It's a problem. We shouldn't be ignoring it, or exacerbating it. We should be doing our best to collect relevant data. That's not happening. I would not choose to draw such definitive conclusions based on what we know.
LInk to the Johns-Hopkins data. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
There's only one graph that I look at each day on that linked page. It's the Daily Deaths. In my mind it's the only objective data we have to go on. When you hear about "increases" in cases that's relative to the number being tested. Most news outlets aren't sharing that number **. If we were talking about a percent of randomly selected people being tested we might have some data worth discussion, but for now we're dealing with several forms of statistical bias. Who is volunteering to be tested? And what motivation exists for them that may not have a couple of months ago? Again, bias data. However, the death count isn't so subjective. You can make arguments about who is or isn't being counted as an official Covid death, but unless you subscribe to a nationwide conspiracy among doctors it's the best we have.
The deaths are steadily dropping. Will we see an increase in death count in a week? If so, it would seem there was a legitimate increase in the number of true cases (whether tested or not). We'll see. This is the discussion I would be having each day if I were the president. I think the president has tried to take the conversation in this direction, but he's done a poor job if it. Disclosure: I'm generally a fairly liberal guy.
Note: The sinusoidal nature of that deaths graph is due to some states not reporting deaths over the weekends. They get lumped into Tuesday and Wednesday each week causing what looks like a dampened sine curve. It's best to click on the button for the 7-day average so you're comparing each day to the one 7 days previous.
** Another problem. In comparing the percentage of cases to the death counts I've noticed some really screwy data. I live in Washington state. My buddy an I were comparing our counties.
Spokane (him) 1,167 cases 39 deaths 533 active cases 21,868 total tests (5.3% positive tests)
Whatcom (me) 588 cases 40 deaths 548 active cases 16,563 total tests (3.5% positive tests)
Spokane is showing about a 3% death rate in their cases.
Whatcom is showing about a 7% death rate in their cases.
Again, the data we're collecting is inconsistent. It should be systematically collected and normed for things like age and population density, but it's not. Making broad sweeping decisions based on poor data and paranoia is folly.
Am I trying to make this into an AP Statistics problem? Well, yeah. Isn't that the intelligent educated thing to do? Why would anyone argue against that? Isn't the alternative making emotional charged guesses? How is that better?