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Dan Hindery

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About Dan Hindery

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    Cincinnati Bengals

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  1. Every situation is unique and I also think the number of games for the change in backup quality also matters. But in general, I do think a better backup will siphon off a few touches from the starter compared to a weak backup. In Cincinnati, we could see something like 20 touches per game for Mixon and 10 for Bernard. If Bernard had a minor injury and was going to miss a few games, I could see Mixon bumping up to 25 touches and only 5 touches per game for Trayveon Williams in place of Bernard. If Bernard was out for the season, then I don't think they would bump MIxon up to 25 long-term. Maybe 22-23 and they'd have to live with what Williams gives them on 7-8 touches per game.
  2. Great strategy. Those 2nds are going to be more valuable than normal, especially in superflex.
  3. In my experience, QBs do end up being very valuable in 16-team super flex. Big difference even compared to a 12 or 14 team superflex leagues because the supply and demand dynamic on the trade market is majorly impacted. There will end up being a few teams by next season who will be stuck with only one starter. And very few teams with 3. And some of those with 3, it might be like Drew Brees or somebody as one of them, so they won't want to move their #3 and hurt themselves long term. So yeah, I think you'd do well to snag one at the 4/5 turn if there is somebody decent and relatively young still available.
  4. He's been my go-to pick as my TE3 in the 18th round of best ball drafts. His ADP is TE37 right now on DRAFT, where around 32 or so are taken in the average 12-team league. I do think he'll finish quite a bit higher than TE37 but yeah, I think it comes down to time and place and knowing the relative value of TE in your league. I wouldn't take him in leagues where only 20 TEs are drafted or anything. TE targets should go down some but I don't think Oakland has much behind AB and Tyrell Williams. The other guys they added are late-round rookies or journeymen types. Admittedly, the same could be said of Waller. However, Gruden hasn't been raving about any of those other guys the way he has Waller. I wrote Waller's FBG profile this year and I'll re-post this part of it: "Since the time he's walked in here, he's been one of the most impressive guys on our team," Gruden said. "He learns fast. He is fast. He's extremely talented. I think he's going to be one of the best-kept secrets in the league." http://subscribers.footballguys.com/players/player-all-info.php?id=WallDa00&ref=s
  5. I like grabbing a high-floor veteran like Rivers or Roethlisberger and then coming back with Kyler Murray as a high-upside QB2. I 'd bet the house that Murray is going to move up from QB21 by August though...
  6. One of the two teams is taken. One more and we can do a quick dispersal and then the rookie draft.
  7. Looking for two replacement owners. You can see the two open teams here: http://www68.myfantasyleague.com/2019/options?L=18333&O=07 Open Team 1 has the 1.02 Open Team 2 has the 1.04 Rookie draft will start as soon as the two teams are filled. It is a shallow devy league, with 12 devys allowed to be taken in the rookie draft. So you have the choice of a devy or rookie when on the clock (until the 12th devy is taken). This league is $80 per year with 100% payouts (minus MFL). These two teams will need some work, so price for year 1 is reduced 75% all the way down to $20. Please respond here or DM me if you are interested or have any questions. The two teams are pretty even. We can either have 2 owners take them over directly or we can put together a dispersal draft. Up to the interested parties.
  8. Solid take. I can see it either way and kind of depends on the situation and how your league values QBs. I'd take Kyler Murray ahead of Lawrence. You've also got young guys like Goff who are talented and in ideal spots, so I don't think I'd rate him top 5 at this point but I could see top 10. Also, I'm a huge OSU fan and grad so Wilson's listing was just a non-updated cell in my spreadsheet from when I had the top prospects listed by state. Correction made on that. I like that you're so high on Justin Fields and hope you're right about how good he will be. I'm pretty excited for him but he looked kind of shaky in the spring game so I'm ranking him somewhat conservatively for now. I can't rank him top 5 ahead of somebody like Justyn Ross who showed so much as a true frosh.
