John Lee

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About John Lee

  • Rank
    Footballguy
  • Birthday 11/23/1974

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    https://twitter.com/tipandpick

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    Male
  • Location
    Philly, PA

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  • Favorite NFL Team
    Dallas Cowboys

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  1. Cracking FanDuel: MLB Chapter
  2. I wrote that section...let me look and report back.
  3. Hey DC...many of us are just getting back from our annual retreat, so things might be a bit delayed. That said, I think whatever you're looking for (IVC's, VVC, etc) should be online by tonight.
  4. The FBG crew is headed to Knoxville to crash Joe's pad this weekend and while there is going to be a lot of milkshakes, football, and hijinx, we are going to talk business too. One of the things that continues to evolve on the site is the daily content. If you look at the archives from 2014 through today, you'll note that we have made great strides with regards to what we offer and how it is presented. That said, there is always room for improvement and that is what I'm looking for in this post. Basically, what I'm asking for is the following: 1) What current tools, features, and/or articles are absolute MUST HAVES for you moving into the future as an FBG DFS subscriber? 2) What tools/features would you like to see that are currently missing from the weekly DFS content currently provided? 3) *DM RESPONSES ONLY (PLEASE): If we were to cut articles to pay for new features (#2 above) what DFS pieces could you live without? If you don't have a strong answer to any of these questions, but have feedback for the others, that is 100% fine...just share what you can. I cannot promise that your feedback will result in exactly what you want, but I can promise that it will be carefully considered as we look to 2017 and beyond... Many thanks, John (tipandpick) **I'm asking for direct messages only for #3 because I don't want to offend any of our hard-working contributors if they see their piece listed in a public forum. I appreciate your cooperation with this request.**
  5. My apologies...it was my fault. I noticed it late this afternoon & corrected the problem. Should be good to go now.
  6. I do projections for baseball, but it's not worth the effort for football because good projections are so readily available (especially here). That said, projections are predicated on the Vegas lines. There is not an additional adjustment for being a home favorite because that aspect is presumably already 'baked into' the line that Vegas releases. I'll let Dodds speak for himself on how much he sways from his model, but I've heard him say that he has subsequently tweaked a player's projections based on gut feeling about their individual matchup. My personal thinking is that we should let projections guide our thinking, but we need to subsequently use our own analyses to make tie-breaker decisions on players who are closely projected. For your subsequent question, I think the projectionists avoid this in NFL because historical influences are so dramatically variable. For example, Mike Evans is seeing ridiculous volume this year since VJax went on the IR; if you were to use this season as a guideline for his ceiling projections next year, you'd probably be quite a distance off due to the fact that the Bucs won't be rolling out Adam Humphries across from him every game in 2017. You can go through the entire league and come up with similar scenarios where player performance is affected by personnel around them, ultimately leading to the same conclusion: It's tough to establish a floor/ceiling value on a player based on past performances because of the litany of factors that account for those numbers (i.e., surrounding cast, coaching changes, strength of opponents, win/loss record, weather conditions, etc).
  7. eVALUEator is live (but not yet linked): http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=aleeeval16wk10 I've got an email into Dodds about the timeliness of posting, fellas. Unfortunately, only a few people (not me) have the authority to link articles to the DFS landing page, which can create delays at times. In many cases, the articles are able to be accessed via the appropriate URL, but haven't yet been tied to that page. If something is grossly late, please tweet at me (@tipandpick) because I get those notifications immediately, whereas I only pop in here from time to time.
  8. In every merger I can remember within the industry, "points" were always honored by the acquiring company. I would not be worried about losing them if you're hoping to accumulate them for a bigger dollar entry. [FWIW, I've got several million points and I'm not concerned about losing them]
  9. Is this only produced once during the week and never updated? Basically, yes...but if the line moves significantly, I will get in there and update it. Then as lines solidify throughout the week the chart could be updated with that information. Have you considered this option? I have considered it, but I try to avoid from editing the VVC for several reasons: 1) It's meant to serve as an early guide to help identify components of an offense to target/avoid, not to generate exact projections for players--we already have tools that do that, 2) updating the VVC in our CMS is not straightforward and is quite time-consuming, which eats into the 'free' time I have to do my other DFS content, and 3) between my 'real' job, my family, and my other DFS obligations, I truly have very little time to go back and update the piece when a line moves a half-point, etc. What time on Tuesday is your self-imposed deadline? I try to have it finished and uploaded into our CMS system by the end of the business day (~ 5 PM EST). After it gets uploaded, Clayton or Dodds have to link it to the landing page; sometimes they get to it right away and other times, it takes several hours. Yesterday, you noticed that it was 'live' with the link that Devin provided, but it had not been linked to the page yet. I have no control over how quickly it is linked it to the DFS landing page. FBG is also going to raise the price next year by 300 or 400% (I don't remember exactly) if i want both regular and DFS coverage... still not a lot of money in the grand scheme... but