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Dan Hindery

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  1. Completely disagree with this thought he wasn't good and did nothing in college and think it is lacking important context. You can't just look at the box score and assume he wasn't good. Jacobs came in as one of the lower-rated RB recruits Alabama has brought in but still carved out a big role as a true freshman in 2016 despite a loaded depth chart. 5-star sophomore Damien Harris and productive 4th-year, 22 year-old Bo Scarbrough, were the top two but Jacobs finished not too far behind them with 723 total yards. He was stuck behind the same two older guys in 2017 but still finished 3rd in yards and held off the #1 RB recruit in the nation (Najee Harris) on the depth chart. Then in 2018, he had slightly fewer yards than Harris again but led the team in touchdowns and was the go-to guy in big games and in key situations. The fact of the matter is that Alabama had at least three RBs last year that will be drafted in the first 3 rounds and they blew out almost every opponent they played. Damien Harris is going to be a top 5 RB in this class and Najee Harris should be a top 5 RB next draft. The 4th guy, Brian Robinson could play in the NFL as well. So, of course, they weren't going to give any of their top 3 a heavy workload and none of the three had any chance of putting up huge numbers given the situation and shared touches. This reminds me a bit of when a lot of people knocked Michael Thomas as a prospect because he didn't have a huge "market share" at Ohio State. But he was sharing the field with a half dozen other NFL-caliber skill position players (Ezekiel Elliott, Curtis Samuel, Braxton Miller, Jalin Marshall, Nick Vannett, Jeff Heuerman, etc.) and OSU made it a point to spread it around to try to keep everybody happy.
  2. PPR, Superflex Gave: Lamar Jackson, James Conner, Dante Pettis, 2.05 For: 1.01, Le'Veon Bell, Geronimo Allison, 2.01 Trying to pick up superflex shares of Kyler Murray wherever I can.
  3. Just mentioned him in the other thread as one of my two favorites in this class before seeing this topic. I've been more impressed with Jacobs than with Damien Harris. Jacobs seems a step quicker and has been a real mismatch in the passing game when Bama gets him matched up on linebackers. I wouldn't be surprised if Jacobs shines in the playoffs and emerges as a 1st/2nd round prospect in a similar way to what Sony Michel did last year. No sure thing he leaves early though. Bama seems to have a few guys every year who pass up the early rounds of the draft to come back for another year.
  4. It's going to be fascinating to see how things come together with this RB class. Pecking order at the top seems completely up in the air. The two guys who I am most intrigued with are Darrell Henderson and Josh Jacobs. Henderson has an uncanny ability to bounce off of tacklers and break long runs. Jacobs seems like the best pass-catching back and also has plenty of size as well. When we've seen guys come from the middle in the pack in their draft class to have huge fantasy value, it has often been guys who excel as receivers (Kamara, Le'Veon, David Johnson, etc.), so I think he's a guy you have to keep an eye on if he declares.
  5. I think there is some selective memory on how good Favre was late in his career. He had the one really good year at age 40 with the Vikings that kind of came out of nowhere. Other than that one season, after the age of 35 he threw 99 TDs and 103 INTs. Kurt Warner had a couple solid seasons late in his career, but he started over 10 games only 6x in his entire career. You can't put him in the same category in terms of longevity as guys like Roethlisberger who has started over 10 games 14x already and probably racks up quite a few more of those seasons. 15 years ago, most guys were seeing a big fall off soon after they hit 30. Donovan McNabb was washed up at 33. So was Drew Bledsoe. Jake Plummer retired at 32. Time will tell if my hypothesis ends up being correct, but I disagree that we're only going to be talking about HOF guys breaking the mold. For example: Matt Ryan is 33. Do you see him slowing down anytime soon? Alex Smith is 33, coming off of the best season of his career, and just signed a 4-year extension. Matthew Stafford is 30. So is Andy Dalton. Kirk Cousins turns 30 this month. I'm expecting these types of non-HOF guys to play into their late 30s as well. Is he showing any signs of decline at all? From a real-world application in dynasty strategy... 10 years ago if I owned a 33 y/o QB in dynasty I'd be lining up his replacement and in a major hurry to do so. I'd be worried that he would fall off a cliff at 33 or 34. That's not even remotely how I'm viewing guys at that age today. From the standpoint of putting together dynasty trade value, take somebody like Stafford who is entering his 10th season. I feel pretty good about his chances of playing 7+ more years, which is pretty much the max window I'm looking at for dynasty value. I'm valuing Stafford as a guy that has plenty of years left in dynasty.
  6. Where'd I say those QBs would be elite for 15+ years? That's a strawman argument. The discussion was about open QB jobs in the 2019 season and whether there would be starting opportunities out there for guys like Brissett and Bridgewater. I think all (or at least 10) of those young QBs listed will keep their teams out of the market for a starting QB next offseason. The point about the older QBs was again mostly about next offseason. I'm not expecting teams like SD, Pitt, etc. to be in the market for a starter even though their QBs are getting up there in years. These guys are hanging on to starting jobs longer and playing at a higher level than at any time in history. Don't know how that is disputable when looking at the numbers.
  7. I think you absolutely take training camp stuff into account. Especially when the reporting is universally positive and backed up by actions. With Miller, everyone who has seen him has raved. He also has already locked down a starting job and was deemed too important to risk playing in the first preseason game. It's logical to bump up guys like that over the guys in the same general tier who haven't been generating a ton of buzz (Christian Kirk as one example). I wouldn't bump Miller over Royce yet just due to the relative scarcity of RBs vs. WRs, though I think it's a reasonable question. And Sutton is getting almost as much positive press as Miller, so those two are a coin flip for me. I'd love either of those guys in the late 1st round if there are still rookie drafts going down. Miller and Sutton should be harder and more costly to trade for than they were a few weeks ago because we now have more information to go on.