  9. Let's talk through this a little bit because I don't think the Lawrence at #1 is crazy at all (though I don't think it's anywhere near a runaway #1). But positional value is tough and I can make the case either way. There are different sources on dynasty ADP, but here's what I have for the ADP of top RBs and QBs are currently going: 1. Saquon Barkley 2. Patrick Mahomes 3. Christian McCaffrey 4. Ezekiel Elliott 5. Alvin Kamara 11. Todd Gurley 12. Andrew Luck 13. Joe Mixon 14. Baker Mayfield 15. Melvin Gordon 16. Nick Chubb 17. Deshaun Watson 18. James Conner 19. Dalvin Cook 21. Le'Veon Bell 25. David Johnson In the top 25 overall right now, there are 12 RBs and only 4 QBs. So why does the #1 QB prospect (who is 2 years away) have to be ranked ahead of the #1 RB prospect (who is 1 year away)?
  10. Waller looks like a pretty interesting sleeper to me for 2019. In the post-draft press conferences, Gruden and Mayock both talked as if he was locked in as the starting Y-TE (receiving role) with rookie 4th rounder Foster Moreau slated for the inline, blocking role that was previously occupied by Lee Smith. Waller will be stepping into the same role that let Jared Cook finish as TE5 last year. Now, I don't think Waller will have the same sort of volume as Cook did because of the upgrades at WR but you can at least see the path to fantasy relevancy. Also thought Waller flashed a little bit late last season with plays like this: 44 yard catch
  11. Johnson is another guy who seems to go against the trend of what NFL teams are looking for. Guys who win with size ahead of speed, quickness, and separation don't seem to be in high demand. Was also interesting to see Lil'Jordan Humphrey go undrafted after having a more productive season than Johnson. The two difference's I'd point out with the freshman WRs and somebody like Shorter are: 1. It was generally considered to be an extremely strong WR class, the best in quite a few years. 2. Most of these freshman WRs ranked highly were early enrollees and proved themselves to some extent in the spring. Ladson and Ngata both put up over 100 receiving yards in the Clemson spring game and have been getting rave reviews. Same with Garrett Wilson at Ohio State, who has reportedly been making a ton of plays in practice and had a sweet touchdown in the spring game.
  12. In response to both of these posts...does Kelvin Harmon falling to the 6th round not give you a little bit of pause on somebody like Bryan Edwards? I know every prospect is different and these two aren't identical, but when I'm personally stacking my draft board I am trying to think in probabilities and look at patterns. To me, there's a decent chance that the NFL won't be as high on Edwards as the devy community is because he has some similarities to hyped devy guys that fell in the draft. On the other hand, I think the NFL is going to love somebody like Henry Ruggs and his 4.3 speed. That's part of why I'm higher on Ruggs than consensus (and have already taken him in a few early devy drafts), while I probably won't end up with any shares of Edwards. Not to say I don't like Edwards at all, I could definitely see him going Day 2 next year. I just like the risk/reward combination more with other prospects.
  13. Those two are really close for me and it probably comes down to team need and league specifics. I am part way through a 14-team Superflex draft that is mixed rookie/devys. Lawrence went #2 overall, behind Kyler Murray but ahead of Etienne and Jeudy. Lawrence looks like as close of a lock as possible to be the 1.01 as any player can be two years in advance. Jeudy looks like a near lock to be a top-10 pick next year.
  14. I haven't updated this list since the 2019 draft and, based on the way it played out, you are right about this. Will probably end up having him ahead of Higgins. Seeing where Marquise Brown, Hardman, Isabella, etc. went compared to Metcalf, Butler, Harmon. It is clear the NFL values speed much more than size right now, which will boost guys like Moore, Lamb, Reagor, Waddle, and Holloman.
  15. I thought I might have to defend having Taylor too low, wasn't expecting the opposite, lol. I have him ranked in a spot where I know I won't be landing him in any devy drafts, so we're mostly on the same page. He is tough for me because he looks like a 2-down back and I'm not sure how much NFL teams value guys like that these days. On the other hand, he is a heck of a runner so some team should find a way to use him.