What do you all think Lamar Gordon is capable of posting in miami now that he is the #1 RB? While any #1 RB is compelling to pick up as a free agent, the whole situation down there seems like such a mess that i have a hard time beleiving he will make much of a difference.My view is Julius Jones-type performance, 800 yrds, 5 TD's...What do you think???
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Calling All Sharks - What will Gordon's Stats be? (1 Viewer)
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TheFanatic
Footballguy
Well, he can catch the ball out of the backfield so I think he will wind up with a couple hundred yards receiving on the year and close to 1K rushing and 5-6 TD's. I would say, 1200 total yards and 6 TD's.
Aabye
Footballguy
That's about what Eddie George ended up with last year. 1,200 and 6 doesn't seem like an overly optimistic projection if you assume that Gordon takes on a feature role. I'm projecting him at around 1,100 total yards (900 rushing / 200 receiving) and 5 scores with pretty decent upside, assuming that he holds onto the job.no way he gets 1k rushing,
Captain Quinoa
Footballguy
500 rush200 rec3 TDs
Frank Black
Footballguy
Gordon seems injury prone to me. Couple that with a weak OL and I think he'll miss some games. On a PPG basis, I think he can perform right around #20.
Primetime Players
Footballguy
You’re crazy. He’s next to worthless. He’s no Ricky Williams. Miami blows and he will blow because he is a marginal player on a crappy team. He blew in St. Louis and they have a good offense. He was supposed to be the next Faulk. Um, didn’t happen and St. Louis drafted Jackson because he blows and will never be able to fill Faulk’s shoes. He’s only worth picking up if you need a 4th or 5th rb to fill in for a bye week…at best. The only value he has is that he’s a starter and will get more opportunities than a backup would. Big deal. I predict that he will have about a 700-yard season with 4-6 tds. Maybe average 3-5 catches for a total of 20-25 yards a game. Barely worth even looking at. If you’re counting on this guy for anything other than that, you’re in deep trouble. Kiss your season goodbye.
Muntucky Maverick
Footballguy
Tell us how you really feel.
Seriously, how often does a starting rb appear on your waiver wires? I play in 2 dynasty leagues and several other redrafts and I have picked him up in most of those leagues. You never know what someone might give you for a starting rb.Muntucky Maverick
Footballguy
Sounds like someone missed out on the waiver wire today and is taking out his aggressions on this board
TheFanatic
Footballguy
First, I'm in a Dynasty League with a Salary Cap. I can't add and drop players as my mood dictates as many on this board seem capable of doing. Second, you mock my prediction yet you predict 700 yards on the ground and 20-25 yards per game in the air. 25 yards per game is 400 yards overf 16 games. Add that to the 700 yards rushing and you have 1100 total yards and 4-5 TD's. I said, 1200 total yards and 6 TD's. So you basically blast my prediction apart and then come in 100 yards and 1 TD less over the course of a year, or in standard scoring leagues, 16 points less for the season, or 1 point a week. WOW. Way to go out on a limb with your prediction while blasting mine. My prediction puts him about top 20. Yours is 1 point a week behind mine. Either get your logic straight or learn how to use a calculator.
superbowlchampion
Footballguy
My comments from another thread: lets start with a few negatives:
Gordon just had ankle surgery a few weeks ago (he is reported to be running well and pain free).
Gordon was solid as Marshall's backup in 2002, but less impresive in 2003. STL decided to draft Jackson this year instead or relying on Gordon.
Gordon's rushing average in STL was 3.9, a drop from Marshall's 4.2 over the last 2 years.
Gordon is new to Miami and will probably be worked into the system.
Ricky Williams struggled behind the MIA line last year. His numbers:
392 for 1372 (3.5 average) 50 rec for 351 10 TDs total
The good news is Gordon will probably be the main RB in MIA. (Minor is a 3rd down RB and Morris is nothing special).
Gordon is a solid receiving back, putting up 30 for 278 yards 2 TDs in 2002.
My initial guess for Gordon: 280 carries, 3.5 YPC = 980 rushing.
40 receptions, 7.5 ypr = 300 yards. maybe 7 to 8 Total TDs.
This would make Gordon a 20 to 25 RB.
Gordon just had ankle surgery a few weeks ago (he is reported to be running well and pain free).
Gordon was solid as Marshall's backup in 2002, but less impresive in 2003. STL decided to draft Jackson this year instead or relying on Gordon.
Gordon's rushing average in STL was 3.9, a drop from Marshall's 4.2 over the last 2 years.
Gordon is new to Miami and will probably be worked into the system.
Ricky Williams struggled behind the MIA line last year. His numbers:
392 for 1372 (3.5 average) 50 rec for 351 10 TDs total
The good news is Gordon will probably be the main RB in MIA. (Minor is a 3rd down RB and Morris is nothing special).
