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  1. The Patriots 2020 schedule includes @ Seattle, @ LA Rams, @ Kansas City, @ LA Chargers, and @ AFC South Champion. That seems like a rough road schedule. They'll also have a home game against San Francisco. It's not the Patriots fault that Buffalo, Miami, and the NY Jets have been dysfunctional organizations.
  2. At this point, who else can the Patriots spend that $15 million on? There may be an opportunity during the season to make a trade and take on some salary. But, truly great players rarely come available mid-season. The Patriots maintain some salary cap flexibility so that they can seize opportunities when they arise. A great player became available and the Patriots seized the moment.
  3. I predict the Patriots will use their first round pick and trade the other 13 picks to get 16 picks back (not all in 2020).
  4. The Patriots trading Drew Bledsoe to the Bills seems like a close comparison. The Patriots got a single 2003 first round draft pick for him. Bledsoe was 30 when traded. Wilson is also 30.
  5. Gostkowski is coming back.
  6. There's no next man up to replace Gronk. The Patriots have serious problems to solve in their passing game. Football is a brutal business. Malcolm Mitchell also retired recently due to injuries. He was the Patriots 4th round draft pick (#112) in 2016.
  7. That cap space money should be going to Gostkowski. I'm among Patriots fans who have been frustrated by his big game missed kicks. But, he's still the best option at Kicker by a wide margin.
  8. I assume Flowers and Brown leaving is a guaranteed two 3rd round compensatory picks?
  9. Today is Aaron Rodgers' 35th birthday.
  10. Maybe there's nobody in this draft who Belichick thinks is very likely to be an NFL starting QB.
  11. Wow, I guess you have a point. Although, I can't think of any NFL head coach that has done this!Except for that the conversion rate is under 50%. Meaning you are more likely to miss BOTH, then to make one of the 2 chances.This type of misunderstanding of math is partly to blame for a lot of non-optimal NFL coaching decisions. If we assume the chance of converting a two point conversion is 47.2% (from the 538 article), then: On the first attempt: You convert 47.2% of the time (and then kick the XP on a second TD). You fail to convert 52.8% of the time (and are forced to try a second attempt) On the second attempt: You convert 24.9% of the time (.472 * .528). You fail to convert 27.9% (.528 * .528) of the time. So, you complete at least one two point conversion attempt 72.1% of the time. The end result is: 47.2% of the time, you a make the first two point conversion and can win the game with a second TD and kicked XP. 24.9% of the time, you make the second two point conversion and send the game into overtime. 27.9% of the time, you miss both two point conversions and are down two points after scoring the second TD.
  12. It has to be Pittsburgh simply to get the home game. Besides, Pittsburgh's secondary is weak. Brady should shred it easily.
  13. Gronkowski is signed through 2019.
  14. I wouldn't give too much credit to the other AFC teams simply because they've made big free agent acquisitions. When the Dolphins sign Ndamukong Suh, the obvious impression is that they've substantially upgraded their team. However if you believe the price tag of ~$19 million per year is excessive, then the Dolphins have actually hurt their team by the signing. That $19M/year could have been used more effectively on multiple players. Likewise, the Jets signing of Derrelle Revis and the Bills extension of LeSean McCoy hurt their teams if they've overpaid. The fact that the Jets "had lots of cap room" simply means they've mismanaged their roster heading into this offseason. Making a bad signing only compounds the mistake. Right now, it's hard to see where the Dolphins, Jets, and Bills will pay the price for excessive spending on the free agent market. However, the salary cap ensures they'll get charged elsewhere on their roster.
  15. I made a post about this at the 2+2 Poker Legislation subforum.