davearm

Members
  • Content count

    2,582
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

362 Excellent

About davearm

  • Rank
    Footballguy

Contact Methods

  • ICQ
    0

Recent Profile Visitors

3,210 profile views
  1. Taylor could well break the NCAA record for rushing yards as a freshman. He is currently third, behind Ron Dayne and Adrian Peterson. Maybe any old middling 3 star prospect could have done that, but I'm skeptical.
  2. If we're piling on Carroll, challenging the Baldwin non-catch in the 4th quarter, and losing a TO in the process, needs a mention. That was brutal. As the announcers suggested, it was as though he got goaded into it by the fans.
  3. According to the PBP on NFL.com, Seattle called their second TO of the first half with :33 seconds left in the half. So they had one remaining when they ran the fake FG.
  4. All fair points. My only point here is that the decision to run the fake is easy to defend from a probabalistic/EV perspective, if you have a timeout, and if you think the odds on a TD are roughly similar to the odds on getting stuffed/running out of time/fumbling etc.
  5. Probably an oversimplification, but IMO the distance isn't that big a factor. Either the receiver was going to sneak through the line and score easily, or he was going to get stopped at or behind the line. The possibility that the Falcons would get fooled initially but then recover to tackle Willson downfield but short of the endzone seems miniscule.
  6. Why would the probability of a turnover be twice as high as the probability of a TD? Regardless, if you think the success rate is only 1%, and the failure rate is 37%, then obviously it's a bad call. I doubt Carroll had those probabilities in mind and decided to go for it anyway.
  7. I don't need the TD rate to be high. I just need it to be about the same as the probability of not picking up one yard on 4th and 1. So, if it's: 10% TD 80% no TD but a first down and clock stopped 10% no first down OR time runs out... Then the fake is the way to go.
  8. Well as I said at the outset, I'm 100% in agreement if the Seahawks didn't have a timeout left. I didn't know if they did or didn't. You just said they didn't, and I'll take your word for it.
  9. I'm onboard the "stupid call" train 100% if Carroll didn't have a TO in his pocket. That's pretty key. However the Seahawks' objective on running the fake was obviously not to get a first down and a shorter FG try. The objective was to get a TD. It breaks down like this: Best case, the fake FG goes for a TD: +4 points relative to just kicking the FG. Worst case, the fake FG fails to pick up a first down, or the clock runs out: -3 points relative to just kicking the FG. Middle case, you get the first down but not a TD, and kick a shorter FG: 0 points relative to just kicking the FG (actually a bit greater than 0 due to shorter FG attempt). (You'd want to make small adjustments to all of the above numbers to account for the potential to miss either the FG or the PAT.) From there you simply attach probabilities to each case and compute the EV. If the probability on the best case (+4) is >= the probability on the worst case (-3), then running the fake is not only justifiable, it's optimal.
  10. I wouldn't put much stock into last week. These coaches have been watching these guys all year. It's possible Musgrave has been thinking all along, "It's nuts we're playing CJA over Booker". Or he might have been thinking the exact opposite. It didn't really matter what he thought about the RBs while he was the QB coach, though. Now that he's the OC, it obviously does matter.
  11. I am curious which guys out on the WW you figure have better odds of catching some TDs in the next month than Thomas does.
  12. Actually the onus is on you to specify that your comment pertains to short bench standard TD heavy leagues, not on everyone else to figure it out.
  13. The NCAA extracts money from universities? What? The NCAA pays out money to universities. The NCAA is a not for profit, and not a very big one at that (in terms of employees). It takes in massive revenues however, from sponsors and television/media rights buyers. After covering its operating costs, it passes through the rest of those revenues to its member institutions.
  14. Yep. My early-season excitement for a potential flex option gradually ebbed to a Howard handcuff. I dropped Cohen the moment after clicking Accept to deal Howard away.
  15. I don't understand your last sentence. Neither the NFL nor Goodell is being called upon to defend the reasons for the suspension. I'm certain you know that's not what this is about anymore.