Gordon is a solid receiving back, putting up 30 for 278 yards 2 TDs in 2002.
My initial guess for Gordon: 280 carries, 3.5 YPC = 980 rushing.
40 receptions, 7.5 ypr = 300 yards. maybe 7 to 8 Total TDs.
This would make Gordon a 20 to 25 RB.
Synthesizer
Footballguy
Well most sharks are picking him up off the waiver wire this morning so I doubt that too many guys are counting on him to save their season. And no matter how bad a player is or how bad you may think his team will be, any starting RB getting 20 touches a game is worth a look.
Deadzone21
Footballguy
TheFanatic
Footballguy
Exactly. Even if this guy blows, as long as he gets 20 carries a game he will still put up close to 1K yards. 20 touches * 3.0 YPC(just to show you the low end) * 16 games = 960 yards. He's got more speed, skill and pass catching ability than any of the other guys so as long as he's healthy, he'll be given the bulk of the carries and thus will be a decent RB3 and possibly an RB2 by the end of the season once he's more familar with the Offensive Scheme
mchaps55
Footballguy
Dolphins fan here:~Gordon will be an upgrade over Minor and Morris, however Miami offensive line is really towards the bottom of the league. Lot of ? marks on the line and the offense in general. Plus the fact they have a new new OC. He isnt going to play week 1 and expect him to miss about 2 games with a nagging injury. I expect about 190 carries for 720 yrds 5 TD and 200 yrds receiving 1 TD.IF he stays healthy he may get close to 850-900 yrds rushing. Also you have to take into consideration even though he will be the full time back asap, they are not going to forget about minor and morris. They will get some carries
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
I would like to see ONE reasonable response to this question - are you saying there is "no way" a back who gets the ball 350 times will get 1G? He could do that with less than 3 YPC - and Wannie has shown he has no problem giving his starting back 380 carries.Care to re-think a "no way" prediction with anything LOGICAL or OBJECTIVE?no way he gets 1k rushing,
B Maverick
Footballguy
I am not as optimistic as most on Gordon. I see yet another guy coming out of the STL backup position to be a teams savior.Trung CandidateAz HakimStl was an offensive juggernaught and had some of the top talent (Holt, Bruce, Faulk) in its starting positions. When they went 3 wide or had to plug in a backup like Trung or Gordon, they looked good because of the offense and the fact that teams still had to key on Holt, Bruce, etc.Miami has a solid WR pair in Chambers and Booker, but never will they be confused with Holt and Bruce. Heck, Fiedler and Feeley are barely better then a knocked sensless warner! And the oline? well....The Dolphins would have been better trading for Thomas, someone who can play with no weapons around him and has put up 1000 in 2 of 3 seasons instead of yet another player inflated by the greatest show on turf. Just because Gordon is faster, doesnt mean he is a better fit. Miami is rapidly challenging SD as the worst team in the league.600 yards rush, 200 rec5 TDs.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
LOL!!I'll agree with Bristol here (did I actually just type that?)Sounds like someone missed out on the waiver wire today and is taking out his aggressions on this board
Colin Dowling
Footballguy
We just had our waiver run today. We go in 5$ increments back and forth. Gordon went for 60$. I decided against spending 65. THe guy who got him is in another division, so me not getting Gordon isn't the end of the world. Instead, I picked up my man Bob Ferguson for 5$.I think Gordon will be good for about 1200 total yards (about 900 on the ground) and 5 or 6 TDs......but secretly I'll be hoping he fails. 
COlin
COlin
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
While I agree with that, esp. re: blitz pick up assignments and receiving plays - I do not believe it'll be later than week 3 before he is both the starter and getting 18-22 carries per game.Other backs WILL certainly be used, esp. on passing plays, but I think Gordon will be the primary, and greatly used, ball-carrier by week 3.
Wingnut
Footballguy
Too funny.Thanks to this message board, I could have picked him up last night before anyone in my league knew about the trade to stash behind Edge, Barlow, CuMar and JJones, but no way would he ever start above those guys, and no way would I drop any of my other players for him, so I figured Id leave him for some poor sap in my league.The 1st transaction request for Gordon came in today at 1:30PM EST, and since then 4 other teams have put in a request for him.Just another example of how these forums kick major ####.BTW, I see Minor/Morris/Gordon splitting carries, making none of them starting material in anything but 14+ team leagues.I agree with Warhogs quote "I am not sold on him. I think it will take several weeks to be up to speed with the playbook so I see a lot of RBBC in the first 4 weeks of the season at minimum. My prediction is 550 rush yards - 200 rec yards - 3TD.".
