small sample size. The upside is enormous if he can stay healthy a full season.
  4. I have been voting for Watkins the past few but it is hard to argue that Hilton isn't in a better situation and likely a wiser choice. I think Hilton is in the same tier as AJ Green and Cooper. I have Watkins, Allen, Robinson, Hopkins and Cooks in this tier as well, but I think it is easier to argue for Hilton belonging in this tier than the younger guys who haven't proven it consistently enough yet.
  5. What do you think top 15 numbers look like? 96 receptions 1152 yards 8 TD = 259 points in PPR. 2016 Julio Jones scored 263 points Michael Thomas 261 Melvin Gordon 259 Doug Baldwin 257 2015 Calvin Johnson 265 Rob Gronkowski 259 Eric Decker 257 Brandin Cooks 257 2014 TY Hilton 263 Golden Tate 262 Jamal Charles 259 All of the above players have scored in the top 15 or near that in those seasons if you don't count the QB. WR scoring was stronger overall in 2014 and Tate was only WR 13. Gronk and the top RB worth more than the WR from a VBD perspective, but I think that is largely offset by the WR longer term career value. 259 points is 70 points higher than the WR 36 baseline of 189 points for the last 3 seasons. I agree those yards per reception numbers aren't sexy and always hard to say with TDs what will happen.
  6. Yeah for simplicity sake I just went with 150 targets, but if I look deeper into it (coaching changes may lead to more rushing attempts for example as pointed out by JWB) maybe that median range should be something more like 140 instead. I think JWB mentioned 120 targets as a floor for Allen over 16 games, so maybe 120-140-160 targets should be the range for him. I agree 75% catch rate is exceptional for a WR and not the rate I would project for a player increasing overall volume of targets either, I would expect that to be lower as the average is a lot lower than that. However Wes Welker did have pretty much a 75% catch rate three seasons in a row from 2007 to 2009. He also did it in 2014 with Denver but on a much smaller sample size. Doug Baldwin has had that catch rate the last two seasons. It isn't impossible, just seems improbable that it would stay this high, you need a good QB and the types of routes the player wins on has a lot to do with that as well. Jarvis Landry was at 75% his rookie season, but has since only been at 66% and then 71% his next two seasons. Landrys yards per reception have gone up each of those 2 years as well as the targets being higher. Some other players to do that recently were Jamison Crowder, Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley did it is 2014 and 2016. Almost all of these examples do cap out at around 120 targets however, when targets go higher than this, the catch percentage tends to be lower than 75% For Allen I would use his career catch rate of 69% which at 140 targets would be 96 receptions.
  7. I just wanted to say in arguing against Eifert the past couple of days and in listening to peoples pro stances for him that I have changed my mind about him a bit. I still think he is a bit over rated but that kind of happens to players when there are no other clearly better options. My first impression of Jeffrey with the 49ers is yuck. But I suppose with the new coaching staff and GM think is a change of direction and if Jeffrey were the focal point of their offense he could put up some strong numbers. Things could turn out not so well for him with a new team also. Jeffrey is perhaps the most important player in fantasy right now that I am just not sure what is going to happen with him. If he does stay in Chicago there is some uncertainty as well. With the expectation that Jeffrey is with another team, then having White and Meridith in the top 100 makes snese, as his departure would help both of them. If he stayed with the Bears, then you have to guess which of the two will be the WR 2 behind Jeffrey.
  8. I wasn't nor was anyone else, so I don't understand the point of your post. Ranksing should be independent of average draft position, which obviously should be a consideration when drafting. Ranking a player higher than their ADP does not mean you have to draft them ahead of their ADP.
  9. Thats fine I like it here. Coronas in the cooler if you feel like stopping by.
  10. Yeah who needs WR 11 in this format. Fitzgerald is an excellent example of why you shouldn't just write a player off because in your view they are too old. He will be 34 next season and close to retirement, but they guy is and has been a great player and worthy of top 100 consideration, even at his age.
  11. As I do think this is the beginning of a new tier, it would be a good time to do so I think.
  12. Yeah I am definitely not settled on the order of either of those groups yet.
  13. menobrown I think your post is really overstated, i dunno like sarcasm out of control of something, but I tried to understand what you are getting at, and perhaps it is that you don't think the Chargers will pass the ball enough to the WR for two of them to be good? Or for either of them to be as good as they have been? 2016 1014 580 passing attempts 398 rushing attempts 2015 1100 plays 667 passing attempts 393 rushing attempts 2014 1009 plays 574 passing attempts 398 rushing attempts I could see a scenario where Gordon is healthy all season and playing well enough to enable to Chargers to reduce their passing attempts, to perhaps 550 but that would be a departure from the 607 passing attempts over the last 3 seasons. As far as the total targets for Chargers WR obviously that is affected by the WR missing half the games in those seasons and Gates does have a large role in the offense, but it isn't clear to me if he will be back in 2017 or not. That might be changing. Vincent Jackson hasn't been a part of their offense since 2011 so I hardly see how they used him back then with different coaches and players would be relevant to what they will do in 2017. There is a huge difference between the offense in 2015 and the other two years. 100 plays and 100 passing attempts. The main difference I see in the 2015 offense is that they had Danny Woodhead who had 106 targets and 80 receptions in 2015. Looking back to 2013 when Woodhead was a big part of ther offense as well, 2013 1060 plays 544 passing attempts 486 rushing attempts. Woodhead had 88 targets 76 receptions. Matthews was actually healthy most of that season, and so they were able to run the ball more. If Gordon stays healthy and plays well all year, and the Chargers add a second RB who could contribute a lot, I could see the passing attempts going down, but for the most part I expect Rivers to be throwing the ball as much as he has been recently.
  14. I think I for the most part agree with Freds post above that Williams is perhaps a bit low on the overall list as I would expect him to be the Chargers 2nd WR in targets after Allen. I would likely put his median range targets at 100 for 2017 or stay the same, with some improved efficiency. I don't really think Allen is too high or his volume or production were that fluky though. He has missed games, which makes this somewhat problematic trying to project for him though. 2014 8.64 targets per game (138) second season 2015 11.1 targets per game (178) third season I would project Allen for 150 targets based on the above. That would be the median projection, with upside for 170 targets (like 2015) and downside of 130 targets over 16 games. He has missed a bunch of games, so you might ding him for that. His catch rate is higher than most WR but his yards per reception are low, many of Allens targets are lower depth of target and therefore higher completion percentage. Comparing his targets to Julio Jones is apples to oranges as Jones is more often being thrown to deep and other lower percentage plays than Allen usually will. It shows in the difference between their yards per reception. Looking at the last 3 seasons Allen had 7.2 yards per target, which I would say is below average for a WR. Jones had 9.8 yards per target which is one of the best over this time frame. DeSean Jackson had 11.1 which is the highest I see of (relevant) WR over this time frame. Allen has scored 22.1 points per game over the last 3 years and only Antonio Brown is higher than Allen in this category.