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pecorino

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About pecorino

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  1. Not a cure, no, but wearing masks and frequent hand washing would absolutely have a massive effect. Seems like a small price to pay to reduce deaths by chunks of percentages (different experts cite different percents, but I often hear over 50% which equates to hundreds of thousands of saved Americans.)
  2. Because the people talking about it are the folks at the top who are getting the money and control the trickle.
  3. Joe has done a good job of making this his forum and I have been here long enough to know that he wouldn’t want me to share my unvarnished opinions on this board. It is not that the folks you described are not here, it’s that we know when to hold our tongue.
  4. What alternative treatments? Nothing is FDA approved. It’s all experimental at this point and Regeneron is no fly by night operation.
  5. On Regeneron, it is a risk/reward decision and they have data showing that it is very low risk. He’s also tight with the CEO. I wouldn’t read too much into Trump getting that treatment. It makes a lot of sense.
  6. P-values rule the world of research. They probably shouldn’t but they do.
  7. Because of the variation of tests, and because we don’t know if they have existing information on things like standard deviations of populations etc., I wouldn’t say one way or another whether those tables are correct. However it has been noted that, with such a small sample size, even a change of one or two deaths can have a big affect on the P value. That’s why these researchers would like to have larger samples.
  8. A p-value at or below 1% (0.01) will definitely be seen as significant. The question may come if it falls between 1% and 5%. Non-life-threatening treatments can get away with the 5% threshold and their drug has a track record of safety so 0.05 or less should be sufficient. It wouldn’t shock me, though, if the FDA or other powers are more conservative and want to see the 1% threshold. Look at me, I teach Statistics and I also own CYDY!
  9. Her breathy affect when singing is incredibly annoying. I’m not convinced that she is a good singer at all. More schtick and angst than anything else, at least 20 years ago. Lately she’s looked good and I haven’t heard any new music from her which is a godsend.
  10. My wife was at 7/23/99 (while I worked...) and they definitely announced Big Cypress at this show. She remembers it vividly. This second set is quite good.
  11. CNBC yesterday evening with all four or five gentlemen heavily pimping Medtronic. Rarely have I seen them so unanimously effusive. Trading around $102. Pays a 2% dividend. Lots of free cash flow. A bit rich at P/E of 31 but what isn’t? With such a low beta (0.69), I am thinking about a long term call. The January 2022, $80 strike call is selling for $26.40. That’s a break even of $106.40. Very reasonably priced calls, albeit the dividend hurts. Just wanted to put this trade out there. Good luck to all.
  12. This thread has it all. Sure, there’s a lot of chatter about quick trades. Most of those, to me at least, are entertaining and rarely acted upon (though someone here convinced me to flip NCLH when it inevitably bounces from 15 to 16, thanks FBG!) To me, the trades are the gravy. The meat and potatoes are the posts from professionals (self-professed, of course) on investing. There’s no shortage of those and I encourage us all to balance our speculation and “play money” with our core investments. Here is but one example from a couple weeks ago. A FBG noted reasonably priced long term calls on AAPL. September 2022, strike price of $100, premium around $27 or so. In other words, for about a quarter of the share price, you could own an option contract for 100 shares for two years with breakeven of $127 per share. That’s less than a 20% AAPL share price increase needed in two years to break even. Free money, says I, who wanted to buy 100 shares outright. Hit the call instead at $25 on the pullback last week and will hold for a couple years. Leverage, investing in a strong name, again thanks FBG.
  13. I was confident in 2016 that Hillary would win. I also recall (as Ivan mentioned above) a pipe dream wish that electors might go against their states’ popular votes if they felt compelled to do so. This time around I’m not making any predictions and I don’t feel confident. In fact I feel demoralized and sad. I haven’t been in this forum for a while and think it’s best if I go back to the FFA.
  14. I think the content of the debate is nigh immaterial since we can be fairly certain that the incumbent will fabricate “facts” out of whole cloth. Most important to me is whether the moderators or Biden will allow him to make uncontested claim after uncontested claim, and how the push-pull goes if it happens at all.