FantasyDog
Footballguy
I don't think that Gordon will be getting 350 carries this year--it would surprise me a little bit if he gets 250, frankly. Even established backs are called into question when they're picking up 3.5 yards a carry, and Gordon is not established in Miami by any means.It looks to me like Minor will still be getting 100+ rushes (he's a 3rd-round pick like Gordon, and he's established), and you've got a couple of other backs hanging around. Plus, the Dolphins should have about 50 fewer rushing attempts than last year, because they suck now.If he doesn't get benched, I'd project Gordon to have 800 rushing yards, maybe another 30 receptions for 200-250 yards receiving, and 4-6 touchdowns--25th to 30th overall, if he lasts through the season. That would make him a player who's certainly worth having, but not someone I'd be looking to start except in an emergency.
Wilbur Wood
Footballguy
I can't help but feel a lot of the negative posts about Gordon are by those who are completely missing the point. The point is that as of now, Gordon is expected to start in a week or two. That's just one more of the rare starting RBs that is on your roster and not on your competition's.I picked him up in all three of my $$ leagues. In none of them is he more than a RB4 right now. And in picking him up, I dropped Bettis, John Lynch, and the Jax D. Big loss.If he even managed to acheive some of the lower projections of 900 total yards and 6 TDs, I'll take it. Better than the junk I dropped. Makes a good bye week or injury filler.BUT...there is definate upside here. If he in fact excels, then you've got a top 15 - 20 RB. FROM THE WAIVER WIRE. I don't think anyone expected D Davis to do so well last year either. There were also a lot of negative threads after Boldin's fist game too. You never know. And if you're quick on the trigger, what's the harm?Fact is, the naysayers have good points. But I've never seen a team win the goods that wasn't agressive on the waiver wire.
Primetime Players
Footballguy
crazy talk. Crazy.I'm very optimistic about Gordon in Miami. Gordon is has power and quickness and decent hands. I say he surprises alot of people (I picked him up already) I say 1,200 yards rushing 8 TD's 250 yards receiving 1 TD. So 1450 total yards and 9 TD's
Primetime Players
Footballguy
Nah. He's been picked up by people in my leagues but I could have gotten him if I wanted. I just don't think I need him. As I said, he'd be a 4th or 5th guy on any of my teams. Seriously, if you guys think this guy will be a savior for your team or get quality points for you on a consistent basis, you find a new hobby.Sounds like someone missed out on the waiver wire today and is taking out his aggressions on this board
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
Primetime Players
Footballguy
Top 20? What? I think you’re being generous. You build him up too much. They guy was the #3 on St. Louis. He had his chance when Faulk was hurt and he blew it! Now he joins a team that has a different offense and style of ball control and you think he can waltz in there and become a quality fantasy starter? Come….ON! I thought I was being generous with the numbers I quoted.
This thread is interesting, but I think its missing the larger question about the Gordon deal... what will the other owners in my league think he's worth???Thanks to the update emails and my trusty Blackberry, I jumped on this asap and picked him up. I don't NEED Gordon as I have Priest, C. Brown, Bennett/Onterrio, E. Smith as my RBs so far. However, other owners in my league are hurting (like the guy who drafted Travis Minor in the 5th). I picked up Gordon with one objective in mind - to use him as a bargaining chip in a trade. Have no plans to ever start him (but you never know in FF). If no one bites, I'll watch to see if he develops. All I gave up was the player at the bottom of my roster. EVERY player has value and if you picked up Gordon off the wire today, he has a lot of value there. Who cares if you ever start him??
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
Stick yourself out like this, and you may find whatever "shark" reputation you have destroyed if Gordon has two or three good games in a row.It is all fine and dandy to have an opinion, especially if you have something to back it up, but to have a completely unsupported opinion, and to then take such an aggresive stand like you have done above, well, it simply reeks of a short-sighted FF player.
Primetime Players
Footballguy
I'm not saying "no way". I'm saying I drafted well and don't need him. Injuries do happen, but I think I have enough depth to overcome injuries. My point is that why would I waste a spot on someone I would only have to start maybe one week? Trade him for a need somewhere else? Possible, but he just doesn't seem worth it if you already have depth at rb.I would like to see ONE reasonable response to this question - are you saying there is "no way" a back who gets the ball 350 times will get 1G? He could do that with less than 3 YPC - and Wannie has shown he has no problem giving his starting back 380 carries.Care to re-think a "no way" prediction with anything LOGICAL or OBJECTIVE?no way he gets 1k rushing,
Primetime Players
Footballguy
Finally! Good post and probably very accurate.
I just picked him up in my dynasty league. I currently have Priest, Ahman and Portis as starters with DeShawn Foster and UGH!!!!!!!!!!Ricky Williams on my bench. I had intended to roll the dice with Ricky but as another wise shark said "How often does a starting RB appear on the waiver wire". I pulled the trigger and have cast Ricky to the fantasy graveyard. I hope he stays there.