I would still like to see some things tightened up in general. The price for both DFS and season-long coverage next year is going up 28% (from $34.95 to $44.95). That works out to about a hair over $2 per week for both season-long and DFS coverage. It's JMO, but that is way too cheap for the level of DFS coverage we're providing (I've personally told Joe/David that they should charge more); other sites are charging far more money for less coverage (and getting it!). Add in the best season-long content on the planet (again, JMO) and the $44.95 price is the best bargain in all of fantasy football. As a point of comparison, here are some subscription prices for FBG competitors that provide DFS content (price comparisons are against 2017 FBG subscription prices): 4x4Football: $99/year for both season-long & DFS (120% more than FBG) FantasyLabs: $90/month for DFS only (700% more than FBG without season-long content) RotoQL: "On sale" for $29.95/month (166% more than FBG without season-long content) FantasyInsiders: $25 per month for DFS only (122% more than FBG without season-long content) FantasyAlarm: $24.99 per month (122% more than FBG) FantasyGuruElite: $19.95/month (78% more than FBG without season-long content) RotoGrinders: $50/month for DK & FD content (344% more than FBG without season-long content or other DFS sites)
  10. Apologies for the delay, guys. I make every effort to get it out on Tuesday each week & I think I've missed that (self-imposed) deadline twice in eight weeks. The delay generally comes from an inability to get a Vegas line on one or more games because they simply don't exist (i.e., the Jets/Browns was not released until earlier today). I'd rather wait an extra 12-18 hours to get an accurate line than to estimate one & get it grossly wrong. Likewise, it pays to wait that extra day to allow the lines to stabilize a bit before putting together the chart. It's a delicate balance because I want to get it out as early as possible, but the VVC becomes less useful if the information isn't accurate later in the week.
  11. Sorry, podunker...I generally pop in here everyday, but have been on vacation (still am), so I missed this. If it happens in the future, email Dodds or Clayton Gray and they'll look into it. Thanks!
  12. I am in complete agreement that the sites are going to eventually squeeze the grinder out of the industry with the rake increases. Rough example: Let's say that you're a mid-stakes grinder who plays (on average) $1K per day across multiple sports (NFL, NBA, MLB). At 10% rake (circa 2014), you would be paying ~ $35K per year to the sites; at the new 15% rake, you're now paying ~ $55K, a difference of $20K. For a person playing that kind of moderate volume, that $20K difference can represent what he profited last year (and won't profit this year). With information getting better (particularly for NFL), there isn't much of an edge to be had when the rake hits a certain threshold and I think we're nearing that range. The unfortunate part in all of this is that the sites are going to tell us that regulation is causing increased costs and that they have no recourse but to pass along those costs to us, the players. And the majority of casual players will not care because their $50 per Sunday during NFL season is not intended for long-term profit, but more of an entertainment budget. The grinder, however, is affected. The only way to get the attention of the sites is a boycott from *all* high-volume grinders to demonstrate that we won't continue to play the game with these ridiculous rake structures in place. Without that key player base, many of whom (including myself) are playing five-figures on a weekend, they will see that their business model is unsustainable without us. I'm afraid, however, that organizing such an effort would be a major hassle and I'm not 100% certain that *every* major DFS player would buy in.
  13. I appreciate the candor about your state of mind when you posted what you did. I truly wondered what I had done to draw that kind of negative attention... Regarding my stance on the sites and their rake increases, if you can find one single mention of me defending the rake increases in anything I've posted, recorded, or otherwise shared in social media, I'll PayPal you the $100 you referenced in your previous post. I have been a vocal opponent of rake increases, removal of referral bonuses, and reduction of rake-back (i.e., FPP's, etc) for some time now. Anybody who has asked me about these things, privately or publicly, has gotten my honest opinion. I, literally, was texting with a close friend earlier today about how the sites are pricing grinders out of the business; with the latest rake increases (15%), it has me second-guessing how long I want to stick around the industry. The two times (where I can remember) where I've been vocal about supporting the companies were: 1) When Ethan (Haskell) was accused of wrongdoing by the mass media prior to getting his fair shake. I think time has shown that he was not guilty of any wrongdoing, as two different investigations (one by DK and one independent) both concluded. 2) Recently, a person in this thread said that playing in the FBG Championship was dramatically less favorable to the players involved, in terms of odds and payouts. I also stand by my statements to that individual because that contest is structured with built-in overlay. In both of these cases, I would state that I was more in support of the facts than the companies themselves. In both instances, my opinion was based on what-I-perceived-to-be facts...although I will admit that some people may be less inclined to agree with me about #1.
  14. Not sure what I did to agitate you, but sure...Post the contest, send me the link via PM, and I'll join. For somebody who is apparently as successful as you are, I'm surprised you remember the exact details of when you have beaten little ole' me. We'll also ignore the fact that you know pretty much know who I'm playing in advance since I share it with the masses here and RG. For the record, that is a large reason why I have gotten away from H2H's...you can still find me in many different 50/50's across DK, FD, and Aces. Last year's final results from the FantasyPros "Expert" contest, where I finished 10th overall: https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/daily-fantasy-experts.php, but, yeah, I'm a mark.