  8. Yeah, it's looking like 3 straight good QB classes with Wentz, Dak, Goff, Watson, Trubisky, Mahomes and the 5 first rounders this year who should get their shot soon. Plus, and I mentioned this in my last article, the aging curve (or whatever you want to call it) is really changing at the position. Guys like Brees and Brady are showing you can still be elite at ~40 years old and all the 34-36 year old QBs (Roethlisberger, Rivers, Rodgers, etc.) are showing zero signs of slowing down and it's not crazy to think those guys might go until they are 39+ as well. When guys are locking down starting QB jobs for almost 20 straight years, there are naturally way fewer starting jobs open.
  9. You could get either of those guys extremely cheap. I'd guess a 3rd round for Bridgewater and a 4th for Brissett. I'm currently doing a Superflex startup and neither has been drafted through 16 rounds. Not expecting either to be drafted any time real soon either. I personally don't like the chances of either earning a starting job next year. Very few teams need a starting QB right now and you'll probably also have guys like Sam Bradford, Joe Flacco, Tyrod Taylor, and Nick Foles on the FA market.
  10. Not a ton of discussion on Fournette so far. There are at least 4 things I've been kicking around in my head while doing projections that are worth discussing: 1. How heavy will his workload be in carries? -Between the 13 regular season games he played and the 3 playoff games, he had 338 carries. The only guys who have had that sort of workload (20+ carries per game) in recent years are Le'Veon Bell and Ezekiel Elliott. Feels like Fournette belongs in that group, but can you really project him for 320 or 330 carries? 2. How involved will Fournette be as a pass catcher? -Fournette had 36 receptions in 13 games. Already a bigger number than most expected. There's talk he could see even more this year, which makes sense given how productive he was as a receiver (75% catch rate, etc.). 3. What do we make of the weight loss (down to 223)? -This has generally been a good thing for bigger backs, with Le'Veon Bell's improvement after slimming down between his first and second seasons as the most glaring example. Related to the pass catching, if Fournette is indeed quicker, does that lead to another reception per game over last year's pace? 4. How worrisome are the ankle injuries? -He's been plagued by this issue each of the last two seasons. He still put up big numbers last season. On the one hand, the injury history makes you a little bit hesitant to draft him due to the chance of recurrence (though the weight loss could help him). On the other hand, the injury problems last year point to Fournette having even more upside if he can be at 100% for a full 16 games. My personal lean is toward the belief that Jacksonville is old school and will have no qualms about giving Fournette 20+ carries every single game. If his pass game usage stays the same as last year, he'd catch 44 passes too. If the passing game usage ticks up even a little bit and Fournette catches 50+, he would have a monster fantasy season.
  11. Yeah, definitely a close trade. And an especially interesting one for me because just this week I had 1.08 in a startup draft (which I assumed would be Kamara) and tried to trade up to 1.04 for Barkley when the pick was on the clock. So I'd been weighing how big a gap between the two myself. I don't think it's a massive one. Barkley should end up getting 50-80 more carries most seasons but Kamara will likely outproduce Barkley as a pass catcher. Plus, we've already seen Kamara do it for a season.
  12. I guess 33 PPG is a theoretical ceiling, but odds of Barkley (or any modern player) getting there seem extremely long. Last season, LeVeon had 406 touches in 15 games. He caught 85 passes. He still averaged only 23 PPG in PPR. Unless you're projecting Barkley to score 30 TDs, he's not going to get to 33 PPG.
  13. I'm an unabashed optimist about all things Bengals, so take this with a major grain of salt...John Ross is generating a lot of buzz. The Bengals liked him enough to take him 9th overall and it sounds like he's basically meeting those type of lofty expectations so far at camp. He's finally healthy, has his confidence back, and even put on 5 or 10 pounds of muscle. Obviously still a lot of obstacles to making any real fantasy impact. AJ Green, Tyler Eifert, and the running backs are going to get a lot of targets. Tyler Boyd is going to get some in the slot. There might not be enough volume for Ross to be anything better than a fantasy WR5 or so. But he is still going off the board in best ball drafts in the WR7 or WR8 range, so he's a nice value right now. And very much worth keeping an eye on in the preseason because there's still a chance he ends up being a very good player.
  14. Fun trade. Looks really even but I'd personally lean slightly toward the Kamara/Penny side.
  15. I do have Penny on a ton of teams but haven't tried to go grab Carson in any leagues. If it was a league where I felt like I was shallow at RB and counting on Penny to be in my starting lineup every week, I think a future 2nd round pick would be a fair price and cover my bases a little. For now, just sitting tight and seeing how things develop. I'm in a 12-team Superflex startup right now and curious to see where Carson goes. Penny went 5.03 and Carson hasn't been selected yet (mid-11th). In terms of the Carson hype, I'm not buying into anyone saying this is going to be his backfield and Penny won't have much involvement. Is it possible that Carson is good enough to muddy the picture and make it more of an RBBC this year? That I could see. The nice thing about Penny though is that I think he is going to be a good enough receiver that even if he does split carries with Carson, he is going to catch enough passes to be an RB2 in PPR. They've been lining up Penny in the slot and throwing to him a bunch. Especially with Baldwin banged up, there just aren't many good pass-catching options in Seattle and I'm still convinced the projections of Penny catching only 30 passes are way low.