Primetime Players
Footballguy
Bristol has a tendency to overvalue RBs. He loads up on RBs during the draft and neglects other positions because he thinks he can trade his marginal RBs for quality. He’s the craziest person on this board.LOL!!I'll agree with Bristol here (did I actually just type that?)Sounds like someone missed out on the waiver wire today and is taking out his aggressions on this board
superbowlchampion
Footballguy
FFT projections:
Lamar Gordon MIA 133 for 693 5 TD plus 13 rec 102 0 TD
That seems low, especially on the receiving numbers. They have Gordon behind Foster, Duckett and Emmitt. I would move him ahead of those guys. Foster and Duckett might be good backs but they need injuries to move up.
Lamar Gordon MIA 133 for 693 5 TD plus 13 rec 102 0 TD
That seems low, especially on the receiving numbers. They have Gordon behind Foster, Duckett and Emmitt. I would move him ahead of those guys. Foster and Duckett might be good backs but they need injuries to move up.
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
When your RB5 is a player unlikely to see th efield, why NOT rather than why ADD.I just dropped the potential of Tatum Bell as my RB5 for Gordon b/c I KNOW Gordon will be used.I'm not saying "no way". I'm saying I drafted well and don't need him. Injuries do happen, but I think I have enough depth to overcome injuries. My point is that why would I waste a spot on someone I would only have to start maybe one week? Trade him for a need somewhere else? Possible, but he just doesn't seem worth it if you already have depth at rb.I would like to see ONE reasonable response to this question - are you saying there is "no way" a back who gets the ball 350 times will get 1G? He could do that with less than 3 YPC - and Wannie has shown he has no problem giving his starting back 380 carries.Care to re-think a "no way" prediction with anything LOGICAL or OBJECTIVE?no way he gets 1k rushing,
Primetime Players
Footballguy
Sounds like you need Gordon. Were you drunk at your draft?
I'm with CowboyJay. What value do you think others will place on this guy? I'm still trying to figure out when the best time (if there is one) to trade for him is. I've got depth at RB already, but if I can get him cheap I'd rather have extra starting RBs on my bench instead of WR3-WR4 type players.
Primetime Players
Footballguy
Marc Levin
Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
My final point on this - do you want to add Gordon (or Wheatley, as a secondary example) to be your RB5, or do you want to add the backup to your starter (say, Musa Smith behind JLew or Toefield behind Taylor - or, best Tatum Bell behind Griffin).However you value those two positions for your RB5 is different TYPES of FF players - not better, not worse - neither way is right, neither is wrong - it is different TYPES of players an dplayers who see potential FF value different ways.To label someone a guppy, or noob, or "needs a new hobby" b/c they value Gordon over Emmitt Smith, or Wheatley, or Musa Smith, or Willie Green, or Jerome Bettis, or Tatum Bell OR VICE VERSA (attacking someone for valuing Bell over Gordon) is being EXCEEDINGLY pig-headed and short sighted
Primetime Players
Footballguy
Very true. If you draft well, you shouldn’t have much (if any) junk on your bench that you can sacrifice. I guess it depends on your situation. If you need a good 4th or 5th RB, then I say get him if you can, but if you had a good draft and drafted knowing that quality RBs are gold, you shouldn’t need him. If you have room on your roster, go get him and see how he pans out.
Aabye
Footballguy
I'd think that trying to trade Gordon at this point is probably a mistake. Right now there is more of a tendency to be worried about Gordon's downside than excited about his upside. After week 4 or so, after he's had a few weeks to solidify his spot in the lineup, his trade value will increase as he's perceived as a safer pick. Even if he performs up to some pretty conservative projections, his stability as Miami's #1 back should cause a significant rise in his perceived value.If Gordon is injured or isn't up to the task, you haven't lost much (assuming that you grabbed him off the WW).The high potential trade value of a somewhat established back is (in my opinion), worth the risk of holding onto him for a few weeks until there's less of a concern as to how the running situation in Miami will work out.I can't imagine that Gordon doesn't have more potential than almost any team's 18th - 20th rounder. Picking him up if he's available seems to be a no-brainer.My two cents.
FantasyDog
Footballguy
I would say exactly the opposite: if you're talking about a RB5, Bell is definitely worth more to you. Gordon is going to see the field for the Dolphins, but he's not going to see the field for your team, because his upside is so limited--while if Bell makes the Broncos' starting lineup, he'll probably move up your own team's depth chart in a hurry.If you can flip Gordon for another player you can use, then that's great, but if not, I think Bell is a better fit for your particular team.
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