I generally agree with what you're saying as a whole, but regarding the bolded what if Daniel Jeremiah and Matt Miller end up being right and we find out the NFL is a lot higher on Jacobs than we originally thought?
While unlikely, it's a plausible scenario that Jacobs tests well at the combine and the narrative of him being a top 10 pick starts to pick up more and more steam (it's already appearing in more mock drafts than just DJ/Miller now). So if Jacobs goes in the top 10 to the Bucs and the next RB doesn't come off the board until pick 60+, is that really a situation over talent type scenario? Even at their current values with Jacobs in the late 1st that's still an entire round ahead of the next RB in most mocks so certainly a pretty big perceived talent disparity there already.
Again I agree that this is not likely and the odds are higher that the gap between 1.1 vs. 1.3 ends up being less than a 2020 1st, but just throwing it out there that there is still more that can end up separating the two than purely situation.
Also regarding the question about landing spots for WRs, I think if Indy or Cleveland commit to a 1st round WR those are the landing spots that people would really fall in love with (again, particularly if they're investing a 1st round pick in them).