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About davearm

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  1. I'm mostly with you on the TD/FG choice, but the bolded is pretty disingenuous. While it's true that if you get one score to tie it, you still need another score to win, the same is true of the other team at that point -- they also need another score to win. So the term "two score game" certainly does not apply equally to a 7 point deficit and a 9-16 point deficit.
  2. Kinda amusing looking back on the "Ertz is done" "Goedert is the play" chatter from 6 weeks ago. TE leaders after 14 weeks are Kelce 1, Ertz 2 -- basically as expected on draft day.
  3. You said KC could "maybe win 10 super bowls". If you're salty because the convo got sidetracked by that, then that's a you problem. Regardless, plenty of people answered your question. The consensus is no.
  4. Weather conditions impact both teams, so I don't have a preference. Maybe the opposing QB would be even more crippled by snow and 40 MPH winds than Mahomes. So your notion that having a dome would necessarily be an advantage for KC is specious at best. Maybe they get a bigger advantage playing outdoors than indoors. Regardless, this talk of "10 super bowls" BECAUSE OF A STADIUM is just complete and utter insanity.
  5. WTF? Seriously? Greatest Show on Turf was 1999-2001. The Rams played in the Edward Jones Dome in STL through the 2015 season.
  6. C'mon man. Having a dome vs an outdoor stadium isn't going to be the differentiator between winning several super bowls and winning none. This just keeps getting more ridiculous. Building a stadium around a particular player or style of play is not a good idea. Both are exceedingly temporary. Earlier you mentioned the Rams. The Greatest Show on Turf lasted three seasons.
  7. Not sure about that. I just had a little fun with the pro-football-reference win probability calculator. Dallas' win probability if they make the FG, and give NE the ball @ NE 25, first and 10 with 6:04 remaining and NE a 4 point lead: 14.2% Dallas' win probability if they make the TD, and give NE the ball @ NE 25, first and 10 with 6:04 remaining and tied: 44.4% Dallas' win probability if they get no points (get stopped OR miss the FG), and give NE the ball @ NE 7, first and 10 with 6:04 remaining and NE a 7 point lead: 6.2% So if they can make the FG at a 95% rate, then by electing to kick, they move their win probability to 13.8% (.142 x .95 + .062 x .05 = .138). Given the above, the breakeven success rate on going for the TD is 20%. (.444 x .2 + .062 x .8 = .138) If you're right that they had a ~35% chance of getting TD, then they should have gone for it, as it would have moved their WP to 19.6%. (.444 x .35 + .062 x .65 = .196) So in the end, (and assuming the 95% FG success rate), the right call for Dallas depends on whether you put their success rate going for it on 4th down above or below 20%.
  8. And yet Monty's average yards after contact of 1.7 is amongst the lowest in the NFL. He ranks #50 out of 51 RBs with 50 or more carries.
  9. FWIW, my moves this week: Drop Jaylen Samuels, add Darrel Williams Drop Brian Hill, add Snell Drop a bye week kicker, add Armstead Still thinking about whether to pull the plug on AJ Green to add Bonnafon. Waiting on AJG practice reports the next few days.
  10. With Mayfield and Rivers FAs in my league, I'm not even sure I'd go with Wentz if my starter (Winston) went down. Given that, seems like he's a drop.
  11. I'd call that rare, not common. What's common is that guys that are healthy enough to play, play. As Herm taught us, "you PLAY to WIN the GAME", and it's true, regardless of your record. Happy to revisit in a few weeks.
  12. The Giants aren't going to "mothball" their best player.
  13. My first thought too. Would be interesting to see where TB stacks up if you could net out points allowed off of turnovers for all 32 teams.