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Green94

Baseball Wagering

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Well its getting to be that time of the year again -- the marathon we all know as baseball.

Last year we had everything from MP's system plays to Futility's Pinpoint system. JTC has the Sawx covered on the East Coast and SLBD has the Dodgers covered on the West Coast. AB, Proposis, Hoard, and of course GM will be in this thread daily sharing their knowledge as well. Red occasionaly stops in to give us some winners. And every once in awhile Cappy drops in to talk #### about Freddy Garcia and also to post some plays :D

So let's start talking about the upcoming season and what you know about your respective teams. There is always a ton of player movement in baseball, so this will be a good place to catch up on all of the transactions in the offseason. Lets put together a season like we had last year, a lot of good capping and cashing a lot of tickets. :thumbup::bye:

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Green, I was looking at some WIN totals at my book and 1 jumped out:

Angels 87.5

I peg them for over right away. Am I off?

White Sox are 91.5 and I think they are actually improved.

Indians are 87.5 as well.

With as bad as the Central is, dont you bet over for both White Sox and Indians and you will undoubtedly win 1 of them and a very good shot at winning both?

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Green, way to step it up and lead us into the summer season. I am really looking forward to it.

$$$$$$$$$$$

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:popcorn:

I am really looking forward to this year.

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:thumbup: (Capella never should have been mentioned)

:lmao:

GB Cappy - His reverse jinx sealed the White Sox fate last year :thumbup:

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Green, I was looking at some WIN totals at my book and 1 jumped out:

Angels 87.5

I peg them for over right away. Am I off?

White Sox are 91.5 and I think they are actually improved.

Indians are 87.5 as well.

With as bad as the Central is, dont you bet over for both White Sox and Indians and you will undoubtedly win 1 of them and a very good shot at winning both?

Why is the Central so bad? If Detroit makes a progression (which I don't think they will) this year they could potentially have 4 teams over/around .500. The AL West is what is going to be bad.

I do like the Angels & Sox-

Speaking of the Tigers, their Under 79 wins holds some value IMO. Yes they get to play the Royals a ton but they also have 18/19 games against the Sox/Tribe/Twins. One of these teams would mostly likely have to drop off for the Tigers to hit that. While the Twins would probably be the likely choice, I just don't see them being much worse than last year. The Twins pitching will still be top notch, so even if the hit for jack#### like last year, they still should be around .500.

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Green, I was looking at some WIN totals at my book and 1 jumped out:

Angels 87.5

I peg them for over right away. Am I off?

White Sox are 91.5 and I think they are actually improved.

Indians are 87.5 as well.

With as bad as the Central is, dont you bet over for both White Sox and Indians and you will undoubtedly win 1 of them and a very good shot at winning both?

:bye: Pat

I think the Central will be a little better than people think because I think the Twins have a legitimate shot of putting up a fight this year. These three teams should pound on each other all year which could make those team totals a little scary. The Tigers are always good for some wins within the division as well. We know how bad the Royals will be, so we can leave them out of the discussion.

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Green, way to step it up and lead us into the summer season. I am really looking forward to it.

$$$$$$$$$$$

Let's give the books another beating this year, JTC. :thumbup:

ETA - I stole your dollar sign idea for the subtitle :ph34r::bye:

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The tigers always play the tribe tough - i actually think that the Twins, tribe and sox ae going to beat up on one another. I also think the AL east will be more competitive with Leo Mazzone now tutoring that young baltimore staff and toronto having been very active in the free agent market. I would not be surprised at all to see either boston or ny fourth in that division after the first few weeks - that is not going to stay that way, but I would not be suprised if one of those teams (bos or ny) finishes in third in the division ( and this is coming from a NYY homer living in Cleveland); I will check team win totals tonight when not @ work and report back;

Does RS still have his dog system page in effect? That was $ for the first month last year before evening out. I think it was $ because the books and public had not yet adjusted to the surprise team or two that happens every year. i cashed many a ticket last spring on the chi sox as dogs. It probably helps that i am also a rotisierre baseball dork with two drafts to get ready for so I feel like I have a good handle on which pitchers are primed for a good year and which are pretenders. I plan on working the dog system hard for the first month or so before it evens out.

