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About FreeBaGeL

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  1. CEH also has those thunder-thigs where guys just bounce off his lower body, allowing him to break tackles without losing momentum and turn in long runs despite not having elite speed. I've said on this forum many times that is the #1 trait I look for in a RB and ironically the last guy I went to bat this hard for over it was Kareem Hunt.
  2. FF is about percentages and odds though. The odds are overwhelmingly in favor of Tennessee's pass attempts increasing. When a team finishes bottom 3 in the league in pass attempts their pass attempts increase by an average of 90 attempts the following season. 93% of teams that finish in the bottom 3 in the league in pass attempts over the last decade had more attempts the following year. So yes, it's possible that TEN passes less. But it is very very likely that they pass more. ETA: I would be surprised if there were a single team in the last 20 years that finished dead last in pass attempts one year and then threw for fewer pass attempts the following year, but I haven't looked at that specifically yet.
  3. Cooper: 119 targets, 79-1189-8 Golladay: 114 targets, 65-1190-11 Kittle: 120 targets, 85-1053-5 Gallup: 113 targets, 66-1107-6 Evans: 118 targets, 67-1157-8 Waller: 117 targets, 90-1145-3 Chark: 118 targets, 73-1008-8 This is not nearly as rare as you are making it out to be. That is all just from this year, with target counts that AJB would hit by getting an additional 1 target per game from Tannehill on a team that by the laws of probability will almost certainly pass more this year than last year, possibly by a significant amount. As a 2nd year receiver, any of those lines would increase AJB's value. Note that Tyler Lockett is not on this list. That's because he received too many targets to qualify, despite entering 2019 with a career high of 90 targets on a team that people were even more sure would finish dead last in pass attempts in 2019 than people are about Tennessee in 2020.
  4. Tennessee knows who they want to be. They don't know who they will be. Jacksonville went into last season with the exact same notion of who they wanted to be. In the end despite having a rookie 6th round QB that they clearly wanted to limit what they put on his shoulders they still ended up 12th in the NFL in pass attempts. If the Tennessee defense regresses then they can't just run run run all day if they keep getting behind. If Henry gets hurt they won't be able to do it. If the O-line regresses they won't be able to do it. There are plenty of scenarios where their pass attempts go up significantly. And Brown is not as far off of the necessary volume to be a top 10 WR as you are implying. Last year's #2 scoring fantasy WR had 119 targets. Two other top 10 WRs were also under 120 targets. 120 targets is 7.5 targets per game. AJB averaged 6.25 targets per game with Ryan Tannehill last season. So he needs roughly 1 additional target per game to get the same volume that 3 of the top 10 fantasy WRs, including the #2 overall WR. Again, if Tennessee doesn't run as well, or Henry gets hurt, or the defense doesn't play as well, an extra target per game is really not much. And that's assuming that the defense doesn't just completely tank in Tennessee like it did in Jacksonville and bump them all the way up near the top 10 in passing attempts. Again, I am in my shares of AJB for the long haul so I am not conerned if he doesn't have a great year next year, but I think it is far from a foregone conclusion that his value is going to depreciate.
  5. HC Wainright reiterates NERV with Buy, price target: $20 So you're saying there's a chance...
  6. Unless you think it's going to go lower. But yes given the risk/reward and the circumstances I would sell and take the profit in your case.
  7. Hah good catch Noonan. Looks like he might have bought the puts by mistake. A happy mistake indeed.
  8. Several of us bought shares to sell covered calls against. I have 200 shares @ $13.2 but the premium I collected against them on the calls makes their cost basis more like $8-$9.
  9. What did you sell the puts at? Assuming it was around $1.20 that would mean you're in for a credit of 1.2 x 100 x 5 = $600. So someone paid you $600 for those puts and you have that money in your account. If you want to get out of the position you'd need to buy them back which would cost 2.5 * 100 * 5 = $1250. So your total net on the trade would be $600 - $1250 = $650 loss. Alternatively if you hold them, and the price goes up above $5 on June 19, the puts expire worthless and you keep the $600 as your profit. If you hold and the price doesn't go above $5, you now own 500 shares at a cost of $5 each ($2500 total) and you have your $600 premium still. From there you can either hold the shares and hope they go back up eventually or sell them at a loss.
  10. Just as an aside to all of this, I saw mentioned that Indy is basically as good a situation as KC which I strongly disagree with. For starters, Reich has seemed to prefer to have a pass catching back while Reid has preferred to have a clear lead back that gets receptions, rushes, and goaline carries. Marlon Mack was a decent receiver in college but Reich can't get him off the field in favor of a specialist fast enough in passing situations. Also the ONLY thing that currently makes Indy a good situation is that they have a very strong O-line. But O-line strength is VERY volatile year to year. Just look at the Rams who had the highest graded O-line in NFL history in 2018, then were garbage in 2019. A year before that the Cowboys had this young dominant line that was poised to go down as one of the all-time greats in NFL history with everyone young and under contract and now they are decidedly average. O-lines are like fantasy defenses. Somewhat consistent in season. Wildly volatile year to year. KC is a good spot because of the system and Indy is a good spot because of the O-line. I have FAAAAAAR more confidence in KC/Mahomes remaining an elite system going forward than I have in Indy remaining an elite O-line. Again, I've been high on CEH all along and think his talent is far underrated by many but I just wanted to take this quick aside and not let it slip past like we can assume the situations are similarly good. 2 years from now the situation in KC will likely still be one of the best in the NFL while in Indy I wouldn't be at all surprised if it was considered in the bottom 10 while they search for a QB with a coach that prefers a pass catching specialist and a line that inevitably regresses mightily.
  11. Sucks to see it drop by $10 for the first halt down and now every time we go up 30 to 50 cents we got volatility halted up.
  12. So by my calculations I will be an owner of 800 shares of NERV at a cost basis of $7.98 after June 19 hits, with about $2000 collected in premium. Not quite as horrible as I'd first thought.
  13. Changing my yacht name (after CYDY hits 100) to "Lebronlimeade > Rollupurdome"
  14. I got all excited this morning because someone bought a ####-ton of NERV calls yesterday right before close, then it came out the results were dropping this morning and lots of people were hammering that buy as clearly insider trading (given the circumstances of the call purchases and the early release of results it seemed to point to the results being good). So I had about 5 min there thinking we were all going to be rolling in dough.