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The Ref

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About The Ref

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  • Birthday 07/01/1975

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  1. Sometimes you can be right and wrong. sold “it all” and went short. Not perfectly timed but I’m up on my short so far. but somehow the internals of the market have caused my personal stocks to be up ~10% so I would have been better off holding. cant own em all I guess
  2. Nice trade. It was never as bad as they made it out to be. At 17 CCL isn’t the same easy trade it was at 8.
  3. Well here we are in the 3120 neighborhood. This is right where Mancini has called the point to take profits and open shorts.
  4. Worst ending to a movie in my mind was Rising Sun. I’m a Michael Crichton fan who read all his books going into the move back in 1993 so this one irks me more than it should. The entire book was about how rich and powerful Japanese corporations were and even here in America they were above the law. In the book a Japanese employee killed the hooker and ultimately the two cops were able to prove it as the powerful corporation does everything it can to escape justice. In The movie.... I kid you not..... they changed the ending so that it was the one local white lawyer that worked for the company that killed the hooker. They did this because...... wait for it.... powerful Japanese film companies in Hollywood got wind the movie was being made and was worried about how racist an ending it was.
  5. Glad to see it wasn’t just me. Couldn’t have summoned these jerks 8 screen hours ago?
  6. Yes. But I don’t think this should be viewed on a day to day week to week basis. It’s a monthly evaluation of how likely am I to wake up and find out the FDA approved for XYZ and now it’s a 10 bagger basis. fair chance of it I’d say - science seems good.
  7. In the active account, yes. active account is 30% overall.
  8. Just sold it “all”. holding my CYDY and RGR. its been a good run.
  9. Working gets in the way of posting and I don’t like it. I’d like to add a stock to the general Thread conversation here. Real good looking chart and given the current state of the world I’m expecting a big increase of sales. RGR - Sturm Ruger and Company Inc
  10. Of course. Stonks Go up. my by tomorrow AM is going to be AOBC. guns going to do real well
  11. Market is going to tank Monday morning and then go right back up. stonks go up, not down
  12. For what it’s worth @Bossman the fact that worst case happened and you going to skate out of here with a loss but not a huge one shows that you were on the right path in terms of risk vs reward.
  13. This is Boomer thinking but I’ll say it anyway. MGM is ~8B, Draftkings is $12B i can’t get my head around the fact that if you look at Vegas revenue the order of revenue producing games always looks like this.... slots 100 blackjack 50 roulette/craps/other 25 sportsbook 5 and more and more the revenue is in the hotel/food/shows/conventions where it used to be loss leader. So long story short the sportsbook is profitable but it is legitimately the lowest on the totem pole of gaming. Some properties like Westgate and red rock will put a lot into the sportsbook to draw in people. With MGM you get all the hotels and all the other revenues and get get all the other gaming. You get exposure to China. It has a solid balance sheet. Draftkings you have a website. It needs to partner up with local brick and mortar casinos to operate with states. So from an overhead perspective it’s very low but you don’t have a lot of assets either and more importantly it’s all low margin sports betting. Believe it or not there are Winning players in sports and Vegas can on occasion lose with sports. Not going to happen in volume with table games and slots. draftkings is also fighting to get market share away from local bookies. Draftkings you need to post the cash and ultimately because it’s so low Margin they will need to charge more than -110 on a bet (Wyoming lotteery is -120 of not more). Draftkings needs to report all winners which means taxes. Local bookies will extend credit so the player doesn’t have to post. Vinny from the local bar doesn’t report to the IRS. i think long term Draftkings valuation is way way too high at this point and time....... but I said the same about Facebook 1 month after it’s IPO (and I was right).
  14. Easy for me to say but that’s really not “that bad”. its not good but people can loose millions if they are on the wrong side of something like this. if you have done 3 contract cycles you have collected $3.60 already which makes your bankruptcy downside $.20 (sucks to give it all back though).