Nice open Green

GLTA

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:lmao: at the spreads in the WBC

You mean these?

Thu 3/9

Dominican Republic -7.5 +100

10:00 AM 928 Italy +7.5 -110

Thu 3/9 929 Venezuela -7.5 -113

05:00 PM 930 Australia +7.5 +103

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:lmao: at the spreads in the WBC

You mean these?

Thu 3/9

Dominican Republic -7.5 +100

10:00 AM 928 Italy +7.5 -110

Thu 3/9 929 Venezuela -7.5 -113

05:00 PM 930 Australia +7.5 +103

:eek::yes::lmao:

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Any thoughts on Cuba/Japan tommorow night?

As of now there is no line at betjamaica.

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:thumbup: (Capella never should have been mentioned)

<_< I made you some money last year.

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:thumbup:  (Capella never should have been mentioned)

<_< I made you some money last year.

This is true.

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Last year we had everything from MP's system plays to Futility's Pinpoint system. JTC has the Sawx covered on the East Coast and SLBD has the Dodgers covered on the West Coast. AB, Proposis, Hoard, and of course GM will be in this thread daily sharing their knowledge as well. Red occasionaly stops in to give us some winners. And every once in awhile Cappy drops in to talk #### about Freddy Garcia and also to post some plays :D

My contribution was that forgetable? :cry::kicksrock:

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I guess I'll blackdot this. Beisbol is tough. Never really like doing anything but totals+side teasers as they tend to be more correlated in baseball than football IMO. Everyone has to have a loss leader somewhere right? Better than the WNBA.

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Last year we had everything from MP's system plays to Futility's Pinpoint system.  JTC has the Sawx covered on the East Coast and SLBD has the Dodgers covered on the West Coast.  AB, Proposis, Hoard, and of course GM will be in this thread daily sharing their knowledge as well.  Red occasionaly stops in to give us some winners.  And every once in awhile Cappy drops in to talk #### about Freddy Garcia and also to post some plays :D

My contribution was that forgetable? :cry::kicksrock:

I still have your dog system program in my favorites. Will it be running again this year? I thought it was awesome.

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Last year we had everything from MP's system plays to Futility's Pinpoint system.  JTC has the Sawx covered on the East Coast and SLBD has the Dodgers covered on the West Coast.  AB, Proposis, Hoard, and of course GM will be in this thread daily sharing their knowledge as well.  Red occasionaly stops in to give us some winners.  And every once in awhile Cappy drops in to talk #### about Freddy Garcia and also to post some plays :D

My contribution was that forgetable? :cry::kicksrock:
I still have your dog system program in my favorites. Will it be running again this year? I thought it was awesome.
Well I won't take credit for the dog system (MP posted links describing it), but I did automate it. I'll have to fire it up here soon and make sure it's 2006-ready. I would imagine MP would be first to say it's probably not very worthwhile within the first month of the season, so no hurry.

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I'll be running an umpire system for totals this year, just to see if I can actually post a profit.

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Last year we had everything from MP's system plays to Futility's Pinpoint system.  JTC has the Sawx covered on the East Coast and SLBD has the Dodgers covered on the West Coast.  AB, Proposis, Hoard, and of course GM will be in this thread daily sharing their knowledge as well.  Red occasionaly stops in to give us some winners.  And every once in awhile Cappy drops in to talk #### about Freddy Garcia and also to post some plays :D

My contribution was that forgetable? :cry::kicksrock:
I still have your dog system program in my favorites. Will it be running again this year? I thought it was awesome.
Well I won't take credit for the dog system (MP posted links describing it), but I did automate it. I'll have to fire it up here soon and make sure it's 2006-ready. I would imagine MP would be first to say it's probably not very worthwhile within the first month of the season, so no hurry.

actually - i made more $ in April than any other month last year playing the dog system - it does require you to know something about the pitcheresthat truly belong in the top 30 and those that do not. Being a rotisierre dork I'd like to think I have a reasonable idea about that kind of thing. I think the system was great in April because Vegas had not yet figured out who were the year's surprises and therefore I was able to get good value on, for example, the Chicago White Sox as dogs numerous times. Not that I had figured the CWS to win the series either mind you, just playing the dogs while they were still undervalued. I will make an effort to post these system plays like I did last year at least for the first month - IIRC the dog system got crushed in May and was a small money maker the rest of the way. RS - the sooner ya get that up and running the better IMHO ( ie - I will not need to spend as much time working the system with good ol' fashion pen and paper) See ya'll in a couple of weeks.

