Right...I would contend that Jam isn't worth a 1st round pick, but he's certainly worth a 2nd rounder (mid 2nd) even in my less enthusiastic estimation. So it would hardly be a leap for someone to take him late 1st. I just don't think there's any value in that move, particularly because I believe he has almost no shot at being a top 5 RB.
Correct. However, assuming (for example) that Tomlinson, Alexander, James, Holmes, McAllister, McGahee, Portis, Barber and K. Jones are all gone when you are picking at 1.10, where are you getting your "value"? My thinking is that unless you think a guy like Dillon, Tatum Bell, Julius Jones, etc. is going to have a much better year than most of the "experts" do, and that everyone but you/us/??? have them rated way too low, you're picking zero-sum value in almost every case in the first round.
Unless a "consensus" guy shockingly drops out of the top 6-8 picks for no reason, I think it's hard to say that you are drafting "good value" until you're out of the first round. I'm generally a believer in the old adage that you can rarely win your FFL leagues in the first round of a draft, but you can easily lose them. We're simply looking for the best value/player available at our slots...and the best value in many cases IS the zero-sum value play unless you've got ***** the size of coconuts and are willing to gamble your season on a Tatum Bell or Julius Jones.....