AB

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I'll be running an umpire system for totals this year, just to see if I can actually post a profit.

I like to know what this entails as I'm interested in capping umps this year as well. I'm looking into more umps this year and more in depth stats (rather than your basic ERA and WHIP etc.), but I need to start building my database for it now and with no laptop access I'm kind of stuck here.

I really don't know how much baseball I'm really going to be doing though - it's just too much of a grind for me.

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I'll be running an umpire system for totals this year, just to see if I can actually post a profit.

I like to know what this entails as I'm interested in capping umps this year as well. I'm looking into more umps this year and more in depth stats (rather than your basic ERA and WHIP etc.), but I need to start building my database for it now and with no laptop access I'm kind of stuck here.

I really don't know how much baseball I'm really going to be doing though - it's just too much of a grind for me.

Both statfox & covers have umpire pages that show their YTD records on the over/under. Early in the year I was thinking of using last years stats since ump tendicies should remain fairly constant year to year. I plan on charting a few days before committing any money to it.

link

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:popcorn:

Hows yoo guys doin?

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I'll be running an umpire system for totals this year, just to see if I can actually post a profit.

I like to know what this entails as I'm interested in capping umps this year as well. I'm looking into more umps this year and more in depth stats (rather than your basic ERA and WHIP etc.), but I need to start building my database for it now and with no laptop access I'm kind of stuck here.

I really don't know how much baseball I'm really going to be doing though - it's just too much of a grind for me.

Both statfox & covers have umpire pages that show their YTD records on the over/under. Early in the year I was thinking of using last years stats since ump tendicies should remain fairly constant year to year. I plan on charting a few days before committing any money to it.

link

Yeah, that's what I thought. I'm sure you remember our baseball disucssion at CAP about it. They say to adjust a half run either way for umps that favor one way or the other, so in general it's not that big of an advantage. Also, in my book I just got, they have umpire profiles for every umpire. One doesn't like Larussa, one doesn't like home teams, certain umps are just horrific, etc.

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,Mar 20 2006, 08:26 AM]:popcorn:

Hows yoo guys doin?

:bye:

May your boys have better luck in their title defense than My Sox did ;)

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,Mar 20 2006, 08:26 AM]:popcorn:

Hows yoo guys doin?

:bye:

May your boys have better luck in their title defense than My Sox did ;)

:thumbup::banned:

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1 unit on Cuba tonight. :popcorn:

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1 unit on Cuba tonight. :popcorn:

WTF :confused:

Are the Cubans all thinking about the plan to defect later tonight.

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Cuba/Japan may hit the over in the first inning.

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I put some down on the Diamondbacks to win the NL West at +600. I think this is anyones to win so why not throw on my team.

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Less than 1 week until opening day :excited::banned:

:pickle:

Ordered Extra Innings today

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Less than 1 week until opening day :excited:  :banned:

:pickle:

Ordered Extra Innings today

:thumbup: It's such an easy buy. $160 for 50+ games a week. They've actually expanded how many games they show in the last few years. The only thing that suxors is the Phillies are blacked out with no alternative to DTV subscribers :angry:

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,Mar 27 2006, 10:16 AM]

Less than 1 week until opening day :excited::banned:

:pickle:

Ordered Extra Innings today

:thumbup: It's such an easy buy. $160 for 50+ games a week. They've actually expanded how many games they show in the last few years. The only thing that suxors is the Phillies are blacked out with no alternative to DTV subscribers :angry:

GB not having anything blacked out but an occational Braves game here in Memphis.

Agreed that it's a no brainer. $40/month (for 4 months) to get to watch the Red Sox (and whoever the hell else I wanna watch) every single night that I'm home :thumbup:

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Alright boys, I propose we do the following. Let's comb over our notes, papers and sites and see if we can't pinpoint some under the radar pitchers who might offer good value at the window early on. There's a great thread at Caseace that does just this and I added my contribution there today. Thoughts on the following would be apprecaited and I hope you guys have a list to add as well.

Carlos Sivla MIN - While Santana commands most of the attention (rightfully so) for the Twins, Silva did something rather astounding last year. In 188IP, he gave up a total of NINE walks. He had solid numbers across the board last year with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP - good for 5th in the AL in both categories. If the Twins could improve slightly offensively this year, a guy like Silva could benefit greatly. Considering their stellar bullpen and Silva's excellent command, I think he's backable in spots and will look to bet him this year.

Kameron Loe TEX - Real young kid put together a very decent campaign in the 2nd half of 2005 with very little fan fare. He started 8 games and finsished the year with a respectable 3.42 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Considering where he pitches, that's damn good. He's added a change up to his arsenal which features a sterling slider and an above average sinker ball. He's had a good spring for Texas and will open as their 4th starter. The Rangers tend to start out hot and fade late, so jump on Loe early as he could get great run support and pitch well to win some early games before wilting in the summer.

Brandon Claussen CIN - Hate the park he pitches in and he makes Charlie Sheen look steady at times, but you can't argue with his power. He throws very hard and can strike guys out. He's got 19Ks this spring and an ERA of 3.60. He won 10 games last year - his first full year in the rotation. I'd prefer to back him on the road, but will look to bet him especially during day games where his splits were fantastic. 4-2 with a 3.00 ERA. Walks too many guys, but with a potent lineup behind him, he could get some cheap wins and will also be the kind of pitcher that dominates a game here and there, fanning several in the process. Very young, I expect his command to get better. Just beware when he's at home and remember that this bull pen sucks like a hooker with a thirst for protein.

Jason Vargas FLA - Another young guy (see a trend here?) who is having a sensational spring with 18 strikeouts in 21 innings pitched and an ERA of 2.57. He was awesome at times late last year and will certainly be fun to watch. Hard to get too excited considering the lineup behind him and a bullpen that is far from good, but he seems to have the kind of stuff that could carry a team for 9 innings. Is he a poor poor man's Felix Hernandez? I know this - I'm going to bet him if the price is right.

Kyle Davies ATL - It's all but a foregone conclusion that he's going to make the rotation in Atlanta as his performance this spring has been light's out and the team is looking to shop John Thomson. His ERA is 0.64 and his breaking ball has danced nicely to couple a 95 MPH fastball. Behind Hudson, Smoltz and Sosa, Davies will have good matchups to take advantage of and even if he's not a dog, he could be a very intriguing slight favorite to lay coin on. Had some very solid starts last year when he was forced into action before he was ready, but like any young pitcher, struggled at times too. his overall numbers weren't pretty, but he flat out controlled some games last summer too.

Justin Verlander DET - The second of Detroit's young studs in the making is going to be their 5th starter while Zumya (sp?) heads to the pen. Having a great spring thus far with an ERA of 3.37 and 16K's in 18IP. Having said that, his BB total is more than a worry and betting him won't always be fun to watch. But Leyland should calm him down and coax the most out of him. I think he'll offer some incredible value this summer and I'll take a shot on him here and there.

Guys I want to look at a little more:

Dewon Brazleton - having a great spring for an uber pitcher friendly team in San Diego. Flamed out in Tampa, but could put it together for the Padres. I think he's their 5th starter now?

Brandon Backe - This guy gets more camera attention that the bastard child of Jessica Simpson and Britney Spears considering his mediocre (at best) MLB career. That said, I think he's slated to start for the Astros and as bad as he can be, he can also pitch some gems (remember his post season performances in 2004?). Supposedly, he's worked on some mechanics in the off season and added a new pitch, but he got lit up the other day in ST.

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